On New Year's Eve, crude palm oil (CPO) closed up RM68 or 2.62% at RM2,663, a 7 month high. A retest of the high achieved this year at RM2,790 in May is on the cards.
CPO price is more likely to rise than fall in 2010 because of:
1. Demand from the world's top two consumers of vegetable oils: China and India. This demand is expected to increase as economies improve.
2. Bad weather in the Americas leading to lower soybean yields. This leads to lower soyoil production and higher prices. CPO is a substitute which is also less expensive.
3. Crude oil's price movement which is expected to continue rising as a cold winter increases demand for heating fuel in the short term and economies improve through 2010. CPO is an important source of biofuel and would most likely ride the wave up.
Why Golden Agriculture?
PRIVACY POLICY
Featured blog.
1M50 CPF millionaire in 2021!
Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
Archives
Pageviews since Dec'09
Recent Comments
ASSI's Guest bloggers
- boon sun (1)
- Elsie (1)
- Elvin H. Liang (1)
- ENZA (3)
- EY (7)
- FunShine (5)
- Invest Apprentice (2)
- Jean (1)
- JK (2)
- Kai Xiang (1)
- Kenji FX (2)
- Klein (2)
- LS (2)
- Matt (3)
- Matthew Seah (18)
- Mike (6)
- Ms. Y (2)
- Raymond Ng (1)
- Ryan (1)
- Serejouir (1)
- skipper (1)
- Solace (13)
- Song StoneCold (2)
- STE (9)
- TheMinimalist (4)
- Vic (1)
Resources & Blogs.
- 5WAVES
- AlpacaInvestments
- Bf Gf Money Blog
- Bully the Bear
- Cheaponana
- Clueless Punter
- Consumer Alerts
- Dividend simpleton
- Financial Freedom
- Forever Financial Freedom
- GH Chua Investments
- Help your own money.
- Ideas on investing in SG.
- Invest Properly Leh
- Investment Moats
- Investopedia
- JK Fund
- MoneySense (MAS)
- Next Insight
- Oddball teen's mind.
- Propwise.sg - Property
- Scg8866t Stockinvesting
- SG Man of Leisure
- SG Young Investment
- Sillyinvestor.
- SimplyJesMe
- Singapore Exchange
- Singapore IPOs
- STE's Investing Journey
- STI - Stocks Info
- T.U.B. Investing
- The Sleepy Devil
- The Tale of Azrael
- TheFinance
- Turtle Investor
- UOB Gold & Silver
- Wealth Buch
- Wealth Journey
- What's behind the numbers?
Crude Palm Oil: Update
Friday, January 1, 2010Posted by AK71 at 10:28 AM 0 comments
Labels:
China,
CPO,
crude oil,
crude palm oil,
India,
soybean,
soyoil
A new year and a new decade. Strategy for 2010.
Firstly, Happy New Year! It's the beginning of a new year and a new decade. Many countries in the world still have huge debts to deal with but let's hope things will be better the next 10 years.
This is extracted from the latest issue of NEWSWEEK magazine:
The American goverment may owe China US$799 billion but when it comes to foreign debt per capita, the US is relatively prudent. Which nationality has the highest foreign debt per capita?
Greeks US$ 27,746
Belgians US$ 27,023
Austrians US$ 26,502
Irish US$ 24,247
Norwegians US$ 21,402
Italians US$ 21,089
Dutch US$ 20,412
French US$ 18,946
Germans US$ 15,574
Finns US$ 13,617
Americans US$ 11,094
Danes US$ 9,410
Spaniards US$ 8,715
Swedes US$ 7,058
Brits US$ 6,526
Now, this puts things in perspective. Many countries are still not out of the woods. This gives the idea that we will see the global economy going into a tailspin again in the next 2 or 3 years greater credence. We are experiencing a cyclical bull in a secular bear market and not the beginnings of a secular bull market.
My strategy for 2010?
1. Gold
I am keeping an eye on the price of gold. If it goes closer to the psychologically important support level of US$1,000 an ounce, I will buy more physical gold as a long term hedge against inflation. Gold also acts as an insurance for my other investments. I buy physical gold from UOB.
2. Crude oil
I believe that demand for crude oil will continue to strengthen through 2010. However, it will not go up in a straight line. It will climb a wall of worries and we will have plenty of worries in 2010, no doubt. I would trade counters which are leveraged to the price of crude palm oil (CPO) as a proxy to the price movement of crude oil. I like Golden Agriculture.
3. Japan
As a contrarian play, Japan might outperform after almost two decades being in the doldrums. I like the Japanese Yen. I like Japanese real estate. I like Saizen REIT.
4. Indonesia
A strong emerging market, Indonesia did not suffer negative growth in 2009. I like LMIR and First REIT for the low gearings and the high yields.
5. Healthcare
There is greater demand for quality healthcare with increasing affluence and an ageing population in Singapore. I choose Healthway Medical.
6. Tourism
2010 will be a year where tourist arrivals balloon in Singapore with the completion of the two integrated resorts (IRs). Looking for value and high yield, I like Suntec REIT and SPH.
There are many other counters which will do well in 2010 but I will concentrate on these I've highlighted. The choices here are based on FA. Remember to use TA to identify entry and exit prices. Good luck in 2010.
Posted by AK71 at 12:06 AM 22 comments
Labels:
bear,
bull,
CPO,
crude oil,
crude palm oil,
FA,
First REIT,
gold,
Golden Agriculture,
Healthway Medical,
Indonesia,
japan,
LMIR,
Saizen REIT,
SPH,
Suntec REIT,
TA,
US$
Monthly Popular Blog Posts
-
I have been thinking about really retiring in a couple of years. Confused? Didn't AK retire 8 years ago a few months before he turned 45...
-
I have been asked this question in various forms by various people over the years. "How much cash are you holding now?" However, l...
-
I shared a photo of one my favorite ships in World of Warships in a video yesterday. Bismark is a ship I enjoy a lot and I have had many ho...
-
I used to blog about my meals in the early days of blogging. Haven't been doing it for many years. Anyway, I love fish fingers. Specific...
-
Someone asked me recently would I consider investing in Alibaba or Tesla now that their stock prices are much lower. Of course, for long tim...
All time ASSI most popular!
-
A reader pointed me to a thread in HWZ Forum which discussed about my CPF savings being more than $800K. He wanted to clarify certain que...
-
The plan was to blog about this together with my quarterly passive income report (4Q 2018) but I decided to take some time off from Neverwin...
-
Reader says... AK sifu.. Wah next year MA up to 57200... Excited siah.. Can top up again to get tax relief. Can I ask u if the i...
-
It has been a pretty long break since my last blog. I have also been spending a lot less time engaging readers both in my blog and on Face...
-
I thought of not blogging about my 2Q 2020 passive income till a couple of weeks later because Mod 19 of Neverwinter, Avernus, just went liv...