Do not fear the selldown.

It is safe to say that there is a lot of fear in the air. Palpable? Almost. What are we to do? Well, I am sure everyone has his or her own opinion as to the best strategy in such a situation.  Maybe, I shouldn't be so sure. So, what do I think? Well, I have been sharing my thoughts in this blog and what I now think is largely the same as before.

For a stock which is clearly in a downtrend, sell into strength at resistance.  It might be a lower high but it is still a high.  We don't want to sell at a low.  Then, wait patiently for it to form a base or to rebound and form a higher low.  It would be safer to take up a long position then.

Not all stocks are in a downtrend.  For stocks of businesses with strong fundamentals with their uptrends still intact, buying at supports is still the way to go. Look to the technicals for possible negative divergence as a warning sign.  Certain stocks might be rangebound and if the businesses have strong fundamentals, buying at the support of the trading range is what I would do.

Generally, our motivations for being in the stock market would determine the strategy that we adopt.  For me, I am primarily in the stock market to secure a passive income stream.  So, I would accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals which provide high yields. Examples are AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, Saizen REIT and SPH.

I also invest in growth stocks but these are generally not known for big dividend payouts and I invest in these with a view to trade.  Examples are Golden Agriculure and Healthway Medical.  Recently, I tried my hands at CapitaMalls Asia and lost some money, if you remember.

Do I think we are having a meltdown? Are we going into another recession or even a depression? I don't think so. Informed by Jim Rogers and Marc Faber, I have talked about the next crisis being a currency crisis and we are seeing the precursors of that crisis.  For now, I believe that the stock market will be going higher in time. Fiat currencies are not going to do a disappearing act.  Governments around the world will not allow a collapse.  So, in crises, we find opportunities.

There would be some people who want to sell away all their shares now, fearing a meltdown, keep their cash and wait.  There would also be those who are keeping all their shares, believing them to be good investments, and would be buying more shares at lower prices to average down.  In both instances, I would say, look to the technicals as we want to avoid selling at the lows or buying at resistance. We should not be afraid but we should stay cautious. Good luck to us all.

Related posts:
What are investors to do in downtrend?
A correction? An opportunity.

STI: Falling through the 200dMA.

My last post on the STI scared quite a few people, I imagine. Well, the STI has closed below the 200dMA on relatively high volume.  Failing to recapture the 200dMA support is bearish, of course.

STI decreases 0.8% to 2,753.51 at closing
Thursday, 20 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

The MACD continues to pull away downwards from the signal line, increasing the distance with the signal line when it looked as if it was just closing the distance in the last few sessions. The sell signal in the last session was confirmed.

The MFI continues forming lower highs and being some distance from oversold, it could continue moving downwards with little trouble.  The OBV is steadily declining. The 20dMA seems set to form a dead cross with the 100dMA in due course.

The low achieved today at 2,735 just touched the uptrend line before bouncing to close somewhat higher at 2,753.  Will the trendline support hold up tomorrow?

Looking at the weekly chart, we find the next support provided by the 50wMA at 2,720 points. The previous low was at 2,660 points. To keep a semblance of an uptrend, the next low formed by the STI should be higher than 2,660 points. Well, there is one day left to the week.  How the STI behaves tomorrow could very well determine the tone of the market next week.

Incidentally, the declining 100wMA is no longer at 2,425 points.  It is now at 2,400 points. A declining MA is not a very strong support.  That's for sure.

Related post:
STI at 2425 points?

Charts in brief: 19 May 10.

The STI declined to test and break 2,780 today. We will have to see if it bounces back to close above 2,780 tomorrow or if it would continue its downward path.  If it continues to decline, there is potentially much room to fall.  I am still staying cautious and waiting to see some signs of a stronger support holding before adding to my positions.

STI declines 2.5% to 2,774.54 at closing
Wednesday, 19 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Closing at $2.10 after gapping down today confirmed a lower high for this counter.  The downtrend is intact.  I am 100% divested. See how the volume expanded on a down day? Sell signal seen on the MACD. MFI and OBV have both turned down. More likely than not, this counter is continuing its downtrend.

SPH: Price continues moving downwards towards the 200dMA at $3.70.  If tested, will it hold? We can only wait and see.

Given the current bearish atmosphere in the global stock markets, it pays to take a longer term view in our investments.  To this end, take a look at the weekly charts.  A stronger support for SPH is actually at $3.60, where we find the rising 50wMA.

LMIR: 47c support has been taken out.  With price closing at 45c today, I drew Fibo lines to find the next supports.  It appears that 44c is only a minor support as suggested by candlesticks.  If the decline continues, next major support is at 42c. As seen in the weekly chart drawn yesterday, 41c is support provided by the 100wMA but as this MA is still declining, if conditions are bearish enough, we might see 40c tested.

I am staying sidelined and will wait for the dust to settle.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 18 May 10.

Charts in brief: 18 May 10.

Nice little up day for the STI. I am staying defensive and waiting to see if the support at 2,780 holds. Global stock markets' almost relentless climb upwards is experiencing a few much overdue stumbles and falls. Before the markets go higher, they could go lower.

Earnings upcycle not enough to lift STI, says CIMB
Tuesday, 18 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Another up day as price closed at $2.16.  MACD continues rising in negative territory.  MFI is rising towards 50%.  OBV is rising.  However, the negative divergence between volume and price movement is glaring.  As price rises, volume decreases.  The volume should ideally increase in order to have a sustainable move up in price.

$2.19, the bottom of the base formation in February is likely to be a strong resistance. If we use the exponential 50dMA, we see something very interesting. It is at $2.19.

The Exponential MA, or EMA for short, has more weight given to more recent data. This is useful when we want to gain some insight into shorter term psyche of market participants as more recent price movements are fresher in their collective memories. Will CapitaMalls Asia test $2.19? That, I do not know but I know I would be 100% divested if it does as the technicals favour further weakness.  I believe that short sellers would find $2.19 almost irresistable.

SPH: On Monday, it closed for first time in a long time below the 100dMA. Today, the attempt to recapture the 100dMA support failed. I would wait to see if the 200dMA is tested and if it holds in such an instance. The 200dMA is currently at $3.70.  If the 200dMA holds, I might buy some.

LMIR: I am taking a longer term view with this counter. I continue to like its high yield and low gearing. In the shorter term, there is no question that it is bearish even though the weakness is on relatively low volume. I am looking at its weekly chart to gain insights into its longer term technicals.

It would seem that 47c is an important support provided by candlesticks and the rising 50wMA. OBV is more or less static which, to me, suggests that most unit holders are long term investors. The MFI has been forming lower highs and is currently at 50% which could act as support. Would I buy at 47c? As a hedge, perhaps.  I won't throw in the kitchen sink because the lower highs in price since 11 January this year give me a feeling of unease. 44c, anyone?

Saizen REIT: The recent report by Saizen REIT's manager seems to have reassured investors and although we are not seeing any enthusiastic buying up, we are not seeing any desperate selling either. Fundamentally, there is increasing recognition that this REIT is heavily undervalued.

I mentioned before that the descending 100wMA is exerting some downward force on the price of this REIT and it was at 17c last week.  This week, it is lower and approaching 16.5c.  If we look at the weekly chart, we see that the resistance provided by the100wMA has been challenged.  This happened yesterday. 

The rising 20dMA and 50dMA should inevitably form golden crosses with the descending 100wMA. Fibo line projections show 150% at 20.5c and 161.8% at 21c.  These would be my immediate targets in a breakout scenario.

Related posts:
SPH: Another black candle day.
LMIR: 1Q 2010 results.
Saizen REIT: 3Q FY2010 results.

STI at 2,425 points?

What we have is a sea of red.  Sentiments have not been so bearish in a long time as the HSI sank below 20,000 points.  I continue to believe that any rebound that comes along in the near future should be an opportunity to reduce exposure in the stock market. This is more so for stocks which are clearly in a downtrend. Having said that, the STI is holding up rather well under all the selling pressure.

As the index retreats, the OBV declines. This is an obvious sign of distribution. The MFI has been forming lower highs and lower lows.  Positive buying momentum is lacking.  In the near term, the 2,780 level or so should be an important support.  This is confirmed by Fibo lines, the rising 200dMA as well as candlesticks.

Looking at weekly charts is sometimes very revealing. If we look at STI's weekly chart, we understand why it is more resilient than some other indices. We understand why the 2,780 level is an important support. 2,780 is also where we find the uptrend line and the flat 200wMA. If the longer term uptrend is to stay intact, 2,780 must not break. Will it break?  I cannot say for sure, of course, but the technicals are rather weak.

1. Volume has been rising as the index retreated in the past few weeks.

2. The high achieved in the week of 12 April was accompanied by a lower high on the OBV compared to the high achieved in the week of 4 January, telling us that there was less accumulation taking place in April. Similarly, the MFI was lacklustre on 12 April compared to where it was on 4 January.

Not all weekly MAs are uptrending.  The 100wMA is still declining and is currently at 2,425. The chances of the STI retreating further exist.  Much depends on whether 2,780 holds up. Could we see the STI at 2,425 in the coming weeks? Perhaps.

Charts in brief: 11 May 10.

STI opened higher but declined to close lower at the end of the day. The huge rallies in Europe and the US did not manage to lift Asian markets today, painting a picture of uncertainty with a bearish bias.

STI drops 0.8% to 2,857.67 at closing
Tuesday, 11 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: BDI higher at 3,707 today. MFI has just dipped into oversold region. OBV is flat.  Immediate resistance remains at 20c. Picture of low volume pullback continues. As the fundamentals are good, I would accumulate when the technicals give me the signal.

Golden Agriculture: CPO declined to close at RM2,505. This continues the downtrend. Things look pretty weak, technically. We have an engulfing black candle today which negated the morning star setup. Buy signal on the MACD has been negated as well. The rising 200dMA might be tested as a support soon if the weakness continues.

SPH: Opening at $3.95 only to move and close lower at $3.88 is bearish. What has been formed is a bearish piercing line pattern as the black candle declined to cover more than half of the previous day white candle. $3.95 is now burnt into the psyche of traders as an important resistance level due to the failure to move higher today.

In summary, for most counters, prices did not move higher and, so, I did not get to sell more at higher resistance levels with the exception of Healthway Medical which I managed to sell off most of my remaining shares at resistance.

I will continue to use any rebound to sell into strength, for stocks with weakening technicals.  I will accumulate when the technicals show signs of bottoming, especially for stocks of companies with sound fundamentals. The market is now a riskier place for long only investors like myself.

Dow 8500 Before 11,500:
Sell the Surge, Suttmeier Says
Posted May 10, 2010 09:47am EDT by Aaron Task
 


Related post:
Charts in brief: 10 May 10.

Charts in brief: 10 May 10.

The STI rebounded nicely today. Personally, I am making use of the rebound to reduce exposure. If the rebound continues tomorrow, I would lighten my portfolio further.

STI advances 2.1% to 2,880.48 at closing
Monday, 10 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: The BDI is in excess of 3,600 today! Good news for Courage Marine as it closed 1c higher at 20c but on very low volume. If Courage Marine is able to close at 21c or higher in the coming sessions, it would negate the bearishness seen in the last couple of weeks. We have a buy signal on the MACD but its reliability is suspect due to the very low trading volume. Wait and see.

Golden Agriculture: CPO at RM2,538 today means it is still in a downtrend which started in early March. Golden Agriculture staged a nice rebound with price piercing resistance provided by the 100dMA at 55.5c to touch a high of 56c before closing at 55c. Volume is also respectable.  We have a morning star set up, a 3 stick reversal pattern. The buy signal on the MACD is more credible in this instance. My overnight sell queue at 55.5c was done.  Let's see if 55.5c could be overcome and the resistance at 58c tested next.  58c, that's where I would queue to sell again.

SPH: MFI bounced off 50% support, forming a higher low. $3.90 resistance successfully taken out as price closed at $3.95. Volume is respectable and the price might go higher tomorrow to test the next resistance level at $4.03 gap resistance which coincides with the 20dMA. SPH remains the largest investment in a blue chip for me and I made use of the rebound today to offload some, locking in some gains. I might offload more tomorrow if its price goes higher.

CapitaMalls Asia: 4r1g buy signal on the MACD. MFI is turning up from the oversold region and the OBV is turning up too. We also have a valid morning star pattern although a weak one with volume very low on this up day.  There are various resistance levels next if the price continues to move up.  I would reduce exposure at these levels: $2.09 gap resistance, $2.12 support turned resistance and $2.15 declining 20dMA resistance.

Healthway Medical: MFI emerged from the oversold region. OBV continues to decline, suggesting that distribution is underway even though the counter has gone CD. I continue to queue at 15.5c to sell at resistance.

Saizen REIT: Quarterly results on 12 May 10, two days from now. Price closed at 16.5c today with technicals turning very positive. First off and a major development: the negative divergence between price and volume has been negated!  MACD is turning up towards the signal line as we see a buy signal. MFI's higher high is a given while the OBV suggests aggressive accumulation. The only negative is the descending 20dMA which seems poised to form a dead cross with the 50dMA.

Before the price could go higher, the descending 100wMA which is at 17c has to be overcome. This is a very long term MA and is likely to be a strong resistance. Let's see.

Good luck to all fellow Saizen REIT unitholders!

US Futures are looking very green now.  Looks good. :)

Related post:
Charts in brief: 7 May 10.

Charts in brief: 7 May 10.

Due to a suspected trading error, the US market was sent spiralling down 10 per cent at one stage and recovered to close the session at "just" more than 3 per cent down on Thursday. I can imagine the panic and the horror that shockwaved through the markets.

The technical rebound that quite a few amateur and professional chartists, independent and otherwise, opined would materialise yesterday for the Singapore market did not even get a chance.

STI drops 0.7% to 2,821.11 at closing
Friday, 07 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Healthway Medical: Announced a dividend of 0.12c and that sent the share price up 1c to close at 15.5c, the resistance provided by the 100dMA. This up day was not achieved on high volume. Not convincing. The MACD has turned up but still remains in negative territory.  MFI has turned up from the oversold region.  OBV has turned up too. Personally, I would sell at resistance. 15.5c is a fair price to reduce exposure. If the price rebounds to 16.5c, even better. The 20dMA is declining and looks set to form a dead cross with the 100dMA.

CapitaMalls Asia: A white spinning top and I am still hoping to reduce exposure at resistance. Might have to lower my expectations as the 20dMA declines rapidly. Would it rebound to $2.10? Maybe.

Courage Marine: Guess what.  The BDI has exceeded 3,400 yesterday.  Nice. Courage Marine sank below support yesterday and closed at 19c despite this fundamentally positive development. If it continues to decline in price to approximate 17.5c, I would be sorely tempted to add to my position. A possible triple bottom in the making then?

Golden Agriculture: MACD continues to decline in negative territory. Candlestick suggests a possible reversal signal. Resistance at 55.5c and 58c. I might sell some of my remaining stocks if a rebound takes place.

SPH: Started the day below the 100dMA but ended the day with a nice white candle. A rebound might send this counter through the immediate resistance at $3.90. A chance to offload some shares, perhaps.

FSL Trust: OBV's gradient is turning gentler. The sell off is ameliorating. MFI has gone flat in the oversold region. That the sell off has been extreme could be seen from how the candles formed in the last three days were all beyond the lower limits of the Bollinger bands.  A black hammer formed in the last session. A rebound on the way? Perhaps. If it happens, sell at resistance? That would be consistent with my practice.

Stocks slide anew, but it's still not a correction
Seth Sutel, AP Business Writer, On Friday May 7, 2010, 8:06 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market's wild ride may not be over yet.

The Dow Jones industrials whipsawed again Friday, a day after their largest one-day plunge. The average was down as much as 279 points in the morning, went briefly into the black around lunchtime, then ended with a loss of 139....

...The week's losses would put the market about well toward what analysts call a correction, usually defined as a drop of between 10 percent and 20 percent following a sustained rise. The Dow is now 7.4 percent off its recent high of 11,205.03 reached on April 26. The S&P 500 is down 8.7 percent from its recent high of 1,217.28 reached April 23...
 
Read full article here.
 
Related posts:
A correction? An opportunity.
Looking for value.
What are investors to do in downtrend?

Charts in brief: 5 May 10.

STI drops 1.4% to 2,860.31 at closing
Wednesday, 05 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Saizen REIT: FA is about value. TA is about price. Although this REIT is still severely undervalued, when negative sentiments rule, its price could get pushed down lower. My overnight buy queue at 16c was not done.  I am back in the queue.

For people who are hoping to make a quick buck, this might not be a good time to buy in. MFI has formed a lower low and OBV is down. MACD is under zero. All technicals are bearish except for a consistent picture of low volume pullback. If this counter tests the rising 200dMA at 15.5c, I would buy more.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Technically, this REIT is stronger than Saizen REIT.  MFI has formed higher lows and OBV has hardly declined.  The MACD is poised for a bearish crossover with the signal line though. The merged 50d and 100d MAs provide an important support at 21.5c and 23c remains the resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia:  Could this be a morning star setup? If the price opens above today's closing price of $2.08 and trades to close at or above $2.12 tomorrow, there is hope. The MFI is still in oversold territory but the decline has halted.  OBV is still declining and amidst the distribution activity, price managed form a white candle today.  This, I view as positive. In the event of a successful morning star setup, I expect initial resistance at $2.19.

SPH: Fourth consecutive black candle day. Black spinning top today. Looking at the MFI, we see that this counter was overbought for quite a while.  The index is now moving towards 50%.  50% on the MFI sometimes function as a support or resistance.  Together with the black spinning top today, which suggests indecision in a downtrend, we might see a rebound.  This is especially the case when price is now trading at the lower end of the Bollinger bands.

In the event of a rebound, the downturning 20dMA should provide a strong resistance.  This is at $4.04 now. The set up now might give rise to a morning star pattern just like for CapitaMalls Asia.  We will have to wait and see.  100dMA provides support at $3.79 and 200dMA provides support at $3.67 in the event of a further decline in price.

Golden Agriculture: MFI declines. OBV declines.  MACD has gone under zero. Overall, a bearish picture. The price managed to close at 55.5c, the support identified in previous TAs.  However, that this support was punctured today is a negative. If the 200dMA at 50.5c is tested, it has to hold.  If it does not, the uptrend is compromised. No prize for guessing where I am putting my buy queues.

Healthway Medical: Nothing much has changed apart from the fact that price touched a low of 14.5c today. 14c next? Possibly but the picture of low volume pullback is intact. We do not want to see the rising 200dMA breached.  This is currently just below 14c.  I might join the buy queue at 14c as a hedge.

FSL Trust: Heavy reduction in volume as price moved lower today to close at 52c. MFI has moved deeper into oversold territory.  OBV declined further. Another probable morning star setup. In the event of a reversal, strong resistance could be found at 60c.

I still see support at 51c in the event of a continuing decline. I bought some units today at 52c with a view that most of the heavy selling is done and over with.  Of course, I cannot say that the selling is over but any selling would probably be less vigorous from now on. The panic we see here approximate that of what was seen during the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008 and such panic, I believe, has to be overdone.

Courage Marine: Got my shares today at 20.5c and 20c.  MFI declining towards 50%. OBV declining. MACD moving towards zero and would probably go under. The best case scenario, technically, for this counter now is some sideway movement for some time to come, it would seem. What is left for me to do now is the easy part: hold.  Of course, I might buy more on any further weakness.

Related posts:
Charts in brief: 4 May 10.

Charts in brief: 4 May 10.

STI drops 1.5% to 2,901.18 at closing
Tuesday, 04 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Closed at 20.5c and I managed to get part of my overnight buy queue filled. In the buy queue again tomorrow. I am also in the queue to buy at 20c. Uptrend is still intact although weakened. The MACD is pulling away downwards from the signal line.  The weakness would probably continue.  I would draw attention to the volume.  It is shrinking with the weakening price.  A low volume pullback. Fundamentally, this is still one of the stronger shipping companies listed in Singapore.

Courage Marine acquires Capesize vessel as replacement
Tuesday, 04 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Sell signal on the MACD. Reversal hopes dashed. Reaching a low of $2.09 before closing at the round number of $2.10 suggests more weakness to come on an ugly black candle day. $2.07 is the next support.  I am not buying more for now.  I will wait and see if the subsequent support levels hold.  Buying at supports in an uptrend is the way to go but the downtrend here is clear.

Golden Agriculture: Went XD. Price closed at the 58c support.  Next support is at 55.5c. The MACD continues to move down and is approaching zero.  The MFI continues to decline below 50%, suggesting a lack of buying momentum. There is no heavy selling going on but continuing weakness seems likely.  This would likely put more stress on the current support level.

Healthway Medical: A picture of low volume pullback continues as price closed at 15c today. 138.2% Fibo is at 15c and the 150% Fibo approximates 15c.  This is a stronger support than 15.5c, surely.

MFI is creeping up in the oversold region which suggests that buying momentum is slowly improving.  OBV is slowly drifting down which suggests that there are people giving up and selling down the counter.  No big movement either way which suggests that slowly buying in as a hedge is quite safe.  The rising 200dMA is at 13.5c and this limits the downside risk.

Saizen REIT: MFI dipped further into oversold territory. OBV is flat. MACD has dipped under zero.  The weakness is obvious.  It is during times of pessimism when people are giving up that bargains are to be found.  The reasons for me to buy into Saizen REIT remain valid and I am still in the buy queue at 16c.

FSL Trust: This counter stood out like a sore thumb in my watchlist.  It was so red and sore that I had to do a midday analysis of it. Well, technically, the picture is so obviously negative that it is not necessary to say much. The merged 100d and 200d MAs provided a very important support at 60.5c.  Breaching that was a bad sign. The gapping down today and the subsequent huge ugly black candle suggests further weakness.

The question on people's minds is probably how low might it go? I don't know but I can tell that the next important support is at 51c or so.  This is derived from drawing two sets of Fibo lines.  I would wait and see if that holds, if it goes that low.

Fundamentally, FSL Trust's business is a simple one.  It has to ensure that its ships are leased out and it gets charter income.  After deducting all the expenses, it could distribute what is left to unitholders.  These days, it does not give out 100% as it keeps some to pay down its debts.  It is still paying out of its cash flow and not earnings.

The premature end to the two leases would cost the trust US$20,700 x 2 per day in charter income. This represents 15% of FSL's charter income. This might affect future DPU if the management does not have any contingency plans to reduce the negative impact of this development.

Related posts:
FSL Trust: A sinking ship?
Charts in brief: 3 May 10.


Posted May 04, 2010 10:07am EDT by Henry Blodget

Charts in brief: 3 May 10.

A brand new trading day in a brand new month.  It's May! Are you going to sell in May and go away?

STI drops 1% to 2,944.22 at closing
Monday, 03 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Black candle day on reduced volume. Price closed at gap support: $2.16. MFI is still in the oversold region. MACD is still below zero.  Momentum is negative but the distance between the MACD and signal line has narrowed. Reversal is looking dicey, again. See what happens tomorrow.  As usual, I would sell on the way up.  If price continues to decline, look to the next supports and see if they hold.  Would buy on weakness if supports hold as I still like the fundamentals of this counter.

Golden Agriculture: MFI and OBV flattened.  This counter is looking directionless. Having been trading beneath the 20dMA ,which has turned downwards, for four sessions in a row does suggest that a slow drift downwards is probable. 60c is the immediate resistance now.  If the support at 58c is taken out, the next support could be found at 55.5c as provided by the rising 100dMA.

Healthway Medical: Traded the whole day at one price only, 15.5c. The trading volume has been in decline as the price drifted lower.  This is a positive. The rising 100dMA should provide a relatively strong support at 15.5c.  The MFI is in oversold territory and I do not expect the price to crash.

The current price level is good to enter as a hedge for anyone who has been waiting to get in.  However, looking the MACD's behaviour of staying closely to the signal line in a parallel fashion as it goes deeper into negative territory suggests that this malaise might continue for some time. In case of further weakness, support would strengthen with every 0.5c decline in price.

Courage Marine: Price plunged after XD today. I like the fundamentals of the company and I see 20.5c as a strong support provided by the rising 50dMA and I would buy more at that level.  Price might continue to weaken to 20c and I would accumulate if it happens.  If price continues to lower towards 18c which is the price where the counter made a double bottom, I would load up more.  A triple bottom?  Maybe.  So, buy on weakness but I would not break the piggy bank.

Especially, I would like to draw attention to the declining volume as price weakens.  It is a low volume pullback.  This gives me greater confidence in my decision to accumulate on weakness.  The FA is good.  The TA lets us know entry prices which are considered fair.  It doesn't get any better than this for me.

Saizen REIT: Ongoing weakness seen here. 16c might be called upon as the support next and this, in my opinion, would be a strong support as we see three Fibo lines approximate 16c. They are the 138.2%, 150% and 161.8% Fibos. I am in the buy queue at 16c.

MFI is in the oversold region but the down trending OBV suggests some distribution activity.  So, it might be oversold but there are unitholders who are still willing to sell down.  Looking at the numbers, the suggestion is that smaller unitholders are the ones selling.  I do not see any high volume sell downs. For a REIT with almost a billion units currently in the market, a daily trading volume of 1m to 2m units is almost nothing.  If people are willing to sell cheaper, I am willing to buy cheaper.  At 16c, this would be almost a steal at a 60% discount to the last reported NAV!

Related post:
Charts in brief: 30 April 10.