Two great minds on Greece and gold.

I found these clips of recent separate interviews with Marc Faber and Jim Rogers as they shared their views on Greece and gold.  Make good sense, as usual.

5 March 2010
Marc Faber on CNBC - Greece and gold.



26 March 2010
Jim Rogers on CNBC - Greece and gold.





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Gold as an insurance against inflation.
Gold or silver.
Real value of gold.

Charts in brief: 9 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia: The reversal signal was confirmed today on moderately higher volume as a white candle was formed.  Significantly, price closed above resistance provided by the 20dMA for the first time since 23 March.  The MACD has made contact with the signal line and looks set for a bullish crossover.  Stochastics has formed a higher low as it emerged from the oversold region.  A retest of $2.41 is most likely in the event of a continuing upmove in price.

Golden Agriculture:  Mixed signals seen.  Sell signal confirmed on the MACD on a white candle day as price closed higher at 61c, forming a white spinning top in the process.  The MFI has formed a higher low but note that volume is lower today, an up day, compared to the last two days which were down days.  In TA, we work on probabilities based on the weight of the evidence. This is one of those occasions where I cannot tell if the chances are higher for further upside or a correction downwards.

Saizen REIT: After a short bout of profit taking yesterday, Saizen REIT formed a dragonfly doji today on higher volume as price closed at 17.5c.  MFI continues rising as the sell signal seen on the MACD yesterday was negated.

Healthway Medical: Price broke resistance today and touched a high of 17.5c before closing at 17c, the resistance provided by the declining 20dMA.  Volume expanded and it seems that the MACD might do a bullish crossover with the signal line.  MFI has formed a higher low, suggesting a return of buying momentum. OBV has turned up.  All these are providing hopeful signals to people who remain bullish on Healthway Medical in the short run.  Another chance to sell at 18.5c, perhaps?

SPH: Another white candle day for SPH as it closed at $3.97, just three cents short of the target I have for it at $4.00.  The MACD is tearing away upwards from the signal line.  Very bullish. OBV is rising steeply, suggesting ongoing accumulation.  The MFI has moved into overbought territory but the momentum suggests that $4.00 is almost a foregone conclusion.  After, $4.00?  I see $4.20 as the next resistance.

Courage Marine:  The price closed at 22.5c today, a high achieved on 29 March.  A white candle day on the back of increased volume is reassuring for bulls. OBV has turned up and the MACD is moving higher up away from the signal line.  The technicals suggest further upside and my eventual target remains at 27c, the high achieved on 28 Sep 09.  Gap resistance at 23.5c will have to be overcome first in such an instance.

AusGroup: In my last TA, I said that "the MFI has formed a higher low. This suggests that buying momentum is still strong. OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet. AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey".  AusGroup closed at 65.5c today and looks like it might push higher.  Congratulations to those vested.


Related post:
Charts in brief: 8 April 10.

Dry bulk carriers: Jason shares.

A reader, Jason, has provided, in my opinion, a wealth of information on dry bulk carriers and what we should be concerned about in the next few years.  I would like to highlight Jason's comments here in a proper post:

"...there are monthly publications that cover dry bulk extensively. You can try shipping.capitallink.com - links to lots of shipping information, ship indexes and its weekly newsletter has got plenty of information also on dry bulk shipping.......



"Just so i give you an idea of what dry bulk shipping is all about category of ships:

"VLOCs (very large ore carriers) - primarily used to carry iron ore, Vale will become the owner of the largest VLOC fleet in the world.


"Purpose is to get economies of scales to move iron ore from Brazil to China, compete against BHP/Rio who are much nearer vis-a-vis Australia.


"Capesizes: Moving mostly the hard dry bulk cargoes viz iron ore + coal (usually 120,000 dwt to 220,000 dwt range)


"Panamax: moves coal/iron ore/grains (70,000 dwt to 120,000 dwt)


"Handysizes/Handymax/Supramax: moves everything under the sun - offers the greatest flexibility due to their size, can stop at any port of call to unload (5,000dwt to 69,000dwt)


"To gauge charter rates, you have to look at their respective indexes : BCI (baltic capesize index), BPI (panamax index), BHI (handy index)......charter rates for panamaxes have overtaken capesizes! This was driven by the grains markets - 5 biggest producers being USA, South America (Argentina/brazil), Russia, Europe, Australia.


"Right now, fleets are looking to Asia for business - China (iron ore + coal), India (coal), Japan (iron ore, coal), Korea (coal, iron ore) why? Cos Asia houses some of the biggest steel producers in the world! China - Baosteel/Shagang/many more. India - Arcelor Mittal. Japan - Nippon Steel. Korea - POSCO


"Right now,USA gets its iron ore from backyard (domestic + Canada). Europe still imports from Australia/Brazil but not much cos their economy is still in the toilet for now.


"Coal is very much part of the steel production (used in the blast furnaces) and power plants, of which India especially is lacking in the latter while China needs the former! Why the boom in China? Biggest car mkt in the world (13.6m cars in 2009), property boom, infrastructure spending from new stimulus package in 2010.


"So ships will be everywhere but mostly with an eye for Asia. China is gobbling up every known commodity on earth - copper/aluminium/zinc etc, wheat, cotton....rates keep going cos charterers pay more to get ships out from the far east to Europe/baltic/atlantic.


"So long as Courage Marine can focus its biz on China/Asia/India exclusively, the upside is there. And we all know doing biz in China is all about guan xi......:) Keep that guan xi and you are OK.


"As for the progressive new ships coming on board, the ship owners will suffer the most whilst the charterers will be laughing to the bank - i can pick and choose my shipper!"

In my reply, I suggested that the demand for dry bulk carriers is likely to remain strong in Asia but as Jason pertinently pointed out, the world of dry bulk carriers would be focusing on Asia to pick up the excess capacity and with new ships joining the fray in the coming years, a lid might be put on earnings with increased competition. 

Based on my analysis of Courage Marine's numbers, with their strict cost management and very low gearing, I believe that they will be able to do relatively well.  If revenue reduces and costs stay low, we can weather storms.  If revenue reduces and costs are high, we are most likely on a sinking ship.

Courage Marine is also very focused in offering their services in the Greater China region where growth is the strongest in the world.  Since 2001, Courage Marine has built a good name for itself in this region.  It is small but nimble. As long as Asia continues to do well, Courage Marine would be a key beneficiary.

A China Bubble? People Have Been Saying That Forever
Posted Apr 08, 2010 09:46am EDT by Henry Blodget



Related post:
Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.

Charts in brief: 8 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia: A doji, another reversal signal, was formed today with price closing at $2.29 with the lowest volume in weeks.  A reversal signal again?  Dare I hope?

Golden Agriculture:  Yesterday, I said that with "both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal".  The counter went to touch a low of 59c today before closing at 60c.  MFI and OBV continue to decline and we see a sell signal on the MACD. If we look at the chart, the 20dMA has not been very reliable as a support in past instances.  I would look to the 50dMA instead this time for a strong support.  It is currently at 55c.

Saizen REIT: A black candle day as price closed at 17c on lower volume.  Likely short term profit taking.  It is quite clear from the chart that 17c was a resistance level since 22 Jan 10.  We need confirmation in the next few sessions to see if 17c is resistance turned support.  If it is, chances are that price action would be forming a new base at 17c before moving higher.  Such is the slow motion rise of Saizen REIT but the longer term MAs are rising and there is no question that the longer term uptrend is intact.

Healthway Medical: Another gravestone doji as price closed unchanged at 16.5c.  This is somewhat impressive but with the 20dMA and 50dMA both completing their downturns, a move downwards to critical support at 16c looks most likely in the near term.  The MFI has also formed a lower high and this suggests that buying momentum is definitely weakening.

SPH: Reversal signal was negated as SPH formed a nice and long wickless white candle, closing at $3.94.  OBV is rising strongly as accumulation carries on.  MFI has flattened and is not overbought.  A push towards $4.00 is now looking very likely.

AusGroup: Touched a high of 64c on respectable volume but closed at 62c.  This candlestick is very bearish.  63c remains the immediate resistance.  On top of this, the MACD has a sell signal.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low.  This suggests that buying momentum is still strong.  OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet.  AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey.

Oceanus: Sell signal confirmed today on the MACD.  Price closed at 36.5c which is support provided by the 100dMA.  We will need confirmation whether this is the new support level.  If it breaks, next support is at 35c.

Genting SP: Volume shrank as price closed at 89.5c.  It would be interesting to see if it continues basing at this level or moves to test the recent low of 83.5c in time.  With MFI and Stochastics near oversold regions, I do not expect any drastic downward movement in price if news stay benign.

China Hongxing: No follow through from yesterday as price formed a black candle, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  Immediate support remains at 15c.  Fundamentally, the company has many challenges and made some bad decisions last year.  The slightest positive newsflow in such a situation might have a strong positive impact on the share price.

Some readers asked if I am vested in all the counters I cover.  I'm not.  I am not vested in the last four counters here, for example.  I do the TA for these for various other reasons.  If you happen to be vested in these counters, I hope the TA is useful to you.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.