AK the born again teacher or a mental blogger?

Reader:
I chanced upon your blog half a year ago and been following your every entry since then. In my free time, i try to read up your entries to get a grasp of what we can do to improve our wealth and be financially independent.

Articles such as contribution to CPF SA holds dearly to my heart as it means the earlier we transfer from OA (of course living a portion for hdb flat payment) to SA and cash top up (tax rebate) the more we can enjoy the compounding interest and what we will receive from our retirement in the future.


I also benefited from your lucky 4 numbers and won a little fortune. Thank you.





Your insight into shares also led me to buy shares which I wasn't aware of. I assume I am too lazy to read up on Financial news.


Thanks for talking to yourself every now and then.


When you talk to yourself, it's like a teacher giving a lecture to his students. Valuable advice which will benefit us. But at the same time in no way should we blindly always follow what you do. Rather having an opinion of our own and then making own decision based on our analysis should be the way to go

Please continue doing what you do best as what you are doing will inspire us to be better in being financially independent and gain more knowledge in financial knowledge.


Your sincerely
K

AK: Alamak. I am only talking to myself... OK, I am delivering a lecture to myself. ;)

On a serious note, I like helping people to help themselves. So, I am glad if talking to myself has achieved this.

However, not for the first time, I have been made aware that my blogs could also have caused harm. See comments: HERE.

It was followed by a chat I had soon after with a blogger:

However, given the overwhelmingly positive messages I received from readers when I shared my thoughts on my FB wall, I guess I will keep blogging, keeping the status quo.

Although I won't stop blogging anytime soon, I might slow down from time to time.

I want to avoid the feeling that blogging is a full time job. Blogging should always be a hobby to me.

Even if I do stop blogging one day, my blog is still here. So, you are never alone on the journey to financial freedom.




Be good. Be prudent. Be pragmatic. Be patient. We will do well enough.

If AK can do it, so can you!

Related post:
How did AK achieve financial freedom?

OUE C-REIT will see DPU declining.

Back in 2014, when OUE C-REIT had its IPO, I warned that its gearing was too high and its distribution yield (which was financially engineered to be higher through income support given by the sponsor) was too low given its IPO price of 80c a unit. 

The IPO was a good deal for OUE Limited.

Cheers!

Investing in REITs, we should be prepared for fund raising because they distribute most of their income to their investors. 

When a REIT raises funds, we have to question their reason for doing so. 

If it is to invest in yield accretive assets, it is a good thing. 

Regular readers of my blog would be familiar with the argument that not all rights issues are bad.

See: 
REITs and rights issues: Dilutive or not?

In this instance, OUE C-REIT is placing out new shares at 64.3c a unit (which is some 20% lower than its IPO price) in order to strengthen its balance sheet. 

So, there will be no additional income from this exercise. 

In fact, DPU will most certainly decline since there will be more units in issue while income stays the same.

The REIT's 4Q 2016 DPU was 1.18c. 

This is a 9.36% reduction from a DPU of 1.26c in 4Q 2015 and this is after contribution from One Raffles Place which was acquired in late 2015 too.

OUE C-REIT has about 1,300,000,000 units in issue. 

Placing out around 233,000,000 units to strengthen its balance sheet will see some savings in interest expense but the REIT's DPU is likely to decline further.

Roughly, we could see interest expense reducing some $5 million per year or $1.25 million per quarter. 

While distributable income will increase by a similar quantum, in percentage terms, we will see about an 8% increase. 

Now, put this against an 18% increase in units in issue and do the math.

Math is not my strongest subject but I think we will see quarterly DPU declining to less than 1.1c which means less than 4.4c for a whole year. 

Just to put this in perspective, at the REIT's IPO, DPU was 5.44c.

Therefore, to get the same distribution yield as what was offered during its IPO, OUE C-REIT's units should trade at a much lower price compared to its IPO price. 

How much lower? 

About 20% lower which means a unit price of 64c.

Of course, we want to remember that without income support for OUE Bayfront, the REIT's DPU would be even lower. 

This income support will expire end of 2018. Coupled with new supply of office space which will worsen the excess supply situation in the CBD, OUE C-REIT is on a slippery slope.

So, demanding an even lower price than 64c a unit before investing in OUE C-REIT is not unreasonable but whether Mr. Market is willing to sell at a lower price is anyone's guess.

For anyone who is interested in reading more of my thoughts on OUE C-REIT and, specifically, why I avoided it, please see the related post below and its comments section.

Related post:
OUE C-REIT (12 Jan 14).

See OUE C-REIT presentation (26 January 2017): HERE.

Every 25bps increase in floating interest rates is expected to reduce distribution by S$0.7 million per annum, or 0.05 cents in DPU

Sabana REIT could see a change for the better.

As we grow older, feelings of deja vu might become a bit more common. It is probably due to accumulated life experience or maybe the mind is just degenerating.

Anyway, when I read that e-Shang Redwood Ltd (ESR) became a substantial unitholder in Sabana REIT about a week ago, I got a feeling of deja vu.

ESR are the people who bought a majority stake in the manager of Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) not too long ago and they also own 12% of CIT.

e-Shang Redwood is a pan Asian logistics entity. Don't play, play.

This reminds me of the time when CIT tried to take over the distressed MacArthurCook Industrial REIT (MI-REIT). Chris Calvert, the CEO of CIT, who was then formerly the CEO of MI-REIT used CIT's resources to buy into MI-REIT.

There was a big fight over MI-REIT with the team led by George Wang. Fortunately, George Wang et. al. won the fight and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was formed.

In my opinion, Chris Calvert did a poor job of running MI-REIT which led to a need for massive re-capitalisation. If CIT had taken over MI-REIT, with CIT's lacklustre performance and controversy over the years, I think MI-REIT would not have done any better.

It is one thing having good assets and another having a good manager. If we have both in a REIT, we have a clear winner. However, if I must choose, I will choose a good manager because a bad one will just squander away good assets.

With Sabana REIT, I have shared how its numbers were really good at IPO and it just went downhill 3 years later. The manager has constantly struck me as self serving and mediocre and this is putting it mildly.

So, in Sabana REIT's case, a change is needed. Some might say any manager is better than the current one but, more accurately, I would say that it is difficult to do worse than the current manager.

When CIT bought a big stake in MI-REIT years ago, it was with the intention of taking over MI-REIT. Now, I believe that ESR has the intention of taking over Sabana REIT one way or another.

I am holding on to a legacy investment in Sabana REIT that is free of cost as well as units from the recent deeply discounted rights issue. So, I am very much in the black. If ESR is going to bring change to the REIT, even better.

Related post:
History with Sabana REIT.

Reference:
Sabana REIT and ESR.

Say VES and make $35,000 selling my car?

There was the CEVS and, now, we have the VES.

Lucky for my readers, ASSI is always just ASSI.

Anyway, the CEVS stands for Carbon Emission-Based Vehicle Scheme. Basically, cars with lower carbon emission were given rebates and I benefitted from this scheme when I bought a diesel car about a year ago. It reduced the price tag of my car by more than 10% which was a big deal.

In January this year, when the government announced that they were looking into the real environmental cost of diesel cars, I expected them to disallow diesel cars eventually. It would take many years to achieve this but, in Singapore, if the government wants to do something, we better believe it will be implemented.

So, to discourage higher consumption of diesel, last month, we saw an additional tax on diesel. 10c per litre. That is a few percentage points higher in price but still about 30% cheaper than RON95 petrol. It was 40% cheaper but 30% cheaper is still a lot cheaper. Diesel cars still make more sense for the cost conscious car owner.

Negligible impact.


I was also pleasantly surprised that the government decided to reduce the special tax on diesel cars. I am paying about $1,200 in annual road tax for my diesel car whereas I was paying $700 for my petrol car, both are 1.5 litre cars. 

Apparently, I will be paying less in annual road tax in future. I guess I am lucky that taxis make up the bulk of the diesel car population in Singapore and the government has quite a few (very good) reasons not to rock the boat too much.

Zero impact.

Now, what is the VES? This is the new Vehicular Emission Scheme and will stay in effect till end of 2019. Vehicles will enjoy rebates or suffer surcharges based not only on carbon dioxide emission but nitrogen oxide and particulate emissions as well.

So, diesel cars, with their lower carbon dioxide emission which enjoyed rebates in the past will suffer surcharges. Now, this, in my opinion, will really discourage diesel car ownership. It will do what the 10c per litre increase in diesel price cannot do.

If I were to buy my diesel car under the VES, I would be looking at a price tag that is some 15% higher whereas it was 10% lower with the CEVS before!

Earth shattering impact!

10%? 15%? No big deal?

OK. Let's put it in dollar terms.

Imagine a $140,000 price tag receiving a CEVS rebate of $15,000 which brings the price down to $125,000.

Now, imagine the same car receiving a VES surcharge of $20,000 which brings the price up to $160,000!

We are looking at a $35,000 difference!

For most middle income households, that is a big deal.


I really enjoy driving my diesel car and I am lucky I paid a lot less for it too.

Now, I wonder if I can sell my car for a higher price. Yes, I know. Bad AK! Bad AK!

(Oh, I hope you enjoyed the 3 video clips too. I laughed a lot and my jaw also dropped many times. Think I need to see a doctor liao.)

Related post:
5 reasons to buy a diesel car.

References:
1. Diesel vehicle taxes.
2. Vehicular Emission Scheme.

NikkoAM-StraitsTrading ex-Japan REIT ETF or "AK REIT ETF"?

I am feeling lazy, as always, and didn't want to write about the new REIT ETF but I received so many messages that I decided, maybe, I should say something.

I didn't want to blog about the ETF because it is easy enough to understand. 

It will hold a basket of REITs, 23 to be exact, from countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia. 

It will distribute income quarterly and the distribution yield is estimated to be 5% at IPO.

The ETF is probably a good choice for people who want to have exposure to REITs but are too lazy to be bothered with researching individual REITs. 




OK, I understand the lazy bit but they will have to take the good with the bad in the ETF.

For people who know more about REITs, they are probably better off investing in individual REITs. 

I don't know about you but a 5% distribution yield from a REIT product is unattractive to me.

Why?









Well, remember that REITs are leveraged instruments. 

Leverage magnifies gains. 

So, the 5% yield is after magnification. 

Taking into consideration that they distribute 90% to 100% of their cash flow (i.e. they have zero retained earnings), a 5% yield doesn't seem attractive.

To me, the only good thing about the ETF is that having a portfolio of 23 REITs reduces concentration risk. 

However, if diversification is what we want, we can try to form our own REIT ETF.










Taking from my portfolio, for example, we could put together an "AK REIT ETF":

1. AIMS AMP Cap. Ind. REIT

2. FIRST REIT

3. Frasers Log and Ind. Trust

4. Ascendas Hospitality Trust

5. IREIT Global

6. Croesus Retail Trust

7. Religare Health Trust

OK, I am being a bit liberal here since not all are REITs but you get the idea.




Assuming equal weight given to the 7 components in "AK REIT ETF", we are looking at a distribution yield of more than 7%. 



"AK REIT ETF" would generate at least 40% more in income than "NikkoAM-Straits Trading ex-Japan REIT ETF".


Oh, did you notice that my REIT is also less of a mouthful? 

Yes, I know. 

Bad AK! Bad AK!










Of course, we would also have control of what we want in and what we want out. 

We could also change the weight of each component.

If we are investing in REITs for income, if we want some diversification, then, perhaps, NikkoAM-StraitsTrading ex-Japan REIT ETF is a decent option. 

Otherwise, the ETF really doesn't seem attractive to me at all.





-------------------
UPDATE (16 March 2017):
What happens if one of the REITs (or a few) in the ETF had a rights issue?
A reader found out from the horse's mouth:
"Investors in the ETF have no direct access to the rights issues.... Manager has the discretion whether to take up the rights/sell the rights..."

Ron and Dave dissect some of today’s most important REIT ETFs.

Food inflation in Malaysia and Singapore.

We are always saying how things are cheaper across the Causeway and I do it too. 

I have said it often enough to get rebuked by some of my Malaysian friends.

"You Singaporeans only find it cheap because of the strong S$. 

"Life is actually very difficult for common Malaysians, you know.

"And you people come here and drive prices up.

"You think the people in Johor like higher prices?"





I grew up loving McDonald's fast food.

It was always a treat.

These days, I still go to McDonald's and I like ordering the S$2.50 Fillet o fish. 

Since they dropped the price to S$2.00 before increasing it to S$2.50 for the burger alone, I have not had the meals.

The meal comes with fries and a drink but costs S$5.00.

It is just paying more for extra (and empty) calories which I don't need.





In JB, I remember it cost me about RM9.00 for a Fillet o fish meal.

That is less than S$3.00!

It is like paying 50c for fries and a drink!

It is a no brainer for me.

Of course, I would take the meal! 

Yes, I know.

Suddenly, I am OK with with the extra (and empty) calories.

Bad AK! Bad AK!





For the Malaysians, however, paying for a Fillet o fish meal in Malaysia is like Singaporeans paying for a Fillet o fish meal in Singapore.

It is not more affordable for them.

Actually, it is the opposite.

I found out that an optometrist makes about RM4,000 in Malaysia but an optometrist makes about S$4,000 in Singapore.

The former pays RM9.00 (0.225% of his salary) while the latter pays S$5.00 (0.125% of his salary) for the same meal.

Although inflation is affecting food prices everywhere, it is worse in Malaysia than in Singapore.

Malaysia Food Inflation  Forecast 2016-2020

Food Inflation in Malaysia is expected to be 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Food Inflation in Malaysia to stand at 4.70 in 12 months time. Source: HERE.

Singapore Food Inflation  Forecast 2016-2020

Food Inflation in Singapore is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Food Inflation in Singapore to stand at 2.90 in 12 months time. Source: HERE.

I have made a mental note to be more sensitive when I talk about the cost of living when I am with my Malaysian friends.

Malaysia cuts food subsidies.




Related post:
We manage our savings better!
Malaysia and India pay higher interests in similar pension schemes but our Singapore dollar is rated AAA and has appreciated against the currencies of many other countries.

OUE Limited is offering me money for IHC.

Mr Riady explains how he built up his business empire.

International Healthway Corporation Limited (IHC) was spun off from Healthway Medical Corporation (HMC) in 2013. Back then, its IPO price was 48c a share. 

Being a HMC shareholder, I was given free shares of IHC which I have mostly forgotten about until the recent saga in which the entire board of IHC was given the boot. 

Of course, it was revealed then that OUE Limited became a substantial shareholder of IHC.

Today, I received an offer from OUE to buy my shares. Offer price is 10.6c a share.

Two days ago, I blogged about receiving an offer from OUE for my shares in HMC. It seems that OUE sees potential in IHC too. Both IHC and HMC are probably undervalued in their eyes.

I don't have the business savvy, connections nor the foresight of the Riady family. What I do know is that they won't buy heavily into an investment unless they are able to benefit from it.

Both IHC and HMC suffered from having mediocre management which were too adventurous for their own good. 

With my small stakes in both entities, I got tickets to go for the ride with the Riady family. Yes, I won't be accepting this offer either.

Now, from an email I received regarding my blog on HMC recently, I must emphasize that I am rather cavalier about the offers because my stakes are not only small, they are also free of cost. What I am happy doing, of course, might not sit well with others.

I apologise if my blog post on HMC offended some readers and, now, my blog post on IHC too.

If you should feel upset with what you hear, eavesdropping on AK, tell yourself that he is just a mental blogger. Ignore him.

Anger is bad for health. Way too bad.

Related post:
HMC and free money from Lippo.

VIVA Industrial Trust more attractive with 9% yield?

Reader:
Any latest thoughts on Viva. The high yield attractive enough now?




AK:
You should question why is the yield relatively higher for VIT?

In my last blog on VIT, I mentioned the very short lease for their Chai Chee property as a concern. Of course, we know that they went ahead and bought another property in Toa Payoh with an even shorter lease. Alamak.

If we look at VIT's total gross floor area or total GFA (i.e. all their properties put together), 2.22 million square feet or 62% of total GFA have about 20 years or less to their land leases left. 






Will the land leases be extended and if extended, at what cost to unitholders? If you are thinking about investing in VIT or are already invested, this has to be a pertinent question.

If you think 20 years sounds like a relatively long time, take a closer look and you will see that of the 2.22 million square feet of GFA, almost 88% have about 14 years or less to their land leases left!

To be more exact, 1.95 million square feet have about 14 years or less to their land leases left! That is 54% of the REIT's total GFA!

How is that for a wake up call?





This means that 13 to 14 years from now, we could see half of VIT's distributable income vanishing into thin air. 

What would the 9% distribution yield or so at 77c a unit become then?

Cash flow would almost definitely take a plunge while we have to remember that the REIT's borrowings will probably stay the same since they are not amortized.

VIT's current gearing level is almost 40% and their interest cover ratio is about 4x. We don't even need rising interest rates to wreak havoc on VIT's numbers. If operational cash flow reduces by half or more, the REIT's interest cover ratio is in jeopardy.






I would rather sacrifice 1% yield and invest in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT for a slightly lower 8% yield if I want exposure to Industrial S-REITs. Peace of mind is priceless.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's current gearing level is about 35% and their interest cover ratio is about 5x. Stronger numbers? You bet.

I shared this during a workshop last year and again at a private event recently.

A REIT should think about improving the attributes of its assets which includes having longer land leases. 

Recycling capital by selling assets with shorter remaining land leases into assets with longer land leases, all else remaining equal, for example, is a sensible thing to do.





A good example would be the recent divestment of a property with a remaining land lease of 17 years by Cache Logistics Trust which used the proceeds to buy a freehold industrial property in Australia with a Net Property Income (NPI) yield of 7.4% with yearly rental escalation built in.

Being attracted by high yields could be like a moth being attracted to a candle flame if we are not careful.





Related post:
VIVA Industrial Trust not in my shopping list.

Healthway Medical and free money from Lippo. (Renamed "OUE Lippo Healthcare Limited".)

Donkey years ago, I invested in Healthway Medical Corporation (HMC). 

I liked the numbers and I thought it was relatively undervalued compared to peers.

Anyway, I got in at 10 cents a share and was mostly divested by the time its share price doubled months later.

Some of my comments from 2009.

Unfortunately, HMC had troubles later on and the last time I looked at it, its PE ratio was 100x or more. 

I still have a very small position in HMC made up of scrip dividends collected over the years. 

Free of cost to me and mostly forgotten, the shares are not worth very much today.

Although HMC's performance has been inconsistent, booking a huge impairment recently, the Lippo Group is making a takeover offer of 4.2c a share. 

They are the same people behind First REIT which is one of my largest investments and, of course, OUE Limited. 

I like to think that the Lippo Group know what they are doing and that they think they could transform the potential they see in HMC. 

Sounds familiar? 

Yes, that is OUE Limited's slogan: 

"Viewing every development as an opportunity to transform its potential."






Like I said, I have a very small stake that is free of cost. 

If HMC has a chance at being transformed and of doing better in future at the hands of the Lippo Group, I want a share, no matter how small it is. 

So, I am not accepting the offer.

ARA Asset Management and $1.78 a share.

After my ARA "fixed deposit" has been redeemed, what remains is my original investment which I paid $1.00 to $1.32 a share for.

Although the offer of $1.78 would mean a 35% to 78% capital gain, I would be losing a very consistent and meaningful source of passive income. 

A yearly 5c dividend per share (DPS) gives me a yield on cost of 3.78% to 5% and from a growing business with a very strong balance sheet too.

At $1.78 a share, a 5c DPS gives a dividend yield of 2.8% which is still pretty decent considering the fact that ARA pay out only about half of their earnings as dividends.

As an investor for income, naturally, I would like to continue receiving dividends from companies such as ARA. 

With an impressive full year 2016 performance, I am even more reluctant to let go of my investment in ARA now. 

So, I have decided not to accept the offer.

See presentation slides: HERE.

Make 15-18% a month or 180%-216% annually!

READER

I got a cold call FB request from a stranger

"I am from research expertise firm, we promote discipline & professional way of stock trading for consistant profit I found that you are interested in SGX Stocks "I am not inviting you for brokership Basically we promoting our trading strategies for consistent profit For stocks we have some master strategies like Volume Spread Method in this strategy you can minimize your risk "I am inviting you to try my trading strategies. In this you wil get 15-18% return in just 1 month and it grow in a consistent manner"

AK:

I get these sometimes too. I just block them immediately.

If can make 15-18% a month or 180%-216% annually, i think he should borrow from the bank and trade himself.

i usually just accept FB fren request becos 99% of my FB frens are not frens

i thought got ho kang tao mah. hahaha . play with him awhile then i block

i just block if turns out to be soliciting for XXX or XXXX or XXXXX...

u big buaya la diff

u so free lor

show trading records liao. i eat finish lunch eat snake

ROFL. i go watch k drama.... will nap later... 88

88

5:46PM

yawn

song lah wake up liao. Siesta damn song

yes, it was a very nice nap

song i just abt to leave office nia. Steady leh 180% returns the guy say his strategy can make. I am impressed he gave me 2015 n 2016 numbers hahaha. Seriously such lousy scam still exists

you banned him liao, i suppose

Banned, just now tempted to see what the impressive strategy is all about He immediately ask me how much I can invest Haha

LOL. Wonder how many victims liao

U think got ah Gong go invest in him? Pretty obvious leh

Maybe I should publish this in my blog

Haha as long as u take out my name Pls do so