Tea with EY: Money talk, money laugh!

One of the most rewarding things about blogging is getting to "meet" people online. Reading comments from readers and replying to them is the most rewarding bit about blogging, I feel.

Don't just take my photo. Talk to me! ;p

Blogging is a form of social media and it is interaction with readers which makes it enriching for me as a blogger, not the paltry income from ads. Do you feel that other bloggers would agree with me? OK, there are XiaXues and Mr. Browns in blogosphere who are more likely to be enriched by income from ads but I wonder how common are they.

In recent weeks, a reader, EY, has been very regular in leaving comments in my blog. A great sense of humour and a sparkling style characterise her writing. Her comments are little gems which never fail to make me smile or chuckle. After my many requests, here is her first and, I hope, not last blog post as a guest contributor in ASSI.

In case you are wondering, no, I did not conduct an interview. The entire episode was conjured up by EY. I hope you enjoy reading the following as much as I did:

Money talk, money laugh!

All things are not created equal. Money too. In our complicated world, discrimination has to have its way. So money can’t just be money. It has to be good or bad, smart or dumb, clean or filthy, quick or slow, or simply put, it has to be juxtaposed. Money, in all its forms, has the largest contingent of believers and is capable of capturing the imagination and the souls of the young and the old, the hot-blooded and the bold. So for this first guest post (and maybe the only one!), AK and I should have a no-holds-barred money talk. I’ll be brutally honest and unabashedly irreverent, just so you would walk away with the last laugh.

AK: What are your views on money?

EY: Money is the loot of all beavers. Everyone would like to have some stashed away and all of us would love to have them grow on trees!

AK: Is there a difference between good money and bad money? How to tell them apart?

EY: Of course, there is.  Good money is the tragic hero that dies young. For no fault of his, he is often thrown after bad money and always dies an untimely death. While both are in the gaseous state after evaporation, good money tends to have a few more water droplets crystalising from the tears of the heart that has gone chilled.

AK: Which kind of money is most sought after?

EY: This is a difficult question. It depends on individual preferences, I guess. But there is no dispute that hot money goes places, for sexy is hard to resist.  It loves attention and has earned the celebrity status. Just be mindful it always sings to the tune that nothing lasts forever. On the other hand, money with hygiene issues is frowned upon by most.  But it is adored no less by opportunists looking to indulge in their washing fetish that would make it cleaner than clean. And then, there are many who think that size matters.  Big money beats small money hands down.  But big money is said to belong to the losers for every one claims he has lost it before. Borrowed money is the most learned of them all.  It chooses to work only for the rich to get enrolled into every asset class. Coffee money is the most eloquent and it speaks the hardest truth. But it has the bad habit of tooting the loudest under the table too. Quick money has its appeal if it is not always in a rush. It promises many spins like the roller coaster and never fails to take you back to where you begin. Then there is also this one kind that plays hard-to-get. It has no charms whatsoever and is only good at making you sweat and toil. It used to be faithful but now, it is only honest, at best. But if you ask me, I find prize money most attractive. I love its effortless beauty and the big bow that steals the show!

AK: So, what would you do to accumulate more money?

EY:  Buy more clothes with deep pockets and more shoes to walk the talk.

AK: What are your parting words to the readers of ASSI?

EY:  Thanks a bunch for the air time and I’ll like to share my favourite quote. Live every moment, laugh every day, and love beyond words. And in this context, it can be interpreted as live every moment for money to find you anytime, laugh every day to the bank, and love beyond words because money is on the other end!

Tea with AK71: 12-12-12.

Today is supposed to be an auspicious day according to the Chinese Feng Shui masters. Well, my day was filled with little hiccups and bumps. So, it was only so-so for me.

I was going through photos in my IXUS and watching the news on my old 14" CRT when this flashed on the screen. 

Perhaps, the day is only auspicious for weddings and car rental companies.

Many couples have picked the date 12-12-12 to tie the knot... such a special date will not come by for another century.

Based on statistics on the Registry of Marriages website, the number of couples that chose to get hitched (on 12-12-12)  is about four times more than the usual number seen in a weekend in December.

The auspicious date is also driving up demand for car rentals. (Channel NewsAsia, 9 Dec 12).

OK, finding out that my Mazda 2 is finally managing 15km/litre after a bit more than 2 years made me smile. Yeah!

Related post:
My new car's fuel consumption.

Be a real estate owner the easy way (2).

Two years ago, I blogged about someone telling me that there was a way to own properties with very little money or no money at all. Two months ago, I updated in the comments section of that blog post that he lost quite a bit of money doing it.

Today, I came across a blog post by Gerald Tay in Propwise.sg on "No Money Down" properties. His family is in property development and he shares his views on the claims by "gurus" that people could own properties with no money down at all.

I am recommending the blog post as a must read although it is a little bit of a teaser because there is a Part 2 yet to be published.

"Would you like to discover “Secrets of how to own properties with little or no money down?” or “How to own three properties with just one property?” The “gurus” will have you cough out thousands of dollars just to attend workshops or seminars that teach questionable investment techniques, claim you can own properties with no money down, pepper you with lots of crappy motivational talk, then sell you properties at the end of the workshop saying you must take action now and can soon be millionaires upon graduation."

Read blog post by Gerald Tay in Propwise.sg:
http://www.propwise.sg/no-money-down-properties-legit-scheme-or-scam/

Money is hard to make. We must make it hard to lose.

Related post:
Be a real estate owner the easy way.

Duck 2 Tee 2 T-shirts for US$6.00 each.

I have found another value for money deal. :)

6DollarShirts.com sells high quality, silk screened T-shirts to happy customers all around the globe.

We offer hundreds of pop culture and topical designs on dozens of colors for both guys and girls. We keep overhead and prices low as consumers are looking to stretch their dollar farther.

Despite the global economic downturn, our sales have actually increased. Why? Because US$6.00 for a silk screened t-shirt is very attractive; 10 shirts for US$50.00 is irresistible!




Duck 2 Tee 2.
US$6 for a 100% cotton tee. Designed and printed in the USA.

See:
All Printed Tees $6
Yes, for real. Get 10 Tees for only US$50.00!

No longer dependent on monthly wages. (To be a happy "peasant".)

When I was in primary school, I enjoyed reading Aesop's Fables. 

One I remember is the story of the grasshopper and the ant.





The fable concerns a grasshopper that has spent the warm months singing while the ant (or ants in some versions) worked to store up food for winter. 

When that season arrives, the grasshopper finds itself dying of hunger and begs the ant for food. 

To its reply when asked that it had sung all summer, it is rebuked for its idleness and advised to dance during the winter.

The story has been used to teach the virtues of hard work and the perils of improvidence. 

Some versions state a moral at the end along the lines of "Idleness brings want", "To work today is to eat tomorrow", "Beware of winter before it comes". (Source: Wikipedia).





It is easy to be lulled into a false sense of security when everything seems to be going our way. 

We must always save and make contingency plans for when things go wrong. 

When things go wrong, they often do without much warning.

This is one way I like to approach the topic of savings and investment whenever I get to talk to anyone about the importance of financial planning. 





Unfortunately, there will always be some who say that life is short and they should enjoy it while they can. 

If things go really bad and they have no options left, they could always end their lives. 

Really, I have been given such a response before not by one person but by a few people.





In a recent study, it was found that suicide rates often spike during economic downturns, and recent studies of rates in Greece, Spain and Italy have found similar trends.

Every rise of 1% in unemployment was accompanied by an increase in suicide rate of roughly 1%. (Source: The Business Times, Nov 6, 2012.)

We should all be ants instead of grasshoppers. 

Work and plan for the future.





Related to this, I just found out that I have been labelled a person with a "peasant mentality" when it comes to wealth building. 

A peasant "is a member of a traditional class of farmers, either laborers or owners of small farms... The majority of the people in the Middle Ages were peasants." (Source: Wikipedia)

Unfortunately, I was not born with a silver spoon in my mouth. 

Well, I could have had a silver spoon in my mouth but two generations ago, that spoon went to another branch of the tree. 

So, I am definitely of the masses and I can only do what I can with my limited resources to move upwards.





For me, to move from a time when I was dependent on my monthly wages to meet my living expenses to now when I no longer have to is an achievement. 

It could be a modest one in the eyes of "noblemen" and "aristocrats" but I will be happy enough to own a fully paid apartment, a fully paid car and to be free of all debt.

So, to the people who called me a "peasant", you are probably right in your description. 





I am a "peasant" and will probably remain a peasant but I hope to be a happy "peasant".

Related post:
Wage slaves should be fearful.

Don't be a yield pig, be a hardy pig.

We have heard or read in personal finance matters that we should not be a yield pig. Indeed, promises of very high yields in instruments which we could hardly understand should be looked at with great suspicion.

This does not, however, mean that we simply brush off high yields. After all, certain S-REITs were offering very high yields at the depths of the GFC a few years ago. People who sniffed at them in disdain back then could be sniffing for a different reason now.

We have to be courageous and careful at the same time. What my driving instructor told me years ago just came back to me. In driving, we have to be 胆大心细. So, if we wished to change lanes and we were only 胆大, we might end up in an accident. If we were only 心细, we might never make the change!

We must have the courage to be a contrarian when everyone flees a genuinely rewarding proposition and the courage to say "no" to something which seems too good to be true in the absence of a logical explanation.

This blog post is a reminder to myself as well. Money is hard to make and we have to make it hard to lose.

When I was in the USA, I saw this poster and it has nothing to do with personal finance. The only thing it has in common with this blog post is the word "pig"!

“Be a hardy pig, an income-generating vegetable garden, or an essential and productive tool.”

Anyway, it intrigued me enough to go online and read more about Oxfam. What they are doing is very meaningful and I would encourage you to read more about Oxfam and why "be a pig" at: Oxfam: Working together to end poverty and injustice!

In case you are wondering, no, this is not a paid advertisement. :)

More photos of my U.S. trip here:
Travel Photos and Videos.

REITs: When to buy?

This is taken from the weekend edition of The Business Times:

Simon Rudolph, Franklin Templeton Investments' portfolio manager for global equities: "We invest in REITs when we can buy them with good yields, but most importantly, at a good discount to the NAV. Real estate has to be about total return and not just income."

"When you buy something at 30% premium to NAV, unless there is a reason it is trading at a premium, it can still go back to par."

This is something that I can identify with and it is something I have always talked about in my blog as something to look out for when deciding which S-REITs to invest in.

Off the top of my head, my investments in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and First REIT appreciated some 40 to 75% in value in the last 3 years. This is on top of annual distribution yields of 13 to 17%. Readers who have walked the walk with me the whole time could possibly verify this.

So, if we believe Simon Rudolph, does it mean that now is not the time to buy into S-REITs? Well, not the best time perhaps but, for some investors, being able to secure an annual yield of >7% is considered very attractive in the current low interest rate environment. Even a 6% yield could be considered attractive.

We could possibly see yield compression to continue in S-REITs as money continues to search for places where it is treated better. Another 10% appreciation in the unit prices of S-REITs cannot be ruled out in 2013.

A few days ago, a reader made a comment regarding Saizen REIT which is still trading at a significant discount to its NAV. This is a REIT that was unloved and ignored for a long time. It was still the case when I decided that it was terribly undervalued and bought into it. What about now?

Well, being a REIT with properties in Japan and its income in JPY, the bug bear is forex risk. The JPY has been on a decline. It has weakened against the S$ by about 10% in the last 12 months. So, this will affect its NAV and distributable income in S$ terms.

Even so, we could be looking at a NAV of 27c/unit and a DPU of 1.134c a year. A unit price of 17c means a 37% discount to NAV and a distribution yield of some 6.67%.

If we were to factor in a worst case scenario of a further 10+% decline in JPY against the S$, we could expect a NAV of 24c/unit and a DPU of 1.01c a year or a 29% discount to NAV and a distribution yield of 5.94%.

It is perhaps worth remembering that Saizen REIT owns freehold properties and that its bank loans are amortising in nature. The relatively lower distribution yield could be acceptable, therefore.

REITs, when to buy? Obviously, there were better times and there could be better times again but is leaving most or all our money in savings accounts which pay almost nothing in interest a better choice when inflation of 4% per annum is set to be the norm? You decide.

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: 2H FY2012.
2. REITs: Simply explained?
3. Inflation is not going away.

Tea with AK71: Manbags!

In the weekend edition of The Business Times, guess what is on the front page? It is the "Rise of the manbags and the $2,500 shoes!"

It reports that men are splurging on themselves and they "buy the bigger (Celine) bags and use them as document bags, gym bags..." Wow! I am still using whatever free bags I get.

See: My briefcase.

Prada's men's shoes range from $800 to $1,500. Not atas enough? Why not customise your shoes from a minimum of $2,500 a pair?

Yikes! My shoes usually cost $30 to $60 a pair and I wear them till the soles are worn out which usually takes 2 years or so.

The latest Bain & Company study found that men now account for 41% of the global luxury goods market, up from 35% in 1995, and in a market that is almost 3 times bigger!

I learn something new this weekend...


UP TO 70% DISCOUNT!

Related posts:
Parting with an old friend.

Wilmar: Smart money outflow is reversing?

Anyone investing in Wilmar for the longer term would be encouraged by the counter's weekly chart.

Even as share price continues its basing process which has been going on for months, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows that the outflow of funds has ceased. With bearish pressure dissipated, any positive news could send share price up quite abruptly.

Bollinger bands are also constricting to a point where we could expect a violent movement in share price. So, which way? Up or down? Based on the CMF, dare I hazard a guess? I would guess "up".

This could simply be a rebound if it should happen, a rebound which could see price capped by the declining 50w MA which is currently at $4.00. Immediate resistance is at $3.20.

Related post:
Wilmar: A rebound or something more?

SoundGlobal: Breaking out of resistance.

I last added to my long position at 49.5c on 5 November 2012. For the reasons why I added to my long position then, please see my last blog post on the company.

Today, Sound Global's share price broke resistance and formed a long white candle on relatively high volume. A long upper wick was formed towards the end of the session. This tempers the bullish picture somewhat.

On the daily chart, the positive divergence which was spotted earlier is playing out. So, we had an early indication of a possible uplift in share price. Therefore, it should not surprise us that resistance was finally taken out although it was anyone's guess when it was to happen.

On the weekly chart, the MACD, a pure price momentum oscillator, looks to be on the verge of a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. A rebound in price could meet with resistance presented by the flat 50w MA at 56c and the declining 100w MA which is currently at 60c.

Now, whether the counter's share price is able to finally form a higher high is anyone's guess although the higher lows formed in the MACDs of both the daily and weekly charts are very encouraging.

Fundamentally, SoundGlobal's valuation is undemanding. Technically, it does seem as if its share price has bottomed although we cannot say that for sure until a higher high in price is seen.

Related post:
SoundGlobal: Smart money is buying.

China Minzhong: Gap down black candle day.

China Minzhong's share price gapped down today and formed a long black candle on the back of very high volume.

Apparently, "one party sold 57.23 million shares at S$0.80 each.

"A trader said one of China Minzhong's shareholders had sold its entire stake in the company through a private placement.

"According to Thomson Reuters data, Olympus Capital Holdings Asia, is the company's third largest shareholder, with 57.23 million shares or a 10.3 per cent stake.

Franklin Templeton Investments Corp is the second largest shareholder with a 12.2 per cent stake, or 68.13 million shares." (Source: REUTERS, 6 Dec 12.)

I do not know why the investor decided to sell especially when the fundamentals of the company have been improving. However, if there is no material deterioration in fundamentals, this correction is an opportunity to accumulate shares of the company cheaper.

Technically, the negative divergence between the share price and MACD is playing out. So, it is not as if we didn't get some kind of warning. However, the intensity of the decline has been stunning.

I decided to draw a Fibo Fan and it is interesting to see how nicely the 38.2% Fibo line approximates the rising 100d MA. 38.2% is a golden ratio but with such a high volume sell down today, we could see persistent weakness tomorrow. If immediate support should be compromised, then, we could see a test of the next two golden ratios of 50% and 61.8% for support.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Accumulate on weakness.

Inflation is not going away.

Between inflation and deflation, governments would rather have the former. However, if inflation remains elevated over a prolonged period, then, we will have problems aplenty.

I am not an economist and this is not going to be an economic essay. This blog post is inspired by a report by Bloomberg which says how elevated inflation in Singapore is persistent and unlikely to go away. The repercussions are real and grim.

As the negative effects of inflation would affect middle to lower income earners more than the rich, it is even more urgent that we do something to at least protect our wealth.

Sections from Bloomberg's report:

Singapore is grappling with the elevated inflation that comes with years of economic growth and population expansion on an island smaller than New York City, with rising demand fueling record property and car prices.

Singapore has the highest inflation rate among 27 economies with GDP of at least $100 billion and classified by the International Monetary Fund as advanced. The island’s inflation has exceeded 4% every month but one since November 2010, more than double the 1.9% average in the past two decades.

Singapore, which uses the exchange rate to manage inflation, unexpectedly refrained from slowing the pace of its currency’s appreciation in its October policy review even after the economy contracted last quarter. The Singapore dollar’s 6.4% gain this year has done little to damp inflation stemming from domestic price pressures.
Higher car and property prices and the measures to tighten rules on hiring overseas workers are driving up the “overall cost structure” of the economy, spurring inflationary pressures that are a result of “self-imposed” policies, according to DBS Group Holdings.

I have shared my thoughts on wealth creation here on a regular basis. We want to grow our wealth but for many, taking the step to at least protect their wealth from being eroded by inflation would be significant and, in certain cases, it would be quite an achievement. All of us have different circumstances, after all.

It is more important now than ever before that we make sacrifices and put in place plans to secure our financial future in a world that is increasingly uncertain. People who still think Singapore will continue to do well simply because we are in Asia, the future global growth engine, should hedge their positions. Things could get worse.

Read Bloomberg's report: here.

Related posts:
Go to the right side bar and look for the box with the label "Wealth Creation: Beating inflation" for my earlier blog posts on the topic.

Don't build traps for ourselves. (FKA "The worst type of readers.")

We might have all heard of the saying that "no publicity is bad publicity". 

Well, it is generally for people in the entertainment industry since anyone who wants more people to recognise them and be aware of them would "benefit" from all forms of publicity.

After photos of his sexual escapades were made public, Edison Chen was able to land a deal with Carl's Jr. to be their spokesperson for the launch of their "Thick Burger" in Asia! 

What a boon from his indiscretion!





Well, in the last two days, off the top of my head, traffic to my blog increased by some 25 to 30% because of an edited version of an old blog post of mine appearing in Yahoo! Finance Singapore.

I am still trying to fathom if this is good news or bad.

Follow the link to Yahoo! Finance Singapore and you will see tens of comments and almost all are negative. 

Many are downright rude while most are dismissive. 

So, this is bad, isn't it?

I cannot draw the conclusion that it is bad because none of these negative comments appeared in my blog. 

So, the writers of the negative comments probably did not visit my blog at all. 




They made assumptions and passed judgement based on one edited version of an old blog post of mine.


Then, what about all the traffic that Yahoo! Finance Singapore sent me? 

These are probably people who are more open minded and who bothered to find out more about me and my ideas. 

So, this should be good, right? 

The willingness to find out more could be the first step to a new journey.

After blogging for almost three years, I have encountered many types of people. 

There are many who are appreciative of what I have done although I am not sure that I am all deserving. 

There are also rude ones who called me names and even questioned my motives. 

I am very sure I don't deserve such treatment. 





However, these are not the worst. 

Not the worst?

I believe the worst are those who pretty much dismiss what I have shared to be fairy tales.

The worst are those who think that I am a prolific fiction writer and that my claims that people can escape wage slavery are spurious.

Actually, for those sceptical readers of the edited version of that particular blog post of mine in Yahoo! Finance Singapore, if they would only make the effort to visit my blog and read the unedited version including the comments left by some readers, they would be able to appreciate how it is all possible.





A life with greater financial security for any regular wage earner who is not disadvantaged in any way is possible.

Often, the traps we find ourselves in are built by ourselves.










 

Related posts:
1. Article published in Yahoo! Finance Singapore.
2. Do you want to be richer?
3. Wage slaves should be fearful.
4. ASSI is an affiliate of BetterWorldBooks.

Buy gold and silver as insurance.

Anyone who is regularly reading news on personal finance would have come across articles on why gold and silver prices are set to rise even higher. Marc Faber and Jim Rogers, both people I respect, are just two prominent figures who have put forth compelling reasons to own some gold and silver.

Personally, when I started this blog, I also wrote about the real value of gold and why silver would be a better buy than gold after I researched the gold:silver ratio. I started a separate blog on the precious metals later on because I want to concentrate on blogging about investing for income here at ASSI.

We just have to do a quick check online to see how much the prices of gold and silver have appreciated since I started blogging three years ago to see how well anyone who invested in these metals have done in that time.

My current attitude towards buying physical gold and silver is like my attitude towards paying for insurance. To own physical gold and silver is an insurance against the inherent flaws of fiat currencies. Just like how we put aside a certain sum of money annually to pay for our insurance policies, I believe that setting aside 5% of my annual income for the purchase of gold and silver as insurance is not too much.

So, am I saying that I do not buy gold and silver now with the hope of making more money in S$ terms? Well, if we think of gold and silver as a form of money, then, buying gold and silver in the hope of making more money in our home currency is like forex trading. It would make more sense to trade in paper gold and silver then.

Buying physicals would be more suitable for anyone with a crisis mentality.

I am posting this article here in ASSI instead of my blog on the precious metals because the latter's readers are probably conversant with the reasons why we should be in precious metals. I want to reach out to readers here in ASSI who might not have any position in the precious metals yet.

Let me guess. Some of you are probably wondering if it is a good time to buy now. Well, if we believe in the thesis that the precious metals are set to rise much more in price over the next few years and if we are holding them as insurance instead of trading them for short term gain, the question becomes less important.

Technically, there is some near term weakness and if we want to wait to buy lower, a 5% correction in price could see buyers returning. Remember, however, that technical analysis is all about probability, never certainty. It never hurts to hedge.

Related posts:
1. Silver bullion coins.
2. Gold and silver: Important assets to own.
3. Gold or silver?
4. Silver: Some views.
5. Silver: Weekly chart.

Olam: Renounceable Underwritten Bond-Cum-Warrant Rights Issue.

Olam, in response to Muddy Water's claims, said that they "have more than enough capacity to meet ... repayment obligations of S$1.5 billion in the next 12 months, as well as ... likely capex of S$1-1.25 billion in the same period" and that "without raising any further debt (they) can easily meet ... debt repayment obligations and pursue ... planned Capex, in addition to meeting the on-going working capital needs." Then, why are they issung bonds-cum-rights now?

This reminds me of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust's claim a few years ago that they did not have to issue rights and that people who said they had to didn't understand their business. It could also be a coincidence that Sunny Verghese was also the chairman of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust then.

Each 1,000 shares owned will get to subscribe for 313 bonds with a face value of US$1.00 each. The bonds have a 5 year tenor and a coupon rate of 6.75%. This unsecured bond will raise some US$750m for Olam.

Each 1,000 shares owned will also be given 162 free warrants. Strike price of warrants is US$1.291. The warrants expire in 5 years and cannot be exercised in the first 3 years. This will raise US$500m for Olam if all the warrants are eventually exercised.

Full details here:
Olam International announces proposed US$750 M Renounceable Underwritten Bond-Cum-Warrant Rights Issue

Rights issues to strengthen the balance sheet is bad news for shareholders as it dilutes EPS (eventually, in this case). It also admits that the balance sheet was weak in the first instance. What are shareholders to do? It is Hobson's choice.

"Temasek is committed to take 100% of rights not subscribed by existing shareholders." Just like the case with CitySpring Infrastructure Trust, Temasek Holdings could end up enlarging its share of Olam.

　
"The Transaction is available to all its equity shareholders and provides a unique and rewarding opportunity to participate in the long term growth of the Company." This requires a leap of faith and I certainly hope for all shareholders that things improve from here.

Share price could take a hit tomorrow. $1.35 perhaps?

Related post:
Olam: A time bomb?

Article published in Yahoo! Finance Singapore.

Some time ago, I was approached by MoneyMatters.SG for permission to re-publish a few of my older articles. I consented as I feel that if more people could access my writings and benefit from my ideas, it would make me very happy.

Today, I found out that an article was re-published in Yahoo! Finance Singapore on 28 November 2012 under the Special Features section. Although edited, the message is intact and the spirit has been retained.

Link here: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/want-richer-065248352--sector.html

If you feel that this article could be useful to your friends or family, please feel free to share it. If we can help people to better themselves and improve their financial health, we should.

Help people to help themselves. I like this. :)

The original post (unedited):
Do you want to be richer?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4.35% Fixed Rate Notes.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is raising $30m in the debt market from the issue of unsecured 4.35% fixed rate notes in a private placement. This is the second series of such notes to be issued.

The first series of such notes was issued in August 2012 and was 5x oversubscribed. Those notes were at 4.9% fixed rate and mature in 4 years in 2016. That exercise raised $100m.

The second series of notes are to be issued on 5 Dec 2012 and will mature on 5 Dec 2019. The money raised will go to repaying a $28.8m secured bank loan due in Feb 2014.

There are improvements in the second series over the first:

1. The cost of debt is lower at 4.35% compared to 4.9%.

2. The tenor is longer at 7 years compared to 4 years.

These improvements are significant as they suggest that there is a strong demand for debt issued by the REIT. The demand is so strong that lenders are willing to accept a lower yield for a longer tenor. This bodes well for future issues and also lends confidence to investors in the REIT as funding concerns are addressed.

One of the major criticisms of the REIT model was that the long term investments in real estate were accompanied by short loan tenors, usually three years, from lenders in the past which were the CMBS (now exinct) or banks. Longer loan tenors provide stability.

However, the longer tenors of medium term notes attract a higher coupon rate when compared to shorter term bank loans. The higher coupon rate also reflects higher risk to lenders from the notes being unsecured. The bank loans AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT secured in the past have an average of 3.3% in annual interest burden, if I remember correctly, which is much lower than the coupon rate of the current exercise but I guess we cannot have everything.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has the same BBB- credit rating as CDL-Hospitality Trust and I expect the REIT to issue more of such notes in future. Could we perhaps see a 10 years tenor and a 3.5% coupon rate in the next issue?

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q 2013.

Useful information on the REIT:
Corporate Profile Seminar Presentation (17 Nov 2012)

Capitamalls Asia: Longer term uptrend.

Earlier this month, I mentioned that we want to accumulate shares of Capitamalls Asia on any correction in price. Well, it happened while I was away in the USA and anyone who bought some then for a trade would book a 10% gain by now.

Daily chart

Weekly chart

As price rose, volume has been falling. The MACD, a price momentum oscillator, has not formed a higher high even as share price did. The MFI, a momentum oscillator that takes in both price and volume, likewise is lethargic. The negative divergences thus formed suggest a possible correction in share price is near.

In the longer term, share price is likely to continue strengthening as the uptrend is intact with all the MAs rising. So, the appropriate strategy for me continues to be to add at supports. I would look to the 50d MA for guidance as to when to add to long positions.

Related post:
Capitamalls Asia: Any correction is a buying opportunity.

Top 1,000 websites in Singapore.

In my first year or so as a blogger, I would track and analyse my blog's traffic and I even published reports complete with charts every few months. A reader said that I was producing quarterly reports like listed companies. Anyway, after slightly more than a year doing it, I stopped. I guess the novelty wore off.

Today, I look at Alexa and was pleasantly surprised to find that ASSI has made its way into the top 1,000 websites in Singapore. I feel that this is probably a milestone and so, I am sharing this bit of discovery here with my readers. If ASSI were indeed a business like some people tell me it should be, I guess a special dividend could be declared. ;-p

Related posts:
1. Alexa (Part 2).
2. ASSI 1Q 2011 quarterly report.

Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg's three-month global Alexa traffic rank is 348,802. Visitors to the site view an average of 1.4 unique pages per day. The site is relatively popular among.

  

Alexa Traffic Rank
	995 Rank inSGTraffic Rank in Country A rough estimate of singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg's popularity in a specific country. The rank by country is calculated using a combination of average daily visitors to singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg and pageviews on singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg from users from that country over the past month. The site with the highest combination of visitors and pageviews is ranked #1 in that country.

Buy stuff from your favourite online stores and get them to ship over to Singapore using vPost! Three lucky customers will win a dream vacation!

Details here: vPOST.

Marco Polo Marine: Patience will be rewarded.

I added to my long position in Marco Polo Marine as long term support was tested. Today, its share price touched a high of 35c before closing at 34.5c on the back of rather high volume. The positive divergence between the CMF and price action has played out. The MACD is rising in the negative territory and we could see price going higher and momentum going positive once more. A retest of 37c, the high of the double top, could happen.

Daily chart.

Weekly chart.

Fundamentally, Marco Polo Marine presented an impressive set of numbers:

All-time high net profit of S$21.3 million against consecutive 8 years of record high revenue at S$89.8 million and record high gross profit at S$29.2 million for FY2012.

Record gross profit and net profit attained with margins at enhanced levels of 32.5% and 23.8% for FY2012, representing increases of 4.4% points and 3.0% points over FY2011 respectively.

Operating cashflow position reversed from a net cashflow used in operations to a net cashflow generated from operations of S$34.5 million in FY2012.

EPS of about 6.3 Singapore cents for FY2012, representing an increase of 23.5% over FY2011, while NAV per share increased by 14.4% to 41.4 Singapore cents as at 30 September 2012.

Declaration of a special interim dividend of 0.8 Singapore cents per share for Q1 FY2013.

See: Media Release.

In earlier blog posts, I stated my reasons for believing that Marco Polo Marine's share price is too low and that we could see a much higher price over time.

If we expect Marco Polo Marine's shares to trade at similar valuation to its peers, a PE of 8x would value each share at 50.4c. This implies a 46% gain from the last closing price of 34.5c.

Patience will be rewarded.

Related post:
Marco Polo Marine: Accumulation mode.

Vending machines in the USA.

On this last trip to the USA, I came across a couple of vending machines that I have never seen before anywhere else.

Guess what this one was selling?

Scratch and win cards! US$3.00 each.

What about this one?

Electronics! Amazing, isn't it?

In a situation where there is a shortage of space and labour, vending machines could be the answer for products which might not really need salespeople.

In Singapore, we see machines selling drinks, snacks and even Gardenia bread. However, we have not even touched the tip of the iceberg. They could be one of the answers to Singapore's problem with high rentals and a shortage of labour.

Related post:
Distinctly Japanese.

Yomeishu: Win Megumi and a beverage mixer!

The everyday person works very hard on a daily basis, taking a toll on their health.

Yomeishu is able to restore and maintain your well-being with natural ingredients.

You can win the goodness of Megumi (a liqueur made with 13 oriental herbs for everyday relaxation), and a Japanese beverage mixer just by answering a simple question!

20 winners will be picked each week for 5 weeks.

This week’s entries close on 28th November 2012.

You could be a winner at:
Yomeishu Guess & Win!

Be cautious even as we accept higher risks.

When I did a Diploma in Business, I had to study Business Law. One thing I remember is that something we buy has to be "fit for the purpose it was built for" and be "of merchantible quality".

So, let's say you bought a contraption which was supposed to keep food fresh but it did not; then, it was not fit for the purpose it was built for. If the contraption really did keep food fresh but it started to fall apart within the first week of use, then, it was not of merchantible quality.

Singapore's Lemon Law which kicked in on 1 September 2012 stipulates a 6 months period in which buyers now have to take action on any defective product. This addresses the issue of "merchantible quality".

In the weekend edition of The Business Times, I read an interesting article on whether conventional wealth management wisdom which says that people nearing retirement should have more of their wealth in conservative bonds is "fit for purpose". This actually raised a question in my mind as to whether wealth managers are providing products which are fit for purpose or are they self serving sales people.

In the few encounters I had with wealth managers, I was advised to be more aggressive with my investments because people in their 30s and early 40s could afford to do so. One asked me why was I so conservative when I told him I was not interested in any of his proposals which sounded rather risky to me. I was then advised that only people nearing retirement should be more conservative.

So far, my personal experience with wealth managers has not been positive, having lost much money through products they sold to me. Unlike physical goods, wealth managers do not have to provide any guarantees as to a financial product's performance. This could be the reason why when the Mini Bonds and other structured products offered a "capital guaranteed" feature, they drew so many investors. Of course, they were not of "merchantible quality" but no buyer could tell until things fell apart. Unlike physical goods, it was too late to do anything.

In an environment of very low interest rates and high inflation, we have to seek higher returns on capital to protect our wealth. However, we have to exercise caution even as we accept higher risks.

Related posts:
1. Low interest rates' a double whammy for some.
2. To protect our wealth, we have to take risk.
3. Fraud: Like taking candy from a baby.

Silver bullion coins.

Sharing photos of some silver bullion coins I own:

I still believe that people who have some extra cash should own some investment grade gold and silver as a hedge against the flaws of fiat currencies. Where silver is concerned, I think the Canadian Maple Leaf is one of the purest around. Relatively cheaper too.

Read my latest piece on the topic in my blog on precious metals:
Gold and silver: Still important assets to own.

Related post:
Buy gold and silver as insurance.

Olam: A time bomb?

The high profile standoff between Muddy Waters and Olam is not about something new. Earlier this year in June, I wondered at Olam's share buy backs as well. I blogged about it and attached a section of research done by Kim Eng on the company then.

What Muddy Waters has said does make sense and Olam has to focus on its business rather than its share price.

Should Olam come to collapse (as we believe it will), its use of much-needed cash to buy back shares at this time should give rise to questions about whether fiduciary responsibilities have been breached – particularly given the possible existence of individual motivations that are not necessarily aligned with those of Olam’s lenders.  - Taken from Muddy Waters' open letter to Olam.

To read the letter in full, go to Muddy Water's website: here.

So, is Olam going kaput in time? I know that Sunny Varghese was at the helm of Cityspring Infrastructure Trust. I was not impressed with that entity and was lucky enough to exit with a small gain. Is he able to do much better with Olam?

Short sellers could home in on Olam in time and it would be interesting to see how things turn out.

Related posts:
1. Olam: Share price up on buy backs.
2. Cityspring Infrastructure Trust: Rights issue.