Tea with AK71: A simple meal.

Friends are constantly amazed by how little money I could spend on food. Well, if we cook our own meals, we could save quite a bit of money and we could have a healthy meal for even less money. I think the idea that many people in affluent countries like Singapore eating too much rich food is quite true.

Let me share with you one of my favourite low cost and healthy meals: barley and winter melon. This is really a meal that kills two birds with one stone. Very rare.

You know how much money those packet drinks cost? Lemon Barley drink from Yeo's cost $2.40 for six 250ml packets, if I remember correctly. I feel that the drink is not even nice. Tastes like syrup.

Here is what I do. I buy a small packet of barley for 90c and a packet of sugared winter melon strips for only $4.50 (1kg pack). I get these from a Chinese medicine hall near my home. The barley and winter melon strips are enough for making at least 24 litres (usually more) of barley winter melon drink and eight meals! Really? Really!

Put about a tea cup worth of barley in a pot and wash clean. Fill the pot with water and set on a gas stove to boil. Once it has come to a boil, switch off the gas and add sugared winter melon strips for sweetness. Leave it for an hour to cool and pour the barley water into a 1.5 litre container meant for hot water. Then, fill up the pot with water and set to boil again. So, we would have another 1.5 litre of barley water.

Now, we have our drink which I usually take two days to consume. What about the meal I was talking about? After pouring out the second pot of barley water, let the barley and winter melon in the pot cool further. Then, transfer into a bowl for a nutritious meal which is rich in Germanium! Barley is a healthier choice compared to white rice too.

No prizes for guessing what did I have for lunch today. ;)

Tea with AK71: Cheating our fellow human beings 101.

A few years ago, I was involved in a motor vehicle accident. A motorcyclist crashed into the side of my car but claimed that I crashed into him. It was also "fortunate" for him that he had an instant witness in a car behind my car. The witness also happened to be someone familiar with the ways of insurance claims. I was helpless.

I made a police report after the incident and called my insurance company. I was called to the Traffic Police headquarters days later to make another statement. Strangely, the police officer seemed to know that "witness" as he asked me if the person was of a certain height, built, looks and if he wore glasses. A regular visitor?

Well, in the end, I received a letter from the Traffic Police for a fine of $200 and was given 9 demerit points. I was devastated. My perfect driving record was ruined. But what could I do? Friends asked me to appeal but I just decided to let it go. Just hope that I would not have such bad luck again.

I also found out later from my car insurance company that they had to compensate the motorcyclist some $15K for a broken toe! I am sure the toe eventually healed.  It was an expensive experience as my car insurance premium shot up the following year plus the fact that I paid to repair the damage to the side of my car where the collision took place.

I was told by the car workshop mechanic that such "accidents" were on the rise then. He told me that the claims would usually involve the same few people and after a while, the Traffic Police would investigate and make arrests. Apparently, such scams were not new and happened many years before as well. Just "suay" (bad luck) for me.

Why the sudden melancholic flashback? Well, I was getting my daily dose of news and these were a couple of articles that made me wonder why are there such people in the world:

Liyana, 24, said she "cheated" hundreds of men by "selling" her seductive pictures on social networking sites like Tagged and Facebook. "Through my online profile, I openly offer massage services. However, those offers are actually fake. In a day, I can cheat five to six men. Before even meeting me, they are willing to bank in 100 ringgit (US$33) to 150 ringgit into my account," she said, adding she disappears or give excuses to the men after receiving the money.

Read article here.

The public should also be wary of “fake accidents” where a pedestrian would would claim to have been knocked over by a car and would then demand compensation from the driver.

Read article here.

As the Chinese saying goes: 防人之心不可无. We must always be wary of others.

Equities in USA and Europe to do better in 2011.

Dr. Marc Faber shares his latest views on global equities in this interview with CNBC Asia last month.



I think what we should realise is that equities in USA and Europe could outperform equities in emerging markets by simply having relatively smaller corrections. It does not necessarily mean that they would outperform on the upside, they could just be less dramatic on the downside. Now, that is sobering.

However, Dr. Marc Faber's advice is still to stay in equities and commodities as these are expected to do much better than bonds and cash in the next decade.

"I am very negative about the world, because I think that what caused the crisis in 2008 was excessive credit growth, excessive leverage in the system, and now the private sector is de-leveraging, but governments are printing money, and through huge fiscal deficits are creating even more debt growth. So in other words, what killed the economy is now being applied to revive the economy, and I think this will lead to a disaster. But if you think it through and you believe in the disaster scenario I'm envisioning, then you will be better off in equities and in commodities than in government bonds and cash."

Genting SP: Bearish engulfing candle.

A really bad day for Genting SP as price action formed a bearish engulfing candle. Price started the day at $2.15 and closed at $2.06. What is worrisome for long holders here is the fact that volume expanded quite a lot on a black candle day. In fact, it is the highest since 3 December 2010.

The confluence of 20d, 50d and 100d MAs at $2.13 could well be the immediate resistance now while trendline resistance is at $2.19. Immediate support is at $2.00 which is followed by $1.92, $1.85 and $1.78 which is provided by the rising 200dEMA. So, is Genting SP's share price going to crash? Who knows but let us take a look at the weekly chart for a look at the longer term picture.

Bollinger bands are squeezing for an imminent change in direction after a period of low volatility, it seems. The MACD completed a bearish crossover with the signal line in late November 2010 and has been in decline since. The OBV suggests that distribution has been going on since the middle of September 2011. Both MFI and RSI show a decline in momentum. Through all these, volume has been declining. However, if today's volume were to be replicated through the rest of the week, volume would be very high this week.

Things look precarious. Let us see what Lady Luck has in store for Genting SP.

Genting Bhd., a Malaysian casino group, fell the most in two weeks after Citigroup Inc. cut its revenue forecast for the company’s Singapore unit to reflect a possible drop in gaming volume at Resorts World Sentosa.
Monday, 07 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Genting SP: A rebound or a reversal?

CapitaMalls Asia: Improving technicals.

Price overcame resistance provided by the 50dMA at $1.93 and touched a high of $1.96 before closing at $1.95, forming a white spinning top in the process. Volume expanded nicely as the MACD rose higher. Could we see the MACD crossing into positive territory soon? That would signify the return of positive momentum.

Connecting the highs of 3 and 17 January gives us a trendline resistance. We could see $2.00 tested next if the bouyant price action follows through. It also remains to be seen if $1.93 is resistance turned support. I am monitoring this counter as I get ready to divest some.

Related post:
Capitamalls Asia: Broke out of downtrend but still at resistance.

Tea with AK71: Some of my stuff (Part 2).

One of my favourite possessions is my wallet! I truly can't live without it! This was bought with money from my first pay cheque 15 years ago. It is a Heritage brand genuine leather wallet made in W. Germany and cost slightly more than $100 then. I remember I got it from Metro in Marina Square. The leather is really nice and soft. Good quality stuff. I can't find this brand anymore in Singapore. If you know where to get it, let me know. I would like to standby a replacement wallet, just in case.

This next item is a collapsible umbrella which I bought from Japan in 1998. Cost: JPY1,000 (equivalent to $15 in those days). I really like how compact it is and it fits into my briefcase. I am never caught without an umbrella when it rains. I doubt I could get one at the same price now even if it was still available. 

Do you have some old stuff which you are still using today? They don't make things the way they used to, do they? So what if they are old? Old is gold. :)

Related post:
Tea with AK71: Some of my stuff (Part 1).

Healthway Medical: To buy or not to buy?

 I received a call from a friend earlier today and the conversation went like this, to the best of my memory:

Fren: Hey, are you still vested in Healthway?

AK: Yes, I have some shares left.

Fren: Not selling?

AK: Well, you know I sold off most of my stake a long time ago. Whatever I have left now are either from the rights issue or regular scrip dividends.

Fren: Consider buying more?

AK: If I do buy some now, it's more for trading.

Fren: Why?

AK: I've blogged about it. Go read my blog. Haha... The numbers are not very good. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/11/healthway-medical-3q-2010-results.html

Fren: Well, the price went up to 17.5c a while back, you know, but it is back down now.

AK: Yes, I know. I bought some at 15.5c and sold at 17c in December last year. This was because of some news that there could be a new investor.

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/12/healthway-medical-and-first-reit-good.html

Fren: Hmmm.. I read somewhere that we should invest in Healthway Medical now.

AK: Really? Any reason given for the call?

Fren: Well, I want to hear from you because I know you used to be big on Healthway Medical.

AK: Yup. I was but that was in mid 2009 when it was really undervalued. Not now. You know this. I blogged about it.

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/02/healthway-medical-updated-valuation.html

Fren: The blog I went to says that we should buy shares of Healthway Medical because Singapore healthcare stocks are hot now and most of the healthcare counters' share prices have shot up. Healthway Medical should be next.

AK: Hmmmm... It sounds rather speculative to me.

Fren: But you are still vested, right?

AK: I always try not to divest all my investment in any company just in case the price goes up further. However, you must remember that whatever I have left is fully paid for with gains from divesting most of my stake in the company last year. So, if I show any interest in the company's performance, it is mostly academic.

Fren: So, you don't think I should buy?

AK: Haha.. This is the question I fear most. Fundamentally, the numbers have been rather dismal. The management has sold a very compelling proposition to investors. Could it deliver? Full year results should be announced sometime this month. Wait for it.

Fren: OK, then, what about a quick trade since you made money in your trade recently.

AK: Honestly, I was just lucky that my chart reading that time turned out right. I could do a TA for Healthway Medical later. Check my blog this evening.

We talked a bit more about other stuff before hanging up. I forgot to ask my friend which blog he went to. I guess it is not important but the conversation shows how much influence blogs could have and I have to keep reminding myself whenever I blog to be very careful and not make sweeping statements. If blogging means saying anything we want just because we feel like it, we are not any different from, er, anyway, here is the chart for Healthway Medical:

From the MFI, there is no doubt that this counter is oversold but that is gradually being corrected as we see it forming higher lows. So, the selling pressure has eased. A quick look at the OBV confirms this as it has mostly flatlined.

The MACD seems to be poised for a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory and we have a buy signal on the histogram. However, note that the signal was on the back of very low volume. So, I wonder at its strength. The 20dMA is completing a dead cross with the 50dMA and this is at 15.5c, exactly where the price closed in the last session. Could be a strong resistance. Conventional wisdom is to sell at resistance in a downtrend. Trendline resistance would be at 16.5c in the next few sessions.

However, if a higher low is formed in the near future, and it seems that there is a chance of this happening, we should look out for signs of possible reversal. I am not adding to my long position here. I will wait and see.

Tea with AK: Some of my stuff (Part 1).

I was chatting in LP's cbox and I cannot remember how the conversation went but I talked about some of my stuff which is really old but still in use. 

I mentioned that I have a T-shirt which I bought in Secondary 2 which I am still wearing today. 





It is very comfortable and I even wear it out sometimes. 

If we do our sums quickly, this shirt is 26 years old this year!

A cboxer, Crystal, said:

no no. i believe but i find it amazing in terms of the condition. cos my secondary school t shirt can only wear @ home liao.... what washing machine and washing powder u use!

I was really amused by what another cboxer, Evolution, said:

Evolution: lobster taller than small girl , ak's t shirt older than evo

CapitaMalls Asia: Broke out of downtrend but still at resistance.

A white spinning top was formed on low volume in the last session. Closing at $1.93 is exactly at resistance provided by the declining 50dMA as identified in my last blog post on the counter.

The MACD has just completed a bullish crossover with the signal line but it is still in negative territory. Could we see it crossing into positive territory soon? The MFI's uptrend is intact as the trendline support was tested again. We will need to see price or volume (or both) improving in the next session to send the MFI bouncing higher.

Although the bias is for price to weaken, in case of a breakout, the next resistance levels to watch are the high of $1.97 touched on 17 Jan, $2.00 candlestick resistance and $2.04 which is likely to be a strong resistance as that is where the declining 100dMA would approximate soon. Price could also go higher because it has, once again, broken out of its downtrend, although on low volume.

Fundamentally strong but technically weak, taking profit as the counter experiences a rebound could be a good idea. I would reduce by selling some as resistance levels are tested and keep the rest just in case price does go higher.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Testing resistance.

Tea with AK71: A fishy CNY tale.

I went to my favourite malls again today. Parked at MBLM. Ate at Din Tai Fung, got complimentary parking for 4 hours and took a walk to MBS. A well planned outing is a happy outing.

Some were tossing raw fish (Yu Sheng) to usher in good luck and prosperity for the Chinese New Year,

while some followed the example of the Lord Buddha by feeding bits of themselves to some hungry fish. ;-p

祝大家新年吉祥!

First REIT: Buying more?

Some readers would remember that I announced a fair value of 80c per unit for First REIT. This was on 1 Dec 10.  In that blog post, I made the following comments and also did some calculations:

A friend called me yesterday and said he might buy into First REIT with a view of getting more excess rights. I gave him my full support and told him he is likely to make money in this exercise. It turned out that he didn't get any yesterday.

Assuming that he had bought 4 lots at 98.5c /unit, his average price including rights units would be:

98.5 x 4 + 50c x 5  /9 = 71.55c /unit

At the estimated annualised DPU of 6.4c for 2011, it would mean a yield of 8.94%.  Not bad.  If he managed to get 1 lot of excess rights later on, the average price would be 69.4c which means a yield of 9.22%! I like this.

Now, for people who divested their stake during CR when First REIT's price closed in on its then NAV/unit, is buying back at the current price of 76c silly? It would seem so as not selling their stake then would mean a lower average price now in the region of 70c to 71.5c per unit.  They would also have been eligible for excess rights which would have lowered their average price further.

Of course, buying more, increasing their long position, when the counter's unit price plunged to 66c XR would have been doubly rewarding.

However, recognising the strength of this REIT and believing that it is undervalued even at 76c, it might be a good move for some to invest in the REIT once more or to increase their exposure, whichever the case may be. This is from a purely FA perspective, of course.

Personally, I am not adding to my long position. Why? I have a sizeable exposure to this REIT with costs ranging from 42c to 96.5c. 42c? Yup, those I bought during the last bear market. 96.5c are those I bought when the counter went CR which are really 70.67c after taking into account the rights. So, unless the price is at a very attractive level, I have no compelling reason to buy more.

Now, I am going to look at the technicals which are looking interesting.

On the daily chart, right away, we see that the Bollinger Bands are squeezing. An imminent change in direction after a period of low volatility? Which way would it go? The MACD has been falling as a bearish crossover was completed sessions ago. Momentum is weakening. Immediate support is at 75c.

I turn to the weekly charge to look at the longer term technicals. A white spinning top 4 weeks ago was followed by a doji which was in turn followed by a hangman. All possible reversal signals. Certainly, price action has been pushing the upper band and seems to have grown tired. Lower highs on the MFI confirms the tiring longer term demand. Although 75c has been identified as the immediate support in the daily chart, see how the weekly chart suggests that strong support is at 72c? This is where the rising 20wMA would be approximating soon. Caution is advised. There could possibly be a better time to buy more.

I continue to believe in the strong fundamentals of First REIT but at 76c, given the current technicals, I am not a buyer.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

Cache Logistics Trust: Weakness after XD.

Cache Logistics Trust went XD and the price gapped down, forming a big black candle, rebounding a tad as it hit support at 97c provided by 2 longer term MAs, the 100d and the 200d MAs. This is a familiar pattern. If we look at the candlestick of 3 Nov 10, it was the same story of weakness after XD. Could we see the unit price fall further? Quite likely. I have been waiting for a nice entry price for some time now. When to buy?

On 23 October 10, I said, "On 29 July, CLT was trading at $1.01 per share. This would give a yield of 6.77% based on an annualised DPU of 6.84c. Its unit price is now 98.5c, not much lower. That's unattractive for me although I recognise that it is a relatively safe investment." Read blog post here.

On 16 December 10, I went on to say, "With an annualised DPU of 7.76c, at today's closing price of 94c, the distribution yield would be 8.26%. Still not attractive enough for me but I recognise its strong numbers which would convince me to start a small long position if price would decline to test its historical low of 91.5c for a yield of 8.48%." Read blog post here.

Technically and on hindsight, 94c would have been a great entry price as price touched a low of 93.5c on 16 Dec and went on to touch a high of S$1 on 28 Jan. Fundamentally, I notice the annualised DPU increased from 6.84c to 7.76c. This is a strong passive income generator and the numbers show it. More than ever, I want a slice of the pie.

Now, 94c would stay in the heads of market participants. People like myself who were waiting for a retest of 91.5c would now wait for a retest of 94c instead before entering. Judging from past data, price could continue to weaken for the next 4 to 6 weeks. I am going to watch this as I definitely like this REIT for its strong numbers which justify the lower distribution yield.

The MACD in the last session completed a bearish crossover with the signal line while the RSI broke its trendline support as it falls further from the overbought territory. OBV is rather flat but definitely lower than  2H2010. Signs suggest that people currently vested in this Trust are strong holders investing for income. However, momentum is suffering as some are selling after the counter went XD. I shall wait and see.

Gearing: 23.7%
NAV/unit: 89c
Annualised DPU: 7.76c
Interest cover ratio: 9.3x

It is important to note that Cache Logistics Trust is currently paying out 100% of its income and this would come to an end in December 2011. From 2012, it would pay out at least 90% of its income. As an aside, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is paying out 97.1% of its income on 15 March (3Q FY2011).

See 4Q2010 presentation slides here.

Tea with AK71: Lucky 4D from ASSI.

In a blog post many moons ago, I asked if gambling was a bad thing. In that post, I said "From a money management standpoint once more, if we budget a small sum of money for entertainment and classify gambling as one form of entertainment, as long as we stay within what is budgeted, gambling would not become financially crippling and it might even be rewarding.  The Chinese people have a saying, "mai ge xi wang", or "buying a hope".  This, I feel, is not a bad thing." Read blog post here.

I have a habit of buying a few BIG SWEEP tickets every month. I would also try my luck at TOTO if the prize money is big enough such as the recent $5m TOTO.

Now, with the Chinese New Year coming up, perhaps I should try my luck once more! If we look at our telephones, we would realise that we could dial ASSI and the numbers are 2774. Could these be the lucky numbers for betting at 4D in the first week of the Chinese New Year?

Wishing all Chinese readers a Happy and Prosperous Chinese New Year! GONG XI FA CAI!

Just found this on YouTube. Not one of the traditional Chinese New Year songs. A mixture of new, old and funky! I like:

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buy at 21c.

I am still in the queue to buy more of this REIT at 21c. With an annualised DPU of 2.04c, buying at 21c would give an attractive yield of 9.71%. Technically, 21c seems like a strong support as well, underpinned by the 200dMA.

I like to use the MFI as a measurement of demand and it is heartening to see that the uptrend is intact although attempts by the index to rise have been resisted several times at 50% since 21 Jan. An expansion in volume as price pushes higher would see the index move higher as well. When would this happen? Your guess is as good as mine. Bear in mind that the index could weaken to retest its trendline support as well and this could happen if volume or price weakens, or both.

Informed by FA, I would simply accumulate on weakness. This was something written by OCBC Research a couple of months ago:

The industrial sector typically lags the office sector by a few quarters. With the upbeat momentum in the office space, Industrial REITs stand to capitalise on the spillovers to business parks, high-tech and light industrial buildings. In terms of forward yields, Industrial REITs also trade at a premium of 70 basis points to the broader sector. We are bullish on the industrial sector recovery and now have an OVERWEIGHT rating for the Industrial REITs subsector. 

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 21c at XD.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing resistance.

Although volume was lower than the previous session, price managed to overcome both resistance levels at $1.88 and $1.90. We could see the resistance provided by the descending 50dMA at $1.93 challenged next. Indeed, it could be argued at price is now at resistance provided by a trendline resistance at $1.92. Overcoming this resistance could see a retest of $1.97, the high of 17 Jan.

The RSI has broken out of 50% and is rising higher while the MFI is now testing 50% as resistance. So, initial observation suggests that although buying momentum is recovering, demand is not very strong. This is a fragile condition which could see things go either way. However, drawing a trendline support yields a very interesting picture. The MFI's uptrend is actually intact!

That $1.83 is now a support of some strength is indisputable. Market participants would remember it as the support which did not break. If this were to be tested once more, I am willing to bet that more buyers would emerge. So, although the longer term MAs are still in decline, the gently rising 20dMA tells a story of possible reversal. Although I am not adding to my long position, I am not a seller either.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.83.

CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.83.

CapitaMalls Asia gapped down, tested $1.83 support today and bounced off to close unchanged at $1.87. Although volume is pretty decent, it is lower than the previous session which was a black candle day.  The intra-day high of $1.88 was a many times tested support earlier this month and even if it should be taken out, the next resistance at $1.90 was also a many times tested support. This counter will have to climb a wall of worries, indeed, as supports are now resistance.

Although fundamentally strong, this counter remains technically weak as the MACD has just completed a bearish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. The MFI has also broken the 50% support to trend lower while the RSI is now resisted by the 50% line. Breaking resistance at $1.88 and $1.90 on high volume would give the counter a chance to retest resistance provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since breaking its nascent uptrend after breaking out of its multi-month downtrend, things are looking iffy. I am not adding to my long position until the technicals show that the uptrend is recaptured or a new one is formed.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Black hammer day.

Golden Agriculture: Resistance at 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture enjoyed a white candle day as price traded below the resistance provided by the 100dMA for most of the day. This white candle could be most misleading. In the previous session, although a black candle was formed, price closed at the 100dMA which acted as support.

So, am I saying that the share price would continue its fall in the next session? There is a good chance of this. However, due to the very steep fall in price in recent weeks, we could see the price moving higher to touch the trendline resistance which should be in the region of 73c in the next session or two.

TA is not about having a crystal ball and knowing exactly what would happen but TA is useful in that we would know exactly what to do if something happened.  So, in case price moved higher to 73c, I would reduce my long position. In case price moved lower, I would wait for it to go closer to the 200dMA at 63c before adding to my long position. That's my plan.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Testing 100dMA support.

STI off 1.3%; 3,090 worst case consolidation - DBS Vickers.

It adds, “equities remain one of the more attractive investment asset classes...in addition, the STI is not that far away from levels seen as attractive and where firm support lies.”

Monday, 31 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Raffles Education: Correction?

The fanfare that pushed up the share price of Raffles Education to touch a many months high of 35c came suddenly and provided the counter with a sugar rush which is now dissipating. The trendline support was broken four sessions ago and it now remains to be seen if the gentler trendline support below the 20dMA would be tested next. This is at 30c.

If I were to hazard a guess, 30c is likely to be a strong support as that is the price which formed the top of a small bowl before a breakout took place. Market participants would remember the price: not buying then led to missing out on a nice gain in the following sessions.

The MFI and the RSI show that the overbought condition has been corrected. The RSI is actually declining towards 50% and it would be interesting to see if 50% would act as support. The MFI which takes into consideration volume on top of price has flatlined just below the overbought region. This suggests that demand, although weaker, is still strong. Look at the trading volume and we see a semblance of a low volume pull back taking place. Buy more?

For anyone who wants to go long on this counter, being patient and waiting to buy some at supports in an uptrend is a good idea. I never like chasing. I rather like waiting for things to come to me.

Related post:
Raffles Education: A new property play?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 21c at XD.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT went XD today. Price closed at 21c but if we look at the trade summary, 6,459 lots were bought up at 21.5c while only 197 lots were sold down at 21c. I believe that support is strong for this counter at 21c. Remember that 21c is also where we find the rising 200dMA, a longer term MA.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this REIT and I will accumulate on weakness. For now, I look forward to receiving the income distribution on 15 March 2010.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3QFY2011.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 1.6% to 3,179.72 at the close of trading, erasing this year’s advance. The gauge fell 0.3% this month. All but three stocks in the benchmark index of 30 companies fell.
Monday, 31 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

ASSI 2010 Annual Report.

I am somewhat late in doing this. Somehow, it slipped my mind. Someone reminded me and, well, this is the report of how my blog did last year as promised.

Page loads, unique visitors and returning visitors all formed new records in the month of December 2010. The numbers in the chart are kind of small as this is a full year report. Let's see:

Page Loads: 
52,493 (92.87% increase from January 2010)

Unique visitors: 
32,169 (166.98% increase from January 2010)

Returning visitors: 
15,643 (175.89% increase from January 2010)

I think there are many who would come in to check on what are my latest thoughts on a daily basis which probably explains the 175.89% increase in returning visitors as well as the more modest 92.87% increase in page loads. Most are regular readers who would probably have read my older posts.

Although I am sure my blog would never be as popular as Xiaxue's or Mr. Brown's, that the number of unique visitors increased 166.98% from January to December 2010 is very encouraging. 32,169 unique visitors in December means there were more than 1,000 unique visitors per day on average.

I have said this before but no matter how many times I say it, it would never be enough: I have no doubt that I have some very loyal readers who are spreading the word.  Your support is encouraging and you can bet that I will continue blogging!  Thank you. :)

Tea with AK71: First cheque from AdSense.

Not long after I started this blog in December 2009, I signed up with Google AdSense to serve ads in the hope of making some pocket money on the side. A few months later, I took down all the ad spaces. This was after hearing rather negative stuff about bloggers being "banned" with little chance of being reinstated. I didn't want to have the same experience. Could be quite depressing, I thought.

However, a couple of months ago, while chatting with a fellow blogger, I was advised to just put up the ad spaces for AdSense again and if I did get banned, then, too bad for me. If I got paid, it would be a bonus. Mentally prepared thus, I ventured forth with AdSense once more.

Today, as I was sorting through four days worth of mail, I found a cheque from Adsense! My first cheque from AdSense! It added some cheer to a wet Sunday. :)

Tea with AK71: What does a bundle of new notes look like?

What does a bundle of new notes look like? More specifically, what does a bundle of new S$2 notes worth a total of S$2,000 look like? Here are a few photos taken from different angles:

It was my first time seeing notes wrapped up in "MAS" plastic shrink wrap. Very official looking.

OK, how did it feel like? Felt like a brick, a heavy one too.

Maybe, I am just a mountain tortoise. ;-p

Tea with AK71: Something from Hong Kong.

This is really funny. Took it off an English newspaper in Hong Kong. Didn't Wikileaks reveal that MM Lee said something about Kim Jong Il being attention seeking or something? ;-p

Golden Agriculture: Testing 100dMA support.

Back in Singapore. So nice to be back home! Although I am still feeling a bit unwell from the trip, I am sure I will be OK after a day or two. If I had stayed another day or two in Hong Kong, I would have been utterly miserable. It's the weather, I'm sure. I will have a blog post on this trip in my Travel Photos and Videos blog later this evening or tomorrow. Look out for it. ;)

A week ago, I said that "We could very well see the support provided by the 100dMA tested at 70c in the next session. If it should break, next support could be found at 66c where the rising 200dEMA would be approximating soon. The 200dEMA, being a long term MA, should be able to provide a much stronger support in case of further decline in price."

Well, price did not test the 100dMA in the following session but it did yesterday. In TA, it is hard to have exactitude but if we could get rough estimates right, that's not bad. OBV has gone lower which suggests continuing distribution. The 20dMA is about to complete a dead cross with the 50dMA. All eyes are now on the 100dMA and whether it could hold up as support. If it breaks, price could sink to 63c, the support provided by the flattening 200dMA. I might add to my long position then.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture.

CapitaMalls Asia: Black hammer day.

Feeling somewhat under the weather, I think the very cold and dry weather here is getting to me. No drinking session for me. I came back to the hotel, took a warm shower, drank herbal tea I bought from a convenience store and I am feeling so sleepy now. Looking forward to going back to tropical Singapore early tomorrow.

In a quick post last evening, I mentioned that CapitaMalls Asia's share price "closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious."

If I were not informed by TA, I could have bought more as price plunged today. Look at the high volume. I believe that the price weakness has brought out some shortists.

I received emails and comments regarding this counter. It is interesting that the counter is generating so much interest. To me, it is clear that many market participants are keeping an eye on the counter and waiting for clearer signs to go long here. Fundamentally, it is a strong company and technical weakness would offer opportunities for investors.

So, what am I doing here? Like I said, I have turned cautious and I am not adding to my position. I am waiting to see if the low of $1.83 would hold up as support. If it does hold up as support, I could add to my position. If $1.83 breaks, I would wait to see where is the next low.

Is there a chance of a reversal in the next session? A black hammer formed today as price gapped down at $1.88, touched a low of $1.85 before closing at $1.87. The bears won the day but the candlestick suggests some fierce fighting back by the bulls. So, although the black candle was formed on the back of much higher volume, there is some support.

Even if we know that a company has good fundamentals, waiting for the technicals to give clearer signs before going long is the way to go.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.89.

CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.89.

Price closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious. However, notice that the trading volume is, once again, very thin on a black candle day. It looks to me to be a continuation of a low volume pull back pattern.

Does low volume mean that price could not weaken further? Definitely not but if we look at the OBV, it is obvious that there isn't any distribution activity. In fact, if you ask me, the OBV has gone up slightly in the last 4 sessions which suggests mild accumulation. This is consistent with what I said in my last blog post that there are bargain hunters out there who are waiting to buy at lower prices.

So, what am I looking out for now? The previous low was at $1.87. This was formed earlier this month. Will price form a higher low at $1.89 and recapture the uptrend later on? Of course, we might have to draw a gentler trendline support too. Or will the price go down further to test $1.83? No one has the answer but with the very low volumes as price pulled back, I do not think there would be any drastic sell downs in the near future. I would wait for the situation to become clearer before making my next move.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Doji at $1.91.

SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

I was vested in E-pure when it was 20c a share thereabouts. This was back in early 2009. 

I was convinced that China's drive to keep its economy humming in the wake of the Lehman Brothers crisis would benefit the water infrastructure businesses. 





I was also heavily vested in Hyflux Water Trust at that time from 30c for the same reason.  

Read related blog post here.

E-pure was a Chinese company and was likely to be favored over Hyflux in China while Hyflux Water Trust was a business trust with zero gearing treating water for Chinese industrial estates and had a yield of about 17% at a unit price of 30c. 





I divested E-pure completely by the time it neared 60c a share and watched dumbfounded as the share price went on to form new highs, almost doubling from my sell price of close to 60c. 

Hyflux Water Trust was, of course, privatised a few months ago. 

Read related blog post here.





I have been wondering if I should re-invest in E-pure which has been renamed SoundGlobal for some time now. 

It remained on my watchlist but I simply refused to buy any of its shares at prices higher than 60c. 

That's just the memory effect working and, in this case, it seems to have paid off. Related post here.





I just told myself that if the price did not come down to more reasonable levels, there are always other investments out there.

Since hitting a high of $1.04 on 7 April 2010, this counter has not formed a higher high. It is currently hugging the lower Bollinger band as it fast approaches the lows of early September 2010 at 70c a share. 

The obvious difference is that the low of early September 2010 was part of a bottoming process and the MACD was getting ready for a bullish crossover with the signal line. 





The MACD is now declining rapidly in negative territory as its distance with the signal line widens. This is very bearish.

Having said this, both the MFI and RSI are in oversold territories and 70c, being a low that was the price of a successful bottoming process could provide some support. 

Whether it would hold up is another question. I would not speculate on the strength of the support here.





When to accumulate? 

We want to look out for possible positive divergence between price and the momentum oscillators or volume. 

We want to look out for the downtrend halting and clearer signs that price is breaking out of downtrend. 

I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. 





Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? 

I might if the other signs are encouraging.

CapitaMalls Asia: Doji at $1.91.

CapitaMalls Asia broke the trendline support today with price reaching $1.89 at one point before pushing back up above the trendline at $1.91 where it closed. For those who have been following my analyses so far, the question is how are things looking now?

Well, the weakness in price today brought out the bargain hunters as they pushed price back up to $1.91 and volume expanded modestly in the process. This suggests to me that at lower prices, buyers are waiting. However, it is quite obvious that the descending 50dMA is a strong resistance and people are probably just waiting to see if it could be overcome convincingly in future sessions. Breakout traders are waiting, I am sure. The 50dMA is currently at $1.94. Expect a wave of buying if resistance is taken out.

Volume has remained thin as trendline support is tested. Although I remain optimistic that price could move higher in the near future, that's just me. We really have to wait and see. I am no longer accumulating at the current support as I already have a sizeable position. We could very well see the counter trading sideways too.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.90 support.

Suntec REIT: Broke resistance.

I was just having a chat with Nick in LP's cbox not so long ago regarding REITs and their fair values. Nick mentioned that REITs with high gearing have little growth prospects and therefore will not see their unit price go up (i.e. yield will not compress). I think he mentioned that the stock market is rather efficient when it comes to REITs.

In theory, I agree with Nick. However, I mentioned that it is hard to be sure since how much a REIT should trade at is very often a matter of sentiments, this is the same with stocks. Certain REITs are small and are not covered by analysts. They could also be too small to interest institutional investors. Their unit prices could continue to languish even if they provide decent yields with relatively safe gearing. Certain REITs are obviously overvalued and give very low yields with relatively high gearing but they continue to enjoy much attention. For example, I would not bother buying into CMT. The yield is so unattractive.

Nick used Suntec REIT as an example of a REIT with high gearing and therefore it did not see its yield compress much. However, the last session saw Suntec REIT's unit price close at a high of $1.61, forming a wickless white candle, on the back of heavy volume. Yield is compressing and quite significantly too. The last time this REIT was at $1.61 was in Jun 2008!

Could we see this REIT's unit price move higher? A wickless white candle coupled with heavy volume is bullish. So, expectation is for price to move higher. However, the MFI is nearing overbought territory. In case of a pull back, it would be interesting to see if $1.58 could be resistance turned support.

Mr. Market is always right and he enjoys his hat tricks.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3QFY2011.

My first night on a working trip in Hong Kong and I am having trouble sleeping although I was feeling quite tired earlier. So, I went to the reception and purchased a card which allows me to have internet access for 3 hours for a fee of HK$40. Quite reasonable, I think.

First thing I did online was to check on results announced by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Its unit price touched 21c with 8 lots changing hands at that price in 4 transactions. Almost all of last session's trades were at 21.5c.

The recent weakness in this REIT's unit price could be attributed to some heavily vested investors anticipating a lower than expected DPU which came in at 0.51c, payable on 15 March 2011. The guidance was for 0.52c in a circular dated 22 Sep 2010. I am not at all surprised since I had expected a lower DPU of 0.5c myself when I revised the DPU and fair value of this REIT on 11 Dec 2010. Read my blog post here.

So, a DPU of 0.51c is rather pleasant for me. This could be due to the fact that "I did not take into consideration the other positive developments in the Market Update which is the 100% occupancy achieved for 15 Tai Seng Drive (85.7% as of 31 March 2010) and 23 Tai Seng Drive (84% as of 31 March 2010).  Conservatively, this should add about $400,000 to the REIT's annual rental income."

In its report, the management also said that the newly acquired property of 27 Penjuru Lane only contributed 78 days of rental income, being only acquired on 15 October 2010. So, could we expect next quarter's DPU to be marginally higher when the property contributes three month's worth of rental income to the REIT? Perhaps.

This REIT is still a strong proposition for anyone looking for a reliable stream of passive income. I have put in a BUY order at 21c in case the selling continues in the next session although I do not think anyone in his right mind would want to sell at that price.

Annualised DPU: 2.04c
Gearing: 32.7%
NAV/unit: 27c

See presentation slides here.