Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
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Change is the real constant in life, many would say.
Back in June 2020, I published a blog on how worried I was.
Why was I worried?
Dividends from my investments during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced pretty significantly.
The central banks were also lowering interest rates again in order to keep their economies alive.
That meant even lower interest income for my fixed deposits.
It was a double whammy.
Without an earned income, the double whammy was pretty impactful for me.
Fortunately, being a worrier, I built buffers before retiring early so many years ago.
I had an emergency fund which I was prepared to dip into if things got even worse in the same way our country dipped into our reserves during the pandemic.
It is imperative to hold a buffer against possible crises.
Our country has reserves and we should have emergency funds.
Readers who have been following my blogs for some time know what I say about regular folks like us keeping our needs simple and our wants few if we want to achieve financial freedom earlier.
It means to live well below our means.
There are people who then retire early once their passive income is able to cover their basic necessities in life with very little or no room for error.
They call it lean F.I.R.E.
I think it should be called shaky F.I.R.E.
OK, maybe I am just mental but I like to have buffers in case things go wrong.
If I didn't have buffers, with reduced dividends and interest income during the COVID-19 pandemic, I might have had to look for a job in a very difficult environment.
Just thinking of the possibility is giving me an anxiety attack.
Yes, PTSD moment right there.
What is the opposite of lean F.I.R.E. then?
Fat F.I.R.E. sounds unhealthy but maybe that is what it is.
While lean F.I.R.E. is about having just enough passive income to cover basic necessities in life, I suppose fat F.I.R.E. means being able to afford some luxuries as well.
There is a limit to how tight lean F.I.R.E. can be while the sky is the limit for fat F.I.R.E.
If I am a very sensible person, I would live like I am on lean or shaky F.I.R.E. when I have already achieved fat F.I.R.E.
This is because we don't know what we don't know.
However, I am not very sensible, so, I live in a shoebox condominium and I own a car, both of which are so expensive in Singapore.
Hence, when things took a turn for the worse like what happened during the COVID-19 pandemic, I worried as I also wished to provide my parents with greater financial support.
Don't be like AK.
Be sensible, very sensible.
Anyway, two and a half years later, how have things changed?
Things have changed a lot.
I have made changes to my investment portfolio in the last two and a half years.
The aim was to have a more resilient investment portfolio.
Passive income received from my investment portfolio has grown significantly, year on year.
Inflation has shot up and it has remained elevated.
Interest rates have increased rapidly as central banks try to tame inflation.
Cost of living crisis has become a trending topic for some time now.
However, this development is good for the financially prudent people who have been living well below their means.
Inflation affects them too but not by very much as they are used to keeping their needs simple and their wants few.
Higher interest rate is good for them too as they have ample savings in the form of a meaningful emergency fund and also a float.
Interest income is not a negligible sum anymore.
I see my interest income increasing many folds.
In fact, the percentage increase is very much higher when compared to the increase in dividends and distributions received from my investment portfolio, year on year.
So, is AK worried no more?
I shared in a recent blog that we could see a recession this year and with inflation staying high, we could see stagflation.
So, people like AK might be quite comfortable now but don't be complacent.
Give ourselves a little treat from time to time but don't overdo the "revenge spending."
Remember, swans are not always white in color.
It is safer to stay worried!
Wishing all readers good health and abundant wealth in an energetic Year of the Rabbit!
The fact that Volare Group is going to pay 46.5c per unit in today's high interest rate environment for Sabana REIT supports the argument that ESR was really trying get Sabana REIT for a song back in 2020.
Shame on ESR.
Shame on all the people who said it was a good deal and that Sabana REIT's minority shareholders should accept the scheme.
Yes, that's what they called it.
A scheme.
So scheming.
This offer by Volare Group is an affirmation of Sabana REIT's attractiveness as an investment for income even in today's environment.
Most of my investment in Sabana REIT, around 80%, was made at 35c a unit with the balance made up of a small legacy position and also around 15% added more recently.
So, if the REIT should be 100% taken over at an offer price of 46.5c a unit, I suppose it would not be a bad outcome for me.
To be quite honest, however, I wouldn't be celebrating.
It would most likely be a bitter sweet moment as it would remind me of Saizen REIT, Croesus Retail Trust, Accordia Golf Trust and Religare Health Trust.
All of them were pretty good investments for income with my entry prices but I was forced to take the capital gains as they were all delisted at one point or another.
I am still keen on keeping Sabana REIT as an investment for income.
I don't want to have to look for replacement investments for income.
After having spent too much time in 2022 reallocating resources, I am looking forward to being lazier in 2023.
The auction results for this month's 1 year T-bill will be announced on 26 January.
Why did I apply for the 1 year T-bill?
I didn't plan to do it but I had to meet my banker at the bank to collect Chinese New Year notes.
It is the usual once a year visit to the bank for me.
Then, I thought I might as well apply for the 1 year T-bill with my CPF-OA money.
I mean I was already at the bank.
Not having to join a long queue at the bank also helped in making the decision to make the application in person easier for me.
As it is costlier and still more troublesome to use CPF-OA money to apply for T-bills, a 1 year T-bill is also more attractive than a 6 months T-bill, everything else being equal, I feel.
I will very likely lose an additional 2 months of CPF-OA interest income but as long as this 1 year T-bill cut-off yield is not too low, I will get some extra pocket money.
Yes, I know, the money can only be in my pocket almost 4 years from now when I turn 55.
This is a reason for accounting for my CPF interest income separately and not lumping it together with my yearly passive income updates.
The interest earned isn't money I can utilize right away.
It isn't near money.
Still, nice to have, I guess.
Moving money from the CPF-OA into T-bills doesn't do anything to my investment portfolio in terms of the bonds to equities ratio, of course.
It just means that my CPF account which I consider part of my bond holdings will get a slight boost.
How much might this boost be?
Well, let us assume I moved $200,000 and the 1 year T-bill cut-off yield was 4% p.a.
Doing a back of the envelope calculation, 1 year CPF-OA interest income would have been $5,000.
4% p.a. 1 year T-bill would yield $8,000.
So, might be grossing $3,000 more.
However, as I probably would not get any interest income from the CPF-OA for an additional 2 months, I would lose another $833 in CPF-OA interest income.
So, the net gain might be closer to $2,166.
For a whole year and with a relatively large sum of $200,000, I don't think the gain is a big deal.
Of course, if we were to move a sum twice or thrice as much, in absolute dollar terms, it might be more interesting.
If I did not have the kind of money I have in my CPF-OA and if I had to join a long queue at the bank, I don't think I would have bothered to make the application.
I know some people are pretty sensitive about this topic.
I hope I did not offend anyone by saying this.
Just me talking to myself, of course.
Anyway, will wait for the auction results now.
Hopefully, my application is fully filled or else the cost would be even higher.
We are not risking a loss of 0.05% p.a. interest but 2.5% p.a. when we use our CPF-OA money.
So, going for competitive bidding makes better sense.
This is in case the unthinkable happens.
The unthinkable?
Imagine a large number of people placed their bids for a 2% p.a. yield and imagine if the cut-off yield was 2.01% p.a.
That would be a most stunning OMG moment!
Just thinking of the possibility is giving me an anxiety attack!
Don't play, play!
Having said this, I put in what I felt was a sensible bid and did not put in an extremely low bid.
I know some people are still waiting for me to say something else.
It feels like I have been publishing many of such blogs in recent months.
It means that I have not been as lazy as I would have liked to be as an investor.
Chinese drama lead would say "my life is so bitter" while adding a little cry at the end.
AK so drama.
Anyway, what has changed?
The current list of largest investments in my portfolio looks like this:
$500,000 or more: CPF OCBC
For a very long time, it was just the CPF.
Long time regular readers of my blog know that I think it is important to have risk free and volatility free CPF in our portfolio.
We would truly appreciate this in severe bear markets.
Now, my CPF is lonely no more as OCBC has joined the highest bracket in my portfolio's largest investments club.
I added to my investment in OCBC during the COVID 19 pandemic and then again in 1H 2022 with some of the funds raised from reducing my exposure to Centurion Corp.
Then, in 2H 2022, I increased my enlarged investment in OCBC again by some 11% as I used the funds raised from reducing exposure to ComfortDelgro to add to my positions in both OCBC and UOB.
With a higher stock price today, the market value of my investment in OCBC breezes past the $500,000 mark.
$350,000 to $499,999: 1. IREIT Global 2. AIMS APAC REIT.
In my last passive income update, I revealed that IREIT Global has become my largest investment in the REIT universe.
AA REIT has been dethroned.
I won't rehash.
I will instead include a hyperlink to the blog on my full year 2022 passive income if you want to find out more.
All references at the end of this blog.
$200,000 to $349,999: 1. DBS 2. UOB 3. Wilmar International
In this category, DBS and UOB are both very close to the top.
I only started investing in UOB during the COVID 19 pandemic induced bear market.
I accumulated a relatively large number of shares in UOB within a very short span of time then.
In 2H 2022, I further increased my investment in UOB by some 19% using some of the funds raised from reducing my investment in ComfortDelgro.
Since then, the share price of UOB has increased some 15% which is both a good and a bad thing.
Why a bad thing?
I wasn't quite done with my plan to buy more of UOB's common stock.
What to do?
It is what it is.
Without any further effort on my part, it is possible that my investments in DBS and UOB could make their way to the next highest bracket in future.
I say this as the banks should see their intrinsic value increasing over time as they retain more earnings.
Of course, as an investor for income, that isn't my primary motivation but it is icing on the cake.
Wilmar International is still very undervalued if we look at the sum of its parts.
Mr. Market seems to be constantly mispricing Wilmar International.
However, I am quite happy to be paid while I wait for more value to be unlocked.
Still, it is anyone's guess how long it will take for more value to be unlocked.
Patience.
$100,000 to $199,999: 1. ComfortDelgro 2. Sabana REIT 3. Capitaland China Trust 4. Frasers Logistics Trust 5. SSBs and T-bills
ComfortDelgro has joined this bracket after I trimmed my position.
Of course, ComfortDelgro's weaker stock price does not help its position in the portfolio.
Finally, I wondered whether to include bonds in this update but since I have already included my CPF, I decided to do it.
In 4Q 2022, I moved more than $100,000 into Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) and treasury bills (T-bills.)
The aim is to continue growing the fixed income component in my portfolio.
Of course, this is something which I have been doing in the last few years on my own steam through voluntary contributions to my CPF account.
Feels a little crowded now in this lowest bracket.
Things I have done to my investment portfolio in 2022 have delivered positive results on the passive income front.
They have also probably helped to protect the value of my investment portfolio.
I am hopeful that these largest investments will continue to bring home the bacon in 2023.
The upcoming T-bill auction should see cut off yield at around the same percentage.
Plan is still to keep adding as I continue to slowly grow the investment grade bond component of my portfolio.
This isn't something new as I was doing the same by making voluntary contributions to my CPF account annually to hit the annual contribution limit.
Of course, long time regular readers know I think of the CPF as a risk free and volatility free investment grade sovereign bond.
I know that some people are saying that inflation has peaked and interest rate has peaked or will peak soon.
So, they say we should be deploying funds into riskier assets like tech stocks.
Some might think that I am being overly conservative but I don't think so.
Remember if interest rates are cut later this year or next by the Fed, it probably means that the USA is in a recession and probably a pretty bad one.
It is not a bad idea to err on the side of caution.
Having some meaningful insurance is not a bad idea.
We can never be too sure of anything.
Also, I am really more exposed to equities than I am to bonds.
Compared to the more commonly recommended 60% equities and 40% bonds investment portfolio recommended to people with a profile like mine, my portfolio is way lighter in bonds.
So, in an event that interest rate does get a cut or a few in the second half of the year and next year like some people are expecting, my investment portfolio could benefit too if that is the way Mr. Market swings.
Oh, what profile was I talking about?
I am a retiree and do not have an earned income.
I depend fully on passive income for a living.
If my investments should go belly up, I am pretty much in trouble.
I am now also in my 50s and it would probably be harder for me to get a job, let alone a job that pays reasonably well, if I must rejoin the workforce.
OMG!
PTSD moment there.
Cold sweat.
If I were younger and still enjoyed an earned income but married and had a mortgage and children, I might want to be equally conservative.
Bad AK! Bad AK!
Seriously.
Something for some people to think about, maybe.
Enough horror stories.
Next T-bill auction on 18 Jan 23.
Anyway, I am just talking to myself here about what I think works for the real me (and the imaginary me.)
If you are still eavesdropping, remember you are listening in on the ramblings of a mental patient.
So, you do you.
Maybe you want to listen to my British lady friend on YouTube regarding having $1 million CPF too.
This blog was inspired by a conversation I had with my father recently.
He asked if I had enough money because I have been quite ill in recent weeks and he wondered if I lacked money to see a doctor.
As we grow older, we will find ourselves falling sick to the strangest things sometimes.
Anyway, I had a very bad eczema flare up which affected my arms, legs and torso.
I thought I was very careful with the steroid cream but I still suffered withdrawal symptoms.
Anyway, with the weather warming now, I hope to get better soon.
Anyway, I told my dad how much money I am making although I am unemployed.
OK, more accurately, I am economically inactive since I am not seeking employment.
To the old man, unemployed and economically inactive mean the same thing.
AK is jobless.
Anyway, he found it unbelievable his jobless son had the kind of income that he said he had.
That conversation plus my recent blog on having too little passive income got me wondering how much money have I made from dividends and distributions alone thus far as an investor for income?
Of course, it won't be the first time I am doing this.
Back in January 2020, I had a blog which revealed I made $1.5 million in 10 plus years of investing for income.
That $1.5 million did not take into account any capital gains or losses.
That also did not include outsized distributions from Saizen REIT, Croesus Retail Trust and Religare Health Trust which, to be fair, were more like capital gains which I account for separately.
For sure, that $1.5 million did not include interest income received from my CPF account.
That $1.5 million made from investing for income for about 10 years was just from adding all the regular dividends and distributions.
Now, it has been 3 years since that blog was published.
What is the updated number?
Without including the outsized distribution from Accordia Golf Trust in 2020, how much passive income have I received as an investor for income in a bit more than 13 years?
About $2 million.
So, in the last 3 years, despite the COVID-19 pandemic and despite not having an earned income, my passive income has held up quite well, by my own assessment.
I remind myself that my investment portfolio has morphed from being very concentrated in higher yielding REITs to being less so.
This has resulted in a lower average dividend and distribution yield at the portfolio level.
Without an earned income, I consume most of my passive income and I did buy a car a few years ago.
I must also remember that a not insignificant part of my passive income is funneled into my CPF account annually, hitting the annual contribution limit without mandatory contributions.
I won't go into that as this blog is about passive income received as an investor for income.
It isn't a blog about my net worth, which long time readers of ASSI know isn't something I have ever talked to myself about.
It is unlikely I would ever talk about my net worth because ASSI is about generating passive income and achieving financial freedom.
Talking about my net worth is not going to inspire anyone to achieve financial freedom.
Staying invested in bona fide income generating assets has, in a bit more than 13 years, generated $2 million for me in passive income.
Want to achieve financial freedom but still doubtful you can do it?
Unless we are severely disadvantaged, most of us can achieve financial freedom in Singapore.
If AK can do it, so can you!
(As usual, I have included links to references which might be enlightening at the end of the blog.)
It is probably no secret that AK is pretty reclusive.
The COVID 19 pandemic has made AK even more reclusive, if that is at all possible.
Why so reclusive?
Well, I think a lot and some people would say I think too much.
Better be safe and not sorry, especially when I have aged parents whom I visit weekly.
Almost without exception, I would have a sleepless night after any form of social engagement as my monkey brain would replay the event again and again.
In the worst case scenario, I would get an anxiety attack.
Some people think that I was kidding when I revealed I was a patient at the little house on Buangkok Green.
I wasn't.
To be fair, it was probably just a contributory factor that led to my diagnosis and treatment at IMH.
As my blog got more popular and the blogger got more attention, there was a growing feeling of anxiety.
So, it was a good thing that Facebook did what it did to me and I took that as an opportunity to scale back on social media engagement.
Blogging is a hobby and hobbies should be something we do because they make us happy and not because they make us anxious.
I cannot remember who the people were by now but there were those who were pretty unkind.
They told me that if I could not take the heat, I should not be in the kitchen.
Then, there were those who were kinder.
They told me I should learn how to break and blog or I could suffer a burnout.
Well, both groups of people were right although their messages were "same same but different."
I am glad that I have reduced my social activity as a blogger in recent years and have confined myself to my blog.
The only way most people can get in touch with me now is through the blog's comments section and only if they have a Google account.
I know it is very restrictive but it is good for my mental health.
Yes, it is not just because AK is lazy which is what I always say.
This way, I rarely have to deal with trolls and bots.
I know I am missing out on new business opportunities too as an "influencer" but it doesn't really matter to me.
I am glad that I did what I did as I enjoyed blogging from the moment I started in 2009 and I want to continue blogging because I enjoy it.
Of course, I know that "a big tree catches the wind."
Talking to myself, if I have managed to inspire readers to achieve financial freedom, I am glad.
That is what I always say and that is primarily what I want my blog to do.
To inspire.
Although I do not like it, I cannot deny that my blog attracts some attention of the unwanted variety.
I try not to be like the proverbial blind men who each touched a different part of an elephant and gave their conclusions without the full picture.
Although I am uncomfortable with revealing or explaining everything about me, I make an effort to share enough information for readers to make their own informed decisions on stuff that I do blog about.
It isn't unreasonable because the really interested readers would read my past blogs for background information especially when I make an effort to provide hyperlinks to related blogs.
Despite keeping a low profile, I was made aware of two statements recently.
1. My passive income is growing too slowly.
2. I have too much money in my CPF OA.
I have watered down the statements which were somewhat offensive in their original forms.
Although I initially thought there was no need for me to respond to these statements, a good friend said I should.
To be honest, I don't want to do it but after some thinking, I think I should.
Why?
It is only fair to readers especially those who have not been following my blog for very long to have me throw light on the matter.
After all, I cannot assume that my blog only has regular readers who have been following my blog for many years.
They would probably have an idea how I would respond to both statements.
So, now you know the reason why I am crafting this blog.
I am going to get this over with chop chop.
My passive income has not been growing very much in the last few years as I retired a few months before I turned 45 years old and that was about 6 and a half years ago.
Since then, I have lacked an earned income.
So, although I could invest a big portion of my earned income and all my passive income when I was gainfully employed, I could not do so in recent years.
If we go back 11 years, my passive income was about $100K a year back then but it was $200K for the whole of last year.
Also, 11 years ago, my investment portfolio was very heavy in REITs and enjoyed very high yields which isn't the case today.
As for the money in my CPF OA, I do not think getting a risk free 2.5% per annum return from a volatility free instrument per se was a bad thing.
It looks like it is a bad thing now because interest rate has risen so much in less than one year.
So, what seemed like a good idea in the past does not seem like a good idea now.
Of course, there were people who did not think that having a lot of money in the CPF OA was a good idea in the past as well.
The proverbial blind men each touching a different part of an elephant comes to mind.
As a retiree who lacks an earned income and at my age, it is not a good idea to be too adventurous when it comes to investing my money.
I am aware that I could have invested some of my CPF OA money in equities for higher returns but do I need to do it?
I don't think so as it is probably quite obvious that I already have a substantial exposure to equities.
I also do not want to do it because I want to grow my portfolio's exposure to fixed income which would reduce volatility in the portfolio.
Also, most investors who used their CPF money to invest would have been better off leaving their money in their CPF OA and it could have been the same for me too.
I am not infallible.
For a person in my position, why trade something that is risk free and volatility free for something that is not for a possibly higher return?
"It’s insane to risk what you have for something you don’t need."Warren Buffett
What to do?
What I am considering doing is to use CPF OA money to get T-bills.
However, as I am mental and want to avoid visiting the bank if I can help it, I am waiting for online application to be allowed.
However, if T-bills should see yield climb much higher before then, I might make a trip to the bank, no matter how reluctant I am to do it.
Right now, not getting $700K of CPF OA money into a 6 months T-bill means losing some $10K in annual passive income.
What I am going to say next might be taken the wrong way by some people but, to be quite blunt, to me, it isn't a big deal.
I have not put in much effort in crafting this blog.
I just typed whatever came to mind.
So, I apologize if it is not as diplomatic as it should be.
I just want to get it out of the way so that I can enjoy Genshin Impact's special program which is starting soon.
Don't want to have this at the back of my mind.
If you play Genshin Impact too, don't forget the free Primogems from the special program.