AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Making money.

The issue of how REITs must constantly raise funds in order to expand has been beaten to death and I have also blogged about it more than once. The debate can and probably will go on forever but, as far as I am concerned, it has little value and serves to distract us from what really matters.

If REITs are raising funds for activities that are yield accretive, I would readily support the exercise and would, in fact, try to subscribe for more than my entitlement of rights if the offer is very attractive. Bearing this in mind, I have been able to profit from rights issues. To me, as an investor, I want to make money and if I could profit from rights issues, I would.

To this end, one of the rights issues which I have made the most money out of was AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's. The rights were priced at 15.5c per unit. I applied for many excess rights and received quite a large number of rights units in that exercise. Post consolidation, these rights units cost 77.5c per unit. At today's price of, say, $1.22 per unit, there is a capital gain of about 57.5%. From then till now, I have also enjoyed an annual distribution yield (on cost) of some 13% on these units.

Of course, there are some who would point out that the units I was holding on to, pre-rights issue, suffered some dilution and loss in value. The suggestion is that Mr. Market would recognise this and that it could be reflected in the unit price. Well, at today's price of $1.22 a unit, it would translate into a pre-consolidation price of 24.4c per unit. I don't remember ever paying as much as 24c a unit, pre-consolidation, for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. There is something to be said about a penchance for buying into REITs which are trading at a (large) discount to their NAVs, perhaps.

Why am I quite suddenly talking about AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and rights issues?

OK, before you go clicking on SGX looking for announcements, no, they are not having a rights issue. Then why?

Well, some people say that I am always using First REIT as an example of how investing in REITs can be very rewarding. So, this is another example to the same effect, isn't it?

It is also a more powerful example since there were many who cursed George Wang et al. from the days when it was known as MI-REIT and in need of recapitalisation, declaring that the REIT would never amount to much after the rescue.

(Pause...)

29 Woodlands Industrial Park E1.

OK, if you have guessed that this is not the real reason behind this blog post, hurrah! You guessed correctly.

I try to be forward looking and care more about the future than I do about the past. Caring more about the past could become an obsession as I grow older though. I hope it would not happen although I am sure it is only a matter of time. I see enough examples of how it is happening to older people all the time.

The catalyst for this blog post is the annual report from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which I was flipping through over the weekend. Specifically, it has to do with the fact that quite a number of properties in the REIT's portfolio have re-development potential.

As we have seen in the current redevelopment of 20 Gul Way which is to be completed in two phases (phase 1 by November 2012 and phase 2 by December 2013), redevelopment is a very good way of delivering more value to unitholders.

The redevelopment of 20 Gul Way did not require any rights issue although there was a private placement to CWT Limited (and regular readers know that I would very much prefer rights issue but the private placement was rather small and a rights issue would have been rather costly.)

10 Soon Lee Road

Well, there are a few more properties in the REIT's portfolio which could be considered for re-development to take advantage of the maximum plot ratios allowed. Examples are:

10 Changi South Lane (Lease expiry: June 2056)
Current plot ratio: 1.60
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

541 Yishun Industrial Park A (Lease expiry: June 2054)
Current plot ratio: 1.28
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

2 Ang Mo Kio Street 65 (Lease expiry: March 2047)
Current plot ratio: 1.31
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

103 Defu Lane 10 (Lease expiry: June 2043)
Current plot ratio: 1.20
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

8 Senoko South Road (Lease expiry: October 2054)
Current plot ratio: 1.30
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

10 Soon Lee Road (Lease expiry: March 2041)
Current plot ratio: 0.88
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

With gearing level at 30% or so, I would not be surprised if a major rights issue is required if there should be plans to redevelop these sites. In fact, I expect it to take place. When will it take place? Ah, that one, I don't know.

If you think that I am quite excited with the prospect of another rights issue, you are right (pun unintended). I am pretty sure I am not the only one too.

Related posts:
1. REITs and rights issues: Dilutive or not?
2. REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulate on weakness.

My very first blog post on AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT in December 2009:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT).

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Voices, noises and choices.

The amount of information out there is enough to make one feel somewhat overwhelmed or even faint. I have not been reading blogs as much in the last one week and kept my reading primarily to Channel NewsAsia, The Business Times and Yahoo!Finance. Even so, it probably is enough to make heads spin.

Some proclaimed that the U.S. housing market has bottomed and is picking up! Conventional wisdom says that the U.S. housing market must pick up before we see a return to sustainable economic growth. On the same day, another article claimed that the U.S. economy is sliding back into recession!

Then, the stock markets around the world rallied because European banks can now be recapitalised directly from bailout funds. There are those who then said this is only a relief rally and it won't last. Their advice? Don't believe the rally! Sell the rally!

S&P500                       +2.49%

DAX                              +4.33%

What about the Singapore stock market? Some say that it is being re-rated upwards because stocks here are up 9.8% in H1. Some say that it is because of window dressing in the first half that has pushed the STI upwards. Huh? Which came first? The chicken or the egg?

Hey, don't believe me, go get a copy of the weekend edition of The Business Times today. (Er, in case some are wondering, no, this is not a paid advertorial by The Business Times although you could be helping me a tiny bit as I am a shareholder of SPH.)

OK, if you have not fallen off your chair or reached for a bottle of medicated oil by now, good.

So, what are we to do? Do we join the bullish camp or the bearish camp? Regular readers would have guessed my answer. I would say neither. Stay practical. Stay invested but have a war chest ready.

Staying 100% or mostly in cash is not a good idea. It is unproductive as higher than average inflation chips away the value of our cash on hand. In fact, The Business Times has an article today which says that although the Singapore labour market is tight and although people might receive increments to their salaries, they are seeing little gain due to high inflation. Like what we learned in economics, there is nominal wage increase but not much real wage increase.

Actually, businesses are finding rising costs a struggle to deal with. Restaurants have reduced the size of portions being served and have, in some cases, increased prices.

At Ichiban Boshi, my family like to order soft shell crabs because we find that $5.50 for 2 soft shell crabs (cut into halfs) is not too bad. However, when we ordered it again a month or so ago, we only found 3 halfs on the plate. We thought perhaps 1 half fell on the kitchen floor or something. Anyway, when we ordered it again on a more recent visit, there were still 3 halfs only.  Inflation had spirited away half a soft shell crab although price stayed at $5.50 a portion. Sheesh!

There are many costs of doing business and rent is a big one here. Rental rates in Singapore have been going up and up. Thus far, the only sector that has seen a decline in rent is in prime office space due to more than ample supply. There were signs very early on which is why I have been underweighting this sector in my porfolio of S-REITs. However, we can expect this sector to recover rapidly if the global economy picks up again. Just bear in mind that office tenants are a rather footloose bunch.

SPH's Clementi Mall.

Generally, however, it is a very good time to be landlords. For the vast majority of us who are not financially able to participate by owning shops and buildings directly, investing in selected S-REITs and SPH is the next best thing. In fact, some might say it is even better as we do not have to worry about the day to day operations of the properties. Well, there are pros and cons, to be sure.

There are many voices out there and we have many choices. However, we have to always remember not to be intimidated by all the information being stuffed in our faces. What is worse than having no information? It is to be drowning in too much information.

Know what matters. Everything else is just noise, is it not?

Related posts:
1. Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs (4)
2. Staying postive on S-REITs.
3. Bearish or Bullish?
4. SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

Market gyrations, my portfolio and a sabbatical.

My investments in S-REITs are holding up nicely which gives credence to my strategy to overweight S-REITs in my portfolio. Their relative price stability and high distribution yields provide some solace in a volatile market.

A brief look at some of my larger investments in S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT closed at $1.20 per unit. My cost per unit ranges from $0.775 to $1.10.

2. Sabana REIT closed at $0.97 a unit. I first initiated a long position at $0.93 in March 2011. I bought more as its unit price sank below $0.90. I am still holding on to those units I bought at $0.865.

3. First REIT closed at $0.90 a unit. This is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.42 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.50 a unit. I bought more nil-paid rights for a total cost of $0.66 a unit. I also bought more units at $0.70+c.

4. LMIR closed at $0.39 a unit. Like First REIT, this is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.185 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.31 a unit. I also bought more nil-paid rights for total cost of $0.331 to $0.365 a unit.

5. Saizen REIT closed at $0.143 a unit. The history I have had with this REIT is somewhat bumpy. I increased my long position once again with a large purchase as its warrants reached their last day of trading not too long ago. Average price of that purchase $0.129.

I have collected many quarters of income distributions from these investments and my war chest is constantly being refilled. So, I constantly have funds to take advantage of any investment opportunities which might come along.

My strategy is to stay partially invested as we must also have cash to continue investing especially if Mr. Market decides to sell good quality stocks and trusts at bargain basement prices.

Recent efforts to invest in some companies instead of S-REITs have produced below average results. In fact, my poorly timed investments in China Minzhong and Wilmar, although relatively small, are a drag on my portfolio's performance. If I had stuck to my strategy of concentrating on S-REITs in recent times, my porfolio would have fared much better.

Of course, there would be people who disagree. Readers who comb the cyberspace for information would have, no doubt, come across some local blogs which vilify REITs. Well, everyone is entitled to his own opinions.

I have gotten somewhat tired of defending my position. Actually, why do I even need to defend my strategy? If people like it, they are welcome to follow. If they don't like it, don't follow. This is a free world. Just don't be rude.

I was never a savvy person with IT stuff and when I discovered blogging, I was like a child who discovered the sweetness of sugar. I got a sugar high. I have always enjoyed writing. So, I took to blogging like a fish to water. Also, as I age, I have developed an increasingly serious speech impediment. To a rather talkative person, this is an annoyance and makes blogging even more of an outlet of expression.

Making money from blogging was never a first thing on my mind. It came about later on when friends suggested that I could put some ads in my blog. I must say that I have been able to make some pocket money this way. Pocket money? Hey, Nuffnang pays me 20c for every click I get for ads they place on my blog. If my primary motivation for starting this blog is to make money, I must be seriously mental.

If I were to stop blogging tomorrow, what would I lose in monetary rewards?

Well, I have been thinking of taking a break from blogging and I have shared this thought here in my blog as well. There are other aspects of my life I would like to spend more time on. There are also people I would and should spend more time with. It is also quite obvious to regular readers that I have been blogging less frequently too.

We often hear of the saying that "this is the last straw that broke the camel's back". Well, I think I got another catalyst to stop blogging at least for a while earlier this evening.

To my regular readers, you know which blog posts I have here in my blog which would keep you squarely on your goal of financial freedom. Each time you waver, come back to my blog and go down the right sidebar. I would also be doing the same, no doubt. It is not easy to start but start we must. The journey is hard but go on we must. When we see the results of our effort, it would get easier and easier. Remember, if AK71 has done it, you can too.

To new readers, understand that we are all different. Not everyone can be a Warren Buffet or Donald Trump or Robert Kiyosaki. They have all taken their own paths to success. You should find your own. Reading my blog, if you feel that my way is something you would like to emulate, give it a go but know that everyone's circumstances are different. Set for yourself realistic goals. Take baby steps but you have to work towards building up passive income to a level that is equal to or exceeds your earned income. Then, you would have achieved financial freedom and you work because you want to and not because you have to.

In everything we do, there is an element of luck. Even Warren Buffet was wrong before. No one is God and even with Him, there is debate on things He might have done wrong. OK, this is a sign that I should stop. Yes, Father, I have sinned.

----------------
The following was a blog post written on 28 November 2011 after talking to "ao" in LP's infamous cbox (Bully the Bear). It was never published... till now:

A reader asked me recently if I ever get tired of replying to comments in my blog, especially with skeptics aplenty when it comes to my investments in REITs. I told him that I am only human and I do feel tired sometimes.


Recently, I had lunch with the blogmaster of Time to Huat and another long time friend. They asked the same thing, almost. One of them said that some comments were almost repetitive and marvelled at my patience in replying to every comment even so.


To me, I feel that if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well. How do we measure worth? In the world of blogging, at least to me, it is not measured in dollars and cents. I would be better off giving private tuition with my time, using such a measure.


When I started blogging, I took on certain responsibilities whether I knew it at that point in time or not. I am airing my thoughts in cyberspace. I am sharing ideas. Of course, there will be questions and also disagreements. What is a blogger to do? Face these squarely.


Being a blogger is like being a semi public figure. Semi public? Yes, we can choose to blog without revealing our true identity. I have gotten a taste of what it is like to be a semi public figure and I doubt I would ever want to be a public figure. So, although I have met a handful of readers and fellow bloggers so far, I have decided quite some time back to be more reclusive. I value my privacy too much to ever become a public figure.


Recently, I have been thinking again whether I should stop blogging altogether. My blog posts are usually crafted with care  So, it takes up a lot of time and I only have so much time...

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Wilmar: Not a time to sell.

On 5 June 12, I did a blog post on whether it was time to go long on Wilmar. Yesterday, someone asked me as well if it is now a good time to go long on Wilmar.

To any seasoned market watcher, Wilmar's share price must look quite tantalising as it hit a low of $3.41 on 14 June 12. That was a good 43% lower than its one year high of $5.99 a share.

Now, if we should think of a reason for the decline in price, it is clearly because of the company's disappointing earnings. The company's crushing business is likely to remain very difficult for some time to come. In fact, the CEO said it could take a few years for excess capacity in China to be absorbed. As this business is about 25% of the company's revenue, a decline in its share price is to be expected but the decline has been disproportional. I have no doubt that short sellers made quite a bit of money here as well.

Wilmar's share price has seemingly found a floor and has rebounded somewhat. I see immediate resistance at $3.70 or so. If it should break resistance, we would probably see short sellers covering their positions which would send share price higher to test the next resistance.

If the company's share price should test a new low, everything remaining constant, we should see stronger buying interest returning. Technically, the momentum oscillators are rising and, so, support this thesis. Look out for a higher low in the momentum oscillators then. That would be a clear signal to go long as the share price is set up for a reversal.

Is it time to buy Wilmar's shares? I feel, at least, it is not a time to sell.

Related post:
Wilmar and China Minzhong: Time to go long?

SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

SPH is still my largest investment in a Singapore blue chip and it is an important part of my high yield portfolio. CIMB now suggests that investing in SPH is better than investing in retail S-REITs. It would be a happy coincidence for me if CIMB should be right as my only exposure to retail S-REITs is a small long position in Suntec REIT, much smaller than my investment in SPH.

Singapore Press Holdings is becoming increasingly like a retail real estate investment trust (REIT), CIMB Research said, noting its growing retail property arm and stable media business, as well as typical payouts of more than 90%...


The broker also said SPH is a cheaper alternative for investors seeking exposure to retail Singapore REITS after the stock’s underperformance, offering yields of 6.4% versus an average of 6.1% for retail Singapore REITs...


CIMB said revenue compound annual growth rate for SPH’s “gem asset”, Paragon shopping mall in Singapore, stood at 8.3% over 2006-2011, outstripping growth for comparable assets under retail Singapore REITs.


Related post:
SPH: Interim dividend of 7c per share.

CIMB says SPH a “pseudo retail REIT”. It upgraded its rating on SPH to outperform from neutral and raised its price target to $4.19 from $4.13.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Singapore property prices to stay resilient?

If the latest report by Maybank is correct, then, the expected 20 to 30% decline in Singapore property prices over the next couple of years might not transpire. The expectation is now for a mere 10% decline in property prices over the next 18 months. This suggests that any dip in prices could see showflats packed with buyers again.

Related post:
Affordability of housing in Singapore.

Singapore residential sector to see soft landing. Shares in CapitalMalls Asia have jumped nearly 32% this year, while CapitaLand rose 22% and Keppel Land is up nearly 39%.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Marco Polo Marine: Persistent insider buying.

I find Marco Polo Marine, an offshore and marine company, a rather interesting proposition at current prices of 31.5c to 32.5c a share.

1. PER of about 8x
2. Net profit margin just under 20%
3. NAV per share at 37c
4. Interest cover ratio at 8.3x
5. Gearing at 30%

Marco Polo Marine has the intention of listing an Indonesian subsidiary on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. This could unlock value as Kim Eng estimates the listing could value the company's stake in the Indonesian subsidiary at more than 30% of the company's current market cap.

Perhaps, it is the persistent insider buying over the last 12 months that really nailed it for me here:

Announce Date [Date of Effective Change]	Buyer/ Seller Name [Type*]	S/ W/ U **	Bought/ (Sold) ('000)	Price ($)
					After: No. of Shares ('000) ***	% Held ***
05/06/12 [05/06/12]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	1,095	0.325	195,311	57.02
05/06/12 [05/06/12]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	95	0.325	191,399	56.17
01/06/12 [01/06/12]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	110	0.335	194,216	57.00
01/06/12 [01/06/12]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	110	0.335	191,304	56.14
16/05/12 [16/05/12]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	114	0.340	194,106	56.96
16/05/12 [16/05/12]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD [SSH]	S	114	0.340	191,194	56.11
10/05/12 [10/05/12]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	100	0.340	193,733	56.85
10/05/12 [10/05/12]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD [SSH]	S	100	0.340	191,080	56.08
15/12/11 [14/12/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	159	0.335	193,892	56.90
14/12/11 [13/12/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	100	0.335	193,733	56.85
05/12/11 [02/12/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	100	0.341	193,633	56.83
05/12/11 [02/12/11]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	100	0.341	190,980	56.05
02/12/11 [02/12/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	70	0.345	193,533	56.80
02/12/11 [02/12/11]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	70	0.345	190,880	56.02
28/11/11 [28/11/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	11	0.330	193,463	56.77
28/11/11 [28/11/11]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	11	0.330	190,810	56.00
28/11/11 [25/11/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	500	0.330	193,452	56.77
28/11/11 [25/11/11]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	500	0.330	190,799	55.99
07/09/11 [06/09/11]	LAI QIN ZHI [DIR]	S	71	0.337	192,952	56.63
07/09/11 [06/09/11]	LAI QIN ZHI [DIR]	S	100	0.343	192,881	56.60
07/09/11 [06/09/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	71	0.337	192,952	56.62
07/09/11 [06/09/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	100	0.343	192,881	56.60
07/09/11 [06/09/11]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	100	0.343	190,299	55.85
05/09/11 [02/09/11]	LAI QIN ZHI [DIR]	S	117	0.350	192,781	56.58
05/09/11 [02/09/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	117	0.350	192,781	56.58
31/08/11 [29/08/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	100	0.350	192,664	56.54
31/08/11 [29/08/11]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	100	-	190,199	55.82
29/08/11 [26/08/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	64	0.345	192,564	56.51
25/08/11 [25/08/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	299	0.338	192,500	56.49
25/08/11 [25/08/11]	NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]	S	299	-	190,099	55.79
24/08/11 [23/08/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	50	0.340	192,201	56.41
23/08/11 [22/08/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	251	0.332	192,151	56.39
22/08/11 [19/08/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	170	0.333	191,900	56.32
19/08/11 [18/08/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	300	0.347	191,730	56.27
21/06/11 [20/06/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	100	0.374	191,430	56.18
20/06/11 [17/06/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	150	0.373	191,330	56.15
16/06/11 [15/06/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	120	0.376	191,180	56.10
14/06/11 [13/06/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	150	0.377	191,060	56.07
10/06/11 [09/06/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	100	0.386	190,910	56.02
07/06/11 [06/06/11]	LEE WAN TANG [DIR]	S	200	0.385	190,810	56.00

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT: Performance fees.

This issue of The EDGE has a very interesting article by Goola Warden on S-REITs. In a nutshell, it looks at potential conflicts of interest between their external managers and unitholders. To this end, it looks at the layers of fees charged by the managers.

As investors, we want to make sure that the REIT managers are fairly rewarded since no one would work for free. However, we have to safeguard our interests too especially when there is a lack of uniformity in the way the fees are calculated.

On the issue of performance fee, CLSA says that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT are amongst S-REITs with the most equitable performance fee structures. The managers are only paid performance fees upon satisfying certain conditions.

The manager of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT gets paid 0.1% of the deposited property value if distribution per unit (DPU) growth exceeds 2.5% per annum. The manager gets paid 0.2% of the deposited property value if DPU growth exceeds 5% per annum.

The manager of Sabana REIT gets paid 0.5% of the net property income (NPI) if the REIT achieves DPU growth of 10% per annum for unitholders.

So, if unitholders get a meaningfully higher DPU, the managers are rewarded with a performance fee. I doubt if anyone would quarrel with this. It appeals to my sense of fair play.

Between the two REITs, however, I believe that Sabana REIT's performance fee structure is fairer. Rewarding the manager with a percentage of the NPI makes sense because a higher DPU is probably due to a higher NPI. 

So, having the REIT manager rewarded a percentage of the NPI makes more sense to me than rewarding them with a percentage of the deposited property value.

Nonetheless, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's conditional performance fee is still better than those of REITs like Suntec REIT which pays 4.5% of the REIT's NPI as performance fee to its manager regardless of performance. 

Er... Am I missing something here?

Seems like there is more reason to like Sabana REIT now apart from its very high distribution yield. ;)

Reference:
"Growth versus value.", Goola Warden, The EDGE, pages 22 to 24, 18 June 2012.

Related posts:
1. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2011.

Olam: Accumulate now?

A few days ago, I blogged about Olam and how Kim Eng has a SELL recommendation. That got a reader who is invested in Olam sufficiently flustered to send me an email. Hey, I was just sharing an analysis which I thought made sense. Don't shoot the messenger and if it is any consolation, my badly timed initial investment in Wilmar fared worse.

"Olam has been the second worst performing member of the STI this year, with only Wilmar having done worse." (The EDGE, 18 June)

Anyhow, the article by Joan Ng in the same publication went on to report that CIMB Research thinks that present cheap valuations could be a buying opportunity for long term investors.

"The correct investment stratey to follow since 2009 has been to raise market exposure and beta when sentiment enters the panic zone, like now," Ajay Kapur, Deutsche Bank. He notes that there have been three major reflation exercises over the past three years.

"At the start of each of these episodes, investors were incorrectly cynical, consumed by the panic of the moment. We think we are on the verge of another policy reflation in the coming weeks or months. Start buying during this bottoming process rather than over-analysing." (The EDGE, 18 June)

For the numerically inclined, Olam is said to be trading at a price to book value of only 1.2x now compared to its trough of 1.5x during the global financial crisis.

Accumulate? Olam's management seems to think their stock presents great value too.

Related post:
Olam: Share price up on buy backs.

Soup Restaurant: Gain of $7.7m.

On 14 June, Soup Restaurant confirmed the sale of its stake in YES F&B Group Pte Ltd. The consideration is S$7.9m which represents an excess of some S$7.7m over the cost of investment of the Group at the end of FY2011.

The net tangible assets (NTA) per share and consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Soup Restaurant will be positively impacted in the current FY2012. The former would see an increase of 1.18c per share while the latter would see an increase of 1.05c per share.

The completion of such a sale is not going to happen immediately. It is going to take some time but the rising OBV seems to be telling us that smart money is accumulating shares of Soup Restaurant even as its share price suffers from some weakness in recent sessions.

I bought some shares recently at 12.3c. If I do not make money from this investment, at least I would get a 15% discount when I dine at Soup Restaurant outlets in future as a shareholder. ;p

See announcement: here.

Related post:
Soup Restaurant: Special dividend?

China Minzhong: High volume white candle day.

Having added to my long position in China Minzhong recently, believing that it was not a time to sell, I am pleased to say that I seem to be on the same page as Mr. Market now.

I added more to my long position today as share price broke resistance provided by the 20dMA at 57c on the back of very high volume in the morning. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and the high volume breakout could see some follow through.

Fundamentally undervalued, China Minzhong was, technically, also very oversold. However, with the relentless selling by Mr. Market and decline in share price, the technicals are pretty damaged and it would take some time to repair.

The share price is in a downtrend; there is no doubt about it. Drawing a trend line shows us where resistance could be found over time in the event of a price recovery. Shortists who might have covered their shorts today could come out of the woodwork once the share price is at resistance.

In the meantime, the rising momentum oscillators suggest that selling pressure continues to ease and if buying pressure should continue to overcome the sellers, a test of trend line resistance is on the horizon.

The resistance provided by the declining 50dMA is something to watch out for as, if I were to hazard a guess, sellers would be out in force then. Immediate support is now provided by the 20dMA, formerly resistance at 57c.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Too cheap to sell.

Buying a piece of real estate within your means.

This blog post is part of ASSI's voluntary community service to help raise awareness on personal financial planning. Sounds altruistic, doesn't it? Well, it doesn't cost me anything.

Sky Habitat. 509 units in two 38 storey towers. Price: $1,700 psf!

From the CPF Board:

Buying a house is the single most expensive financial commitment for most people. This decision can be scary if you have not done your sums. It is worse if you have committed to a home you cannot afford.

If you haven't given much thought to your home purchase, use the checklist created by the CPF Board to guide you through your decision making.

Take part in an online quiz to win attractive prizes: http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/ayr_list.asp?catid=2



Related post:
Buying a private property?

Olam: Share price up on buy backs.

I have always thought Olam's gearing level quite scary. Then again, it is the same with Noble and Wilmar although not as highly geared as Olam. I was told that their business models are such that high gearing level is nothing to worry about. Indeed, Mr. Market seemed to think so as their share prices were sky high once upon a time.

Gearing is a double edged sword and if a business is able to magnify its returns through gearing, then, higher gearing would intensify the returns many times over. However, in down times, things could turn really ugly. Then again, in the current environment of very low interest rates, borrowers are shouldering much lighter burdens.

When Olam announced that they are buying back shares from the market, my immediate reaction was a positive one. Hey, the management are confident in their own business and are walking the talk. However, when we remember that it still has plenty of debt in its books, it doesn't seem to make much sense anymore.

Kim Eng has this to say:
Share price jumps on buyback mandate. Olam’s share price has jumped 11% since the company announced last Friday that it has commenced a share buyback programme. While such a move is usually a positive sign, the circumstances for Olam seem rather unusual. Fundamentals-wise, other than to deter the short sellers, we do not think it is necessarily an enhancive step for shareholders. Borrowing money to purchase shares. The case for a share buyback is stronger for companies with piles of idle cash coupled with strong operating cash flows. Olam, however, is considered highly leveraged with net gearing of 189% and adjusted net gearing of 42% as at FY6/12. Since listing in 2004, its operating cash flow has been positive only in 2006 and 2009 as funds were needed for expansionary working capital.

Kim Eng has a SELL recommendation on Olam with a TP of $1.43.

Defensive stocks and REITs outperform in volatile times.

Market volatility has become a norm and it is getting harder to time the market. Rather than sitting on the bench and having your savings eroded by inflation, REITs have what it takes to provide you the value protection barring any major exogenous shocks. Defensive play would be better option taking into condition of the current erratic climate. Above all, the compelling yield will support the price and smoothen the overall individual’s portfolio returns.

Source: Phillip Capital
Read: REIT Sector Update, 12 June 2012.


Related posts:
1. Investing in REITs: A flawed strategy?
2. Telcos and REITs are top performers in May.

Saizen REIT: Insiders are accumulating again.

I read this in The Business Times just last evening:

CEO, Chang Sean Pey and executive director, Raymond Wong, acquired units in Saizen REIT this month with a combined 602,000 units purchased from 4 to 7 June at 14 cents each.

This is the CEO's first on-market trade since September 2011. The CEO now holds 3.65 million units or 0.26%. He acquired 2.02m units from March 2009 to September 2011 at an average price of 15.5c each.

Executive director, Raymond Wong, now has a deemed stake of 24.909m units or 1.74%. Prior to the acquisitions this month, he acquired 6.7m units from February 2009 to August 2010 at 10c to 17c each or an average of 14.3c each.

Also positive this quarter, executive director, Chan Kin, purchased 530,000 units on May 25 at 13c each. His deemed holdings increased to 185.041m units or 13.8%.

Of course, with insiders buying, it does not mean that the unit price is only going up from now.  However, do they know something we don't? Or do we know what they know but are unwilling to act like they have?

I do know Saizen REIT would be paying its half yearly income distribution in September. Is it going to be a bumper distribution?

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: Why did I buy and would I buy more?
2. Saizen REIT: Insiders buying again at 14c.
3. Saizen REIT: Acquisitions to increase DPU.

China Minzhong: Too cheap to sell.

One of the things we hear is that we should buy at prices we would not sell at and to sell at prices we would not buy at. Not too long ago, on 5 June 12, I said that it is not a good time to sell China Minzhong's shares and that it would be more sensible to think of adding to any long positions. See the blog post: here.

In a research dated 11 June 12, Kim Eng says that:

We would not recommend investors to cut loss at this stage as stock valuations are still too cheap to do so. ... The next catalyst for the stock would be the full-year results ended in June 2012. We expect to see revenue recovery due to the late-winter season and the fact that Minzhong should also be able to collect the bulk of its receivables in 4QFY6/12. The full-year numbers should reveal the impact of the European problem on both demand and asset quality.

How low can the share price go? We conduct a scenario analysis to determine how low the share price can fall to ... Although we believe that the share price has already factored in the potential slowdown in demand in Europe and our target PER of 4.7x is 25% below the historical average, we have:

1. cut our sales volume further by an aggressive 40%,

2. written down CNY200m in receivables for FY6/13, and

3. revalued the share price at 3.7x PER, which is 1 standard deviation below the historical average PER.

The upshot is a target price of SGD0.51, which is only a little below the current price of SGD0.53.

Minzhong’s worst case NAV per share (we exclude land use rights, land improvement costs as well as 20% of trade receivables) also suggests the current share price provides a very safe floor.

Soup Restaurant: Special dividend?

Some of us might remember the recent saga of Soup Restaurant VS. Dian Xiao Er. For those not in the know, there was an announcement on 4 April by Soup Restaurant: read it here.

What interests me is this:

On 4 April 2012, the Plaintiffs communicated their acceptance of the Defendants’ 3 April 2012 offer. The Plaintiffs have agreed to purchase SRG and SRI’s shareholding of 50.98% in YES for the sum of S$7,901,900.00 (i.e. 50.98% of S$15,500,000.00), and for parties to withdraw or discontinue their respective claims and counterclaims in the Suit.

The Company is pleased that the Plaintiffs have accepted the Defendants’ offer without qualification, and that they have agreed to settle the Suit on the basis proposed by the Defendants. The Company is of the view that this outcome best ensures that shareholders’ value in the Company is preserved.

This was followed by another announcement by Soup Restaurant on what might they do with the money coming in. Read announcement by the Company: here.

Soup Restaurant said if the sale goes through, it has three options available to it on the use of the proceeds: distribute all the proceeds by way of a special dividend, use the proceeds to fund expansions, or distribute part of the proceeds to shareholders and deploy the balance for expansion.

Based on the number of shares on issue (298.5m shares), if Soup Restaurant were to pay out all the proceeds of $7.9m to shareholders, each share would get 2.6c in special dividend. If the Company decides to pay out half of the proceeds and retain half to fund its business expansion plans, it would still be an attractive 1.3c per share in special dividend.

Its share price closed at 12.5c in the last session.

Read the story: Dian Xiao Er no longer in the Soup.

Win cash and a trip to any European city!

Nestle is into her 100th year and they’ve created iFeedback, a mobile application to collect feedback on Nestle’s products and packaging. Participants can win cash prizes and 2 Finnair tickets to ANY Euporean city by downloading the app!

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