Tea with AK71: Healthy and economical lunch.

What am I having for lunch today?

This is easy to prepare and to bring to work. Easy to wash up too.

This meal is high in fibre and full of natural goodness. Lower in glycaemic index than ground oats, I also prefer raw rolled oats to instant oats which are pre-cooked and dried.

Although instant oats are convenient, just add hot water and they are ready to eat, they are not as chewy, flavourful and nutritious. Anyone in the know would tell you the less processed, the better.

How do we prepare something like this? Remember this? Tea with AK71: A healthy low cost meal.

A healthy lunch that is also gentle on our wallets. I like it.

Mind Your Money: Budgeting.

I have the pleasure of watching "Mind Your Money" on XIN MSN this evening. The first episode is on budgeting. It is basically about managing personal cash flow.

If people were to ask me how I grew my money, I would say that I spend as little as possible and save and invest the rest. So, it all starts with budgeting.

I wrote a piece on wage slaves before which attracted quite a few comments. Obviously, people who spend as much as they make are not about to grow their money since there is nothing left to grow.

If you find that you have been working for a few years with reasonably good income but you are not saving much money, if any, this program could be for you. I think it is quite good for anyone who has never done any budgeting before.

Watch "Mind Your Money": http://video.xin.msn.com/watch/video/episode-1/1gqq74i6l?cpkey=6b6b1cb2-3c96-4fcc-9001-271abc9c19fa%7c%7c%7c%7c&src=v5:share:sharepermalink:&from=sharepermalink


Related posts:
1. Wage slaves should be fearful.
2. Money Management: Needs and wants.

Further credit tightening is almost a given.

I was talking to a friend whose family controls a public listed company in Singapore and he is very optimistic about Singapore, very confident that we will not suffer a recession. Although I reminded him that in the last global financial crisis, only China, India and Indonesia escaped a recession, he remains very optimistic. Is this optimism the norm?

Many think that the housing prices in Singapore are being driven up by foreigners. Numbers released not too long ago shows that foreigners accounted for some 16% of condos sold so far this year. The rest were sold to Singaporeans and PRs. If I remember correctly, PRs accounted for 5% or less of total HDB flats transactions. So, the vast majority of transactions in residential real estate here belong to Singaporeans. Logically, a great number of Singaporeans are doing well.

Indeed, if the recent astronomical COE prices are anything to go by, I would say that people and companies here are doing extremely well. Therefore, a pervasive sense of optimism and even invincibility is not difficult to understand.

Personally, I have a blog post not too long ago which questioned whether there would be a double dip recession or whether we would simply see very slow growth. Do I have the answer? If I were to say I do, would you believe me?

Do I know anything for sure? I know that if there should be a prolonged slowdown in the world economy, Singapore will not be spared. I know that if there should be a credit tightening in the world banking system, Singapore will not be spared. Singapore has a very open economy and to think that we will be spared any negative ramifications is simply naive.

In order to stay optimistic about Singapore's economy, we have to be optimistic about the world economy and we have to stay optimistic that there will not be any significant credit tightening in the world banking system. Do you think it is easy to be optimistic about these?

"In July, banks and insurers agreed to contribute to reducing Greece's debt via a 21-percent writedown on their holdings of Greek bonds... But recently there has been growing speculation that Athens needs to reduce the value of its debt by 50 percent -- or perhaps even more -- to make its finances sustainable." Read article here.

This speculation is likely going to be a reality.

"Diplomatic sources said Europe and the IMF would only proceed with a second planned Greek bailout of 109 billion euros if banks accepted losses of "at least 50 percent" on their debt holdings." Read article here.

This is going to be disastrous for European lenders holding Greek debt. How would this affect us in Asia?

In a discussion I had with my father a few weeks ago, I told him that we could see European lenders tightening on credit and recalling funds from Asia where they have a significant presence.  Although this could be a welcome development as Asia is sloshing in funds in search of higher returns, resulting in strong inflationary pressure, people and companies who have thus far done well by leveraging on cheap money could suffer.

I am not an economist but some form of credit tightening with the proposed Greek "debt haircut" of 50% is more likely to take place than not. I can only hope that the negative effects will not be as fearsome as some have made them out to be.

For any who recently borrowed to the max buying a dream private property or a dream car at record high prices here on our tiny island, I can only hope that the dreams will not become nightmares.

First REIT: Bumper distribution 3Q 2011.

Ex-rights, with a pro forma DPU of 6.4c for 2011, I estimated First REIT's fair value to be at 80c per unit many moons ago. This was based on an expectation that 8% distribution yield was fair for the REIT. With the latest announcement of a DPU of 1.92c for 3Q 2011, is the estimated fair value of 80c outdated and probably too low?

I still hold the units I bought during the last bear market at 42c per unit as well as the rights units at 50c per unit. I also bought quite a number of nil-paid rights at 16c per unit and the final cost on those units is 66c per unit. In the recent market weakness, I bought more units at 73c, 74.5c and 76c. These, I partially divested as price tested resistance. On cost, the distribution yields on my current positions in the REIT are between 8.8% to 16%.

First REIT's unit price ended the last session at 79.5c. NAV/unit stands at 77.88c. So, the REIT is trading above NAV now. This could change in future even if the REIT's unit price stays at the current level as the management is in the early stages of talks with its sponsor for more acquisitions. With gearing level at 16.4%, the REIT has a very comfortable debt headroom. Another round of equity fund raising is, of course, possible but there is less necessity for one in the near future.

With news of higher DPU for 3Q 2011, could we see unit price testing and probably even breaking the psychological resistance at 80c in the new trading week? We could, of course.

Am I going to increase my investment in the REIT at current prices? I won't. Why?

The DPU of 1.92c for 3Q2011 includes 0.34c which is a special non-recurring distribution. This is from divestment gains of the REIT's Adam Road property. If we remove 0.34c, the DPU is 1.58c which is more in line with expectations. 0.34c is just a bonus.

So, although some want to increase their investment in the REIT tomorrow, I won't.

XD: 28 October.
Payable on 29 Nov.

Maintaining my current investment in the REIT, I am very pleased with the bumper distribution and look forward to its payment on 29 Nov.

Read announcement here.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

Tea with AK71: Breakfast at Long John Silver's.

I think breakfast at Long John Silver's compared to McDonald's offers better value for money.

Thick slices of toast with turkey bacon, eggs and cheese. Yummy! I am not crazy about the hash brown though.

Iced Milo! Slurp!

Price: $5.10 with tea or coffee. Add 50c to upgrade to an iced Milo. :)

From their website:

Caution: Waiting time can be quite long if they are busy. I would usually avoid if I see long queues or many tables with a number standee which means diners are waiting for their meals to be sent to them. In terms of efficiency, McDonald's still takes the top spot.

Sabana REIT: 3Q FY2011.

Sabana REIT together with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT are my top investments at the moment. Together, they account for a lion's share of my passive income generated from investments in the Singapore stock market.

Sabana REIT has declared a DPU of 2.14c for 3Q FY2011. Based on today's closing price of 91c per unit, this represents a distribution yield of 9.4% based on an annualised DPU of 8.56c. Beats leaving money in a savings account and being paid an interest income of 0.05% per annum, doesn't it? The best one year fixed deposit I know of pays an interest income of only 1%.

Sabana REIT will also legally complete acquisitions of four properties in 4Q 2011. These acquisitions are DPU accretive since they are fully funded by debt. This is possible due to its very low pre-acquisition gearing level. So, expect DPU to bump up in the coming quarters. Good news for anyone investing for income, surely.

NAV per unit after distribution: $1.05
Interest cover ratio: 7.6x
Estimated gearing, post acquisitions: 35%

Sabana REIT's total AUM is set to cross $1b with the completion of the said acquisitions and the REIT is bound to deliver on its promises made during its IPO.

The counter will go XD on 25 October and the income distribution is payable to unitholders on 29 November.

Read related posts on Sabana REIT: here.

Old Chang Kee: Initiated a long position at 26c.

If we go out in the evenings or on weekends, we will see most of the restaurants packed and some of the more popular ones even have long queues. 

A friend of mine invested in Soup Restaurant which gives its shareholders a card that gives a 15% discount off the total bill for dining at their outlets.

Personally, I like going to Soup Restaurant too. However, I think of it as more upmarket, similar to Lao Beijing. 

In a recession, their businesses could take a hit. In this respect, I find Old Chang Kee to be a more attractive proposition.

Old Chang Kee's food kiosks are ubiquitous and always seem to be doing good business. Well, at least for those I see. 

I doubt very much that, in a recession, we will see people cutting back on their favourite curry puffs, sotong sticks or yam cakes in a big way.

Old Chang Kee's shares are thinly traded and it is rather risky to put in overnight buy orders.  

I look at it from time to time but did not do so recently for a few days when it touched a low of 22.5c a share. Less than 200 lots changed hands in 4 sessions at under 26c a share.

When it was trading at 38c and higher just a few months ago, I found it too expensive for my taste (pardon the pun). 

Now, at 26c, I decided to take a nibble (sorry, another pun) as it is definitely more attractive.

Six months basic EPS improved from 1.03c to 1.28c, year on year. 

However, as the company issued warrants in August last year, on a fully diluted basis, EPS improved from 1.03c to 1.07c year on year. 

It is quite obvious to me that this is a growth company.





Warrant holders are also in the money since they paid only 5c per warrant which has an exercise price of 10c. 

A good investment they made in Old Chang Kee, no doubt.

Gross profit improved 11.6% while net profit improved 25.9%, year on year. 

A pro forma full year EPS of 2.14c would give a PE ratio of 12.15x for the company. 

The company's balance sheet has also strengthened with lower outstanding bank loan balances. 

Cash and cash equivalents also increased almost 50%, year on year. Strong cash flow from operations has been cited as being the main reason for this.





The company could continue to pay a dividend of 1.5c per share which means a dividend yield of 5.77% at 26c a share.

The only other blog post I had on Old Chang Kee was rather tongue in cheek, if you remember. 

Now that I am a shareholder of the company, eating a curry puff will be a somewhat more savoury experience. I hope so, anyway. ;)





Read the Half Year 2011 report here.

Related post:
Old Chang Kee: Filling not enough.

K-REIT: 17 for 20 rights issue.

K-REIT will be seeking approval at an EGM for a rights issue priced at 85c per rights unit. 

This is to partially fund the purchase of Ocean Financial Centre. 

Mr. Market does not like this whole deal and sold down the units to a low of 93c this morning.

What do I think? 

Well, the whole exercise is expected to be DPU accretive which is something investors for income want to see. 

DPU is expected to increase from 6.37c to 6.72c.

Using the low of 93c per unit this morning, the TERP is 93c x 20 + 85c x 17 /37 = 89.32c.  

A pro forma DPU of 6.72c means a distribution yield of 7.52%.




Ocean Financial Centre is currently about 80% occupied. 

If the REIT manager is able to bump up the occupancy rate, we could see DPU and yield increase further. 

However, with the current softening office rentals which is likely to get worse, it could be an uphill battle. 

Commitment by the vendor to provide rental support for a period of five years.

Personally, I have a very small position in K-REIT from a long time ago. 

When I was deciding to invest between K-REIT and Suntec REIT more than two years ago, I chose Suntec REIT for its almost equal exposure to office and retail spaces. 

I have pared down my investment in Suntec REIT some time ago since, expecting its exposure to office space to be a drag on future performance. 

In short, I am not feeling sanguine about office space rentals and have not increased exposure to the corresponding REITs.

Having said this, given my very small position in K-REIT, I will most probably subscribe to the rights issue. 

If I were not invested in the first instance, I would not bother buying in now to gain exposure.




Some important numbers:
Gearing: Increases from 39.8% to 41.6%
All in cost of debt: Decreases from 2.48% to 2.23%
Interest cover ratio: 4.6x to 4.3x

See the slides presentation here.

Related post:
Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs (2).

Hock Lian Seng: Insider buying.

There has been quite a bit of insider buying going on in Hock Lian Seng as its share price plunged in recent weeks to hit a new low of 23.5c. I know Hock Lian Seng to have a rather robust business although it is in a cyclical industry. So, I decided to take a look at its numbers.





Revenue for 1H 2011 reduced 32.3% compared to 1H 2010 due to the completion of  Marina Bay Station project. Other than this, the rest of its numbers still look good.

I like very much how its cash and short term deposits increased 11.7% from $149.7m to $167.156m. Order book stands at $272m as of 30 June 2011.





Hock Lian Seng is most probably capable of continuing a dividend payout of 1.5c per share when the time comes. At today's closing price of 24c per share, we are looking at a potential dividend yield of 6.25%.

Could its share price weaken further? It could and I would like to buy at a price closer to its NAV/share which is 17.8c. Having said this, at 24c per share, it is already a value proposition, I believe.





See 1H 2011 report here.

NOL: A messy ascending triangle?

Could this be an ascending triangle I see in NOL's chart?

Although ascending triangles are usually seen as a continuation pattern in an uptrend, a breakout could send NOL's share price higher to test resistance provided by the descending 100dMA which is currently at $1.32.

The 20dMA is set to form a golden cross with the 50dMA and is likely to provide immediate support at $1.115 in case of a pull back.

MACD shows that momentum is clearly positive now while the MFI shows higher lows, suggesting that demand is strengthening. The MFI which takes into account both share price and trading volume could test the 50% line for support if volume continues to dwindle while price stays at resistance.

As NOL's share price seems to be finding a floor if not bottoming, looking at the Stochastics provides us with insight as to why it seems to be having a hard time moving higher. This momentum oscillator is, after all, more accurate in situations where prices are moving sideways. The Stochastics has risen into overbought territory.

All in all, this TA seems to suggest that buying if the share price should pull back to support is a good idea because there seems to be a bias for an upward movement in the shorter term.

Tea with AK71: Visit a sky garden.

In the last few years, sky gardens have become the rage or at least I think so. Many condominiums also have sky gardens these days and they are apparently good selling points.

The very enterprising Marina Bay Sands even charge a fee to enter their sky garden (aka SkyPark) which is probably the tallest one in Singapore at 200m above ground. Personally, I wouldn't bother paying $20 just to gain entrance.

If we want to experience a sky garden, try the one at the National Library in Bugis. I was there recently and I really like it. No entrance fee too.

I like this. Creepers growing up some pillars which reminds me of a jungle.

Pandan! This spot smells really nice and will probably stay roach free!

If you like nature but are asthmatic like me, you will like this place.

I used to have a pot of Aloe Vera at home, if you remember. ;)

Open seven days a week, this is one sky garden all of us can enjoy for free.

A view of the Hotel Inter-Continental and Illuma Shopping Mall from the garden.

Go visit and see for yourself. Have a good weekend. :)

P.S. All photos taken with my trusty Samsung mobile phone, which, by the way, is also free, or have I said this before? ;)

You might want to read these:

Tea with AK71: Aloe Vera flowers?

Tea with AK71: My Samsung mobile phone.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Worth another look.

I was looking at Cambridge Industrial Trust's latest presentation slides. It could be worth another look as its income could bump up quite meaningfully in 2012 and 2013.

Latest numbers:
Gearing: 33.1%
(No refinancing due till 2014.)
NTA/unit: 61.7c
Interest cover ratio: 5.1x
DPU: 1.082c

What I find attractive:
1. Built-To-Suit Project at Tuas View Circuit. Completion by 3Q 2012.
2. Built-To-Suit Project at Seletar Aerospace Park. Completion by 3Q 2013.
3. AEI for 30 Toh Guan Road. Completion by 4Q 2012.
4. AEI for 88 International Road. Completion by 4Q 2013.
5. AEI for 4 & 6 Clementi Loop. Completion by 4Q 2012.
6. Proposed acquisition of 25 Pioneer Crescent.

With gearing level at 33.1%, the Trust has ample debt headroom to finance items 1 to 5 if the management should decide to take on more debt. This would mean greater distribution yield accretion.

Item 6 is to be financed with internal cash resources which means gearing level will not go up and the purchase will be distribution yield accretive, everything else remaining equal.

Buying now at 46c per unit will give a distribution yield of about 9.4%. Even with all the initiatives announced, I would like to see this yield going nearer to 10% before increasing my investment in the Trust.

See presentation slides here.

Capitaland, CapitaMalls Asia and NOL: Closing charts.

CAPITALAND

Volume increased over the last session but the bulls were not strong enough to have the share price close above the 50dMA. Closing at $2.52 is where we find resistance provided by the declining 50dMA.

Although price did touch a high of $2.56, forming a white spinning top suggests indecision and is a sign of weakness.

The counter has, in the meantime, broken out of its immediate downtrend. Immediate support is provided by the flat 20dMA at $2.49.

CAPITAMALLS ASIA

CapitaMalls Asia's chart looks more promising. Another white candle was formed today on higher volume. $1.25 could be resistance turned support.

Further upward movement in price could see the gap at $1.33 filled. Immediate support is at $1.25.

NOL

Although a black candle was formed today on relatively higher volume, there is reason to be optimistic. Why?

The decline in price only travelled halfway down the white candle from the previous day. This suggests that the bears were lacking in conviction and there were enough buyers to keep the share price from falling too much.

A decline to immediate support at $1.125 could see more buying momentum.

CapitaMalls Asia: Watch the 50dMA.

The MACD has formed a higher low together with a higher low in share price last week. Momentum has clearly improved and we could have found a floor here, if not the bottom.

Closing at $1.25 in the last session meant that the resistance provided by the declining 50dMA was still valid. This morning, thus far, price action is flirting with this MA.

Could we see the share price closing above the 50dMA today? If it does, the 50dMA could be resistance turned support and price could go higher to test resistance provided by the declining 100dMA. This could be another good trade.

Capitaland: Positive divergence.

Capitaland spots a positive divergence. As price formed a new low on 4 Oct, it is clear a few sessions later that the MACD has formed a higher low. The MACD is a lagging indicator just like other momentum oscillators. So, things are usually clearer a few sessions later. Acting before a clearer picture forms would be to pre-empt.

That the MACD formed a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory also suggests the return of buying interest although not strong enough to send the MACD into positive territory. Coupled with the positive divergence, we could see Capitaland's share price moving higher.

A long white candle was formed in the last session as resistance provided by the 20dMA was overcome convincingly. Share price is currently resisted by the declining 50dMA which is at $2.52. If this were to be broken, I believe bulls will return and bears will cover their shorts.  We could then see the share price rising to test resistance provided by the declining 100dMA which approximates $2.71 which is also a potential double bottom neckline.

Could be quite a rewarding trade for breakout traders if a breakout should materialise.

NOL: Found a floor.

It seems to me that NOL's share price has found a floor, if not the bottom.

If we were to draw a trendline connecting the highs since 5 Jan 11, it is obvious that the long term downtrend remains intact. This trendline approximates the declining 100dMA which makes this the MA to watch. Then, why do I say the share price has found a floor?

Looking at the MACD, we see that it has been rising since hitting a low in late August. In the last session, it broke into positive territory which signifies the return of positive momentum.

The last three sessions also saw the share price trading above the 50dMA, suggesting that this MA could be resistance turned support. This is approximately at $1.125. If this support holds strong, we could see price rising to test resistance provided by the 100dMA which approximates $1.30.

Given the circumstances, buying closer to support could be a good idea for a trade.

ARA: Divested at $1.26 and $1.30.

Trading volume for ARA expanded today, being the highest in six sessions, which helped to form a long wickless white candle. This is the most bullish of candles. Could we see its share price climbing higher tomorrow? We could.

However, I have completely divested my long position in ARA and would not be able to benefit from further appreciation in its share price, if any. Completely? Yes. My overnight sell orders at $1.26 and $1.30 were both filled today. So, does it mean that I believe that ARA's share price has peaked for now? I don't know if it has peaked but I feel that it is nearing a longer term and, most likely, stronger resistance.

Longer term resistance? Connecting the highs of 31 May, 1 Aug and 1 Sep will give us a clear trendline which approximates the declining 50dMA which is at $1.32 thereabouts. If this resistance could be overcome, we could see the counter's share price moving higher. Otherwise, it would retrace to supports.

I simply followed my TA (for what it is worth) and divested as the gap at $1.26 was filled and at $1.30 which is just one bid away from gap fill at $1.305. The latter was filled after the market closed at 5.04pm.

Good luck to all who are still vested.

Related post:
ARA: Partial divestment at $1.18.

Tea with AK71: A short fairy tale!

I would like to share this fairy tale (which could be a reality for some of us):

Thanks to a cboxer, Patty, for sharing this with me.

I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did. ;-p

ARA: Partial divestment at $1.18.

On 7 October, I said in a blog post that the 61.8% Fibo line "approximates $1.18 and this is also where gap close could take place if the resistance at $1.16 could be taken out convincingly". My overnight sell order at $1.18 was filled.

Closing at $1.205 is exactly where we find the declining 20dMA today. This also coincides with the declining trendline connecting the tops of 1, 9 and 21 Sep. So, it explains why it was such a strong resistance.

With the MACD forming a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory, we could see a continuation of this rebound. A necessary condition would be higher volume if price should attempt to push higher. Notice how volume has reduced as price inched higher in recent sessions. This is most probably unsustainable.

Overcoming resistance at $1.205 in the next session convincingly could see buyers piling back into the stock which could then see gap closing at $1.26 and perhaps even at $1.305. The latter is still possible since the declining 50dMA approximates $1.32 and provides some breathing room.

Related post:
ARA: Partial divestment at $1.155.

Courage Marine: Bought more at 10c per share.

For a while, it looked as if a double top was forming in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Well, the potential double top formation has been negated as the BDI broke resistance and looks set to form a higher high.

As most of Courage Marine's business is on a per trip basis and at spot rate, a higher BDI is good news for the company. If the BDI continues to rise into winter, it could turn out to be quite a good quarter for Courage Marine and it looks like it could happen.

Bloomberg reported earlier in the year that freight rates are poised to rise after hitting a two year low as owners of ships carrying coal and iron ore scrapped the most vessels in 28 years. Indeed, Courage Marine recently sold one of its vessels to be scrapped as well. Also, Malaysian Bulker Carrier predicted that the dry bulk market could do well in the medium term due to Japan increasing imports of coal.

Technically, the MACD has been rising since plunging to a low in negative territory in mid August 2011. Although momentum is still negative, the rising MACD suggests that momentum is improving.

If we believe that Courage Marine's share price is currently range bound without any trend, looking at the Stochastics reveals that momentum is closer to the lower end of the range, although not oversold. Any further upward movement in price could find initial resistance at 11c while support is at 9.5c.

Related posts:
1. Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c per share.
2. Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Tea with AK71: Alkaline water.

In recent months, I kept being bombarded by news about alkaline water. I hear about it on the radio. I read about it in the magazines and newspapers. I read about it in flyers given out at shopping malls. Is alkaline water really so amazing?

A few days ago, when I was shopping at NTUC Fairprice. I saw alkaline water on sale! These bottles were placed together with bottles of mineral water and distilled water. Price: $2.90 for a 2 litre bottle. Made in Singapore.

Anyway, the idea is that our body is very acidic and the food we eat is mostly acidifying too. So, to maintain a healthier balance, we need to eat alkalising food. For some time now, when I want a snack, I eat an orange, an apple, a handful of raisins, figs or almonds. These are alkalising. So, I guess drinking alkaline water is a natural next step.

I know there are companies which sell machines which would make normal tap water at home into alkaline water either through distillation or ionising processes. I don't think I can convince my mom to have one installed. She is skeptical about the health benefits of alkaline water. Frankly, I don't know for sure if the benefits are proven beyond a doubt as well. At $2.90 a day, I guess, it is worth a try.

Does anyone have any personal experience, good or bad, with alkaline water? Would you like to leave a comment to share your experience?

Er, in case you are wondering, this is not an advertorial. I don't make any money from blogging about this.  ;)

ARA: Partial divestment at $1.155.

When I was looking at ARA's chart last night, I decided that I should do a partial divestment. I would sell those shares I bought on 4 Oct, Tuesday.

Why? Volume was relatively thin. Up days accompanied by such thin volume are suspicious.

I decided that there would be resistance at $1.16 because that was the price at the start of two long black candle days and with high volume to boot.

Shareholders who had wanted to divest then but did not do so at $1.16 would remember that price. They would also remember how a low of $1.015 was hit by the close of the next day. That was a whopping 14.5c loss in just two days!

Mr. Market remembers extremes well and would try to divest if $1.16 should be tested. Today, the counter hit a high of $1.165 before closing at $1.15. The resistance at $1.16 was overcome only briefly. Closing at $1.15 means $1.16 is still the resistance to watch for now.

Using Fibo lines, we see that 61.8% approximates $1.18 and this is also where gap close could take place if the resistance at $1.16 could be taken out convincingly. The next higher resistance is at $1.23 as provided by the 50% Fibo line and the declining 20dMA.

Naturally, my next sell order is at $1.18. I could also place another sell order where the declining 20dMA is approximating. However, unless volume should increase meaningfully, it is hard to envisage ARA's share price moving much higher. Volume is, after all, the fuel that drives rallies.

As the MACD is still in negative territory and with no sign of a positive divergence, the shares bought on Tuesday were really for a quick trade on expectations that a rebound would materialise. So, I put in an overnight sell order at $1.155, just one bid below $1.16 where I expected some resistance. This was filled.

Locking in gains with a partial divestment is, I believe, the right thing to do. The counter is in a downtrend and we want to sell at resistance in a downtrend. I think that is what short sellers are waiting to do as well.

Related post:
ARA: A trading buy?