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First REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, ARA and Sabana REIT.

Monday, September 26, 2011

It is kind of late and I still have a long drive ahead of me. So, this will be a quick update with very simple charts.

My overnight buy order for First REIT at 76c was filled. My other overnight buy order at 74.5c was not filled although the unit price did go that low today.


Overnight buy order for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 19.6c was filled. I thought that many people would want to buy more units of this REIT at 19.5c, the last low. So, I queued 1 bid higher at 19.6c.


Towards the end of the day, I also bought shares in ARA at $1.13 and units in Sabana REIT at 86.5c.

Like I said in my last blog post on ARA, I did not put in an overnight buy order at $1.17 which was the next support I identified if $1.22 should fold. I said I would rather wait and see. Today, ARA's volume was rather low and $1.13 was a good 9c lower than $1.22. Could we see ARA at $1.08 next?


As for Sabana REIT, I would like to get this closer to 83.5c, its last low. At 83.5c, it would be giving a distribution yield of 10.5%. 86.5c is a few bids higher.


Looking at the chart now, I think I should have stuck to the original plan and waited for its unit price to get closer to 83.5c. Well, who knows for sure? Could have a bullish harami in the next session. ;)

Good luck to us all.

Making your first million dollars in real estate investment: Dreams and nightmares.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Often, we hear that investing in real estate is the fastest way to making the first million dollars.

We saw people in queues and offering blank cheques in buying frenzies for projects such as One Devonshire some two years ago. The buyers then would have bagged nice gains and many would have sold their properties by now.

Sometimes, the building specifications of the property do not even matter for buyers. Positive sentiments just drive them to pay whatever asking price is out there.

Building specifications? Yes, for example, when I buy a condominium, I will find out how many lifts serve each block and how many units are there per floor per block. This is very important to me because if there were too few lifts, the waiting time could be unbearably long especially if we were staying on a high floor.

A HDB point block has 2 lifts serving 25 floors and 4 units per floor . This means 1 lift for 48 units (remembering that ground level is the void deck). So, if a property has 36 floors and 3 units per floor, having 3 lifts is about right. We get 1 lift for 35 units.

So, the lift to units ratio is very important, wouldn't you think?

Apparently not. Southbank, a condominium along North Bridge Road, has 197 units in its residential block but only 3 lifts. This means 1 lift for almost 66 units. This ratio is worse than a HDB point block! I wouldn't buy a unit there but it does not mean that people who did would not make money from their purchase. Indeed, in two years, its price has appreciated a hefty 50% on average.

I also consider having ample parking lots essential. All too often, I hear friends living in some condominiums complaining that their visitors cannot find parking lots in their estates and some even got their wheels clamped for parking in lots designated for residents.

We see so many condominiums built with just 1 parking lot per unit these days. If a resident has two cars, he is in trouble. Of course, where are visitors going to park?

We see many condominiums built with enough parking lots for only 80% of the units just because the developments are a short distance from the nearest MRT station. If every resident owned a car, things could turn ugly.

We also see some condominiums these days with mechanical parking lots and I read that it takes 7 minutes for a car to be parked. Imagine if five people should come home at the same time. Could the fifth car's waiting time be 35 minutes?

Increasingly, we see newer condominiums being more and more marginal in that they are compromising on the day to day pragmatics. These are projects I would avoid but it does not mean that one would not make money in these projects, of course. It is just that if it is not a condo I would want to live in, I wouldn't buy it. Quite simple.

Of course, some would say that buying a piece of real estate is about location, location and location. Doesn't matter if it has enough lifts, parking lots or whether it is freehold or leasehold. I imagine this to be true for most but for me, it is more than just location.

Now, certain things I can see and analyse but certain things I can't. It is a bit like buying shares of companies. We can look at a developer's history and the project's specifications and asking price psf just like how we can look at a company's history, its numbers and its share price. However, there will always be things we cannot see.

I read in the news today that a very reputable developer in Singapore, Wheelock Properties, is being sued for S$14m "in compensation for defects that have been plaguing the estate for the last three years". We are talking about The Seaview.



Wheelock Properties is the developer of Ardmore Park, long regarded as the standard in luxury condominiums before SC Global came into the picture with even more grandiose developments. So, it came as a surprise to me that "in late 2009, building surveyors found at least 32 cases of defects in areas such as lift lobbies, the swimming pool, residential units and the basement car park.

"In addition, the MC claimed that the contractors did not carry out waterproofing properly in areas such as the basement car park, causing damage and safety risks.

"Residents said the same problem was occurring on the rooftops, which meant that higher-floor residents had problems of water seepage and water-stained ceilings and walls."

The Seaview was marketed as the Ardmore of the east and was a very pricey project. It still is. A 1,647 square feet four bedroom unit is asking for $2.5m today. With quality issues aplenty, I wonder if buyers would give it a wide berth. If we take a look at Property Guru's website, we see many trying to sell their units in The Seaview.


So, is buying condominiums developed by a reputable company always a good idea? Is buying new always better than buying old because the perception is that the property's condition would be relatively newer and that less repairs are required?

The article on The Seaview is quite detailed and I have only reproduced a small section of it. To read the whole article, click here.

I have very few blog posts on real estate investment, I realise, and I hope you have enjoyed this one, especially if you are thinking of taking that next step to invest in a condominium in the next few years.
 
Related posts:
1. Real estate as a hedge against inflation.
2. Money continues to flow into Singapore.

Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Stock markets around the world had a very bad week. Everyone it seems is expecting a global recession and the accompanying deflation.

In a truly deflationary environment, all assets will suffer and see their prices fall. Equities and precious metals were all sold down across the board, therefore.

However, reading an article in Bloomberg, it is interesting to note that in the USA, "railroads shipments are the highest in almost three years." This defies concerns of an impending double dip recession.


Art Hatfield, a transportation analyst in Memphis, Tennessee, at Morgan Keegan & Co: “We’re not seeing declines in rail volumes that are synonymous with a recession... We remain in a slow growth environment.”
Read article: here.

If we were to look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), we see it rising in recent weeks and I wrote a piece on whether it could be time to load up on shares of Courage Marine again not too long ago.


The suggestion is that there is an increase in demand for shipping capacity and because "dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, ... the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity." Source: Wikipedia.

So, is there going to be a double dip recession after all? There are analysts who believe that a recession is a given and some who believe that Europe will get its act together and a recession will be averted. With such conflicting signs, at this point in time, however, it is just a sea of opinions.

Personally, I do not believe in being overly bullish or overly bearish. I believe in being pragmatic. Putting all our chips on a single bet either way could be quite disastrous if we should be proven wrong.

What is being pragmatic? Knowing what the current conditions are, what kind of investments are likely to do better and act accordingly. It is about wealth preservation, if not growth.

Related posts:
1. Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.
2. Should we be staying invested or in cash?
3. Sleep well at night with a plan.
4. Why do I not panic?

What the very rich are doing with their wealth?

I read an article provided by Bloomberg News that Singapore will become the world's top wealth management centre by 2013, surpassing Switzerland and London.


It looks like our tiny island nation is attracting a lot of wealth from around the world and we are not just talking about HNW individuals. We are talking about super HNW individuals and families!

These families are setting up family offices to manage their millions instead of entrusting their wealth to private bankers. They view private bankers as salesmen instead of custodians of their wealth.

Clinton Ang, 38, prefers to manage his family's wealth of about $100 million himself.  About 90% of his family's investable assets are in cash after he sold from October to March its investments in stocks, bonds and most property assets.


Some family offices cater to more than one family to gain economies of scale. It is said that it costs at least $1.5m a year to run a family office that includes an investment team. So, a family will need a minimum of $100 million to justify the expenses.

Personally, I know some very rich people but they never talk about their wealth. So, it is not easy to get a peek into the way they manage their money. Usually, those boasting about their wealth are the newly rich and who might have just attained their HNW status.

There is wealth and there is WEALTH.

ARA: Initiated long position at $1.22.

Friday, September 23, 2011

I initiated a long position in ARA today at $1.22 a share. This decision is based on my TA last evening. Fundamentally, at $1.22, the estimated dividend yield is about 4% but investing in ARA is primarily for growth.


The counter's share price touched a low of $1.20 before closing at $1.205 on the back of very high volume. Such high volume sell down usually has some momentum to follow through. So, we could see ARA's share price head lower next week.

Based on the TA I did last evening, the next supports are at $1.17 and $1.08.  However, seeing how strong the selling was today, there is a good chance that $1.17 will fold if it should be tested.

I am not putting in any overnight buy order, prefering to wait and see how things will unfold next week, given the strength of the selling.

What about the potential positive divergence? It is looking extremely dicey as the MACD took a nosedive today.

Although a fundamentally sound company, its share price could weaken further from here. It might be a good idea to wait for the dust to settle before adding to my newly created long position.

Related post:
ARA: Breaking support. Going lower?

ARA: Breaking support. Going lower?

Thursday, September 22, 2011

I have been looking at ARA. The downtrend is persistent and I have yet to initiate a long position here.

Today, ARA's share price broke its previous low of $1.29, gapping down and touching an intra day low of $1.26 before closing at $1.27.


The DIs are negatively placed but the ADX shows that the downtrend is not a strong one. In fact, volume seems to be reducing as price weakens.

If this continues to be the case, the MACD could indeed form a higher low as price forms a lower low. A positive divergence in the works? Perhaps.

If we would like to do a bit of pre-empting, what price would we buy at?


$1.22 is a price that market participants would remember as that was the low of 21 Oct 2010 and the counter went much higher from there in the following months.

Next would be $1.17 which seems like a significant resistance which was tested many times before being overcome convincingly. It should therefore be an important support if tested. If that goes, we could see $1.08 next.

If we believe in trendlines and channels, we will see that ARA's share price seems to be nearing the support of its down channel.


Of course, this support could be compromised like it was earlier in August. However, when it was compromised, it recovered relatively quickly. Could it happen again?

Tea with AK71: Eldershield.

I am quite aware that I am ageing and, once in a while, I am reminded of the fact by other people.

Today, the government reminds me of this same fact by sending me a notice saying that I would be automatically insured under Eldershield come 31 December 2011.

Eldershield? Me? Wow, elder. This is cheerful.

So, being Singaporean, I want to know "how much"?

Annual premium: $174.96, payable till age 65.
Total premium from age 40 to age 65: $4,548.96

Second question, "what are the benefits"?

Benefits: $400 a month payout (maximum lifetime limit of 72 months).
Maximum claimable: S$ 28,800.00
Lifetime coverage.

OK, next question is harder. Do I need this? I mean is this really necessary? Opinions, anyone?

CapitaMalls Asia: Directions, please.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

On 15 August, I mentioned that pre-empting a trend reversal did not work out and I ceased buying more shares of CapitaMalls Asia. Then, I used the rebound later in the month to reduce exposure.

On the daily chart, it is interesting to note that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing once more. This reduction in volatility when interpreted together with a rising 20dMA that is on the verge of forming a golden cross with the 50dMA suggests that price is more likely to rise than fall.


In the event that price should go higher, we could see it testing the declining 100dMA and even the downtrend resistance again. These are currently at $1.44 and $1.57 respectively. Gap resistance at $1.40 and $1.55 would have to be overcome first in these two instances.

What if price were to weaken instead? I would wait to see if the low of $1.13 holds up as support, failing which I would want to see if a higher low forms on the MACD. Looking out for a positive divergence? You guessed it.

$120k annual passive income from S-REITs next?

Sunday, September 18, 2011

With the end of 2011 more or less in sight, I decided to take a look at how my aim to generate at least $50K in annual passive income from the stock market has fared this year. Of course, compared to the end of 2010, many things have changed. Don't they say that the only constant in life is change?

Saizen REIT was my largest investment up till early this year. The massive earthquake that struck Japan on 11 March 2011 left huge areas of the country devastated, areas which are economically important. I reduced my investment in Saizen REIT even though its buildings were largely unaffected with only a handful requiring repair work.

It was a decision premised upon possibly more difficult times that would hit the country and from a technical standpoint, further upside in its unit price could be capped. So, reading the charts back then, I waited for a rebound in the REIT's unit price and partially divested my investment in the REIT at gap resistance.

Next, I tweaked my portfolio with funds freed from the partial divestment of Saizen REIT. I further increased my investment in First REIT and initiated long positions in Sabana REIT and Cache Logistics Trust after doing the necessary due diligence.

Not long after, I reduced my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, shifting the funds from that partial divestment to Sabana REIT, in the process balancing the two REITs' weight in my portfolio.

In 2011, thus far, I have received income from the following S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Saizen REIT
3. First REIT
4. LMIR
5. Cache Logistics Trust
6. Sabana REIT
7. Suntec REIT
8. Cambridge Industrial Trust
9. FCOT

Total: $75,785.49.

Therefore, I have exceeded my personal target of $50k in annual passive income generated from investments in the stock market this year and this is from S-REITs alone.



At the end of this year, I will calculate the amount of passive income which S-REITs alone would have generated for me in 2011. It is quite likely that it could surprise on the high side.

Taking the cue from the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, I might have to set a higher target for myself in 2012. What about $120k next? Why not?


12 of this every year? Wah!

I will end this blog post by again saying: "If AK71 can do it, so can you."

Joi Kin! (ala "Yan can cook, so can you!")

Related posts:

First REIT: Could retest 84c high.

Saturday, September 17, 2011


Just like Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT saw its unit price moving higher on the back of higher volume in the last session.

Unlike my position in Cache Logistics Trust, however, my long position in First REIT is much larger and I stand ready to sell into strength if the opportunity presents itself.


It seems to me that First REIT's unit price broke out of an ascending triangle pattern. If this pattern is a valid one, we could see the high achieved in late July earlier this year tested. This is at 84c. Before that, I expect gap filling at 81c which could offer some resistance.

In an earlier blog post, I also said the fair value of the REIT is at 80c. So, if you have guessed that I have put in sell orders at 81c and 84c, you are right.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

Cache Logistics Trust: Further divestment at $1.

Friday, September 16, 2011

On 29 August, I mentioned that the mini double bottom, if valid, could see price go higher with a target of $1. On that same day, I partially divested my investment in the REIT as gap was filled at 96c.

On 8 September, I divested further at 98c which I thought was a rather stubborn resistance. The stochastics also showed the REIT to be very much overbought.

However, as is my usual style, recognising that TA is all about probability and never certainty, I did not divest fully. Today, my overnight sell order at $1 for Cache Logistics Trust was filled late in the afternoon.

With today's further divestment, my investment in Cache Logistics Trust is reduced to a rather small position, similar in size to my remaining investment in Suntec REIT. I would probably not do a full divestment unless Mr. Market should go crazy and give me a much higher price from here.


Technically, closing at $1.01 on the back of relatively high volume is good news for long holders and we could see the historic high of $1.02 tested next.

With Stochastics still high in the overbought region, we could see the REIT's unit price pulling back to supports. Of course, in extremely bullish circumstances, overbought conditions could persist for quite a while.

Related posts:
Cache Logistics Trust: Gap closed at 96c.
Cache Logistics Trust: Partial divestment at 98c.

Year end vacation: Great deals!

If you are still planning to go on that year end vacation and missed NATAS, never fear! There are still great deals around!

As I am also planning year end vacations, I came across a few good deals but you have to book soon as prices tend to increase towards end of the year.


Phuket (3D/2N), second half of November 2011.
Package price for 2 persons: S$584.00
(includes all taxes and fees.)
Airline: JetStar.
Hotel: Burasari Patong (4 star boutique hotel).

Bangkok (3D/2N), second half of November 2011.
Package price for 2 persons: S$647.12
(includes all taxes and fees.)
Airline: JetStar.
Hotel: Baiyoke Sky Hotel (4 star 88 storey high hotel).

Click on the banner to see more good deals!

Book online conveniently.

No service charge for credit card payment. Bon voyage!

Sabana REIT: 3A Joo Koon Circle and 2 Toh Tuck Link.



Sabana REIT is acquiring two more properties.

1. 2 Toh Tuck Link
Price: $39.8 m
Remaining lease: 45 years

2. 3A Joo Koon Circle
Price: $40.2 m
Remaining lease: 36 years

The purchases will be financed by debt.
With these acquisitions, gearing will be raised 33.7%.


Technically, trading of Sabana REIT's units is seeing decreasing volume as price hits a stubborn resistance at 89c. Although the MACD is rising, it is still in negative territory. A retest of support would be nice before a stronger push to break resistance.

If 89c resistance could be taken out convincingly, I expect the next major resistance to be at 92c, which was formerly an important support. Before that, there is 90c to contend with. 90c is also where we find the declining 50dMA.

I could buy more if the support at 88c should be tested in the near term.

See announcements here:
3A Joo Koon Circle
2 Toh Tuck Link

Phillip Securities: BUY. Target: $1.12.


Fright Night!

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Thinking of going to the movies? Wondering what to watch?



Charley Brewster (Anton Yelchin) is a high school senior who’s on top of the world — that is until Jerry (Colin Farrell) moves in next door and Charlie discovers that he is a vampire preying on the neighbourhood.

Click and find out more about Fright Night!

No change to my plan as I plan changes to my life.

Recently, I have not been blogging very much about the stock market or anything to do with investments, I am sure regular readers have noticed. There are various reasons for this but the primary reason is because I have put in place a plan for whichever direction the stock market may go.

If the stock market should trade sideways, I will keep the status quo and simply collect income from my investments. There is no need to trade constantly.

However, recent and future changes in my life are likely to result in less free time in future. I am and will be spending more time with my family, on self-improvement and, perhaps, even travelling.

Although I am not really affected by the current state of the stock market, going by the emails I have received, I know many people are. It is no surprise that many are wondering what to do. Should they hold? Should they sell? Should they buy more?

I always tell people that if they do not feel comfortable investing in something, don't. There is no point in being invested in the hope of making money and getting sleepless nights worrying about how the investment might turn out.

Of course, for the more open-minded and those with more questioning minds, asking questions to understand why the discomfort exists is the way to go. From there, go one step further, ask questions and see if the reasons for any aversion are actually valid. This would point us in the right direction.

Now, regular readers would know that I am heavily invested in certain S-REITs. I continue to believe that the very low interest rate environment which is likely to persist till 2013 is going to be good for REITs.

In an environment where economic growth is more likely to be revised downwards than upwards, REITs' more predictable and consistent income streams are also a big plus. REITs can continue to do well even with a reduction in economic growth or even with zero growth. In prolonged recessions, REITs are also quite resilient even if some tenants go broke because of the many months of rental deposits they collect from tenants.

So, being relatively heavy in S-REITs which provide between 8 to 10% per annum in distribution yield while I sit out the volatility in the stock market provides me with a peace of mind and some meaningful regular income at the same time.

Recently, there were people who mentioned that we have to be concerned with the fact that most industrial properties in Singapore are between 30 to 60 years leasehold in nature. Therefore, the high distribution yields are not perpetual. Of course, they are not perpetual but this does not mean that they do not make good investments in the meantime.

I learned through experience that freehold properties do not necessarily mean that they will do better in terms of valuations or rental income. It only means that they are yours in perpetuity. I can say for a fact that certain leasehold properties have done much better than freehold properties in the last few years. How much a piece of real estate is worth depends on demand. It is quite simple.

With demand for industrial properties, especially high tech industrial types, likely to remain resilient in Singapore, investing in industrial properties S-REITs with stronger numbers cannot go far wrong. In this respect, Sabana REIT has my vote.

What about AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT? Well, even its most vehement detractors (mostly from its MI-REIT days) must admit that the REIT has done much better since George Wang et al came into the picture. Like I said in an earlier blog post, some short term pain is likely with the redevelopment of 20 Gul Way but the longer term benefits make it worthwhile.

Finally, to dispel the misconception that I am a diehard optimist of REITs, I will say again that it is unlikely that conditions will always remain this benign for REITs. I am, therefore, unlikely to remain heavily invested in REITs forever. There will, most probably, come a time to divest but the time is not now.

Of course, my believes remain just believes. They form partially the basis for the plan I have in place now. Although I feel that my plan will serve me well, there is no way to be sure until the storm is over. Do your own due diligence and if you feel that my plan suits your purpose, go for it.

With my finances almost on auto-pilot, I will try to spend more time on other aspects of my life from now.

Related post:
Staying positive on S-REITs.

Tom Ford Nicole Sunglasses - Only US$129.99

Wednesday, September 14, 2011



I am not a fashionable person and I had no idea what was Tom Ford until a friend told me it is a luxury brand a few months ago.

This friend of mine also bought a pair of Tom Ford glasses. My glasses almost fell off my face when I heard the price!

If we must buy luxury brand goods, at least we should get them at good prices. Well, that's how I see it anyway.

From now through the 19th, you can buy Tom Ford Nicole Sunglasses for only US$129.99 for a savings of US$260.01 (67%).

This is an amazing product deal. So, I am promoting it while it lasts.


Tea with AK71: McDonald's shows us how!

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

We often come across signs at eateries which say "No studying." Although these signs do the job, they are not very friendly and they do nothing positive for the public image of the establishment as well.

We know the reason for these signs but couldn't they be worded nicely?

A good example of how it should be done!
Thumbs up for McDonald's!

Singapore Airlines: Slow to board the social media flight?

Monday, September 12, 2011

I might be slow here but I only read in The Business Times recently that SIA took over an unofficial facebook page. Apparently, the SIA facebook page was originally set up by fans and had almost 100,000 members.


Until almost two years ago, I didn't really know what was social media. OK, I heard of blogs, which I thought was a classy bog, and Twitter, which I thought was a noisy chatroom, and Facebook, which I thought was a vanity item. Yes, that's me, an IT dinosaur.

After I got the hang of blogging, it took me quite a while to get on Twitter and, more recently, Facebook. While blogging serves a purpose for me, being a platform for me to pen my thoughts and analyses, I could not see any advantages of being on Twitter and Facebook. I only started accounts because of requests by some readers.

Since starting a Twitter account many months ago, a grand total of 33 people are following my blogs using it. My Facebook account is less than a month old, so, having 3 members is a start. However, I think the most popular way in which readers follow my blog is still through Feedburner. Almost 600 people are following my blogs via feeds!

I know people who have terminated their Twitter accounts because they were not very successful. I also know people who claim that Facebook is more effective than Twitter in spreading the word. I kind of suspect that these are just different tools for different purposes and, most probably, Feedburner is the best tool for my blog to keep readers updated.

So, the view that SIA is very late in latching onto social media and how it has been detrimental to its business is something I do not quite understand. For those who do understand, please be kind to me. Laugh a little if you must but enlighten me with your insights please. :)

Tea with AK71: Good food at good prices!

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Recently, I had some good food at good prices:

Breakfast at Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. 1 for 1. I paid $7.70 for two sets of the above plus two cups of tea. A great deal!

This was a treat because I always see a long queue at the Western Cuisine stall at Kopitiam, Bukit Panjang Plaza. I hate to wait too long for my food but there was no queue that day! $6.10 after discount! Not bad.

Buuuuuuurp! I was a happy man! :D

Carpark Not Enough!

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Although there are cries of discontent in some quarters and this is amply evident in the last General Election as well as the Presidential Election, it seems that more HDB dwellers are doing better in recent years.

How do we know this? Wait for Jack Neo to make a movie "HDB Parking Lots Not Enough!", maybe.

I read an article in The Straits Times on my iPad today that the "pace of growth of car ownership has overtaken that of HDB's carpark-building programme.

"The number of HDB carpark spaces has risen from 539,800 in 2005 to 557,000 as at June this year - a 3.2 per cent rise.


"But the number of HDB households - the bulk of Singapore households - with a car has grown by 26.3 per cent to 310,400 over the same period. And the number with more than one car has shot up by 76.5 per cent to 45,900."

It seems that we could use the scarcity of HDB carpark spaces as an indicator of economic prosperity in Singapore. Given the cost of car ownership in Singapore, the growth of car ownership amongst HDB households probably shows that many are better off in recent times.

For me, I am glad that I do not have a problem finding a parking lot in the HDB estate where I stay now. Well, not yet, perhaps.

My weaknesses.

Friday, September 9, 2011

When it comes to junk food, I have two big weaknesses: ice cream and chocolates.

The atas and delectable stuff from Haagen Dazs:


This costs several times more than a strawberry sundae from McDonald's but it was so good!

Burp.

Cache Logistics Trust: Partial divestment at 98c.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

On 29 August, I blogged about partially divesting my investment in Cache Logistics Trust as the gap was filled at 96c. Today, my overnight sell order at 98c was filled.

After the gap at 97.5c was filled on 1 September, the REIT's unit price seems to be having difficulty clearing 98c, which is a natural candlestick resistance as well.


As the REIT's unit price does not seem to exhibit any form of trend, I look at the Stochastics to catch a glimpse of what is likely to happen next. Stochastics is in the overbought region and this suggests that chances of a pull back is higher than not.

Breaking out of 98c convincingly could see $1 tested next while further downside could see a retest of 91.5c for support. A simple risk and reward consideration suggests that another partial divestment at the current price level is a good idea.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: Gap closed at 96c.

CapitaMalls Asia: At resistance.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

While chatting in LP's infamous cbox today, a cboxer, OT, said that he is queueing to sell some shares of CapitaMalls Asia at $1.395 because I said that is where gap filling could happen. That was based on TA which I did more than a week ago.

TA is dynamic. What is valid now might not be valid a week later. So, is this case any different?


Share price touched a high of $1.36 which is where we find resistance provided by a flat 50dMA. It closed at $1.345 which is where we find the declining trendline resistance.

The MACD is rising nicely but it is still in negative territory. Volume although slightly higher is not impressive. This rebound could sputter and fail quite easily.

If both the 50dMA and the trendline resistance could be taken out in the next session, we could indeed see the gap filled at $1.395. If the share price could close above the 50dMA in the next session, we could even see $1.44 tested next. Will it happen?

TA simply hints of what could happen and we must have plans for all possible eventualities.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Rebounding.


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