Common but admirable people.

Once in a very long while, we might get to meet people whom we are truly impressed with and, even rarer, admire. Today, over lunch, I found such a group of people.

Although I have promised to keep the information shared with me confidential (and it will be so), I just want to share with readers how I am heartened that there are selfless people in Singapore who are doing good and trying to do more each day.

Some people have told me that what I am doing here in ASSI is noble, that I share freely with everyone what I know, that I spend so much time replying to emails and comments from readers. In fact, some might wonder why I do it?

Honestly, this blog was started mostly out of curiosity. I did not start with the primary intention to share the importance of financial freedom. What I thought and what I felt, I just blogged.

Over time, the number of readers grew and I realised many people enjoy reading my blogs. So, somewhere along the line, I decided that if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well. Therefore, I started to write more seriously in an effort to inspire readers and to share what I know. A metamorphosis took place.

However, even though blogging feels like a second full time job for me by now, I have a day job that pays me a salary. So, I don't need to blog for a living and it doesn't matter too much that I am not being properly compensated for the amount of time I put into blogging.

Now, these people I got to know over lunch today are in a different league. They are paid very little money in their day jobs which are to share the importance of financial freedom with as many people as possible on a regular basis. Money made through their group efforts is put aside to do good in future for the underpriviledged.

I feel that this is truly noble and admirable.

I think all of us know how easy it is to feel cynical about people in this materialistic world that we live in but as we strive to become better people, it is good to know that there are people who are also striving to make the world a better place and they are making huge sacrifices to do so.

In the past, some readers suggested to me how I could conduct inexpensive and simple courses on investing in the stock market. I have, of late, thought how this could possibly be a retirement activity. Now, I am inspired that if I should do this, I could also possibly do something for the charities.

This has been a heart warming day for me.

Perennial China Retail Trust: DPU 1.96c.

PCRT declared a DPU of 1.96c that will go XD on 21 February 2013. It is payable on 18 March 2013. My long position initiated at 47.5c a share about half a year ago is very much in the black.

I have readers asking me whether this REIT is a good investment for income but this is not a REIT. It is a business trust that acquires, develops, owns and manages mostly shopping malls in China.

So, is investing in PCRT risky? Why am I invested in PCRT?

From a top down perspective, with domestic consumption only a third of GDP in China, there is much room for it to grow and China will need more malls. This is especially so with the government's determination to make domestic consumption another engine of growth for the economy.

From a bottom up perspective, PCRT's numbers have improved and so have its prospects. Regular readers might remember how I did not think PCRT attractive at IPO. It was offered at 70c a unit at IPO with a distribution yield of 5.3% which I thought was too low for the level of risk investors were being asked to take on. This was in the middle of 2011, if I remember correctly.

Anyway, we know what then happened to the unit price of PCRT in the following months.

I initiated a long position in PCRT at 47.5c because the distribution yield of 8+% at that price offered a more acceptable level of compensation for the risk I would be asked to assume.

I also took comfort from the fact that the Trust saw Pua Seck Guan increasing his stake and Kuok Khoon Hong and Martua Sitorus becoming substantial shareholders. They have a very strong incentive for the Trust to do well.

To invest in PCRT is to believe that it will generate stronger cash flow in the next few years. We will need a longer time horizon as by 2015, we could see 4 more malls operational. 

Now, the management has to work hard to increase the occupancy of the malls which are already operational. With occupancy at about 70%, there is much room for improvement.

What are the negatives, currently? Much of the profit declared comes from fair value gains at the moment. Much of the distributable income comes from earned out deeds at the moment. These are probably points of contention.

However, when we invest in growth stocks, if we have looked at the probable downside and find the numbers acceptable and we have to be a bit more adventurous in certain instances, we just have to be patient. If we have taken care of the downside, the upside should take care of itself.

In PCRT's case, gearing is at a comfortable 19.9%. Interest cover ratio is more than adequate at 6.9x. Weighted average interest rate is 4.62% with no debt due till 2014 and 2015. NAV per unit is at 70c and a case has been made that it should be at least 6c higher.

The management, in the presentation slides, states that the development risk present during the Trust's IPO in 2011 has been largely reduced as more than 90% of its IPO assets are now operational. This is a fact. Two more malls will be operational this year and they are working hard to secure tenants. This is also a fact.

I like the story and I like how investing in PCRT is less risky now than back in 2011.

Would I buy more at the current price? I don't think so. Why? Because I am corrupted by TA and the negative divergences I see suggest a possible pull back sometime in the future. 59.5c at XD? Could happen. If I wasn't already invested, I could initiate a smallish long position as a hedge which I sometimes do.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Perennial China Retail Trust: Weak debut?

Mark Mobius on China.

The long weekend saw me doing more reading than usual. I also read why Mark Mobius, the executive chairman of Templeton, thinks the time is ripe to invest in Chinese equities.

Consumers have more disposable income:
Many consumers in China have been getting annual increases in wages of 20% or more. More personal assets could be funnelled into savings and investments.

Government spending:
The government is devoting more resources to infrastructure and subsidised housing as well as extending social security, education and health benefits to new migrants to the cities.

Fuel for the economy:
Between 2010 and 2011, interest rate in China increased 5x and are now at a 6% lending rate. The government has a lot of room to reduce rates if they need to stimulate the economy.

Volatility brings opportunity:
This year is likely to bring volatility which brings opportunity. We plan to go along for the ride.

I am holding on to my investments in Sound Global and China Minzhong, believing that they are good proxies of the continuing growth story in China. If Mr. Market should decide to offer much lower prices for their stocks in the meantime, I would buy more.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Share price to go higher.

LMIR: Divested 42.5% at 52.5c

Last night, I made a decision to sell a large chunk of my investment in LMIR. Today, my overnight sell order was filled.

By selling at 52.5c, I am giving up a distribution yield of approximately 5.7%.

As I went through my records to cancel out the units which were sold, I found out that the majority were purchased in late 2008 through 2009. 

I made fewer purchases in 2010 and 2011. 





Of course, the total number of units doubled during the rights issue in late 2011 at a price of 31c per rights unit.

Since the rights issue more than a year ago, the performance of LMIR has been unimpressive. 

I blogged about how unitholders who did not take the opportunity to buy more nil-paid rights as it was sold down aggressively then would have been better off without the rights issue and the subsequent acquisitions.

What is immediately positive about the divestment?

Given my entry prices, the divestment locks in a hefty capital gain. 

A big part of my remaining investment in the REIT is now "free", in a manner of speaking.






I have also put in a sell order at 53c. 

This is for the rights units converted from nil-paid rights bought in the open market in late 2011. 

If the sell order should be filled, it would reduce my investment in the REIT by another 30.5%. 

Then, my remaining investment in the REIT would be truly "free".





Of course, I have not taken into consideration the income distributions which I have been receiving from the REIT since 2008. 

I could check but it wouldn't serve any useful purpose other than to provide me with a way to kill time.

Still invested, I hope that LMIR's management would do better in FY2013 since I would still stand to benefit if OCBC Research's forecast for a much higher DPU from the REIT this year comes through.





Related post:
LMIR: An unimpressive 4Q 2012.

"We do not deserve to be disadvantaged this way." (FKA "Take the good with the bad if we retire to Malaysia.")

This is taken from a letter sent to The Forum Online in The Straits Times:

"My wife and I recently retired to Malaysia due to the property rules as well as the high cost of living in Singapore.

"We come back to Singapore to visit relatives and friends and attend medical appointments every two to three months.

"However, the LTA has informed me that as I am not an employee in Malaysia, my wife and I - a Singaporean and Singapore PR - are not allowed to drive our Malaysia-registered car into Singapore.

"I understand that this ruling is to close the loophole in the control of the vehicle population in Singapore, but I hope that the LTA can allow me to drive our Malaysia-registered car in based on the following..."

The writer went on to list 5 reasons, all of which I do not find convincing, ending the letter saying "We do not deserve to be disadvantaged this way."

I feel that since the writer understands that the rule exists for a good reason, then, he should not expect Singapore to make an exception for him.

I know people who moved to stay in Johor Bahru and rent out their HDB flats in Singapore for passive income. Not all are retired. In fact, a good number commute daily to Singapore for work.

I have always wondered why this is allowed since I believe that HDB flats are subsidised public housing and if these people are not staying in their flats, they should sell them to Singaporeans who need them more. It could possibly help to bring down the prices of resale flats too.

For Singaporeans who have chosen to make Johor Bahru their new home, I understand all their reasons for doing so with the lower cost of living in Malaysia usually at the top of the list.

However, understand that every choice made in life comes with consequences and we have to live with those consequences. 

We should not think that exceptions have to be made for us so that we can have our cake and eat it too, especially not when the exceptions will exact a cost on fellow Singaporeans.

5 rules for successful stock investing.

I would like to present a book on successful stock investing that comes highly recommended by a reader, Jojo.

US$ 22.95 each. Free shipping globally.

See Jojo's comments in an earlier blog post: here.

The book explains how to read financial statements, how to analyse companies and how to do valuations. It also shows mistakes to avoid and how to detect fraud.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Interview with CEO.

This was an interview session with Nicholas McGrath, CEO of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's management, on CNA late last year:



I like the explanation why the REIT took on a slightly higher cost of debt with its MTNs as compared to the secured bank loans which it retired. This is somewhere 2m 40s into the clip.

If my hearing serves me well, the advantages are three:

1. Broaden and diversify funding sources with dozens of debt capital market investors.

2. Able to borrow on an unsecured basis.

3. Increased the debt tenor of the REIT with 4 different maturity dates over the next 4 to 5 years.

It sounds to me like the REIT is paying a bit more on borrowings for a higher level of funding flexibility in both source and tenor. This could be a pre-emptive move against the almost certain increase in bank borrowing cost that would accompany a credit tightening in the USA if unemployment level drops to 6.5% by 2015.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4.35% Fixed Rate Notes.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2013 DPU 2.58c.

Little Book of Value Investing.

For anyone who wants to learn about value investing, I discovered an easy to read book.

The message I got is that value investing is easy enough but most people do not have the patience for it.

"Patience is sometimes the hardest part of using the value approach. When I find a stock that sells for 50 per cent of what I have determined it is worth, my job is basically done. Now it is up to the stock. It may move up toward its real worth today, next week, or next year. It may trade sideways for five years and then quadruple in price. There is simply no way to know when a particular stock will appreciate, or if, in fact, it will."

Of course, there are many ways to make money from the stock market and value investing is probably one of the best known, if not the most popular.

Get a copy for only US$ 6.48 to US$ 7.48.
Free shipping globally.

"Buying stocks that have fallen in price and yet still offer a margin of safety has resulted in successful investments."

I enjoyed the book which I feel is a well written primer on the subject of value investing. It is also inexpensive which makes it a value for money read as well.

Related post:
Warren Buffet: The world's greatest money maker.

Marco Polo Marine: The longer term picture.

I have blogged about how the daily chart of Marco Polo Marine spots many negative divergences and how anyone who should go long at present would have to do so in a measured manner. This means not throwing in everything including the kitchen sink.

How big could a correction be if it should happen? Looking at the weekly chart, we see that share price could pull back to support at 36.5c which is where a golden cross has just formed as the 20wMA made a bullish crossover with the 100wMA.

42c to 36.5c? Wah! That is a 5.5c decline or a 13% fall. If that scares us, we should stay away. After all, it could happen. Look at the volume on the weekly chart and we will see how it has been declining as share price tried to push higher.

Then, why am I not selling?

I like to marry FA and TA. In an ideal situation for me, FA tells me if a stock is undervalued and TA tells me when to buy. It is also true that FA tells me if a stock is overvalued and TA tells me when to sell. Remember, these are ideals.

Technically, I observed how trading volumes in the two black candle weeks are much lower. They are much lower than volumes in the white candle weeks. This suggests to me that sellers lack conviction.

The MACD on the weekly chart is still rising. There is no let up in the positive momentum. OBV has been rising over the longer term which suggests that there is more accumulation than distribution going on.

Add the fact that the stock is still undervalued given Marco Polo Marine's numbers and prospects as well as comparison to peers, there isn't a strong case for me to sell. In fact, the case to continue accumulating on weakness is much stronger.

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: Taking reference from trendlines.

Beware of Chinese New Year goodies!

OMG!



A timely reminder for some, perhaps.

Confession: I have been eating bak kwa and pineapple tarts liberally the entire week! No wonder my pants feel somewhat tighter. Oh dear.

CapitaMalls Asia: Reduced exposure.

Although analysts from Citibank, OCBC and more have given CapitaMalls Asia glowing reports, the long black candle which was formed yesterday on the back of very high volume was ominous.

Breaking immediate support provided by the 20d MA earlier in the week, the bearishness was confirmed as trading started under the 20d MA. It then went on to hit the 50d MA at $2.06 before recovering a bit to close at $2.08.

The question to ask now is whether the 50d MA, the new immediate support, would hold. The MFI has formed a lower high. The MACD has formed a lower high. Negative divergences aplenty and bearing in mind that prices go down a river of hope, I put in an overnight sell order at $2.12 to reduce exposure.

If we look at the weekly chart which provides a longer term picture, the 20w MA is still under $2.00. Currently, it is at $1.93. So, in the event of further high volume selling, we could well see the share price going lower to this longer term support.

The longer term uptrend is still intact but we cannot discount the possibility of a stronger correction in the shorter term. So, as I try to be pragmatic instead of being overly bullish or bearish, I have reduced exposure at what I think is the support turned resistance at $2.12.

LMIR: An unimpressive 4Q 2012.

I don't have much to say other than how unimpressed I am with the results.

DPU: 0.74c (payable on 5 March)

Gearing: 24.5%

NAV/unit: 56c

Occupancy: 93.5%

The management could possibly work on positive rental reversions for leases expiring this year. They could also try to push occupancy closer to 100%. All these would contribute to a higher DPU.

Please, no more acquisitions at least in 2013. For now, efforts should be on improving the performance of the recently acquired malls.

If there should be any acquisitions and it could happen since gearing is at only 24.5%, I hope that the management will be more careful in their efforts.

Careful? Yes, to ensure that DPU does not get watered down again. This was something I talked about in past blog posts.

LMIR really tests one's patience and the management's record leaves much to be desired.

Related post:
LMIR: 3Q 2012.

See slides: here.

Saizen REIT: DPU 0.66c.

With the JPY having declined almost 20% against the S$, I was expecting a reduction in DPU, everything else remaining equal.

However, all else did not remain equal and instead of a reduction in DPU, an increase to 0.66c is what we have.

What did the management do to improve the DPU?

1. Aggressive buying back of units from the open market.

2. Continual buying of new properties in Japan.

3. Lowering finance cost through loan principal repayments.

4. Improved occupancy from 91.0% to 91.7%.

To be fair, the REIT actually deployed its cash reserves with regards to point 3. Whether it is able to continue doing this depends on their level of cash reserves in future.

So, there is still a possibility that we could see future DPU reducing not just because of a weaker JPY but also because future loan principal repayments could be made from the REIT's income.

However, if it should happen, I believe it to be just short term pain as future DPU could be then enhanced when finance cost becomes reduced further, everything else remaining constant.

I am happy with the numbers reported and will be even happier when income distribution takes place on 22 March 2013.

See announcement: here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Still a buy?

Lucky 4D for Chinese New Year 2013.

I always say that luck is an important part of anything we do in life. We might do everything right but if luck is not with us, it is just too bad, isn't it?

Well, with the Year of the Snake just round the corner, let us look forward and embrace all the good fortune that will come our way!

ASSI has churned out 4 numbers: 8709

What to do with these 4 numbers? I don't know. What do you think?

Here is wishing all Chinese readers

a very happy and prosperous Chinese New Year!

Sell when it is HOT!

I was on the phone with a friend whom I have not seen in many years. He was wondering if he could visit me during the Chinese New Year holidays, remembering belatedly that I moved out to stay on my own a few years ago.

When I told him that I sold my place more than a year ago and moved back to stay with my parents, he was incredulous.

"Why did you sell? Real estate in that area is really HOT now!"

His statement reminded me of what a bank officer asked me many years ago when I was at the bank to sell my unit trusts which went up 40% in value. Lucky me.

"Why are you selling now? The Chinese stock market is doing so well now and you are making money!"

To me, it is quite simple. Shouldn't I sell when it is hot and when I am making money? Is it better to sell when it turns cold and when I cannot make any money?

Related post:
More cooling measures on the way?

New retail and F&B experience!

Wondering where to go with your family and friends during this Chinese New Year long weekend?

There is a new retail and F&B experience in Singapore!

It is the perfect magical setting for lovers to romance, families to celebrate, and special occasions to be remembered!

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So, where is this place? Find out more: here.

Consumers in Singapore to spend less in 2013.

I keep hearing how most businesses found 2012 more difficult compared to 2011. I am in agreement. Now, to dampen spirits further, if a report by Nielsen's is correct, 2013 could be even tougher.

In a survey carried out, it seems that consumers in Singapore are cutting back on discretionary spending in 2013. The top 3 areas of cut backs:

1. New clothes (55%)
2. More expensive grocery (47%)
3. Utilities (47%)

If we think that it is probably due to a lack of job security or the rising cost of living in Singapore that is causing consumers here to cut back, we are not wrong.

However, it was also found that consumers will remain cautious in their household expenses even if there should be an improvement in the economy. I believe that this hints at a general feeling of pessimism and a distrust of the economy that runs deeper than what we might believe to be the case.

To cut back on consumption is an important step in individual wealth building efforts for ordinary people but I do not think that wealth building was on the minds of most of the respondents in the survey. Why? In the same survey, the respondents also revealed that they would be cutting back on investments too.

The business of naming.

From time to time, I see very unfortunate choices in names whether for people or things.

"Hi Fish, I'm Noodle. Would you like to go out on a date. I know this place that sells very good Yu Pian Mi Fen (Sliced fish noodle)."

The Yu Pian Mi Fen did its magic. Fish and Noodle got married and had four children too (much to the government's delight).

"These are our handsome boys, Barracuda and Sturgeon. These are our beautiful girls, Fettucini and Ravioli..."

Choice of brand names, especially, could make or break a business.

"Cremate? Aiyoh! Choy!!!! So inauspicious!"

"Oh, it's Caremate...."

Folding Smart Cover for iPad mini - Look at the price!

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Related post:
Save money with low prices and free shipping globally.

Marco Polo Marine: Taking reference from trendlines.

I read somewhere before that a trader in the USA made a lot of money over the years using only trendlines in his technical analysis. Yes, only trendlines. Nothing else.

This hints at the importance of trendlines and how they have an indispensable role in anyone's charting efforts. After all, don't we hear people saying stuff like "the trend is our friend" and "don't go against the trend"? The word "trend" keeps popping up in technical analysis.

So, we must know how to recognise trends if we want to improve our chances of success trading in the stock market.

If we look at Marco Polo Marine, it is obvious that the downtrend was broken towards the end of 2012  and it is now on an uptrend.

Drawing trendlines, we would see that its current uptrend is in two parts: an earlier trendline with a gentler gradient which I have labelled "T2" and a later trendline with a steeper gradient which I have labelled "T1".

Drawing these trendlines, we know where are the price supports which must hold for the uptrend to remain intact. Breaking these supports would possibly be a sell signal for some. Short sellers could also come in to push the share price down further.

For others, it would represent opportunities to load up at cheaper valuations but we want to load up closer to supports. Well, at least for me, I think that buying at supports in an uptrend is the way to go.

Today, my overnight buy order at 41c was filled.

Related posts:
1. Marco Polo Marine: Negative divergences.
2. Recommended books for TA.

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Enhanced Incomeshield (H&S) for my mom.

When I signed up for Incomeshield in 1999, my mom signed up for it too, convinced of the benefits. I tried to get my dad to sign up for it too but he didn't and now it is too late because of his many ailments. He only has basic Medishield.

I upgraded to Enhanced Incomeshield with an Assist Rider when it became available a few years ago. So, it means that I only have to pay 10% of my total medical bills if I were to be hospitalised and this 10% has an annual cap of $3,000 in my case. So, if my hospitalisation and related bills were to total more than $30,000 in any year, I would still pay a maximum of only $3,000.







Recently, I convinced my mom to upgrade her basic Incomeshield to the same as what I have. It took me a while to convince her because of the cost involved.

As we grow older, the premium increases and she was concerned that she would end up having to pay more than $2,000 a year for the upgrade. I told her that I was not worried about the cost. I was more worried that NTUC Income might not approve the upgrade.

As my paternal grandmother is now undergoing long term treatment, I used her as an example. She only had basic Medishield and it expired when she turned 80. Her medical bills run easily into the tens of thousands of dollars a year. Even with basic Medishield, she depleted my father's Medisave account and more.

I told my mom that the annual premium is money well spent and that I would pay on her behalf if need be. After all, without a good hospitalisation and surgery plan, I could possibly be paying for her future hospitalisation bills.







My mom was not happy with what I said. Oh, yes, she is quite "pantang" (which means "superstitious" in local lingo for those who don't know).

Well, when I am convinced about something, I am relentless in pursuing the course. My mom actually complained that I was nagging! Finally, she gave in and I brought her to NTUC Income Centre to do the necessary.

I am pleased to say that her upgrade has recently been approved with coverage excluding a pre-existing condition. Now, at least, I only have to worry about paying for my dad's future medical bills because basic Medishield is not as good when it comes to cost sharing.

I would urge everyone to consider not only getting a good lifetime hospitalisation and surgery (H&S) plan for ourselves but also for our parents, if they do not have one already. The peace of mind that comes with this is priceless.







I am not doing this to advertise for NTUC Income. It just so happens that I have been with them for a long time and I know this product. You should definitely shop around and compare the different products available. If you have not done this, do it soon. Do it today, if you can.

Just make sure it is a lifetime plan and make sure to buy a rider to cover the deductibles which leaves only the co-insurance payable by us in the event of a claim. We can use the money in our Medisave account to help pay the premium for the plan but not the cost of the rider.

I hope no one is "pantang" about me talking about something like this a few days before the Chinese New Year.

Related posts:
1. Millionaire or not, plan for retirement.
2. Eldershield.
3. What should a Singaporean have by age 35?