IREIT Global is going to Spain! Excelente!

In early October, I shared my reasons for significantly increasing my investment in IREIT Global.

In that blog, I also said:

"I do not know for sure whether the new management team is going to grow the REIT but it is a reasonable assumption that CDL would not have invested so much in the REIT if they had expected it to stagnate."

Well, IREIT Global is growing.

Yesterday, on 7 December 2019, IREIT Global did a presentation on a proposed acquisition of office buildings in Spain.

It is a portfolio of four freehold multi-tenanted office buildings in Spain, two in Madrid and two in Barcelona.

A joint venture between IREIT Global and Tikehau Capital, the REIT will have a 40% interest.

Total cost of IREIT Global's 40% interest in the joint venture is 57.6 million Euros.

IREIT Global will be funding the purchase of its share initially with the help of a bridging loan from CDL.

The loan has a tenure of 18 months and bears an interest rate of 3.875% above EURIBOR per annum.

Although EURIBOR rates are negative, the effective interest rate of the bridging loan is still pretty high.

I estimate it to be about 3.6%.

12 months EURIBOR rate is now negative 0.269%.

Source: EURIBOR rates






I feel that the bridging loan is pricey but it is the price we pay for speed as it has been stated that the acquisition requires speed and execution certainty.

No dilly dallying, please.

Buy it before someone else does kind of thing.

Maybe.

Anyway, IREIT Global will have to look into refinancing the bridging loan once the acquisition is a done deal.

The REIT should be able to secure a loan with a lower interest rate.

After all, the REIT actually refinanced at a lower interest rate of 1.5%, down from 2% not too long ago.






Moving along.

As an investor for income, I am particularly curious about the REIT's DPU after the acquisition.

Fully funded with debt, IREIT Global's 40% share of the acquisition will be mildly DPU accretive but gearing level will increase rather significantly from 36.5% to 42.9%.

If funded with a mixture of debt and equity, the exercise will become DPU dilutive while the gearing level will increase only slightly from 36.5% to 37.6%.

However, if the REIT should refinance the bridging loan successfully, post acquisition, there should be a positive impact on DPU.

It might be a small positive impact but it should be positive, nonetheless.

With IREIT Global's distribution yield already relatively high, realistically, it would be difficult to acquire without some yield dilution, especially in Germany where property prices are rising relatively quickly.

As rents are not rising nearly as quickly, the NPI yields are being compressed relatively rapidly.

This, I guess, is why the acquisition being presented here is for a portfolio of Spanish properties.

Spain is a weaker economy compared to Germany but the Spanish economy is still growing and unemployment is coming down.

The overall occupancy rate of the four freehold multi-tenanted properties being acquired is 80.9%.

So, there is much room for the management to work on filling unlike the REIT's German properties.

As the passing rents are lower than the market rate, we could also see positive rental reversions over time.

Of course, diversification to reduce concentration risk sounds like a good idea too.

Overall, I like the acquisition.

Excelente!

Chop chop.

Get it done.

Then, refinance the relatively expensive bridging loan.

If there is going to be any equity fund raising to do this, I would like for it to be a rights issue instead of a private placement.

The loan isn't a large one and I believe a 1 for 10 or a 3 for 20 rights issue, depending on the pricing of the rights, should be sufficient.

I am confident of IREIT Global's potential to grow well and I want to share in the benefits.

"Boquerón que se duerme, se lo lleve la corriente."

Translation:
"People who do not act fast will not enjoy benefits or will lose the opportunity."

Source: Spanish proverbs.








Related post:
3Q 2019 passive income: IREIT Global.

Recently published:
Eagle Hospitality Trust: His plight and my philosophy.

IREIT Global's announcement:
Proposed Acquisition Of Four Office Buildings Located In Spain.

Quek Leng Chan ups stake in Guocoland. Is AK buying? (How much exposure to property developers does AK have?)

Someone asked me if I would be increasing my investment in Guocoland recently as it is still trading at a big discount to NAV.

In fact, he also asked if I would be increasing my exposure to the property sector since interest rates look like they will stay low for some years to come.

Although I like undervalued investments, there is always the possibility of such investments staying undervalued for an extended period of time.

Some readers might have noticed that this is usually the case with property developers.






My preference is, therefore, to invest in property developers that are able and have shown a willingness to reward shareholders with meaningful dividends.

The wait can be a long one and being paid while we wait makes it more affordable for most people.

Guocoland is a pretty good fit.

Since becoming a shareholder of Guocoland, I have received three rounds of 7c DPS.

Dividend yield is about 3.8%.

That is pretty decent for a property developer.








I became a shareholder of Guocoland in 2017.

That was when I noticed persistent insider buying and decided to do an incomplete analysis.

Then, I decided to invest in Guocoland which was trading at a hefty discount to valuation. 

Well, there is more insider buying now.

Following recent purchases, Mr. Quek Leng Chan's stake in Guocoland increased to almost 72%.

Although paying a price of $2.05 a share is more than 10% higher compared to what we paid back in 2017, the price is still a big discount to the NAV of $3.47 a share.






I am quite happy to hold on to my investment in Guocoland but I won't be adding now.

Reason?

Although individually my investments in property developers are not big enough to be in my list of largest investments, collectively, they are.

So, which property developers am I invested in?

They are:

1. Guocoland
2. Ho Bee Land
3. Hock Lian Seng
4. OUE
5. Perennial Holdings
6. Tuan Sing
7. Wing Tai

(If you want to read my past blogs about these entities, click on their names above as they are hyperlinked.)






Based on market value, together, they probably account for a sizable chunk of my investment portfolio.

For a retiree like me, I feel that is enough exposure to property developers.

For sure, I do not know when value would be unlocked and this unknown makes limiting the total investment exposure to 10% of my portfolio or lower sensible.

What if value is not unlocked in my lifetime?

Hmmm...






Although I am not interested in increasing my exposure to property developers, I have increased my investment in the property sector by putting more money into the following business entities not too long ago:

1. IREIT
2. Centurion
3. Accordia Golf Trust

(If you want to read my past blogs about these entities, click on their names above as they are hyperlinked.)






It should be obvious that the ability to generate a meaningful recurring income stream has always been an important consideration for me.

It has become more so as I grow more settled into my early retirement.

Of course, I am only doing what makes sense to me.

Others have to do what makes sense to them.

Oh, totally unrelated, I watched the following video by CPFB and had a good laugh:





Related post:
Largest investments updated (4Q 2019).

Largest investments updated (4Q 2019).

From my last couple of blogs, readers would be able to get an idea of what might have changed in my portfolio.


Since the last blog, however, I have made another significant investment or, more accurately, reinvestment.

What am I talking about?


Clue:

Some readers might remember that I reduced my investment in Wilmar significantly in 3Q 2019 in the month of July, booking a pretty decent capital gain in the process.

Wilmar lost its position as one of my largest investments in 3Q 2019 as a result of that move.


I explained that the move was based on technical analysis (TA) and not because I thought Wilmar was no longer a fundamentally good investment.

That meant I would be building up my investment in Wilmar again when the time is right.

I still like Wilmar as an investment today and if you are curious as to the reasons, you might want to read the following:

1. 3Q 2018 passive income: Wilmar.

2. Accumulating Wilmar...

My investment thesis remains, more or less, unchanged.

Wilmar is an amazing business that has gone unappreciated for a long time.

With the IPO of its Chinese subsidiary in the works, Mr. Market is beginning to appreciate the value that is locked within Wilmar.

Since reducing my investment significantly in July, I have been waiting to increase my investment in Wilmar again. 

Although I wondered if we could see $3.10 or even $3.00 a share again, using TA, I decided that buying at $3.60 a share or lower might be a good idea.








This is because even though Wilmar's share price has retreated, the 200 days moving average (200dMA) in its chart is still rising.

The 200dMA is a long term moving average and as it is rising, it should provide a stronger support.

The rising 200dMA is at $3.54, approximately.

Of course, TA simply shows us where supports could be found.






TA cannot tell us if the supports would be tested or not.

So, what to do?

Start buying at $3.60 a share, maybe.

TA also cannot tell us if the supports would hold or not.

So, what to do?

Make sure we don't throw in everything including the kitchen sink.

Anyway, informed by some simple TA, making use of Mr. Market's current depression, I significantly increased my investment in Wilmar so that it is again one of my largest investments.

So, together with Wilmar, what are my largest investments now?







$500,000 or more:
*CPF.

If you are laughing, I hope it is for the right reason.

Read:
Largest investments updated (3Q 2019).

From $350,000 to $499,999:
*AIMS APAC REIT.
(formerly
AIMS AMP Cap. Ind. REIT)

Nothing has changed here.

Yes, AK is so boring.





From $200,000 to $349,999:
*ComfortDelgro.
*Centurion Corporation Ltd.
*Accordia Golf Trust.
*Development Bank of Singapore.
*OCBC Bank.
*IREIT Global.

So, from having only two members, this group's membership has tripled in size, now boasting six members.

Increasing my investments in Accordia Golf Trust, DBS and OCBC meaningfully moved them up from the lower bracket.

The fourth new member, IREIT Global, made the biggest jump as it makes its first appearance in this list by skipping the lower bracket altogether.

Read related posts at the end of this blog if all these sound new to you.

From $100,000 to $199,000:
*Ascendas H-Trust.
*Wilmar International.

Wilmar returns as one of my largest investments by joining the lowest bracket in the list.

If Mr. Market continues to feel depressed about Wilmar, I would probably be buying more.



Now, remember, when we invest, we have to take into consideration our circumstances and not "suka suka" ride on other's coattails.

What?

Cannot find AK's coattails?

That is because AK doesn't wear a coat lah.

La la la la... lah. ;p

On a serious note, remember to "eat bread with ink slowly."

Don't know how?

Read:
How to have peace of mind as an investor?

Yes, peace of mind is priceless.





Related posts:
1. 3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.
2. 3Q 2019 passive income: IREIT.

3Q 2019 passive income: IREIT Global.

I shared my passive income numbers in my last blog and also revealed that I significantly increased my investment in IREIT Global.

Now, I will explain why I chose to increase my investment in IREIT Global in 3Q 2019:

1. It seems to me that the negative interest rate will persist for some time to come as ECB just made it even more negative recently which means that IREIT Global's low cost of debt will remain low and, if we recall, the REIT actually refinanced at a lower interest rate of 1.5%, down from 2% not too long ago.

See:
ECB negative interest rates deepen.





2. Although the REIT used to have a relatively high gearing ratio which might have worried some investors, it has come down to 36%, but I have said before that what was more important was its interest cover ratio which was very healthy. 

Now, related to point #1 on deepening negative interest rates and refinancing at a lower interest rate, IREIT Global has an even higher interest cover ratio of about 11x which, if I am not mistaken, no other REIT here is able to match and compared to gearing ratio, this matters more.





3. CDL bought a 50% stake in IREIT Global's manager earlier this year in April and they also bought a big chunk of IREIT Global itself at around 75.5c a unit, if I remember correctly, which we could use as a guide as to what CDL might have thought as a fair price to pay for an investment in IREIT Global.

4. With CDL and Tikehau (the joint-owners of the REIT's manager) having relatively meaningful stakes in IREIT Global aligns their interests with those of other, including minority, unit holders which helps to give me assurance that they would most likely not do anything value destructive as they would end up harming themselves too in such an instance.





5. The original 8% distribution yield requirement was based on a 100% payment of the REIT's distributable income but the REIT has been paying out only 90% which reasonably means a 7.2% distribution yield today would be the lowest that is acceptable to me. 

Any higher distribution yield simply makes the REIT more attractive which was very much the case when I added to my investment as its unit price plunged in 3Q 2019.

I shall not detail the REIT's numbers, portfolio and future direction here because the REIT did a presentation to investors just last month and the slides can be accessed on their website. 

Look for:
SGX-DBSV-REITAS Corporate Day Investor Presentation In Bangkok. 
(Published on 5 Sep 19.)





I believe that IREIT Global has great potential and it seems that conditions are right for it to grow.

Of course, I do not know for sure whether the new management team is going to grow the REIT but it is a reasonable assumption that CDL would not have invested so much in the REIT if they had expected it to stagnate. 

To be quite honest, the status quo is not all that bad either as IREIT Global is a relatively stable and attractive investment for income in the S-REIT universe.






By having a much larger investment in IREIT Global which has shown reliability and predictability in its DPU over the years, the income investing focus of my portfolio should strengthen and this should result in higher passive income generation in the future.

For those who might have missed it, I am providing the link to my passive income numbers for 3Q 2019 below.

Related post:
3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.

3Q 2019 passive income: Numbers.

It has been a while since my last blog and I hope everyone is doing well.

So, now that 3Q 2019 has ended, an update on what I did in the quarter is due.

Well, in terms of my investments, apart from collecting dividends, regular readers know that I sold quite a big chunk of my portfolio earlier in July.

See:
Sell into the rally...

And for what it was worth, I also provided an update on the largest investments in my portfolio.

See:
Largest investments...






Then, after that, I was mostly just adventuring in Neverwinter and taking it easy in RL (which stands for "real life"), collecting dividends from my RL investments.

Although readers should hopefully be used to the rather long breaks from blogging I have been taking as I spend more time on other activities, I would like to reiterate that this is the new normal.

If you leave comments in my blog and expect a timely response, you could and very likely be disappointed.






In fact, for the whole month of October, Neverwinter will be running the Neverember Recruitment Event which will reward the leveling of any new character created during the event.

This is not only a perfect opportunity for anyone who wants to give Neverwinter a try, it is also great for veterans to create new characters (up to a maximum of two) to get their hands on the rewards which are very generous, rewards which would have cost RL money to buy otherwise.

The Level Cap in Neverwinter is 80 but to get all the rewards from the event, we only have to hit Level 59, if I understand the event correctly.

So, I will be extra busy in Neverwinter as I will level two new characters to Level 59 and still be adventuring with the three Level 80 characters I have now.

Neverwinter is free to play (F2P) and lots of fun for anyone who enjoys the High Fantasy genre and is "giam siap" (not offering a translation for this) like AK.

Can barely see the word "Shift" and the letter "W" on my keyboard. 
Bad AK! Bad AK! ;-p

Anyway, total passive income from my investments in REITs and non-REITs in 3Q 2019:

S$ 31,789.91

This amount would have been much higher if I did not reduce my investments and rather significantly too in SingTel, Wilmar and ComfortDelgro back in July.

I say this as a matter of fact to explain why the amount is smaller than what some might be expecting and not because I regret my decision to realise gains, reducing investment exposure pretty significantly in the process.

After all, the capital gains from reducing exposure to the businesses mentioned were much more than what I would have received from them in dividends otherwise.








Also, it is almost never a bad thing to have more cash as it gives us options which include the ability to pounce on opportunities when they present themselves.

As it turned out, opportunities knocked in the following months as stock prices experienced a correction.

I added to my investments in a few businesses such as:

1. DBS

2. OCBC

3. ComfortDelgro (CDG)

The list doesn't end here, of course. 





As Centurion's stock price and Accordia Golf Trust's (AGT) unit price languished, I also added to my investments in these entities as my investment theses are unchanged.

I believe that they are undervalued and it doesn't matter to me that if their share or unit price continue to move sideways as long as they keep generating meaningful income for me.

In 3Q 2019, I also took part in CRCT's rights issue, taking up my entitlement and applying for excess rights at $1.44 a unit.

This bumps up my investment in the REIT but not by much as it is a relatively small rights issue.

Finally, I substantially increased my investment in IREIT Global as its unit price declined rather significantly.





I shall not explain my decisions to increase my investments in DBS, OCBC, CDG, Centurion or AGT again.

Anyone who is interested to find out more or in having a refresher can refer to my earlier blogs on these entities.

As for CRCT, I blogged about why I thought it was a well run REIT with a relatively attractive yield before.

See:
CRCT added in Jan 2017.

My view has not changed and there is no reason why I wouldn't take part in its relatively small rights issue to help expand its AUM.





I have also blogged about IREIT Global before and why I avoided its IPO.

This was back in 2015.

See:
IREIT: What is a more realistic distribution yield?



Of course, all investments are good at the right price and I invested in IREIT later on when its unit price declined sharply.

Adding to my investment in IREIT Global in 3Q 2019 meant paying a higher price than what I paid before, however.






Still, I chose to increase my investment in IREIT Global and I will share the reasons why in my next blog as this blog has become a bit too long.

I will try to do this within the next 24 hours because if I don't, I fear I might not do it once I seriously start to power up my two new characters in Neverwinter.

Yes, I know.

Bad AK! Bad AK!




For now, I will say that I am reasonably confident that all that I did to my investment portfolio in 3Q 2019 will better reward me in future.

What I did was consistent with my belief that investing for income is enriching and, so far, it has been the case for me.

Remember, if we do the right thing, everyone's life can be and should be better.

Investing for income can help us achieve financial security and, eventually, financial freedom.

If AK can do it, so can you!




You might also want to read:
1. Retirement adequacy 101.
2. Start with a plan to retire early.

3Q 2018 passive income (S-REITs).

In 2Q 2018, there was a bit of action in the S-REITs space for me and one of the things I did was to add to my investment in Starhill Global REIT at 64c a piece.

In 3Q 2018, I was ready to add to my investment in Starhill Global REIT if Mr. Market's pessimism should worsen.

However, Mr. Market felt better about the REIT's prospects and the unit price rebounded.






To understand why I bought more of Starhill Global REIT when I did and how it became one of my larger smaller investments, go to the related post at the end of this blog.

The top 3 income contributors from my investments in S-REITs in 3Q 2018 were:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT

2. First REIT

3. IREIT Global

I often get asked whether we should continue investing in S-REITs since interest rates are on the rise.

I am aware that this is really another way of asking what is going to happen to the unit prices of S-REITs in future.

I don't know how the prices will move in future.

I only know that investing in bona fide income producing assets has been rewarding and it should continue to be rewarding.






If we believe that real estate has intrinsic value, then, buying at a discount to valuation, we should have some margin of safety.

Also, we have to ask whether the management is honest and capable enough to unlock value for shareholders too.

Of course, S-REITs are not perfect nor are they the only tool available to investors for income.

We also want to be careful not to be overly reliant on S-REITs as the higher yield comes at a price.

Remember, S-REITs pay out 100% of their cash flow most of the time and have no retained earnings.

So, investing in S-REITs, we have to be prepared for the possibility of rights issues.

Those who are fully invested and dependent on S-REITs for income should beware.





This is especially if the dependence on S-REITs for passive income is absolute and critical.

"Absolute" means that these investors have no other sources of passive income.

"Critical" means that any reduction in passive income from S-REITs would be a life altering event for these investors.





Remember, how we invest and what we invest in should depend on our personal circumstances and what we hope to achieve.

It is never my way or the highway.

You should have a plan, your own plan.

However, to have a plan that works for you, you must know what you want and what you are capable of and willing to do.




For example, in middle of September this year, a reader asked me about investing in Soilbuild REIT again.

blazingruby60 said...
I remembered you mentioned that all investment is good investment at the right price.

looking at soilbuild i have sold after reading this article here and wondering would you consider buying soilbuild again at 58 cents?

considering soilbuild has ventured overseas to australia to acquire some properties and all.

thanks n cheers.






AK said... 
I was thinking about it but I decided not to invest in Soilbuild REIT now because

1. I already have a pretty large exposure to industrial property S-REITs which also have exposure to the Australian economy (AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Fraser Logistics Trust).

2. I would like to have a much bigger percentage of my portfolio in non-REITs to reduce reliance on S-REITs for income.

Of course, things could change in future. :)

Investing in S-REITs for income, we have to take in a bigger picture and, to be realistic, your picture could be quite different from mine.

My total 3Q 2018 passive income from S-REITs was:

S$ 19,884.80

AA REIT 10-year Anniversary 
- Celebrating 10 years of Partnership!

On a per month basis, it works out to be about S$6,628.00 a month.

Related post:
2Q 2018 passive income from S-REITs.

What do you need as an investor?

This conversation took place when IREIT Global's unit price declined to 71.5c after going XD not too long ago.

AK bought more.




And this was another conversation with another reader at around the same time, maybe, about 2 days apart:

Reader:
Hi AK, I'm on of your readers. I'd like to know what you think of IREIT Global, which I understand you have in your portfolio. 

Recently, the stock seems to have taken a beating after going ex-dividend. Some days the drop in stock price is on large volume. 

Do you think there's anything to be concerned about, now that there is new management?

Sorry if i contacted you via the wrong channel, couldn't find any email address on your page






AK:
I don't know why the price fell. 😉
I only know that I bought more because lower price means better value for me.

Reader:
Ok thanks, that's reassuring coming from you 🙂

AK:
Oh, I don't mean to reassure you or anything like that.
If you need reassurance from me, cham...
Know what you want. Know if something does the job for you.

See:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/02/would-ak-invest-in-ireit-global-today.html#comments
Would AK invest in IREIT Global today?




Reader:
Haha no I am planning to hold and not sell. But I find that your judgment is good so just wanted to check with you if there's anything I missed, be it in the results or whatever, that could be cause for concern

So that's what I mean by reassuring, I.e, no specific concerns and no specific reasons for the price decrease

AK:
I dunno everything de
We must accept that we dun hv perfect knowledge
which is why position sizing and war chest are important

See:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2015/02/how-to-have-peace-of-mind-as-investor.html
How to have peace of mind as an investor?

Reader:
Yeah that's true. Thanks for the advice 🙂

I only started to take charge of my portfolio one year ago.

So it's good to have someone like you that writes investing advice





AK:
I dun give advice de
BYHW

Reader:
I also invest in US stocks. So far I didn't notice any articles in your blog about US stocks. Do you have any position?

AK:
No lah. I dun have so much money. Singapore market very big for me liao.

Reader:
I'm new to investing so I have a lot to learn

AK:
All in good time. No rush.

So, what do you need as an investor? 

Do you need reassurance or something else?

Related posts:
1. Investor psychology and fear.
2. When to BUY, SELL or HOLD?