S-REITs: Are we asking the right questions? (UPDATED)

A friend asked me if S-REITs are bad investments now? Why are people selling down S-REITs? 

He is somewhat concerned about his investments in S-REITs and was hoping that I will tell him what to do, I guess.

Well, I cannot and will not tell him what to do. He has to decide for himself. 

Before he can decide for himself, he has to understand his motivations for being invested in S-REITs in the first instance.





If his motivation was for income, then, ask if S-REITs still do a good job of providing regular income. 

If his motivation was for capital gain, then, he should have set a target and perhaps sold his investments when prices declined by 10% from the top, for example.

People get confused when they don't know what they want.

For me, my remaining investment in S-REITs is for income. 

Apart from Saizen REIT which could see income distribution in S$ affected by the much weaker JPY, I do not see income being affected negatively in the other S-REITs I am vested in. 

Well, at least not in the next few quarters.







So, why are people selling down S-REITs? 

There are many explanations and there has been much said about how sensitive S-REITs are to interest rates. 

An increase in interest rates will be bad for S-REITs in more ways than one. 

This is all true. 

However, we have to question also if an increase in interest rate is imminent and also if S-REITs will be immediately affected. 

Personally, I do not think so.





Of course, Mr. Market does not care what I think. This is a good thing. 

As Mr. Market goes into a manic depression, he is going to offer S-REITs at lower and lower prices. 

This means distribution yields will go higher and higher, everything else remaining equal.

Could we see S-REITs trading below NAVs once again? I have no idea but it could happen. 





If it should happen, we would have a chance to buy productive real estate at a discount once again. Guess what would I do then?

As S-REITs' unit prices climbed higher, I warned that we should be careful and not be too optimistic. 

Now, as S-REITs' unit prices decline, I will remind everyone not to be too pessimistic.

Always ask the right questions and we will know what to do.






Related posts:
1. Wealth creation in the stock market.
2. Never lose money in S-REITs?
3. Be cautious when climbing the S-REIT tree.

Be cautious while climbing the S-REIT tree.

In the last few years, I have stayed positive on S-REITs and reaped the benefits. In a blog post just a few months ago, I said that I was no longer as positive about S-REITs but I had not turned negative on them either. 

Instead, I was quite simply cautious about S-REITs as investments for income. See: Never lose money in real estate or REITs?

To recapt, at that time, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was trading at $1.46 a unit and Sabana REIT was trading at $1.12 a unit. Fundamentally, if nothing has changed in the businesses of these REITs from then to now, if I was cautious then, I would still be cautious now. 

This is why I have not added to my long positions even as prices retreated from the highs of $1.88 for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and $1.385 for Sabana REIT.

I am still invested in the REITs because I would be hard pressed to find alternative investments that would give me the returns that they do. This reflects my thinking that in the shorter run, these REITs are still good investments for income.

However, there is no doubt in my mind that, just as the REITs enjoyed the good fortune of the real estate sector in recent years, they will also suffer the downturn that is sure to come. So, to add to my already sizeable investments in these REITs is not a good idea.

I revealed in my year end report for 2012 that I had started moving resources away from REITs into what I felt are undervalued stocks. I think regular readers know which few stocks I have been blogging about. 

Moving house is never fun and the transition I am making is also not fun because it means giving up on something that is more immediately satisfying (i.e. certain distribution income) for something that is less so (i.e. possible capital gains).

Nonetheless, this has been my plan for many months now and I am staying the course. While I do this, the dependable and regular income from S-REITs is a constant source of comfort. This income, however, cannot be relied upon indefinitely as the still benign conditions are showing signs of change.

Having said this, in the last few trading sessions, as the unit prices of S-REITs declined rapidly and in large magnitudes, short sellers had a ball of a time. Shorts will have to be covered and the decline in unit prices will come to a halt and rebounds are to be expected. 

So, it could provide trading opportunities for long only investors.

In all that we do, stay pragmatic and do not be overly optimistic or pessimistic. We want to continue loving something only if it is still worth the loving and keep in mind that money should go to where it is treated best.

With the spectre of rising interest rates as the U.S. housing market and economy recover, we should naturally be concerned about interest rates in Singapore because we know what higher interest rates will mean for REITs. 

So, even as we stay invested in S-REITs, think about how we should not throw caution to the winds.

S-REITs are no longer the low hanging fruits they once were and if we are not careful, we could end up with some pretty expensive buys and the recent price declines probably caught quite a few unwary investors. 

To expand on the analogy of low hanging fruits, we do not want to be stuck high up in a tree with no way of coming down.

Related posts:
1. Is this the start of a bear market? What to do?
2. 2012 full year passive income from S-REITs.
3. Do not love unless it is worth the loving.

Barclays tips accumulating S-REITs on dips
Friday, 31 May 2013

© 2013 - The Edge Singapore

Is this the start of a bear market? What to do?

There is really no accounting for Mr. Market's behaviour. Just this morning, share prices were still holding up nicely and in the afternoon, they were all much weaker. It reminds me of Singapore's weather in recent weeks, sunny in the mornings and raining heavily in the afternoons.

If we were to comb the internet for possible reasons for the decline in share prices, we would see analysts putting the blame on China's poorer manufacturing data in May and Ben Bernanke's remarks which have been interpreted as a possible earlier tightening of money supply. As far as I am concerned, Mr. Market was itching to take profit and these are excuses.

Ben Bernanke's statement was made public last night and when I read the papers this morning, what really struck me was his statement that the Fed's current monetary policy is providing significant benefits and that "a premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further." (The Business Times, 23 May 2013, page 18.)

How do you think we should interpret Ben Bernanke's statement?

There is not going to be any change in the Fed's monetary policy, not until unemployment falls meaningfully and inflation is where they want it to be. So, the environment of low interest rates will persist and this bodes well for the stock market.

Now, with the declines in the stock market today, is the bear back? Some people have been waiting for the bear to come back for a long time, staying on the sides with lots of cash. They hope that this is the start of a bear market. Well, is it? Naturally, no one knows.

What I know and would like to remind everyone about is that prices do not go up or down in a straight line. They climb a wall of worries and go down a river of hope. The uptrend is still pretty much intact and pull backs are only normal. Today is another pull back and the worries are China's weaker data and, apparently, Ben Bernanke's statement.

With lower prices, now, we see better value. Of course, this is assuming that there are no material changes which will adversely affect our investments. If the fundamentals are unchanged, a good investment at a lower price offers greater value for money. Then, look at the technicals. If these are benign, we should be buying on weakness.

In a nutshell, if the fundamentals remain good and if the technicals are benign, pull backs are buying opportunities.

For those who are still interested in investing in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT, their charts spot long black candles today. Their units are definitely more attractively priced now.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

SABANA REIT.

So, what should we do? Prepare a list of the stocks we are interested in. Determine what are the prices we would like to buy at as well as the reasons backing those decisions. Remember, if we cannot convince ourselves why we are buying at a certain price, we really don't have a good reason to be buying.

Have a plan and follow the plan.

Related posts:
1. Have a plan, your own plan.
2. Help! I missed the boat.
3. Risks and rewards: TA and FA.

Sabana REIT: An 8.14% yield even now!

Sabana REIT's unit price rose today as expected. It closed 3c higher per unit. Annualised, anyone who bought at $1.185 today would be looking at a distribution yield of 8.14%.

UOB KayHian has a BUY recommendation on the REIT and a target price of $1.30 which means a yield compression to 7.42%. Don't ask me how they determined the target price. I have no clue. However, their call could help push the unit price of the REIT higher if there are enough people who believe the recommendation.

What do I think?

Well, I wrote a piece not too long ago in response to a friend's question as to whether he should buy into Sabana REIT. Anyone who is thinking of buying into Sabana REIT or any other REIT for that matter might want to read that blog post: 5 steps to take in REIT investment.

What about my opinion on Sabana REIT in particular?

Well, although an 8.14% distribution yield is relatively high even when compared to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which currently yields some 6.4%, I would say that we should exercise caution as almost half of Sabana REIT's leases by gross revenue would be expiring this year.

Although I am optimistic that most, if not all, of the leases would most probably be renewed and with some positive rental reversions to boot, there is always a chance that things could go wrong. Mr. Market will be Mr. Market. Or am I wrong to say this?

For anyone who is attracted to the distribution yield and we can understand why this is so especially in the extremely low yield environment which we find ourselves, having a long position as a hedge even at the current price could be considered. However, bear in mind that we could see unit price retracing once the REIT goes XD in a few days from now.

You know yourself best (I hope). So, if seeing the unit price decline by a few percentage points would cause you anxiety, please think twice about buying now. Of course, there is no guarantee that a decline would take place but the probability is for this to happen than for price to go higher when the REIT goes XD.

For those who already have a long position in the REIT, buying when there is a retracement to support would seem like a more logical thing to do. Buying last month when unit price was at about $1.10 instead of now at $1.185 would give you an idea of what I mean.

Anyway, I will leave you with this technical picture and let's see if you can spot the signs which would suggest that caution on the part of bulls would be rather wise.

Have a good weekend.

Related posts:
1. Sabana REIT: 4Q 2012 DPU 2.41c.
2. 5 steps to take in REIT investment.

Sabana REIT: 4Q 2012 DPU 2.41c.

The management of Sabana REIT have once again exceeded their own forecast and they have announced a DPU of 2.41c for 4Q 2012.

The REIT goes XD on 23 Jan 13 and the income distribution is payable to unitholders on 28 Feb 2013.

Gearing: 37.6%

Interest cover ratio: 5.4x

NAV/unit: $1.07

All in financing cost: 4.3%

The numbers are all good except for the fact that 44.7% of leases by gross revenue are still expiring this year. There is no news on any progress made towards the renewal of these leases and that could explain Mr. Market's more cautious attitude towards this REIT.

Sabana REIT's distribution yield is currently the highest in the S-REIT universe. Annualised, we are looking at a distribution yield of some 8.38% based on the last closing price of $1.15 per unit.

Unless it is able to assure Mr. Market that all of the expiring leases in 2013 are being renewed and with positive rental reversions to boot, its unit price could find it harder to rise much higher.

In the meantime, however, we could see unit price moving higher as the REIT goes CD tomorrow.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 3Q 2012 DPU 2.34c.

Never lose money in real estate and REITs?

I have cautioned people that we are likely to see a decline in prices of residential properties in the next few years. Unless we are sure that we are looking at an undervalued property, we should think again about passing that cheque to the agent. After all, it is a big financial commitment.

The government continues to make more land available for new residential developments. Already, there is a rising vacancy rate in non-landed private residential properties. This would likely worsen as more developments are completed in the next two years. We could have the perfect cocktail for a deep correction in the market if interest rates should head north come 2015.

We retain our negative view on the Singapore residential sector as we continue to see a rising threat of vacancy with an acceleration in physical completions in 2013-15.

Vacancy rates for non-landed private units had increased from 5.9% to 6.1% qoq in 3Q12 as take-up continued to lag physical completions. URA estimates that completions will rise from 16.1k units in 2013 to 23.1k units in 2015, 2-3x more than the historical average occupancy rate of 8k units per year.

We forecast that physical residential prices will fall by 5% by end-FY13, with vacancy rates for private units up from 6.1% currently to 7.2%. (CIMB, 11 Dec 12)

With industrial properties, the government has also made more land available in order to keep the cost of doing business down in Singapore. With investors channelling their funds into commercial and industrial properties due to cooling measures imposed on residential properties, prices of commercial and industrial spaces have sky rocketed.

In all areas, how much of the demand is, therefore, user demand? How much of the demand is from property investors and speculators? The end result is the same. Prices are pushed up which leads to more building. We don't need a degree in Economics to know that oversupply will bring down prices. People who bought at high prices should have deep pockets to avoid foreclosure.

So, how will my investments in industrial S-REITs be affected? They will not escape unscathed, for sure. This is where the quality of the management will be called into question. Quality of management?

For example, Saizen REIT has been able to maintain occupancy of 90% or so for their properties in Japan despite the difficult conditions and much lower occupancy levels of competing properties. I believe in their management's quality.

So, if the management is up to scratch, we could see above average occupancy levels even as more supply comes on stream. However, in a situation where there are many alternative offerings, to retain tenants, rental rates would probably come under pressure.

Although we could continue to see some yield compression in 2013 as money seeks out higher returns in industrial S-REITs, I would be surprised to see unit prices rising by more than 10 or 15% next year. If people ask me if this is still a good time to invest in industrial S-REITs, I would say it is still good if we are investing for income but, perhaps, not so good if we are looking for capital appreciation.

My two largest investments in industrial S-REITs are:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT

Of the two, I am more impressed with the former's management quality. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's management have renewed many tenancies ahead of time while Sabana REIT which has almost 48% of its tenancies expiring next year is slow to show results.

So, do we press the panic button? I think not. Sabana REIT would probably be able to renew most, if not all, of its expiring tenancies as the full impact of the new supply coming on stream would not be felt in the very short term. Nonetheless, the impression I get of a management that seem to be dragging their feet nags at me.

I have stayed positive on S-REITs for quite a while now. It is now prudent to turn more cautious on S-REITs although it is too early to turn negative.

Supported by lower than average completion of new industrial space over the past few years, vacancy levels for all industrial segments (Business Parks, Multi-User Factories and Warehouses) have hit record lows. This had led to a strong surge in industrial capital values and rents by 6-26% since the start of 2012. Looking ahead, we see market dynamics turning given that close to 49.7msqft of industrial space currently under construction will be completed over 2013-2015. This, on an annualised basis, represents more than twice the annual supply over the past decade.
(DBS Group Research, 6 Dec 12)

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q 2013.
2. Sabana REIT: 3Q 2012 DPU 2.34c.
3. Staying positive on S-REITs.
4. AK71's simple strategy.
5. REITs: When to buy?

Sabana REIT: 3Q 2012 DPU 2.34c.

Sabana REIT reported a robust set of numbers, declaring a DPU of 2.34c. The counter will go XD on 24 Oct and income distribution is payable on 28 Nov.

Total assets under management: $1.1 bn

Occupancy rate: 99.9%

Average all-in financing cost: 4.3%

Weighted average tenor of debt: 3.5 years.

Interest cover ratio: 5.5x

NAV/unit: $1.03

Sabana REIT's higher income from a slew of acquisitions comes with financing cost increasing significantly as well. Gearing is now higher at 38.3%. However, this does not disturb me much as the net result is still positive for unit holders.

In my opinion, the weakness of Sabana REIT remains a high concentration of leases expiring in 2013.  At 47.4%, it has not changed from 3 months ago. My hope is for positive rental reversions which should lead to a higher DPU. I look forward to any growth in income without any significant increase in costs to the REIT.

At the closing price of $1.13 in the last session, the annualised distribution yield is 8.28%. In an environment of very low interest rates, this is still very attractive and a further compression of yield to 7.5% does not seem improbable. That would see unit price at about $1.25.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 2Q 2012 DPU 2.27c

Sabana REIT: Convertible Sukuk.

Some time back, I wrote about how perpetual bonds could be a good thing for REITs if they could use the funds raised to acquire yield accretive properties. Imagine borrowing at a lower interest rate to invest in a property with a NPI yield higher than the cost of debt. This is good news for existing unitholders.

Sabana REIT has announced a Convertible Sukuk which will raise S$80m. What is Sukuk? The easiest way to understand it is to think of it as an Islamic Bond. So, a Convertible Sukuk is a Convertible Bond.

The Sukuk will carry a profit rate of 4.5% and are due in September 2012. If the conversion to new units takes place, there will be 67,040,979 new units issued (about 10.5% of all units currently in issue).

Read announcement: here.

Sukuk holders could exercise the option to convert to new units after 9 November 2012. The initial conversion price is $1.1933 per unit. This is some 5.6% higher than the closing price of $1.13 in the last session.

If my understanding is correct, Sukuk differ from conventional bonds in that they do not take interest payment but, instead, they will take partial ownership of the business or assets. This is why the coupon of 4.5% is referred to as profit rate. Interesting.

Read announcement: here.

Property to be purchased:
23 Serangoon North Avenue 5.

Remaining land lease: 44.2 years

Purchase price: S$61.0m

Read about the property to be acquired: here.

I feel that the cost of debt at 4.5% per annum is somewhat pricey but Sabana REIT is a smallish outfit and the higher profit rate is to compensate for perceived higher risk, I suppose. It is similar to what Saizen REIT pays for some of its bank loans, for example. So, no big issue here.

I am not able to find information on the NPI which 23 Serangoon North Avenue 5 will generate for the REIT but I am assuming that it is yield accretive as announced by the manager. So, the NPI yield should be much higher than the cost of debt of 4.5% as the REIT's current portfolio has an average NPI yield of 7.3%. The purchase should be DPU accretive as well.

If the Convertible Sukuk are all converted to new units in the REIT, there will be a dilutive effect as they represent some 10.5% of the total units in issue now. However, the benefit is that they become equity in the REIT and not debt. This will, then, have a benign effect on gearing.

Do we stay invested and take the good with the bad or do we take our money elsewhere?

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 2Q 2012 DPU 2.27c.

Sabana REIT: 2Q 2012 DPU 2.27c.

When people asked me whether they should invest in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT or Sabana REIT recently, I asked them what are they after? If they are after a higher yield in the immediate future, Sabana REIT is the obvious choice.

Sabana REIT has declared a DPU of 2.27c, just 0.01c higher than in the last quarter. Annualised, this gives us 9.08c. Buying units of the REIT at $1.00 a piece would give us a distribution yield of 9.08%. Sabana REIT is probably the only one in the S-REIT universe now that is offering a distribution yield in excess of 9%.

Gearing: 34.1%

NAV/unit: $1.04

Interest cover ratio: 5.6x

Occupancy: 98.4% to 100%.
(Total occupancy rate: 99.9%)

Remaining land leases (average): 39.7 years.

The REIT's management should be working on leases expiring in 2013 soon, if they have not started already. Given that 47.4% (down from 49.4% in January 2012) of leases expire in 2013, this is a top priority, in my opinion. Hopefully, we would then see positive rental reversions which would, in turn, improve DPUs.

They have signed a new 10+5 year master lease for 1 Tuas Avenue 4 which would now expire on 31 March 2022. I would like to see more of such effort to reduce lease expiry concentration in 2013 and, to a certain extent, 2015.

In the meantime, the REIT could probably make another two or three acquisitions if it gears up to 40%. This would be the fastest way to improve DPU.

The REIT will go XD on 25 July and its income distribution is payable on 29 August.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.

Market gyrations, my portfolio and a sabbatical.

My investments in S-REITs are holding up nicely which gives credence to my strategy to overweight S-REITs in my portfolio. Their relative price stability and high distribution yields provide some solace in a volatile market.

A brief look at some of my larger investments in S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT closed at $1.20 per unit. My cost per unit ranges from $0.775 to $1.10.

2. Sabana REIT closed at $0.97 a unit. I first initiated a long position at $0.93 in March 2011. I bought more as its unit price sank below $0.90. I am still holding on to those units I bought at $0.865.

3. First REIT closed at $0.90 a unit. This is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.42 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.50 a unit. I bought more nil-paid rights for a total cost of $0.66 a unit. I also bought more units at $0.70+c.

4. LMIR closed at $0.39 a unit. Like First REIT, this is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.185 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.31 a unit. I also bought more nil-paid rights for total cost of $0.331 to $0.365 a unit.

5. Saizen REIT closed at $0.143 a unit. The history I have had with this REIT is somewhat bumpy. I increased my long position once again with a large purchase as its warrants reached their last day of trading not too long ago. Average price of that purchase $0.129.

I have collected many quarters of income distributions from these investments and my war chest is constantly being refilled. So, I constantly have funds to take advantage of any investment opportunities which might come along.

My strategy is to stay partially invested as we must also have cash to continue investing especially if Mr. Market decides to sell good quality stocks and trusts at bargain basement prices.

Recent efforts to invest in some companies instead of S-REITs have produced below average results. In fact, my poorly timed investments in China Minzhong and Wilmar, although relatively small, are a drag on my portfolio's performance. If I had stuck to my strategy of concentrating on S-REITs in recent times, my porfolio would have fared much better.

Of course, there would be people who disagree. Readers who comb the cyberspace for information would have, no doubt, come across some local blogs which vilify REITs. Well, everyone is entitled to his own opinions.

I have gotten somewhat tired of defending my position. Actually, why do I even need to defend my strategy? If people like it, they are welcome to follow. If they don't like it, don't follow. This is a free world. Just don't be rude.

I was never a savvy person with IT stuff and when I discovered blogging, I was like a child who discovered the sweetness of sugar. I got a sugar high. I have always enjoyed writing. So, I took to blogging like a fish to water. Also, as I age, I have developed an increasingly serious speech impediment. To a rather talkative person, this is an annoyance and makes blogging even more of an outlet of expression.

Making money from blogging was never a first thing on my mind. It came about later on when friends suggested that I could put some ads in my blog. I must say that I have been able to make some pocket money this way. Pocket money? Hey, Nuffnang pays me 20c for every click I get for ads they place on my blog. If my primary motivation for starting this blog is to make money, I must be seriously mental.

If I were to stop blogging tomorrow, what would I lose in monetary rewards?

Well, I have been thinking of taking a break from blogging and I have shared this thought here in my blog as well. There are other aspects of my life I would like to spend more time on. There are also people I would and should spend more time with. It is also quite obvious to regular readers that I have been blogging less frequently too.

We often hear of the saying that "this is the last straw that broke the camel's back". Well, I think I got another catalyst to stop blogging at least for a while earlier this evening.

To my regular readers, you know which blog posts I have here in my blog which would keep you squarely on your goal of financial freedom. Each time you waver, come back to my blog and go down the right sidebar. I would also be doing the same, no doubt. It is not easy to start but start we must. The journey is hard but go on we must. When we see the results of our effort, it would get easier and easier. Remember, if AK71 has done it, you can too.

To new readers, understand that we are all different. Not everyone can be a Warren Buffet or Donald Trump or Robert Kiyosaki. They have all taken their own paths to success. You should find your own. Reading my blog, if you feel that my way is something you would like to emulate, give it a go but know that everyone's circumstances are different. Set for yourself realistic goals. Take baby steps but you have to work towards building up passive income to a level that is equal to or exceeds your earned income. Then, you would have achieved financial freedom and you work because you want to and not because you have to.

In everything we do, there is an element of luck. Even Warren Buffet was wrong before. No one is God and even with Him, there is debate on things He might have done wrong. OK, this is a sign that I should stop. Yes, Father, I have sinned.

----------------
The following was a blog post written on 28 November 2011 after talking to "ao" in LP's infamous cbox (Bully the Bear). It was never published... till now:

A reader asked me recently if I ever get tired of replying to comments in my blog, especially with skeptics aplenty when it comes to my investments in REITs. I told him that I am only human and I do feel tired sometimes.


Recently, I had lunch with the blogmaster of Time to Huat and another long time friend. They asked the same thing, almost. One of them said that some comments were almost repetitive and marvelled at my patience in replying to every comment even so.


To me, I feel that if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well. How do we measure worth? In the world of blogging, at least to me, it is not measured in dollars and cents. I would be better off giving private tuition with my time, using such a measure.


When I started blogging, I took on certain responsibilities whether I knew it at that point in time or not. I am airing my thoughts in cyberspace. I am sharing ideas. Of course, there will be questions and also disagreements. What is a blogger to do? Face these squarely.


Being a blogger is like being a semi public figure. Semi public? Yes, we can choose to blog without revealing our true identity. I have gotten a taste of what it is like to be a semi public figure and I doubt I would ever want to be a public figure. So, although I have met a handful of readers and fellow bloggers so far, I have decided quite some time back to be more reclusive. I value my privacy too much to ever become a public figure.


Recently, I have been thinking again whether I should stop blogging altogether. My blog posts are usually crafted with care  So, it takes up a lot of time and I only have so much time...

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT: Performance fees.

This issue of The EDGE has a very interesting article by Goola Warden on S-REITs. In a nutshell, it looks at potential conflicts of interest between their external managers and unitholders. To this end, it looks at the layers of fees charged by the managers.

As investors, we want to make sure that the REIT managers are fairly rewarded since no one would work for free. However, we have to safeguard our interests too especially when there is a lack of uniformity in the way the fees are calculated.

On the issue of performance fee, CLSA says that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT are amongst S-REITs with the most equitable performance fee structures. The managers are only paid performance fees upon satisfying certain conditions.

The manager of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT gets paid 0.1% of the deposited property value if distribution per unit (DPU) growth exceeds 2.5% per annum. The manager gets paid 0.2% of the deposited property value if DPU growth exceeds 5% per annum.

The manager of Sabana REIT gets paid 0.5% of the net property income (NPI) if the REIT achieves DPU growth of 10% per annum for unitholders.

So, if unitholders get a meaningfully higher DPU, the managers are rewarded with a performance fee. I doubt if anyone would quarrel with this. It appeals to my sense of fair play.

Between the two REITs, however, I believe that Sabana REIT's performance fee structure is fairer. Rewarding the manager with a percentage of the NPI makes sense because a higher DPU is probably due to a higher NPI. 

So, having the REIT manager rewarded a percentage of the NPI makes more sense to me than rewarding them with a percentage of the deposited property value.

Nonetheless, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's conditional performance fee is still better than those of REITs like Suntec REIT which pays 4.5% of the REIT's NPI as performance fee to its manager regardless of performance. 

Er... Am I missing something here?

Seems like there is more reason to like Sabana REIT now apart from its very high distribution yield. ;)

Reference:
"Growth versus value.", Goola Warden, The EDGE, pages 22 to 24, 18 June 2012.

Related posts:
1. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2011.

Charts: China Minzhong, Wilmar, Yongnam, Sabana REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

I have a friend who told me that he wants to buy more of China Minzhong at 50c. Why 50c? He can't quite say. Anyway, at 50c, I would have lost almost half of my initial investment in the company...

What does the chart say? Momentum is definitely negative and the MACD is still in decline. What is encouraging is the reducing volume over the last three sessions although it remains elevated. Today, a white spinning top was formed. Could this be a reversal signal?

Well. the OBV is still in decline which suggests distribution is ongoing even as price weakened. The MFI though seems to be forming a higher low.

The MFI takes into consideration both volume and price and is often seen as a measurement of demand momentum. So, it is telling us that there is some demand coming back as the stock was savagely sold down. A rebound could be on the horizon and we could see gap closing at 68.5c in such an instance.

Wilmar's technicals have nothing encouraging for the bulls apart for the formation of a black hammer today.

This reversal signal would need confirmation in the next session but with the other technicals very bearish, it would be a nice surprise if a reversal does happen.

Yongnam has been sold down. It touched 22c today, a level not seen since August last year.

I have looked through Yongnam's numbers and they actually still look quite good. However, the lower highs on the MFI are obvious and buying momentum is absent. So, price could drift lower which could see it testing the low of 21.5c hit last August.

Although there has been some distribution going on as suggested by a mildly declining OBV, most shareholders are just holding on. Look at the volume. Look at where the OBV was last August and where is it now. Although price has reached the low levels of last August, OBV is at a much higher level.

To me, the price weakness of recent sessions is nothing alarming. It is not a result of rampant selling. It is just that without buyers share price could continue to drift lower.

I know quite a few people are looking to possibly adding more units of Sabana REIT to their portfolios.

MACD has crossed into negative territory. MFI, a measure of demand hit 50% and turned down. The OBV suggests that distribution is ongoing. The very high volume today formed a black hammer. The high volume suggests a heightened state of activity and the black hammer suggests that bears had the upperhand. Further weakness could see supports at 93c (100dMA) and possibly 90.5c (200dMA) tested.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's chart is similar to Sabana REIT's but uglier.

The MACD has plunged headlong into negative territory while the MFI went into oversold territory. Very bearish. The OBV suggests that strong distribution activity is ongoing. Indeed, look at the trading volume spiking today. Immediate support is at $1.08 and if that goes, we could see $1.035 tested.

Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.

The REIT's yield accretive purchases of five properties last year has helped to push DPU to 2.26c for 1Q 2012. Annualised, this would give us a DPU of 9.04c. Based on the REIT's last closing price of 97.5 per unit, we are still looking at a distribution yield of more than 9%. 9.27% to be more exact.

With a NAV/unit of $1.04, the REIT is still trading at a discount to NAV even though its unit price has risen significantly in the last few months.

Gearing: 33.9%.

Interest cover ratio: 5.5x.

Occupancy: 96% to 98.4%.

WALE: 2.6 years

Weighted average remaining land lease: 39.9 years.

The REIT will go XD on 25 April and income will be distributed on 29 May.

I would like to see the managers working to increase occupancy and negotiate lease renewals with positive rental reversions this year. If successfully executed, we could see DPU improving marginally in the next few quarters.

For anyone interested in investing in an industrial S-REIT for regular income, Sabana REIT would appear to be an attractive proposition even at current prices.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

See presentation slides: here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Credit rating.

Life has been somewhat stressful for me lately. Lots of things happening. That explains the paucity of blog posts.

I am trying to get up to speed with things and also trying to catch up on my reading of business periodicals which I have neglected lately.

In today's The Business Times, I read that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has received an investment grade credit rating of BBB- from Standard & Poor's. This is good news indeed. This rating is the same as the one received by Sabana REIT last year in August.

This means that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT would be able to access investment grade debt and capital markets from now on. It would also allow the REIT to gear up to a maximum of 60% if necessary.

Anyone who has been following my blog would know that I have been walking the talk when it comes to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. So, for anyone who has walked the walk with me although there has been no lack of naysayers, good on you. Congratulations!

Fair value for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, I believe, remains closer to S$1.25 per unit which would see its distribution yield compressing to about 8% per annum.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: How much higher?
2. OCBC Research: Industrial REITs.

Sabana REIT: Resistance to watch.

One month ago, I mentioned that Sabana REIT's unit price saw higher lows formed since August 2011 and that it was repeatedly testing gap resistance at 91c and 91.5c. I wondered then whether its unit price could break resistance to go higher. It did, going on to break resistance at 93.5c, and, in the last few sessions, tested resistance at 95c. It ended the day at 96c a unit with a massive buy up after market closed today.

Sabana REIT is my largest investment for passive income and what I have now is part of my core investment for passive income. So, it is unlikely that I would sell unless its unit price becomes very much over valued. Keeping the status quo, Sabana REIT would generate approximately 38% of my passive income from S-REITs alone this year.

I am expecting a higher DPU in the next quarter as contributions from acquisitions made in recent months as well as savings from lower cost of funding for newer loans kick in.

Technically, if the bullish momentum continues, 99.5c could be the next level to be tested in time.

At 99.5c, its distribution yield is still a very attractive 8.84%. I still feel that a fair value for the REIT's units is closer to $1.10 per unit which would see its distribution yield compressing to 8%.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

OCBC Research: Industrial REITs.

I came across an interesting piece of research by OCBC on industrial REITs in Singapore and would like to share the salient points here (some of which I have mentioned before in my blog):

Industrial REITs reported healthy 4Q11 results.

Industrial REITs appeared to outperform market expectations.

Expecting stable performance.

Operating metrics still healthy.

Earnings likely to stay resilient.

Percentage of leases due for renewal at comfortable level.

Aggregate leverage may inch upwards after funding potential investments.

Industrial REITs in better financial position now

Maintain OVERWEIGHT view.

I am pleased to see that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Sabana REIT, CIT and Cache Logistics Trust have all performed above consensus expectations as I am vested in all four. Bigger names such as Ascendas and Mapletree have only performed within expectations; not vested. (Refer to exhibit 3 in the report.)

See the full report: here.

Related post:
Office S-REITs VS. Industrial S-REITs (3).

STI breaks 3,000 points and stays above 3,000 points!

Although I am keeping to my pledge to spend more time with my family this year, I am also blogging less frequently because work got a bit more demanding.

I might have some spare time occassionally but instead of blogging, I just feel like spending time with a book or watching some movies on my iPad.

I know that some readers are lamenting the recent paucity of blog posts in ASSI and I apologise if I have disappointed.

Anyway, let's talk about my investments. I am now between 50% to 60% invested, closer to 50% is my estimate. With the bulk of my investment for passive income, I don't really have to do very much apart from looking at quarterly reports and receiving regular passive income.

On the real estate front, I am keeping an eye on developments as, after selling my properties last year, I am on a constant lookout for developments in good locations at fair prices.

3,011.68  Up 24.27

Enough of generalities. I put on my blogging cap this evening because the stock market rallied today and broke the 3,000 mark on high volume. The bull has legs and anyone who is still staying on the side with almost 100% in cash could be feeling quite despondent now.

Personally, I experimented with partially divesting some of my investments in REITs in the hope that prices would weaken upon XD to supports so that I could accumulate on weakness. This gambit has fared poorly, unfortunately for me.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, the second largest investment in my portfolio, rocketed to an intraday high of $1.10 before closing at $1.085. Fundamentally, it is still undervalued although technically, $1.10 could be a resistance to watch. The next higher resistance is at $1.125 while support is at the former resistance of $1.025.

My original plan of buying on weakness at 97c or so has to be shelved for now.

Sabana REIT, the largest investment in my portfolio, has tested its recent high of 91.5c yet again. Immediate support is at 90c. See the higher lows formed since early August 2011 while price repeatedly tested the gap resistance and gap fill at 91c and 91.5c?

Could Sabana REIT break resistance and go higher as well? My original plan to purchase more units upon retracement to stronger supports starting at 87c is also being shelved for now.

What is most satisfying about today's rally for me is the long white candle formed on the back of much higher volume for CapitaMalls Asia. The downtrend is well and truly broken. An uptrend is firmly entrenched. Notice how volume has been increasing as price rose from the bottom formed in late December last year? This rally should be durable because volume has been increasing.

Using Fibonacci lines, we see that price closed today at where the 123.6% Fibo line approximates. This is likely a weak resistance and would crumble in time. Golden ratios are at $1.70, $1.75 and $1.795. With half of my investment in the stock at $1.45 and lower, I might take some profit off the table if these ratios should be tested.

30% of my investments are between $1.60 to $1.80. The balance are at $1.80+. These, I might divest to limit losses especially if things look toppish. For now, it looks like price could go higher in the near term. Good luck to one and all.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

Sabana REIT: Target BUY prices.

A reader mentioned that Sabana REIT's unit price has weakened to 88c after going XD. A further weakening in price could be an opportunity to accumulate. I have the same thought. After all, I divested a small portion of my investment in the REIT at 90c and 91c as its unit price rose in the last couple of weeks.

Question: What would be my target buy prices? Prices? Yes, I see stronger supports at 87c, 86c, 85c and 84.5c. So, I could possibly accumulate at these prices if they should be tested for support.

In a recent blog post, I said that Sabana REIT could possibly see a higher DPU in the next quarter. So, accumulating on weakness could be a very rewarding exercise. See blog post: here.

I would also pay attention to the momentum oscillators to see if the REIT is oversold at any point in time. Good luck to all of us.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.

Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that immediate resistance for Sabana REIT is to be found at 91c. If this were to be taken out, we could see gap filling at 91.5c.

My sell order at 91c was filled today. Technically, if unit price should weaken when the REIT goes XD, we could see a decline to retest support which seems to be on a rising trendline. This would be in the region of 87c. That is a 4c difference if it should materialise.

As I have a large investment in the REIT and not forgetting that my primary aim of being vested is for income, I decided on divesting only a small portion (approximately 10% of total investment in the REIT) at resistance for a trade.

If the unit price should retest support, I would buy again. If unit price should go higher, I would also benefit from my remaining investment. This way, I could benefit both from units vested and units divested.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.