Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.
“The market is overbought and there is a renewed sense of complacency in the marketplace that I think could get shattered pretty quickly,” says the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto.
Posted Jul 28, 2010 11:18am EDT by Peter Gorenstein,Tech Ticker.
"In a country like North Korea, with conventional artillery lined up to literally obliterate Seoul within hours and with direct nuclear capacity and ballistic missile capacity, this is an unprecedented threat from a rogue state," Bremmer says. "Clearly there is a drumbeat in North Korea that they are trying to use to build patriotism and support for their own regime. The question is: how far do they have to go?"
Bremmer goes on to say that the markets have largely ignored South Korea's precarious situation. They should pay attention because Kim Jong-il wields enormous power and no one knows what he is capable of, including his presumed benefactors in China.
"So if this continues to escalate, and so far all indications are that it will, it is going to start creating an awful lot of concern on the ground with some economies that really matter to the world," he says.
Most counters in my watchlist are positive today as the STI gained to close just a whisker off 2,880. It would seem that the Chinese government has done the world a great favour by deciding to let the RMB strengthen. This is something I have believed should happen for some time. A stronger RMB would ameliorate the problem of inflation within China, raise the purchasing power of its people and improve standards of living. Increased domestic consumption would do a lot of good for China's own economy as well as the global economy. You might want to read what I wrote in an earlier post here.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Volume expanded today and all trades were done at only one price, 22c. MACD has turned up. MACD histogram has a buy signal. MFI has turned up, forming a higher low. OBV has turned up, suggesting increased accumulation.
CapitaMalls Asia: Price broke the resistance band of $2.19 to $2.21 which I identified earlier. Closing at $2.22 seems bullish but volume suggests that this might not be durable. This counter is probably rising due to a lack of sellers rather than an abundance of buyers. Nonetheless, the momentum is still good as suggested by the MFI and price might be pushed higher.
Courage Marine: The picture is somewhat similar to CapitaMalls Asia. A white candle day on improved volume but not impressively so which suggests a lack of sellers rather than an abundance of buyers. MFI shows improving momentum while the OBV has turned up slightly. It remains to be seen if resistance at 20c could be taken out. A significant resistance after 20c is at 21c.
FSL Trust: MFI and OBV continue to rise. Could 40c be taken out this week? The next resistance level which is likely to be a strong one as suggested by candlesticks and a declining 20dMA is at 42c.
Golden Agriculture: Price continues to be resisted at 55c although it touched a high of 55.5c today. Momentum is still positive and MACD is about to cross into positive territory. Volume is, however, unimpressive which probably resulted in the failure to take out 55c and instead formed a white spinning top which is a possible reversal signal. Support is at 51.5c in case of a trend reversal.
LMIR: It seems that the merged 100d and 200d MAs are too strong to be taken out today. Price closed at 47.5c which is where we find the 50dMA, forming an inverted cross in the process. The negative divergence between price and volume continues to suggest LMIR has been rising on weak technicals. If the 50dMA does not hold up as support, the next support is at 46c as provided by the 20dMA.
I remember reading as an undergrad that artificial countries will never work out. Good examples are the former Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. We can never integrate people and their spaces together with other people and their spaces if they are different culturally. We need very strong leaders to hold such constructs together.
In recent times, we saw problems in China with Tibet and Indonesia with Timor. Now, the problem which is more glaring is the EU. The EU is different in that it is made up of different countries. These countries have given up their own currencies to embrace a common currency. This, effectively, surrenders some of the individual countries' control over their economic destinies. This is probably a reason why Baroness Margaret Thatcher, then Prime Minister, refused to have the UK join the EU.
In The Straits Times on 29 April, I read with concern as an article reported that there is little danger to Asia because of our little trade exposure to the EU. It said thatthe EU consumes 19.8% of China's exports, 12.4% of Korea's, 11.9% of Japan's, 11.9% of Thailand's, 10.3% of Taiwan's and just 4.9% of Singapore's. These numbers are based on a 12 month average ending March.
What should be considered, in my opinion, is the missing multiplier effect. If China loses 19.8% of her export market in any substantial way, we can imagine them importing less from other countries and this will impact other countries' trade figures in total. Same goes for Japan, Korea and also Singapore. The fallout will have earth moving consequences for us in Asia.
Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to the EU's problems, it would seem.
Blame Germany, Galbraith Says: "Extreme Brinkmanship" Imperils Europe
Posted Apr 30, 2010 03:43pm EDT by Aaron Task
In sum, the Greek bailout may alleviate the immediate crisis but is far from a "permanent solution," the economist says. European officials will be "fighting fires continuously until they address the constitutional problem" of the EU.
Revaluing the RMB is a matter of when, not if. It is widely known that the RMB is undervalued and the Chinese government realises that it has to let the RMB appreciate. This would bring down the cost of living in the country and help put a lid on inflationary pressures. However, China wants to do so at its own pace.
The Chinese government is and has always been very concerned about not losing face. A confrontational attitude from outsiders would do more harm than good.
When the RMB is revalued upwards and we can expect this to happen in a series of steps in time, foreign companies with assets in China and with earnings denominated in the RMB will surely benefit. Also, foreigners should find investing in Chinese companies and assets attractive in such a situation as the value of their Chinese investments in their home currencies would likely increase.
China is on track to overtake Japan as the largest economy in Asia and companies which are well positioned to benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy will most likely do better than peers which are not.
Yuan Gains May Help China Vault Past Japan to Be No. 2 Economy April 19, 2010, 1:36 AM EDT
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s anticipated move to let its currency appreciate may help the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said. A 5 percent revaluation against the dollar could see quarterly gross domestic product exceed Japan’s as soon as July- to-September this year, estimated Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZ. The Chinese economy is likely to vault past Japan by year’s end even if the yuan remains stable, Liu said in an e-mailed interview.
------------------------------------------------------- Weak Chinese Currency "Not Just An American Problem," FT's Martin Wolf Says.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
A reader, Jason, has provided, in my opinion, a wealth of information on dry bulk carriers and what we should be concerned about in the next few years. I would like to highlight Jason's comments here in a proper post:
"...there are monthly publications that cover dry bulk extensively. You can try shipping.capitallink.com - links to lots of shipping information, ship indexes and its weekly newsletter has got plenty of information also on dry bulk shipping.......
"Just so i give you an idea of what dry bulk shipping is all about category of ships:
"VLOCs (very large ore carriers) - primarily used to carry iron ore, Vale will become the owner of the largest VLOC fleet in the world.
"Purpose is to get economies of scales to move iron ore from Brazil to China, compete against BHP/Rio who are much nearer vis-a-vis Australia.
"Capesizes: Moving mostly the hard dry bulk cargoes viz iron ore + coal (usually 120,000 dwt to 220,000 dwt range)
"Panamax: moves coal/iron ore/grains (70,000 dwt to 120,000 dwt)
"Handysizes/Handymax/Supramax: moves everything under the sun - offers the greatest flexibility due to their size, can stop at any port of call to unload (5,000dwt to 69,000dwt)
"To gauge charter rates, you have to look at their respective indexes : BCI (baltic capesize index), BPI (panamax index), BHI (handy index)......charter rates for panamaxes have overtaken capesizes! This was driven by the grains markets - 5 biggest producers being USA, South America (Argentina/brazil), Russia, Europe, Australia.
"Right now, fleets are looking to Asia for business - China (iron ore + coal), India (coal), Japan (iron ore, coal), Korea (coal, iron ore) why? Cos Asia houses some of the biggest steel producers in the world! China - Baosteel/Shagang/many more. India - Arcelor Mittal. Japan - Nippon Steel. Korea - POSCO
"Right now,USA gets its iron ore from backyard (domestic + Canada). Europe still imports from Australia/Brazil but not much cos their economy is still in the toilet for now.
"Coal is very much part of the steel production (used in the blast furnaces) and power plants, of which India especially is lacking in the latter while China needs the former! Why the boom in China? Biggest car mkt in the world (13.6m cars in 2009), property boom, infrastructure spending from new stimulus package in 2010.
"So ships will be everywhere but mostly with an eye for Asia. China is gobbling up every known commodity on earth - copper/aluminium/zinc etc, wheat, cotton....rates keep going cos charterers pay more to get ships out from the far east to Europe/baltic/atlantic.
"So long as Courage Marine can focus its biz on China/Asia/India exclusively, the upside is there. And we all know doing biz in China is all about guan xi......:) Keep that guan xi and you are OK.
"As for the progressive new ships coming on board, the ship owners will suffer the most whilst the charterers will be laughing to the bank - i can pick and choose my shipper!"
In my reply, I suggested that the demand for dry bulk carriers is likely to remain strong in Asia but as Jason pertinently pointed out, the world of dry bulk carriers would be focusing on Asia to pick up the excess capacity and with new ships joining the fray in the coming years, a lid might be put on earnings with increased competition.
Based on my analysis of Courage Marine's numbers, with their strict cost management and very low gearing, I believe that they will be able to do relatively well. If revenue reduces and costs stay low, we can weather storms. If revenue reduces and costs are high, we are most likely on a sinking ship.
Courage Marine is also very focused in offering their services in the Greater China region where growth is the strongest in the world. Since 2001, Courage Marine has built a good name for itself in this region. It is small but nimble. As long as Asia continues to do well, Courage Marine would be a key beneficiary.
A China Bubble? People Have Been Saying That Forever
Posted Apr 08, 2010 09:46am EDT by Henry Blodget
CapitaMalls Asia's volume expanded on a down day as the 50dMA was breached. It closed at $2.26, forming an inverted black hammer in the process, which happens to be another possible reversal signal.
OBV has declined but the overall trend of accumulation is still intact. MFI shows reduced buying momentum while the MACD has dipped below zero, signalling the end of positive momentum. Having said this, the picture of a low volume pullback has not changed.
Drawing Fibo lines to determine where the supports are in case the price does continue to decline shows the next support levels at $2.25 and $2.23. The low in February was established at $2.19 and should be a strong support if tested. The downside is still pretty limited, therefore.
Investors have to determine the implications which news might have on the economy, specific sectors and companies within the sectors. In so doing, investors will be able to position themselves to take advantage of any developments.
So, for example, a year or so ago, when we read about how most cities in China do not have clean drinking water and how the Chinese government intends to spend more on infrastructure, the implication was that companies in the water sector with exposure in China should benefit.
For examples in Singapore, we could consider the near completion of the integrated resorts (IRs) and a growing population. The IRs are expected to attract many more tourists to Singapore in 2010. The hospitality and retail sectors are prime to benefit from this.
With a growing population in line with the government's aim to achieve a long term target population of 6.5m residents in Singapore, we expect real estate developers, healthcare services providers and transportation companies to benefit.
These connections are not difficult to make. Investors just have to keep themselves informed of the latest news. A nightly scan of the latest business news online has become a routine for me. Identifying trends and value: FA and TA.
On New Year's Eve, crude palm oil (CPO) closed up RM68 or 2.62% at RM2,663, a 7 month high. A retest of the high achieved this year at RM2,790 in May is on the cards.
CPO price is more likely to rise than fall in 2010 because of:
1. Demand from the world's top two consumers of vegetable oils: China and India. This demand is expected to increase as economies improve.
2. Bad weather in the Americas leading to lower soybean yields. This leads to lower soyoil production and higher prices. CPO is a substitute which is also less expensive.
3. Crude oil's price movement which is expected to continue rising as a cold winter increases demand for heating fuel in the short term and economies improve through 2010. CPO is an important source of biofuel and would most likely ride the wave up. Why Golden Agriculture?
Singapore's domestic market is tiny. Instead of opening hospitals in Singapore and waiting for patients to visit us in Singapore, go to the patients instead in countries where high quality medical services are lacking! I like the Chinese RMB. Earning Chinese RMB is a great strategy.
Video Clip added on 11 Feb 2010:
Business Times, December 14, 2009 Monday Healthway plans to invest another $20m in China;
It is targeting a dozen first and second-tier cities there. Ven Sreenivasan
AFTER expanding rapidly into one of Singapore's largest clinic chains, Catalist-listed Healthway Medical Corporation has set its sights on equally rapid expansion into the huge China market.
Less than a year after investing in its first venture in Shanghai via Crane Medical through a $3.3 million convertible loan, the company is preparing to spend another $20 million to expand its footprint in a dozen first and second-tier cities across the country.
'We will initially set up medical centres in Suzhou, Nantong and Nanjing,' said managing director Wong Weng Hong. The next phase will be expansion to other gateway cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Tianjin, Dalian, Shenyang and Qingdao by 2015.
In Singapore, the group's business has been growing rapidly. The number of its clinics and doctors will double to 120 and 400, respectively, by by 2013. This includes the establishment of a complex diseases diagnostic centre in the city. Dr Wong, however, is particularly bullish on his company's growth prospects in China.
'This is a huge US $118 billion a year market which continues to grow at almost 20 per cent a year,' he said. 'The country is now undergoing a US $800 billion healthcare reform. It has a population of over 1.3 billion, of whom only 400 million have medical insurance. The numbers speak for themselves.'
The group currently operates on a management contract via Shanghai-based Nobel Hospital, an eye/ENT/dental practice. But going forward, according to Dr Wong, this will be expanded into general medicine, specialist and diagnostic services.
But would the plans pit Healthway against more entrenched players like Singapore's Parkway group and American health services group United Family?
'Right now the foreign players largely target the expatriate population,' Dr Wong said. 'Our aim is to provide accessible and affordable medical services for the local population. There is rapid shift in the demographics of the country, both in terms of geography and financial status.'
Dr Wong envisions a country-wide roll-out of a rapidly scaleable model of diagnostic clinics, specialist clinics and general practices which will have a presence in rural, suburban and urban areas, focusing on the growing demand for better quality and more reliable medical services.
'We will focus on specific specialist and sub-specialist services,' he said. 'This will include multi-specialty medical centres for locals and foreigners, dental clinics, eye and ENT, hospitals and GP clinics.'
The company, which has a gearing of 30 per cent, intends to use internal resources (it has cash of some $28 million) and credit lines to fund the China expansion. It recently announced a 67 per cent rise in profits to $12 million for the nine months to end-September.
Healthway is not planning to grow via acquisitions, at least in the initial phase of its China roll-out.
'At the initial stage, we will go in for management contracts,' Dr Wong said. 'This will enable us to be asset light and not burden our balance sheet.'
This is a model it follows at its Nobel Hospital in Shanghai, run by Crane.
Still, given that the China expansion will also have to dovetail with the planned roll-out of more clinics and a major medical diagnostic centre in Singapore, Dr Wong does not rule out raising funds from the market.
But one thing is certain, China will feature prominently on Healthway's books by 2015.
The USA was not always the global economic leader. It took its current place more or less after the world wars. Before the USA, the UK was the leader. The Sterling Pound was worth a lot more than what it's worth today. I remember my parents and my grandparents keeping the Sterling Pound. The exchange rate was S$7 to a Sterling Pound, if I remember their accounts correctly. So, global economic leadership shifted from the UK to the USA.
Now, Jim Rogers has said this many times and I agree with him: economic leadership is shifting once more and the next 100 years will see Asia taking over the reigns of global economic leadership and he expects China to take the lead.
That's why I've also shared my views with friends that my favourite currencies, apart from gold, are the RMB and the Indonesian Rupiah. I've a bit of all three and intend to accumulate more gold. The RMB and the Rupiah are fiat currencies like the US$ but they have not been abused and are not as flawed.
The Chinese economy is large and dynamic. However, it has to undergo a huge behavioral and structural transformation for the Chinese to consume more and to rely less on exports. Why do I say this? Let's look at Indonesia. It has a population of 240 million, a far cry from China's 1.6 billion, and private consumption is 60% of its GDP. In China, private consumption is only 36% of its GDP.
Many might or might not know this but "China's consumption-to-GDP ratio has dropped by nearly 15 percentage points since 1990 and continues to deteriorate in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The sources of China's low consumption rate are both behavioral and structural." This was in a recent report by McKinsey.
Asia might be the future economic powerhouse of the world and China might become the leader but the journey has only begun.
Posts
Bloggy Award