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FSL Trust: Golden cross?

Saturday, July 24, 2010

FSL Trust formed a white candle in the last session with a respectable expansion in volume. The 20dMA continues rising and seems on track to form a golden cross with the 50dMA in the near future. Although we do not see a buy signal on the MACD histogram, the MACD is, nonetheless, rising in positive territory. The MFI has been rising which suggests a rising demand.  The OBV is rising again which suggests continual accumulation.




If price were to stay at 42c in the next session or, in fact, go higher, the resistance provided by the 50dMA would be taken out.  The next target is then 43.5c if price does a gap fill which it probably would.  Beyond that, a retest of the high of early June at 46c is next.

Related post:
FSL Trust: The skies are clearing up.

China Hongxing: Breakout.

The last time I wrote about China Hongxing was on 3 July. At that time, there were still mixed signals.




On Thursday, two sessions ago, there was a buy signal on the MACD histogram and the MFI broke out of its downtrend. Volume expanded 10 times in the last session as price hit a high of 14.5c.  With this, China Hongxing broke out of multiple resistance levels and confirmed the buy signal on the MACD histogram. 11.5c has been established as the bottom while the next resistance is at 16c, as provided by the 200dMA. With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested.  Congratulations to those who took the risk to buy some earlier on but bear in mind that it is still trading below the 200dMA and that the longer term trend is still down.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Bottoming?

Tea with AK71: Money well spent.

Friday, July 23, 2010

My recent purchase of a Samsung HD1080p 32" LED TV, a Sony Blu Ray player and a Pioneer sound system surprised quite a few friends and even my family members.  Considering that my last TV was a Chimei 26" LCD HD Ready TV bought three years ago at $688 in Carrefour, you can imagine why. Have I become extravagant?  I hardly think so.

Three years ago, it would have easily cost two times of $688 to get a 26" LCD HD Ready TV from Sharp or Sony.  I decided I did not need something branded then and settled for Chimei which served me quite well in the last three years.  Some friends commented that it was too small for my living room and some said the definition was poor.  Most just went "What is a Chimei?" and some even made puns out of the name.  Terrible. However, I thought it was OK.  I mean I had no problem with news, documentaries and DVDs on my Chimei.  Then, why change?

I saw what the LED TV was capable of delivering during one of my visits to the malls and  I also found the Samsung aesthetically pleasing compared to the Chimei.  You don't find these arguments convincing, do you?  If you are a regular reader of my blog or if you know me very well, yes, you would not be convinced.  The most important reason was that the price was not even two times of $688!  Great technology at a great price!  It is never a question of affordability.  It is always a question of value of money. I decided to pamper myself which is something I rarely do.

So far, everyone who has seen my new TV only had good things to say about it.  I am only human and it feels good to have positive reinforcement from others.  Things are so different from those Chimei days.  This is a positive spinoff that I did not anticipate.

To some people, it seems that I have changed. Well, maybe a little.  I don't think I have changed much.  I am still the pragmatic me but I have to agree that I have become less tight fisted in the last one year. 

I told a friend who visited recently that watching Blu Ray programs is such a joy.  Images and sounds are crystal clear on the new TV. Sometimes, I would just switch it on, watch for about ten minutes, switch it off and go to sleep, feeling happy. Money spent on anything which contributes to a general sense of well-being and happiness has to be money well spent, don't you think?


As an aside, my sister is going to shave her head bald to help some cancer stricken children and I donated some money to the cause in a show of support.  It's a worthy cause, after all.  To find out more, please visit: Hair for Hope 2010. This is definitely money well spent.

Related post:
Money management: Needs and wants.

CapitaMalls Asia: Uptrend broken.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The longer term downtrend which was broken briefly for four sessions in late June is once again in play.  A series of rallies which started after the price hit a low of $1.91 on 7 May has come to an end.

On 16 July, charting revealed that "Prices are testing the support provided by the third fan line.  The uptrend has weakened from the initial fan line and it now looks exhausted. OBV shows clear distribution since price peaked on 23 Jun. From Monday to Thursday, volume expanded as price dropped.  Today, volume is lower and this is probably in response to the slightly oversold condition as suggested by the MFI.  Immediate support at $2.04 and immediate resistance at $2.10.  Closing below $2.04 in the next session would break the uptrend support and the price is likely to move lower from there."




Today, the support provided by the third fan line was compromised with price opening at $2.04 and closing at $2.02.  Volume expanded in the last two sessions as the price fell. MACD continues to fall in negative territory and OBV continues its decline, suggesting greater distribution than accumulation. However, MFI has risen out of the oversold territory. This suggests that there is still some demand and forms a positive divergence with price. This might limit somewhat the decline in price.

Could this decline below the third fan line possibly be a whipsaw to shake out the weaker long holders? It might be. Or could we see the previous low of $1.91 tested again?  If price continues to decline, Fibo lines suggests that this is quite possible. This counter is still looking for a bottom, it would seem.

Charts in brief: 20 Jul 10.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Volume expanded strongly today as price closed at a high of 22.5c. This move breaks it out of a 0.5c trading range which started in early June. The MFI has broken out of its downtrend, suggesting a return of demand.  Sell signal on the MACD histogram negated as the MACD continues to rise in positive territory above the signal line. The OBV has moved to a new high, suggesting more accumulation than distribution has been going on in recent times. Whether price could break out of the bigger trading range of 20c to 23c remains to be seen. When all the sellers are done selling and buyers want a piece of the action, the only direction would be up.  The fundamentals are strong and the technicals are seemingly benign.  Let's see if the momentum keeps up.




FSL Trust: Price went above the resistance provided by the 50dMA briefly. Closing at 42c is still at resistance provided by the same MA. MACD has just crossed into positive territory. MFI continues to rise. These suggest a return of positive momentum and demand. However, the OBV is flat which suggests a stalemate between accumulation and distribution. Demand is rising but accumulation is not keeping pace which means that there is some selling pressure.  Without an expansion in volume with an upmove in price, the sellers are unlikely to be taken out. With the RSI high in overbought territory, suggesting that price has moved upwards too quickly, the possibility of a slow down or pullback cannot be ruled out. Immediate support remains at 40c while breaking out of 42c resistance could see price do a gap fill at 43.5c and, perhaps, test the lower high of 46c too.




Golden Agriculture: Touched 58.5c, the resistance identified last Friday. Volume shrank for two sessions in a row as price rose. So, price is rising from a lack of sellers, not an abundance of buyers. MFI and OBV continue rising, suggesting rising demand and accumulation.  So, we could perhaps see price moving higher.  If 58.5c is taken out, the next resistance is at 60c.  The MFI nears overbought territory and one wonders if there is much more left to this rally.  This is a valid concern when we see that the RSI is already in overbought territory.  Any pullback would see immediate support at 55c, as provided by the 100dMA.


K-REIT: Uptrend intact.

Monday, July 19, 2010

K-REIT's uptrend is intact with a 1c fall in price from the previous session to $1.21. That price closed at the high of the day is encouraging. MFI continues to trend up which suggests sustained demand.  However, it is nearing overbought and we might see the rise in price slowing or, perhaps, we might see a slight pullback to the 20dMA which approximates the uptrend support. In case of a pullback, support is at $1.15.




What makes $1.22 different from $1.22 in January?  When $1.22 was hit in January, the MAs were farther apart from each other compared to what is observed now. Now, the MAs are closer to each other, more tightly knit, if you like. Such an arrangement is likely to limit volatility and provides a firmer platform for any further upmove in price.  All the MAs are rising and the 50dMA seems poised for a golden cross with the 100dMA.

Volume has been stronger on up days compared to down days and if this persists, price could break $1.22 sooner than later.

K‐REIT Asia will distribute to Unitholders 2.97 cents per unit on Aug 26.

Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 3).

Sunday, July 18, 2010

LMIR: Although falling to 48.5c today means that price has fallen below the downtrend resistance drawn from the high of 11 Jan, price has been falling on lowering volume in the last few sessions.  This is comforting as it means a lack of distribution. This is confirmed by the OBV. 48.5c is resistance turned support for now.




NOL: $2 is an important resistance turned support formed by the merged 20d and 100d MAs. If this were to break, price could fall to $1.94 next. What looks like a symmetrical triangle has formed. Breaking to the downside would find initial support at $1.84, the 23.6% Fibo line which coincides with the 200dMA. Breaking to the upside gives an initial target of $2.22.




Raffles Education: Since hitting a high of 34c on 12 July, there has clearly been distribution activity as suggested by the declining OBV. Price is now supported by the 20dMA at 29.5c. The decline in price in the last few sessions has been accompanied by declining volume and this low volume pullback could be a chance for some brave punters. The MFI is still uptrending and if it were to bounce off its support, price could move higher once more.




SPH: OBV rising strongly, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI bordering on overbought. MACD rising strongly in positive territory. All these as price closed at $4.08, the target I identified not too long ago. Volume is lower which suggests that price moved higher because there were lesser sellers.  People are probably waiting to see how high it can go.



Related posts:
SPH: BUY calls aplenty.
LMIR: Recovering for real?
Raffles Education: A spectacular white candle.
NOL: Downtrend.


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