Charts in brief: 7 Jun 10.

FSL Trust: Formed a white hammer, closing at 45c after gapping down to start the day at 44.5c.  Closing at 45c is below the trendline support in the short term. Could we be seeing the start of a bottoming process with 42.5c as the base and 46c as the neckline? Could we be seeing the start of a trading range with support at 42.5c and resistance at 46c?  Although the MACD is above the signal line, it remains in negative territory. The MFI has peeked above 50% and the OBV is flattish.  Selling pressure has abated.  That much is obvious.

FSL Trust off 3.3%; potential vessel revenue loss
Monday, 07 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: We have a sell signal on the MACD histogram. The MACD seems to be flattening as the signal line continues rising to catch up.  OBV is rounding from a peak although MFI is above 50% and rising gently.  Still, I would like to sell some at 23c, the top of the trading range but I might not get my wish.  Immediate support is at 21.5c.

SPH: The white spinning top formed last Friday was confirmed today as a reversal signal.  Price gapped down from the opening bell and did not once trade above the 200dMA at $3.72. All the technicals suggest that SPH is going to see more weakness in time. Volume expanded today as we have a sell signal on the MACD.  I was waiting to sell more at S$3.83 last week but that price did not happen.

STI falls 2% to 2,751.88 at closing
Monday, 07 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Although we have a white candle today, it was on reduced volume. The negative divergence between price and volume is obvious.  Sell signal seen on the MACD.  MFI has been forming lower highs in the short term.  OBV is lacklustre.  I still see a symmetrical triangle and this needs to be resolved.  Otherwise, the situation remains dicey although I believe there is a downward bias.

Plan and hedge.

Having a plan is important in almost everything we do.  We want to do well in school, we plan. We want to do well at work, we plan.  We want to start a business, we plan.  We want to have a happy marriage, we plan.  We want to do well in the stock market, we plan.  It goes on.

 Embarking on any journey without planning is foolhardy, in my opinion.  We might end up drifting and, maybe, even destitute as we use up all our resources. Some might enjoy this kind of gypsy like existence but I surely don't. However, does it mean that if we plan well, we will always do well? I think we know the answer.

I believe in hedging in a world of uncertainty. There is never anything that is for sure. See how the stock markets rallied almost non-stop for more than 12 months since March 2009? Along the way, at every dip, bears said a correction was going to happen but the markets powered on upwards.

Mr. Market does not care what bulls and bears think. Mr. Market will act how he acts and that's that.

In a world of uncertainty, hedging has to be part of our plans. For example, I believe in accumulating high yields for passive income but if I see the high yields developing a downtrend, what do I do? Sell some as they form lower highs. I could perhaps buy them lower. What if they don't go lower? Well, that's why I would only sell some.

Always remember that FA is about value and TA is about price. Value and price are not the same thing. FA tells us something but TA might tell us something else. We might be holding the stocks of very good businesses but if the prices are in a downtrend, selling some is what I would do. It is the pragmatic thing to do. You have heard this before but I will say it again: Don't be overly bullish or bearish, be pragmatic.

After the bloodletting on Friday in the European and US stock markets, what will happen tomorrow in Asia? Most would guess that the stock markets in Asia would follow suit. I am inclined to think that way too but the truth is I don't know. Maybe, the SSE would throw a positive surprise and send stocks upwards. Who knows? This is the state of the markets now: one of heightened volatility.

In a Tech Ticker interview, Felix Salmon of Reuters had this advice to give: "Rather than suffer through the tough times, Salmon’s simple message for the average investor: Sell your stocks. Now!"


Personally, I think this is somewhat extreme but it might be good advice for people with weak hearts. Just don't bang your head against the wall if things go the other way instead.

Charts in brief: 4 Jun 10.

FSL Trust: Bought some units at 45.5c today.  Volume shrank as price closed at 46c.  46c is still the resistance to watch. A semblance of stability has returned to this counter but its price is probably not going to rise in a hurry. MACD continues to rise above the signal line and MFI is testing 50% once more.

LMIR: Price closed at 47c above the 20dMA on low volume. We need confirmation that the 20dMA is resistance turned support. 47c is a many times tested support and should provide resistance.  I have sold some units at 47c to reduce my exposure. Next resistance level is at 48c which approximates the positions of the 50dMA and the 200dMA. The downtrend is still intact.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 22.5c. Very low volume. MACD has crossed into positive territory and MFI continues to rise above 50%. OBV has flattened at a high. I continue to queue to sell some at 23c, the top of the range.

Golden Agriculture: A doji formed today on very low volume. The downtrend is intact even as the MACD forms a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. A lower high in the MFI tells of weak positive buying momentum. I have sold into strength and will wait for clearer signs of bottoming before going long again.

SPH: Volume continues to fall as price formed a white spinning top today, resisted by the 20dMA at $3.79. OBV is flat. MFI is moving to test 50%. The negative divergence between rising price and falling volume is quite clear to see (as with many other counters). I would like to to sell some SPH shares at $3.83 but without volume, it seems difficult.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 3 Jun 10.

Charts in brief: 3 Jun 10.

Singapore dollar to outperform on ‘safe-haven’ status, RBS says
Thursday, 03 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI climbs 2.4% to 2,793.34 at closing
Thursday, 03 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: There is no doubt now that this counter has cleared a major resistance provided by a cluster of MAs. Closing at 22.5c today increased the probability of a retest of 23c, a long term resistance.  Would it stay range bound with 23c as the upper end of the range? The MACD is rising strongly and looks set to cross into positive territory which would signal the return of positive momentum. MFI is rising and OBV is rising.  The momentum seems strong.

FSL Trust:  Volume expanded nicely today on a white candle day.  The declining 20dMA is growing gentler in its gradient.  MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line in negative territory. MFI formed a higher low as it moves to test 50% again.  OBV is rising. The Bollinger bands are narrowing which suggests a reduction in volatility. 46c remains the resistance to watch for now. The declining 20dMA is at 47c.  Clearing these resistance levels could possibly see a target of 51.5c.

Golden Agriculture: Price touched a high of 52c after overcoming resistance at 50.5c. 52c, incidentally, is also where we find the declining 20dMA.  I have sold my remaining shares in this company at 51c. The negative divergence between rising price and falling volume is quite clear.  The downtrend is still intact and this rebound has provided me with an opportunity to divest.

SPH: Very nice white candle day but the volume has declined. Negative divergence.  Not so nice. MACD is poised for a bullish crossover in negative territory.  MFI has formed a higher low but OBV is flattish.  Closing at $3.79 is where we find the 20dMA.  Breaking this resistance, I believe, will find resistance at $3.83 next as this is where we find the 150% Fibo line as well as the 100dMA. Breaking this level would find resistance higher up at $3.88 and $3.90. Without an expansion in volume as price moves higher, I am doubtful that the higher resistance levels could be taken out and would therefore sell into strength.

Related posts:
FSL Trust: Time to buy?
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: A strong up day.
SPH: Flirting with the 200dMA.
Golden Agriculture: Downtrend is intact.

Charts in brief: 2 Jun 10.

Healthway Medical: Closing at 16c today is probably a relieve for shareholders of this company. 16c is where we find the flat 100dMA.  16c is also a many times tested support and likely to be a strong resistance. So, it remains to be seen if this could be taken out.

Volume has been thin and any upward movement in price is not convincing, therefore. Personally, I would sell into strength, especially if price continues to appreciate. Sell some at 16c and sell more at 17c? Maybe.

LMIR: A low volume day as the MACD crossed above the signal line and price closed at 46.5c, approximating the declining 20dMA. Volume has been declining as the price staged a rebound from a recent low of 42c. I would continue to queue to sell some at resistance as a hedge. I see a band of resistance from 47c to 48c.

STI gains 0.5% to 2,727.57 at closing
Wednesday, 02 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
LMIR: Up against a wall?

Golden Agriculture: Downtrend is intact.

I have a very small long position left in Golden Agriculture, having divested half of my remaining investment at 55.5c in mid May as the counter formed a lower high in the current downtrend which started in late April. It has continued to form lower lows and lower highs since.

The immediate resistance seems to be 50.5c now while breaking the low of 24 May would have a downside target of 44.5c as suggested by Fibo lines which coincides with gap support formed on 9 Nov 09.  That is some way to fall.

I am definitely not in a hurry to add to my long position at this point in time.

SPH: Flirting with the 200dMA.

SPH has been flirting with the 200dMA in the last few sessions. Today, it closed firmly below the 200dMA, forming an inverted white hammer, at $3.69.  I am watching this counter very closely as it is my favourite blue chip for its high yield and fortress-like core business and real estate interests. Also, I have divested about half of my investment in this company at $3.95, a lower high, in an earlier session after it hit a high of $4.18 in late April. So, I would like to load up again in order to keep my portfolio balanced.

Seeing how the 200dMA is in danger of being left behind, I plotted Fibo lines which suggest that price could go as low as $3.52 which coincides with the lows formed in the first half of Nov 09.

If we look at the weekly chart, we see that the rising 50wMA has not been compromised as a support.  It is at $3.63 this week. I might buy some at $3.63 as a hedge.

CapitaMalls Asia: Dicey.

For three consecutive sessions, the downtrend resistance line has been tested and broken. Today, it seems that price has closed above this line at $2.11 while being supported by the 20dMA. The bugbear is, of course, the negative divergence between the rising price and the falling volume. If volume does not expand meaningfully as price increases, any further upside might be capped by the declining 50dMA.

Where the momentum oscillators are concerned, the MFI has been forming higher highs and higher lows, suggesting rising buying momentum. The MACD is rising and has stayed above the signal line which is promising although it is still in negative territory. The OBV is not as encouraging and is flattish.  All these technicals combined with the price action forming higher lows and lower highs which create a symmetrical triangle suggest caution to be exercised when going long here.

Any continuing move upwards would be met with resistance in a band from the 50dMA at $2.17 to $2.19.  Without a meaningful expansion in volume, it is unlikely that this resistance band would be overcome. Further downside should find initial support at $2.03, provided by the uptrend support.  Until the symmetrical triangle resolves itself to have price go either up or down, the situation remains dicey.

FSL Trust: Time to buy?

FSL Trust has moved above its most recent downtrend resistance on 27 May and has established an uptrend support since it bottomed at 42.5c on 21 May with a white spinning top.  That white spinning top has delivered as a reversal signal, it would seem.

The MACD has crossed above the the signal line in negative territory.  MFI has formed a higher high after being resisted at 50%.  OBV has stopped declining.  All the technicals suggest that downward pressure has eased and that its price might now be basing.

Should we buy some now? As a hedge, maybe. We have to bear in mind that price has been rising recently on very low volume.  If price starts declining again soon, we would have a lower high formed and we want to see that 42.5c is not tested again (in which case, it would form a higher low) or, if it is tested, it should hold up (in which case, it might form a double bottom).  If 42.5c breaks as support, a new lower low would be formed, which is bearish.  Then, the MACD's bullish crossover in negative territory would have just been signalling a rebound and not a more bullish reversal.

So, I might hedge with a smallish long position but I would only buy more if I see clearer signs that price has bottomed and that it is recovering.

Related posts:
FSL Trust: A sinking ship?
FSL Trust: That sinking feeling.

LMIR: Up against a wall?

LMIR staged an up day as well but on rather lacklustre volume. Price hit a high of 47c before retreating to close at 46c. 47c is a many times tested support and could be a strong resistance now.  For those who wish to, it is a good price to reduce exposure at. Price could touch a high of 47.5c for this REIT tomorrow and the downtrend would still be intact.

However, the momentum oscillators are encouraging with MFI forming a higher high and the OBV continuing to rise. The MACD looks like it would do a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory.  Let's see what tomorrow brings.

My strategy in a downtrend: Sell into strength as price rebounds to test resistance. Buy more when price shows signs of bottoming or when the trend shows signs of reversing. Bearing this in mind, I would queue to sell some at 47.5c, the trendline resistance, tomorrow

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: A strong up day.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT staged an impressive up day on high volume today.  It has been a long time since this REIT has had a white candle day on such high volume. Immediate resistance provided by a confluence of MAs was taken out at 21.5c as it closed unequivocably at 22c.  There were quite a few big trades today:

9.07 AM at 21c, 1,086 lots bought up.
9.28 AM at 21.5c, 1,185 lots bought up.
11.59 AM at 22c, 1,821 lots bought up.

It is my guess that this REIT has attracted the attention of more funds and big time investors. Something might just be brewing. The OBV is rising strongly, a sign of heavy accumulation.  The MFI is rising towards 50%, a sign of positive buying momentum.  The MACD has turned up sharply towards the signal line, ready for a bullish crossover in negative territory. Unless the MACD crosses upwards back into positive territory, what we have today could just be a rebound although the very high volume is encouraging.

A further upmove in price should test 23c, a many times tested resistance level, once more. Is this REIT going to move up out of its trading range finally?  Only time will tell. 

My strategy in a rangebound situation: Sell into strength at resistance and accumulate on weakness at support.  I sold the units I collected at 20.5c last week at 21.5c resistance for a quick gain today.  I am queueing to sell more at 23c, the top of the trading range, tomorrow. 23c is a long term resistance and would be harder to overcome. If I do manage to sell more at 23c tomorrow, I would be left with 75% of my original position which I would leave to enjoy any breakout if it should take place. Always hedge.

Create more passive income with limited capital.

I have blogged about how Warren Buffet is a "know something" investor whereas I started out as a "know nothing" investor to being a "know a bit more" investor and, now, a "know a bit more than a bit" investor. Warren Buffet buys a lot of something which he thinks is a winner whereas for the rest of us it seems that diversification is the way to go. See: Excuse me, are you an investor?

Obviously, as is seen in my blog's header, I am more interested in building a reliable passive income stream than anything else. So, yield is a big thing for me and REITs naturally have a role to play in my strategy.

The meltdown in the global stock markets after the Lehman Brothers crisis shocked me out of complacency and into action, action which saw me beefing up my FA and picking up TA. I refused to be beaten and I was furiously reading and updating my knowledge, reviewing my past mistakes and planning for the future. 

REITs are a big part of my portfolio and they gave me much angst during the crisis. I also blogged about the lessons learnt. See: High yields: Successes, failures and the in betweens.

I went on to accumulate more units in REITs which met my selection criteria and currently the top three holdings in my portfolio are REITs.  They are Saizen REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and LMIR.  These are all trading at big discounts to their respective NAVs, they have low gearing (or in Saizen REIT's case, lowered gearing) and high yields (or in Saizen REIT's case, potential high yield).

I was not a unitholder of Saizen REIT when they recapitalised.  I do not have any historical baggage.  I only looked at the numbers in mid 2009 and decided that there was immense value and that there was potential for a very high yield when income distributions resume. Today, the fundamentals have improved and my opinion has not changed. Persistent insider buying suggests a high level of confidence that the REIT is undervalued and that income distribution will resume as promised.  I also like the fact that Credit Suisse is now a major unitholder of the REIT.  See: Saizen REIT: 3Q FY2010 results.

I was a unitholder of MI-REIT and I was not very pleased with the recapitalisation package proposed late last year but I recognised that it was the best way to strengthen the REIT as there were no other viable alternatives (even though the CEO of CIT claimed there was). The renamed REIT is stronger in its balance sheet which is the most important thing in any business, in my opinion.  Why bother objecting to the recapitalisation plan on the grounds that unitholders' equity would be heavily diluted if the balance sheet remained terminally ill? The renamed REIT has the lowest gearing for industrial property REITs in Singapore now, next to the new kid on the block, CLT.  See: AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT).

I have always been a unitholder of LMIR and I stayed positive on the Indonesian economy through the crisis. LMIR's very low gearing means there is little chance of it going to unitholders for funds. In fact, it has more room to gear up if there should be yield accretive purchases available. Even though some might be unhappy with a lack of growth in dpu in the current timeframe and how the forward hedging of the Rupiah/S$ exchange rate does not allow dpu to benefit from the stronger Rupiah, I remain sanguine about the situation largely because this REIT is still delivering a very healthy yield in excess of 10% at the current price. See: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.

Recently, some suggested that I might be overexposed to REITs.  In my usual way, I told them that it really does not matter to me if something I am investing in is a REIT or a company as long as it is able to satisfy certain criteria I have of which high yield is one. I rather concentrate my limited resources on a few good REITs than to spread out over tens of REITs and companies for the sake of safety through diversification.  I think Warren Buffet got it right to concentrate rather than diversify, in such an instance.

Many bloggers are quite comfortable revealing how much they receive in dividends on a monthly basis. I am somewhat less open but I will say that in the month of May, a big chunk of my dividends came from LMIR.  In the month of June, I am expecting a similar amount of income distribution from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.  Between LMIR and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, the annualised income distributions I receive could be as much as 4x my monthly salary. It is like getting 4 extra months of bonus every year. You like the idea? I do too.

Things should get better from here as from the month of September, income distribution from Saizen REIT would add to my passive income stream. I might just stop trading the market and sit back, relax and let the passive income stream in.  Of course, it remains to be seen if my calculations as to Saizen REIT's potential income distribution would come to pass.  See: Replies from AK71: All things Saizen REIT.

I remember watching and very much enjoying a cooking program in my teenage days, "If Yan can cook, so can you!". Now, I say to anyone who wants to create more passive income with limited capital, "If AK71 can do it, so can you!"  See: Seven steps to creating passive income from the stock market.

Saizen REIT: Insider purchases continue.

26 May 2010:

Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee, spouse of Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon, has purchased 300,000 warrants of Saizen REIT (“Warrants”) on the open market. Mr. Wong is therefore also deemed to be interested in the 300,000 Warrants owned by Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee and held by HSBC as depository agent.

Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received: 6.5c.

Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon's deemed interest now stands at 19,373,390  Units or 2.033% of current issued share capital. 

Given the weakness in the stock market which has made valuations more attractive, I have considered increasing my exposure to Saizen REIT through purchasing more of its warrants.  Warrants, however, do not get any income distribution and that is a big negative for me. 

Technically, things remain somewhat dicey as it remains to be seen if the unit price of Saizen REIT would be pushed down further by the declining 100wMA or if the support provided by the 50wMA would prevail.  If I were not informed by TA, I would have simply gone ahead and bought many more Saizen REIT units as the price retreated.  Marrying FA and TA has made me more cautious and a recent purchase made with the retreat in price was a smallish hedge.
 

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Recent insider purchases.
Charts in brief: 27 May 10 (Part 2).

Charts in brief: 27 May 10 (Part 2).

Healthway Medical: The MACD is poised for a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. MFI is just above the oversold region while OBV has been in gradual decline.  Technically, not very inspiring although the 14c support has been recaptured.  This is a long term support provided by the 200dMA which has flattened.

The shorter term downtrend is obvious with both the 20d and 50d MAs declining. Overcoming the 20dMA resistance would probably see 15.5c tested as a significant resistance level.  Another chance to sell at resistance? Perhaps. Good luck to all who are still vested.

LMIR: An impressive white candle day. MFI formed a higher low and is rising.  OBV is rising. MACD has turned up towards the signal line.Without higher volume on an up day, we have to remain somewhat sceptical of the upmove but an upday is always welcomed. I would now wait to see if the upward movement continues. I expect resistance to any continuing upward movement in price at 47c which was the support level which failed on 19 May. This was rather recent and is still fresh in the minds of market participants.
 

NOL: Buying momentum has been improving with the MFI rising.  OBV has been rising strongly too, suggesting accumulation is robust. A white engulfing candle formed today after a black spinning top yesterday. This confirmed the black spinning top as a reversal signal.  Expect further resistance at $1.94 and $1.99.

Saizen REIT: It is quite obvious that there is some weakness in the short term.  If the tension in the Korean peninsula should escalate, more nervous investors might sell their investments in Saizen REIT. This, unfortunately, is not something we could have anticipated or controlled.  Fundamentally, Saizen REIT is improving over time and its income stream is stable and secure. 15.5c remains a significant support.  The next significant support is at 14.5c.

SPH: Things are turning around, it seems.  A white candle day with MFI and OBV rising. MACD has gone flat which allows the distance with the signal line to lessen. Immediate support provided by the 200dMA at $3.70 while immediate resistance is at $3.78.  Overcoming $3.78 would find further resistance at $3.82 where the fast descending 20dMA seems poised to form a dead cross with the 100dMA in the coming sessions.

Starhub: Price has not been able to recapture the 200dMA support so far. $2.14 remains the immediate resistance. Although MFI has been rising, forming higher lows, OBV has not been as enthusiastic.  This suggests that we have positive buying momentum but accumulation is weak. MACD is still declining in negative territory and the downtrend is still very much intact.

A successful break above the 200dMA would find resistance at $2.19, the top of a base formation which lasted a few months.  Upside seems limited and going long at this point seems less likely to be rewarding. Any decline in price from here should see initial support at $2.06, the neckline of a reverse head and shoulders formation seen in November 09.

"We could have had an interim bottom of some kind - had an incredibly negative spate with really big volume on the downside," says Danielle Park, president of Venable Park Investment Council and author of Juggling Dynamite. "I think the themes we're concerned about today are like the volcanic cloud over Europe. It'll blow away for a little while and then it'll come back." 
Posted May 26, 2010 05:09pm EDT by Aaron Task



Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.

Charts in brief: 27 May 10 (Part 1).

CLSA notes S-REITs offer yield of 7.1% vs yields of 5.3% from telcos, 3.0% from market.
 
“Unlike before, where S-REITs’ dividends could see further dilution from recapitalization exercises, we would argue that with a lower sector gearing and stable physical asset yields, most REITs would not need to recapitalise further. Hence, earnings and dividends are more insulated from any possible dilution,” says the research house.

S-REITs give better yields vs telcos, market says CLSA
Thursday, 27 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI rises 1.6% to 2,739.70 at closing
Thursday, 27 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Another up day for the STI on respectable volume. We will lose a trading day tomorrow as it is Vesak Day.  We can only cross our fingers and hope that global stock markets continue to strengthen tomorrow so that the STI could have a decent chance of continuing this rebound next Monday.

Courage Marine: This counter strengthened ever so slightly to close at 18.5c.  The BDI is up again at 4,209. The longer term support of 17.5c is holding as price formed a white hammer today on thin volume. I like this company's strong fundamentals. The technicals are turning up and I've bought some at 18c as a hedge.

MFI has formed higher lows and emerged from the oversold region. The MACD is turning up towards the signal line. Courage Marine might just be a laggard and might just play catch up if movement in the BDI remains favourable.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: A rebound is underway. Volume expanded as MFI and BDI rose in tandem. The MACD has turned up towards the signal line since it started its decline ten sessions ago. Expecting strong resistance at 21.5c.  Overcoming 21.5c would give this counter a chance at retesting old highs at 23c.

CapitaMalls Asia: Volume expanded today as we have another white candle day. Price touched a high of $2.13 before retreating to $2.11.  The trendline resistance has done its job at $2.12.

MFI continues to rise, forming higher lows.  OBV is rising too.  MACD is rising in negative territory.  If the next session sees price closing above $2.12, we could see $2.19 tested as the next resistance. If this does not happen, price is likely to go lower, seeing that it is a symmetrical triangle and the downtrend could continue. I am no longer vested in this counter, having cut my losses in last week's rebound. Good luck to those who are still vested.

FSL Trust: Price has detached itself further from the lower limits of the Bollinger bands. It is quite obvious that OBV has stopped declining, suggesting that distribution activities have come to an end for now. MFI has formed a higher low and is still rising.  The MACD looks set to form a bullish crossover with the signal line, although it is still in negative territory.  The worst is probably over for this counter. For anyone who has been waiting to go long on this counter, it seems fairly safe to put in a hedge now although further volatility to the downside cannot be discounted.

Golden Agriculture: Reached a high of 52c only to close at 50.5c.  From the candlesticks, it would seem that 50.5c is an important resistance level.  Successfully overcoming this would find resistance at 52.5c and 54c.  Could it retest 56c, where we now find the flat 100dMA?

Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.

Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.

STI rises 1.7% to 2,696.02 at closing
Wednesday, 26 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: The BDI closed above 4,000 at 4,187.  That is up 6.188%.  Courage Marine, however, closed lower at 17.5c while Cosco, NOL and STX Pan Ocean rose. This, in my opinion, is an invitation to buy more shares of Courage Marine. 17.5c is a long term support and downside should be limited.  Another hedge, perhaps.

SPH: Formed a white hammer and recaptured the 200dMA at the same time.  This is a bullish reversal signal.  Resistance to be found at $3.82 to $3.84 which are price levels at which are found many times tested candlestick resistance and supports.  The 100dMA is also at $3.82 while the descending 20dMA is fast approximating $3.84. As the MACD is still descending in negative territory, this is likely to be just a rebound.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: MACD is still drawing away downwards from the signal line as the histrogram turned green. MFI is still in oversold territory. 20c has been established as the new support. Any upward movement in price is likely to be capped by the gap resistance at 21.5c which is also where we find all the MAs bunching up.

LMIR: A gravestone doji suggests a failed attempt to move higher in price.  OBV turned up but the buying momentum is weak as suggested by a lower high on the MFI. Fundamentals are still good but I would wait and see due to the very weak technicals.

FSL Trust: A smaller white candle forming in the middle of a preceding larger black candle, we have a bullish harami setup.  If this setup is valid, price could continue higher to test 50c. The MACD is closing in on the signal line while the MFI is rising sharply. The technicals certainly suggest that the downward momentum is exhausted and a rebound is looking more likely.

CapitaMalls Asia: Nice white candle day. MFI formed a higher low. MACD averted a bearish crossover with the signal line. If price continues to move higher tomorrow, we would have a higher low.  Next resistance at $2.12 which was the support that failed on 4 May. This coincides with the trendline resistance. Going higher would find resistance at $2.19, an important support that held up in February. $2.19 is also where we find the descending 50dMA.

Saizen REIT: Another anxious seller.  This time at 3pm, 1.7m shares at 15c. FA is about value and TA is about price. So, the market could get quite irrational.  The next support, if 15c fails to hold up, is at 14.5c.  If the market is willing to sell to me cheap, I am willing to buy.  As of now, the 12 months uptrend is still intact.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 25 May 10.

Charts in brief: 25 May 10.

On 20 May 2010, I said that "to keep a semblance of an uptrend, the next low formed by the STI should be higher than 2,660 points." Today,the STI closed below 2,660. The uptrend is broken and we have a bloodbath.

STI drops 2.7% to 2,650.61 at closing
Tuesday, 25 May 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: CPO closed 2.17% lower today at RM2,436.  The downtrend is reinforced.  Golden Agriculture's share price has weakened as well to close at 48c. Further weakness would test support at 46c, 45.5c and 42c.  This counter is still looking for its bottom.  Not a good time to go long here.

Courage Marine: BDI is up 2.575% at 3,943 and yet Courage Marine's share price weakened somewhat today, touching a low of 17.5c before closing at 18c.  17.5c has significance as the base price of the double bottom formed over the last few months.  Was what we saw today the base of the third bottom? A triple bottom in the making? Volume has been reducing as the price pulled back. BDI has been rising but Courage Marine's share price has been in decline. The signs are too tempting and I bought some shares at 18c. Just a hedge.

SPH: On 23 May, I mentioned "there would probably be a lower entry price to go long on this counter. I would wait and see." Closing below its 200dMA signals more downside to come.

Let us see if the support at $3.62 would hold up if tested.  This is where we find the rising 50wMA.

Saizen REIT: The news that North Korea is getting ready for war with South Korea seems to have spooked some investors.  One person sold more than 2.3m shares at 4.01pm at 15.5c a share.  This caused the 15.5c buy queue to be wiped out. Saizen REIT has not closed at 15.5c since January this year. However, a look at the weekly chart confirms that the longer term uptrend is still intact as price is still being supported by a rising 50wMA. I would wait and see.

Related post:
STI: Falling through the 200dMA.
Charts in brief: 24 May 2010.