Voices, noises and choices.

The amount of information out there is enough to make one feel somewhat overwhelmed or even faint. I have not been reading blogs as much in the last one week and kept my reading primarily to Channel NewsAsia, The Business Times and Yahoo!Finance. Even so, it probably is enough to make heads spin.

Some proclaimed that the U.S. housing market has bottomed and is picking up! Conventional wisdom says that the U.S. housing market must pick up before we see a return to sustainable economic growth. On the same day, another article claimed that the U.S. economy is sliding back into recession!

Then, the stock markets around the world rallied because European banks can now be recapitalised directly from bailout funds. There are those who then said this is only a relief rally and it won't last. Their advice? Don't believe the rally! Sell the rally!

S&P500                       +2.49%

DAX                              +4.33%

What about the Singapore stock market? Some say that it is being re-rated upwards because stocks here are up 9.8% in H1. Some say that it is because of window dressing in the first half that has pushed the STI upwards. Huh? Which came first? The chicken or the egg?

Hey, don't believe me, go get a copy of the weekend edition of The Business Times today. (Er, in case some are wondering, no, this is not a paid advertorial by The Business Times although you could be helping me a tiny bit as I am a shareholder of SPH.)

OK, if you have not fallen off your chair or reached for a bottle of medicated oil by now, good.

So, what are we to do? Do we join the bullish camp or the bearish camp? Regular readers would have guessed my answer. I would say neither. Stay practical. Stay invested but have a war chest ready.

Staying 100% or mostly in cash is not a good idea. It is unproductive as higher than average inflation chips away the value of our cash on hand. In fact, The Business Times has an article today which says that although the Singapore labour market is tight and although people might receive increments to their salaries, they are seeing little gain due to high inflation. Like what we learned in economics, there is nominal wage increase but not much real wage increase.

Actually, businesses are finding rising costs a struggle to deal with. Restaurants have reduced the size of portions being served and have, in some cases, increased prices.

At Ichiban Boshi, my family like to order soft shell crabs because we find that $5.50 for 2 soft shell crabs (cut into halfs) is not too bad. However, when we ordered it again a month or so ago, we only found 3 halfs on the plate. We thought perhaps 1 half fell on the kitchen floor or something. Anyway, when we ordered it again on a more recent visit, there were still 3 halfs only.  Inflation had spirited away half a soft shell crab although price stayed at $5.50 a portion. Sheesh!

There are many costs of doing business and rent is a big one here. Rental rates in Singapore have been going up and up. Thus far, the only sector that has seen a decline in rent is in prime office space due to more than ample supply. There were signs very early on which is why I have been underweighting this sector in my porfolio of S-REITs. However, we can expect this sector to recover rapidly if the global economy picks up again. Just bear in mind that office tenants are a rather footloose bunch.

SPH's Clementi Mall.

Generally, however, it is a very good time to be landlords. For the vast majority of us who are not financially able to participate by owning shops and buildings directly, investing in selected S-REITs and SPH is the next best thing. In fact, some might say it is even better as we do not have to worry about the day to day operations of the properties. Well, there are pros and cons, to be sure.

There are many voices out there and we have many choices. However, we have to always remember not to be intimidated by all the information being stuffed in our faces. What is worse than having no information? It is to be drowning in too much information.

Know what matters. Everything else is just noise, is it not?

Related posts:
1. Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs (4)
2. Staying postive on S-REITs.
3. Bearish or Bullish?
4. SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

Market gyrations, my portfolio and a sabbatical.

My investments in S-REITs are holding up nicely which gives credence to my strategy to overweight S-REITs in my portfolio. Their relative price stability and high distribution yields provide some solace in a volatile market.

A brief look at some of my larger investments in S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT closed at $1.20 per unit. My cost per unit ranges from $0.775 to $1.10.

2. Sabana REIT closed at $0.97 a unit. I first initiated a long position at $0.93 in March 2011. I bought more as its unit price sank below $0.90. I am still holding on to those units I bought at $0.865.

3. First REIT closed at $0.90 a unit. This is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.42 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.50 a unit. I bought more nil-paid rights for a total cost of $0.66 a unit. I also bought more units at $0.70+c.

4. LMIR closed at $0.39 a unit. Like First REIT, this is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.185 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.31 a unit. I also bought more nil-paid rights for total cost of $0.331 to $0.365 a unit.

5. Saizen REIT closed at $0.143 a unit. The history I have had with this REIT is somewhat bumpy. I increased my long position once again with a large purchase as its warrants reached their last day of trading not too long ago. Average price of that purchase $0.129.

I have collected many quarters of income distributions from these investments and my war chest is constantly being refilled. So, I constantly have funds to take advantage of any investment opportunities which might come along.

My strategy is to stay partially invested as we must also have cash to continue investing especially if Mr. Market decides to sell good quality stocks and trusts at bargain basement prices.

Recent efforts to invest in some companies instead of S-REITs have produced below average results. In fact, my poorly timed investments in China Minzhong and Wilmar, although relatively small, are a drag on my portfolio's performance. If I had stuck to my strategy of concentrating on S-REITs in recent times, my porfolio would have fared much better.

Of course, there would be people who disagree. Readers who comb the cyberspace for information would have, no doubt, come across some local blogs which vilify REITs. Well, everyone is entitled to his own opinions.

I have gotten somewhat tired of defending my position. Actually, why do I even need to defend my strategy? If people like it, they are welcome to follow. If they don't like it, don't follow. This is a free world. Just don't be rude.

I was never a savvy person with IT stuff and when I discovered blogging, I was like a child who discovered the sweetness of sugar. I got a sugar high. I have always enjoyed writing. So, I took to blogging like a fish to water. Also, as I age, I have developed an increasingly serious speech impediment. To a rather talkative person, this is an annoyance and makes blogging even more of an outlet of expression.

Making money from blogging was never a first thing on my mind. It came about later on when friends suggested that I could put some ads in my blog. I must say that I have been able to make some pocket money this way. Pocket money? Hey, Nuffnang pays me 20c for every click I get for ads they place on my blog. If my primary motivation for starting this blog is to make money, I must be seriously mental.

If I were to stop blogging tomorrow, what would I lose in monetary rewards?

Well, I have been thinking of taking a break from blogging and I have shared this thought here in my blog as well. There are other aspects of my life I would like to spend more time on. There are also people I would and should spend more time with. It is also quite obvious to regular readers that I have been blogging less frequently too.

We often hear of the saying that "this is the last straw that broke the camel's back". Well, I think I got another catalyst to stop blogging at least for a while earlier this evening.

To my regular readers, you know which blog posts I have here in my blog which would keep you squarely on your goal of financial freedom. Each time you waver, come back to my blog and go down the right sidebar. I would also be doing the same, no doubt. It is not easy to start but start we must. The journey is hard but go on we must. When we see the results of our effort, it would get easier and easier. Remember, if AK71 has done it, you can too.

To new readers, understand that we are all different. Not everyone can be a Warren Buffet or Donald Trump or Robert Kiyosaki. They have all taken their own paths to success. You should find your own. Reading my blog, if you feel that my way is something you would like to emulate, give it a go but know that everyone's circumstances are different. Set for yourself realistic goals. Take baby steps but you have to work towards building up passive income to a level that is equal to or exceeds your earned income. Then, you would have achieved financial freedom and you work because you want to and not because you have to.

In everything we do, there is an element of luck. Even Warren Buffet was wrong before. No one is God and even with Him, there is debate on things He might have done wrong. OK, this is a sign that I should stop. Yes, Father, I have sinned.

----------------
The following was a blog post written on 28 November 2011 after talking to "ao" in LP's infamous cbox (Bully the Bear). It was never published... till now:

A reader asked me recently if I ever get tired of replying to comments in my blog, especially with skeptics aplenty when it comes to my investments in REITs. I told him that I am only human and I do feel tired sometimes.


Recently, I had lunch with the blogmaster of Time to Huat and another long time friend. They asked the same thing, almost. One of them said that some comments were almost repetitive and marvelled at my patience in replying to every comment even so.


To me, I feel that if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well. How do we measure worth? In the world of blogging, at least to me, it is not measured in dollars and cents. I would be better off giving private tuition with my time, using such a measure.


When I started blogging, I took on certain responsibilities whether I knew it at that point in time or not. I am airing my thoughts in cyberspace. I am sharing ideas. Of course, there will be questions and also disagreements. What is a blogger to do? Face these squarely.


Being a blogger is like being a semi public figure. Semi public? Yes, we can choose to blog without revealing our true identity. I have gotten a taste of what it is like to be a semi public figure and I doubt I would ever want to be a public figure. So, although I have met a handful of readers and fellow bloggers so far, I have decided quite some time back to be more reclusive. I value my privacy too much to ever become a public figure.


Recently, I have been thinking again whether I should stop blogging altogether. My blog posts are usually crafted with care  So, it takes up a lot of time and I only have so much time...

Win a Samsung Galaxy S3!

GALAXY SIII is a phone that’s designed for you!

Now, stand to win a GALAXY SIII when you participate in this contest:
Samsung GALAXY SIII and Your Song!

Free Vaseline Perfect 10 Sample!

WHAT’s YOUR SKIN SCORE?

How well do you know your skin? Would you rate it 10/10?

As we grow older, our skin’s ability to renew itself slows down. Over time, dark spots, fine lines and wrinkles subtly start appearing without our notice.

How well would your skin score upon 10?

Find out your Skin Score and get a free Vaseline Perfect 10 sample: here at Vaseline.

Wilmar: Not a time to sell.

On 5 June 12, I did a blog post on whether it was time to go long on Wilmar. Yesterday, someone asked me as well if it is now a good time to go long on Wilmar.

To any seasoned market watcher, Wilmar's share price must look quite tantalising as it hit a low of $3.41 on 14 June 12. That was a good 43% lower than its one year high of $5.99 a share.

Now, if we should think of a reason for the decline in price, it is clearly because of the company's disappointing earnings. The company's crushing business is likely to remain very difficult for some time to come. In fact, the CEO said it could take a few years for excess capacity in China to be absorbed. As this business is about 25% of the company's revenue, a decline in its share price is to be expected but the decline has been disproportional. I have no doubt that short sellers made quite a bit of money here as well.

Wilmar's share price has seemingly found a floor and has rebounded somewhat. I see immediate resistance at $3.70 or so. If it should break resistance, we would probably see short sellers covering their positions which would send share price higher to test the next resistance.

If the company's share price should test a new low, everything remaining constant, we should see stronger buying interest returning. Technically, the momentum oscillators are rising and, so, support this thesis. Look out for a higher low in the momentum oscillators then. That would be a clear signal to go long as the share price is set up for a reversal.

Is it time to buy Wilmar's shares? I feel, at least, it is not a time to sell.

Related post:
Wilmar and China Minzhong: Time to go long?

SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

SPH is still my largest investment in a Singapore blue chip and it is an important part of my high yield portfolio. CIMB now suggests that investing in SPH is better than investing in retail S-REITs. It would be a happy coincidence for me if CIMB should be right as my only exposure to retail S-REITs is a small long position in Suntec REIT, much smaller than my investment in SPH.

Singapore Press Holdings is becoming increasingly like a retail real estate investment trust (REIT), CIMB Research said, noting its growing retail property arm and stable media business, as well as typical payouts of more than 90%...


The broker also said SPH is a cheaper alternative for investors seeking exposure to retail Singapore REITS after the stock’s underperformance, offering yields of 6.4% versus an average of 6.1% for retail Singapore REITs...


CIMB said revenue compound annual growth rate for SPH’s “gem asset”, Paragon shopping mall in Singapore, stood at 8.3% over 2006-2011, outstripping growth for comparable assets under retail Singapore REITs.


Related post:
SPH: Interim dividend of 7c per share.

CIMB says SPH a “pseudo retail REIT”. It upgraded its rating on SPH to outperform from neutral and raised its price target to $4.19 from $4.13.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Singapore property prices to stay resilient?

If the latest report by Maybank is correct, then, the expected 20 to 30% decline in Singapore property prices over the next couple of years might not transpire. The expectation is now for a mere 10% decline in property prices over the next 18 months. This suggests that any dip in prices could see showflats packed with buyers again.

Related post:
Affordability of housing in Singapore.

Singapore residential sector to see soft landing. Shares in CapitalMalls Asia have jumped nearly 32% this year, while CapitaLand rose 22% and Keppel Land is up nearly 39%.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore