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I spend a lot of time replying to emails from readers, even more time than I spend blogging. So, I treat these conversations as blog posts and share what I feel is worth sharing in my blog. In doing so, I am always careful not to reveal names or email addresses, for examples, so that privacy is not compromised. I believe that such sharing will benefit many and hurt no one. I hope readers who choose to write to me agree. :)

Saizen REIT: Insider buying continues.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Saizen REIT remains my single largest investment in the stock market and I firmly believe that it offers value for money. I also believe that investing in a REIT where the management's interests are aligned with that of the unit holders is a big plus.

On 9 Dec, Mr Chang Sean Pey, bought 200 lots in the open market at 16c /unit.  Mr Chang now has 2,600 lots. Insider buying in Saizen REIT has become more the norm than exception.

Saizen REIT has 1,119,352,395 Units issued as at 12 November 2010. Apparently, more have exercised their warrants and the REIT has 1,122,909,819 Units issued as at 9 December 2010. It has 323,447,598 Warrants outstanding as at 9 December 2010.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Insider buying and divestment.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Revised DPU and fair value.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

This perhaps comes a bit late, the result of my blog being a one man show. Reading the Market Update dated 23 November, "Sale of 23 Changi South Avenue 2 Singapore above book value" which is expected to be completed by January 2011, I went and found out how much this property contributed to the REIT's rental income for the year ended 31 March 2010.  It was S$1.4549 million.  This is 3.49% of total income for the year ended 31 March 2010.

Doing some back of the envelope calculation, prior to the rights issue for the purchase of 27 Penjuru Lane, the DPU was 2.15c.  Post rights and acquisition, the estimated DPU was given as 2.08c.  If we remove 3.49% from the DPU of 2.15c, that would give us 2.075c.  So, post rights and acquisition, we would get a DPU of approximately 2c.

As the sale of 23 Changi South Avenue 2 will be completed only in January 2011, its contribution to rental income for the quarter October to December 2010 is unaffected.  With the contribution from 27 Penjuru Lane coming in, I expect the income distribution that would take place in March 2011 to be 0.52c per unit as per guidance.  For subsequent quarters, it should be about 0.5c per unit, everything else remaining constant.

However, with a bigger cash balance on hand, I fully expect the REIT's management to do some asset enhancement to increase lettable space for properties which have not maximised their plot ratios or to make new acquisitions which are NPI yield accretive in nature.  The former would be easier than the latter, I suspect, given the strong recovery in real estate values in Singapore.

At the revised DPU of 2c, the REIT still provides an attractive distribution yield of 9.3% at a unit price of 21.5c which is where I hope to load up more. There are still more positives about this REIT and there is probably more upside than downside in the next 12 months. After revising the annualised DPU to 2c and expecting the REIT to trade at an 8% yield, the fair value I ascribe to the REIT is now 25c /unit.

Note that I did not take into consideration the other positive developments in the Market Update which is the 100% occupancy achieved for 15 Tai Seng Drive (85.7% as of 31 March 2010) and 23 Tai Seng Drive (84% as of 31 March 2010).  Conservatively, this should add about $400,000 to the REIT's annual rental income.

Read Market Update.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q FY2011

Sabana REIT: Touched 92.5c.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Sabana REIT touched 92.5c, the support provided by the 150% Fibo line, and I was there waiting with my overnight buy queue but not many lots were sold down at that price and I did not get any. It would seem that the selling pressure is finally easing off. Am I sure of this?

Look at the OBV and we would see a double bottom pattern forming. Distribution activity has definitely declined. Look at the candlestick formed today and we would see a dragonfly doji. Market participants tried to sell down the REIT only to see price recovering to where it started the session. The bulls are fighting back. All this happened on a day with higher volume. Encouraging.

What do I think would happen from now? Well, there is no guarantee that the REIT would not weaken in price but the selling is definitely less intense now. I am hazarding a guess that, everything remaining constant, 92.5c would be a strong support.

Related post:
Sabana REIT

First REIT: Waiting at 67c.

I was waiting at 67c, the long term support provided by the 200dMA, with my overnight buy queue but First REIT was just teasing me. It went to 67.5c and there it stayed. Market participants seemed quite happy to buy up at 67.5c which would provide a yield of 9.48%.

I was in LP's cbox and some asked me to consider buying the nil-paid rights instead since they were trading at 16.5c. Including the 50c to exercise the rights, the price is only 66.5c, 1c cheaper than the mother share's 67.5c. In fact, LP (the blog master of Bully the Bear) and JW (the blog master of Wealth Buch) both bought the nil-paid rights at 16.5c today. I will have to consider this suggestion. From the queues today, it would seem that there is relatively strong support for the rights at 16c. Getting the rights at 16c would mean a unit price of only 66c and a yield of 9.7%!

Now, why are the nil-paid rights being sold off so cheaply? I had an idea that there are probably some who do not wish to fork out more money to exercise the rights. However, JW's broker sent him an email and it mentioned: "First REIT - SGX is selling the rights for those who are not entitled to the Rights Units (Investors with Foreign addresses)". So, there are also some who are not able to accept and pay for the rights. It would seem that First REIT has many such investors. Would they be interested in buying some First REIT units to avoid dilution? They just might.

This REIT is definitely a strong buy at these levels.

Related post:
First REIT.

Healthway Medical: Broke out of resistance.

On 29 Nov, I mentioned that "I am wary of being whipsawed out. With the MACD hugging the signal line, this counter could go either way. However, with a picture of low volume pull back intact, comparing the high volume sell downs in mid October, when support at 16c was broken, to the current thin trading volume, the suggestion is that most of the weaker holders have been shaken out."

Healthway Medical has been seeing some buying interest in the last few sessions. Today, price broke out of resistance provided by the declining 20dMA at 15c and closed at 15.5c with 1,504 lots bought up at 5.05pm. A total of 13,794 lots changed hands today. If the buying interest follows through, we could see its share price rising to test resistance provided by the merged 100d and 200d MAs and that is at 17c.

It would seem that the positive divergence observed in the recent past is playing out nicely.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Support at 15c broke.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, First REIT, Golden Agriculture, CapitaMalls Asia and Sabana REIT.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: For some time now, I keep saying that this REIT is undervalued. A reader sent me a little snippet from Kim Eng and I would like to share it here with everyone:

One of few undervalued players around. AA-REIT is still trading at a 20% discount to book even after a steep $41m write‐down in the value of its investment properties in FY Mar10. The capital values of industrial properties in Singapore have since recovered from the global financial crisis. AA-REIT’s gearing ratio is comfortable at 35%, with no near‐term refinancing need. Any further write‐down is unlikely. That AA-REIT is still trading at a discount to its peers is likely due to its relatively small market capitalisation and turbulent history in 2009 which saw AMP Capital Investors and AIMS Financial Group emerging as Manager after a major equity cash call and asset injection.

Near‐term catalyst. Asset enhancement opportunities abound for AA-REIT as at least half of its 26 properties have plot ratios that are under-utilised. Capital recycling exercise is ongoing and the potential sale of its single asset in Japan could be a near‐term catalyst.

Technically, we could see the unit price of this REIT trading sideways for a few more weeks with support at 21.5c and resistance at 22.5c. It seems that a symmetrical triangle is forming and it would not surprise me if its unit price trades higher in 1Q2011. I bought more recently at 21.5c and I am in the queue to buy more.

First REIT: I bought some First REIT units at 69c today. This gives me a yield of 9.28% based on the annualised DPU of 6.4c for 2011.  The next support level is at 67c which is where we find the rising 200dMA. Going by the trading volume in the last two sessions as long black candles were formed, we could see 67c tested in the next session. I have entered my buy queue. Why am I so bold? Fundamentally, this is a REIT with a strong track record. Technically, buying at supports in an uptrend is the way to go.

Many could be holding off their purchases in spite of the attractive yield at current price levels. If my guess is correct, they are probably conserving their resources to apply for as many excess rights as possible. Why buy at 68.5c if we could get excess rights at 50c? They should remember, however, that how many excess rights we are likely to get depends probably on how many mother shares we hold in the first instance. Those who fail to get the excess rights they want could cause a strong bounce upwards for First REIT's unit price once the rights exercise is completed.

Golden Agriculture: Its price continues to defy gravity as it rose on low volume to break the previous high of 78.5c to close at 79c. Volume is the fuel which drives a rally. I question the sustainability of the recent levitation act. Of course, Mr. Market is always right and I could be proven wrong this time round and if it does happen, it won't be the first time.

Immediate support in case of a pull back is at 74c and I see strong support at 70c. The MACD has formed a lower low and it remains to be seen if it would form a lower high. The negative divergence between rising price and falling volume is still valid. However, the rising MFI and RSI show that momentum is positive and support is strong. Any pull back is probably a good opportunity to accumulate.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price closed lower at $1.92 on higher volume. All technicals point to a high probability of price moving even lower in the near future. Any rebound, however unlikely, would be a chance to reduce exposure. For shortists, rebounds could be salivating opportunities for them to make some money here.

Closing at $1.92 is at support provided by the 138.2% Fibo.  38.2%, being one of the 3 golden ratios, is quite strong and if it breaks, the other 2 golden ratios are 50% and 61.8%.  The 150% Fibo and 161.8% Fibo lines are at $1.88 and $1.85 respectively. If the selling pressure keeps up, we could see prices go to those levels. Then, I would be sorely tempted.

Sabana REIT: Closing at 93.5c is exactly where I mentioned that 138.2% Fibo line would be providing support. Selling pressure is not letting up although volume has reduced on this down day. It recorded the second lowest daily volume since the REIT started trading.  This should be a relief for unit holders.

Could it really test the 150% Fibo line at 92.5c? Your guess is as good as mine but that is where I have entered my BUY queue. Wish me luck.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Golden Agriculture, Sabana REIT.
First REIT
CapitaMalls Asia

First REIT: Nil-paid rights start trading.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

First REIT's nil-paid rights started its first day of trading at 22c but closed at 19.5c. This probably affected the mother share as First REIT was sold down to 70.5c. Why? Well, if we could buy the nil-paid rights at a bargain, why buy the mother share? Sell the mother share, buy the nil-paid rights and make some money on the difference.

So, if someone bought the nil-paid rights at 19.5c, including the 50c to be paid to exercise the rights, the total price is only 69.5c. Why should he pay 70.5c for the mother share?

Fundamentally, there is no compelling reason to sell below 70c as the yield is a handsome 9.14% at this price. However, if it does get sold down, I see immediate support at 69c which is where the rising 100dMA would be approximating soon. I might buy more then.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Cambridge Industrial Trust, Golden Agriculture, Healthway Medical and Sabana REIT.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

I know of a few who are waiting to collect more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 21.5c. With an estimated DPU of 2.08c in 2011, it would have a yield of 9.67% at 21.5c. Very attractive.

Technically, volume has been very thin and momentum has declined. The rising 100dMA is providing support at 21.5c and I doubt that this support would be compromised.  If it does break, the next support is at 21c which is where we find the rising 200dMA approximating in the next 2 or 3 weeks. An attractive passive income generator with limited downside for me, I hope to accumulate more at supports.

Cambridge Industrial Trust's charts look bad.  Since 22 October, volume has been higher on black candle days. In recent sessions, volume spiked as price broke the support provided by the 100dMA. The REIT is experiencing a rapid downtrend.

The 20dMA completed a dead cross with the 50dMA and is on course to form another dead cross with the 100dMA. The 50dMA is beginning to turn down. The MACD continues its decline below the signal line in negative territory. Momentum is clearly negative. The OBV shows heavy distribution going on.

The preferential offering last month to existing unit holders at 53.1c was unattractive and closing at 52c today, unit holders would have lost money on those units. The rising 200dEMA should provide immediate support at 50.5c in case of continuing selling pressure.

Golden Agriculture formed a wickless white candle, closing at 77c. Could it retest its high of 78.5c?  I will wait to see if the MACD and MFI are able to form higher highs. Unless volume expands significantly, the MFI is more likely to form a lower high.

I maintain that the negative divergence is a warning of a possible pull back and it could be a strong one. So, I will remain cautious.

Healthway Medical's positive divergence is still in play and the MFI has formed a higher low and seems on track to form a higher high. Immediate resistance at 15c. Overcoming this could see price test 16c, the resistance provided by the declining 50dMA.

Sabana REIT's volume expanded today as it formed a wickless black candle to close lower at 94c, indicating that further price weakness is expected. Judging by the bearish attitude Mr. Market has towards this counter, I have decided to put in my buy queue at 92.5c, support provided by the 150% Fibo line, 50% being one of the three golden ratios.

At 92.5c and an annualised DPU of 8.63c for 2011, yield would be about 9.33%. Not too bad.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q FY2011.
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Equity fund raising again.
Genting SP: A rebound or a reversal?
Golden Agriculture: Levitation act.
Healthway Medical: Support at 15c broke.
Sabana REIT: Fundamental Analysis.

Sabana REIT, Golden Agriculture, First REIT and K-Green Trust.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Sabana REIT retested its low of 96c today. To top it off, it closed at 96c. Distribution activity continues for the seventh straight session. This is quite obvious when we look at the OBV. I said before that I could consider getting some if the yield is greater than 9%. Technically, if 96c gives way, the 123.6% Fibo line is at 94.5c and the 138.2% is at 93.5c. I might buy some at those levels.

Golden Agriculture formed an inverted black hammer today, closing at 74c after moving higher in the day. This is a bearish development. I remain wary of the negative divergence between price and volume. I would like to see the uptrend support retested and that is when I might add to my position.  This is currently at 70c.

First REIT's trading volume has been declining as price stayed at and above the immediate support at 73.5c. The momentum oscillators are positive and the MACD is rising above the signal line in positive territory. All very nice but as volume dwindles, we have to be wary. If we had missed loading up earlier, loading up now at 73.5c carries a higher risk, technically speaking, even though the uptrend is intact.

Immediate support at 73.5c with the next support at 71.5c and this is also where we find the rising 20dMA. Looking back, this counter has a history of relying on the 20dMA for support as it moved higher. So, buying at the 20dMA is safer.

K-Green Trust broke its immediate support at $1.04 and touched a low of $1.03. Immediate resistance is now at $1.06 while we could see the low of $1 achieved on 1 July retested. All the momentum oscillators are downtrending. The declining OBV suggests continual distribution taking place. I had originally thought of buying more at $1 but I might want to wait for clearer signs of a reversal before taking action now.

Related posts:
Sabana REIT: Fundamental analysis.
Golden Agriculture: Levitation act.
First REIT: XR and fair value.
K-Green Trust: A bad investment?

Genting SP: A rebound or a reversal?

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Although I do not have any vested interest in Genting SP, I remain deeply interested in this highly liquid, highly volatile counter.

On 24 Nov, I mentioned that "We could see a rebound and if it does happen, resistance is at $2.10 which is where we find the 50dMA. Anyone who is thinking of reducing exposure could consider doing so here. After all, price goes down a river of hope and rarely in a straight line." In the last session, Genting SP closed at $2.09 after touching a high of $2.13.

The volume which accompanied the rise in price was not impressive. With the 20dMA poised to form a dead cross with the 50dMA, there could be more downward pressure.  The white candle formed was with a long upper wick which suggests selling pressure beyond $2.09. The MACD has turned up but it is doing so in negative territory which suggests that what we have is just a rebound and not a reversal.

I have also drawn lines in orange color connecting the highs of 20 Sep and 9 Nov as well as the lows of 30 Sep and 10 Nov. Do you see a rising wedge? It seems that this pattern is valid and the downside target is at least $1.85. Of course, if the next session sees an expansion of volume as price rises up, this reading would be invalidated.

Tea with AK71: The price of my car now.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

The prices of cars in Singapore are still appreciating.

On 2 May, I mentioned that "in August last year, I convinced my mom to change her car" and "we decided on a Mitsubish Lancer Mivec 1.5 for $60k .....Guess what, it would cost her about $80k now to get the same Mitsubishi 9 months later!" Well, guess how much the same car would cost today? $87,988!

I blogged about buying a new car for myself on 1 August a few months ago. The "final price is $71k for a new Mazda 2 Sedan with leather seats and solar film." Guess how much it would cost today? Get ready for this really eye popping price tag: $96,988!

I am very happy to learn this but it is scary at the same time.  Talk about inflation!

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Buying a car now?
Tea with AK71: Bought a new car!

Golden Agriculture: Levitation act.

Golden Agriculture's fortunes are tied to the performance of Crude Palm Oil (CPO).  With CPO forming new highs, Golden Agriculture is likely to do better in time.  However, I remain wary of adding to my position as the price does a levitation act.

The negative divergence with price moving higher and volume shrinking is all too obvious. Having said this, the MFI has formed higher lows which suggests that there is support and demand is strengthening.  The lower highs on the RSI suggest that the buying momentum has been weakening.  So? Price has been moving up due to the lack of sellers and not an abundance of buyers.

Immediate support is a recently many times tested 71.5c. Stronger support is at 67c, the low of 24 Nov and that is also where we find the rising 50dMA. The longer term resistance of 61c should be the longer term support now.

Raffles Education: A new low.

Friday, December 3, 2010

What started out as a promising up day for the STI was not to be as the index sank almost 1% at closing.

In Singapore, share prices lost early gains to end weaker on Friday following concerns over interest rates. Traders said the market firmed with early gains in regional exchanges as strong US economic data boosted sentiment. But prices pulled back later after China said it would tighten monetary policy next year, suggesting further interest rate hikes to cap inflation.
Read article here.

My portfolio is largely unaffected except for a small long position I have in Raffles Education. This was something I purchased a couple of months ago in early October as I identified a positive divergence between the rising MACD and the falling price on the daily chart. A reader at the time suggested that I could be a bit slow in identifying that divergence and it turned out that he was right.

26c looked promising as a possible double bottom with volume on 3 Sep, when 26c was first touched, very high but volume had been very low when 26c was retested recently. A picture of low volume pull back was also rather clear. Well, today's expansion in volume took out 26c and threw a spanner in the works. 26c was just a floor.

Do I see price falling further? Price touched a low of 25c and this is where we find the 138.2% Fibo line before closing at 25.5c. This could be another floor and should provide interim support. The MFI and RSI have been forming lower highs, suggesting a reduction in demand and buying momentum. However, they are both in negative territory now which could give pause to the selling momentum.

Would I sell now and take a 10% loss? Let us look at the weekly chart.

Since early June 2009 when the counter hit a high of 70c, trading volume has been declining as price retreated. As each floor (support) was broken, the trading volume became lower. The MACD has also been gently rising since mid December 2009 as price continued in its downtrend.

To talk about a reversal is surely early days yet but the signs are that further downside could well be limited. When all the would be sellers have sold, we could see a reversal of fortunes. In the meantime, a long term downtrend is still in force and this is not for the faint hearted.

So, I would not sell my small (money losing) stake in the company. Also, I tend to overlook counters which I am not vested in. Stay invested and I would continue to monitor the company.

Related post:
Raffles Education: A trading opportunity.

USA is back on a growth path.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Warren Buffett sent an open letter to the U.S. government recently thanking it for a job well done:

"Uncle Sam, you delivered... overall your actions were remarkably effective."

Warren Buffett thinks that the stimulus money and bailouts worked. Well, there is finally hard evidence that the U.S.A. is back on a growth path. This is taken from Yahoo!Finance:

“In October we were able to rule out this double-dip nightmare scenario,” he says. “We are able to see very clearly, with a good deal of conviction, a revival in growth,” Achuthan tells Aaron and Dan in this clip. The improvements are widespread, Achuthan says.

-- Profit growth and productivity are on the rise. Achuthan says that leads to more hiring and capital investment in equipment.

-- Housing has stabilized. The outlook may not be rosy, but “it’s not falling off a new cliff,” which means it’s not a drag.

-- Cheap capital as a result of low interest rates. The private sector continues to create jobs.

-- Pent-up demand. Thanks to the jump in jobs, people are less afraid of losing their positions, Achuthan suggests. And after two years of saving and worrying, consumers have “frugality fatigue” which is beginning to show in the improvements in holiday shopping data.

Posted Dec 01, 2010 03:50pm EST by Peter Gorenstein

This bodes well for U.S.A.'s trading partners like Singapore.

Related posts:
Comments on the US economy.
The US consumers are back!

First REIT: XR and fair value.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A friend called me yesterday and said he might buy into First REIT with a view of getting more excess rights. I gave him my full support and told him he is likely to make money in this exercise. It turned out that he didn't get any yesterday.

Assuming that he had bought 4 lots at 98.5c /unit, his average price including rights units would be:

98.5 x 4 + 50c x 5  /9 = 71.55c /unit

At the estimated annualised DPU of 6.4c for 2011, it would mean a yield of 8.94%.  Not bad.  If he managed to get 1 lot of excess rights later on, the average price would be 69.4c which means a yield of 9.22%! I like this.

My expectation is for the REIT to trade closer to an 8% yield.  That means I expect the REIT to trade closer to 80c per unit with the estimated annualised DPU revised upwards to 6.4c for 2011.

I had people asking me if they should sell their First REIT units when it went CR. My advice to them was to keep the units and to accept and pay for their rights.  The proposed acquisitions and rights issue is a good thing for existing unit holders: a strong yield on investment with a good chance of capital gains.  Of course, there were still some who sold which allowed me to buy more at 95c /unit.

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that I did not see any reason why the REIT should trade below the TERP of 70c, XR, and if it did, I would buy more. Today, it touched 70c only to bounce higher. It closed at 73.5c after touching a high of 74c. Congratulations to fellow unit holders!

Allow me a little indulgence as this is something I have always wanted to do:

Rating: BUY.
Fair value: 80c/unit.

Related posts:
First REIT: Rights issue.
First REIT: Bought more at 95c.

Starhub, CapitaMalls Asia and CitySpring.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

A reader asked me what's happening to Starhub and another one asked me what's happening to CapitaMalls Asia. The recent price weakness must be spooky for quite a few investors.

Starhub's uptrend is clearly broken. The support at 20dMA broke five sessions ago and closing at $2.63 today on high volume looks ominous as a long black candle was formed. $2.63 is where we find the rising 50dMA. Could we see price bouncing off the 50dMA? We could but there is no clear sign of a reversal. So, if price bounces off the 50dMA, it could be just that: a bounce.

The MFI has been forming lower highs and in a rebound, we could see it testing its downtrend resistance which approximates 50% which itself is a natural resistance.  If the MACD continues to descend towards zero, we could see it crossing into negative territory. We could see price testing the 100dMA as support then. Using Fibo lines as a guage, $2.51 is also where we find the 161.8% Fibo line. It would take a brave person to go long at this point in time. Immediate resistance at $2.72.

CapitaMalls Asia's share price closed below $2.00 once more. A long black candle was formed on high volume as price closed at $1.97. Will this counter test its low of $1.91 touched on 7 May 10? With all the momentum oscillators trending down, it could.

Time to go long? I don't think so. I would let the downtrend run its course and wait for clearer signs of a reversal. Watch out, in the meantime, for signs of stabilisation. See if the candlesticks start moving inwards away from the lower Bollinger.

I fully divested my investment in CitySpring, an investment which I have long regarded as a mistake, in early October. Kim Eng has downgraded the trust to a SELL now: Kim Eng Securities downgrades Cityspring Infrastructure Trust to Sell from Hold, cuts target price to $0.52 from $0.62 on prospect of lower distribution payouts, dilution risks.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Uptrend broken.
CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Thoughts on divestment.

An award for ASSI.

I have abstracted the following from an email received today:

Dear AK71,

Congratulations! Angela here, and your blog, A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor, is an essential part of our resources!

As a website dedicated to help those consider a career in accounting, we only provide the best information available. Whether it's a resource that helps you understand finance, or provides insight on what to invest in, we provide them for those seeking to obtain this information. This is why we've featured your blog, as it is one of the best to teach our readers.

Please do not hesitate to call or email if you have any questions. Again, congratulations, and keep up the awesome work!

Angela Turner

This is a happy development and I would like to thank all readers for the spreading the word.

Healthway Medical: Support at 15c broke.

Monday, November 29, 2010

The counter closed at 14.5c today. Remember I mentioned that support is at 15c. Well, that broke today but it did not look to me like a convincing flush downwards as the volume sold down at 14.5c was very light and in fact, it was a one lot sell down at closing which caused the counter to close at 14.5c today.

I am wary of being whipsawed out. With the MACD hugging the signal line, this counter could go either way. However, with a picture of low volume pull back intact, comparing the high volume sell downs in mid October, when support at 16c was broken, to the current thin trading volume, the suggestion is that most of the weaker holders have been shaken out.  This does not mean that the price could not go lower.

I like to look at the weekly chart for more clues when the near term charts get a bit hazy. The picture of low volume pull back is reinforced in the weekly chart. Believe it or not, the counter's longer term uptrend is still intact. The MFI and RSI have both formed higher lows recently. These form positive divergences with the decline in the counter's share price. The MACD is still plunging into negative territory, however, and we could see price weakening further.

13.5c is a strong support, tested first in February, being underpinned by a rising 20wMA then. It was tested again in May, being underpinned by a rising 50wMA then. This time round, 13.5c could be tested once more as support and it would be underpinned by a rising 100wMA. So, we could see 14c tested soon if this pattern plays out.

China Hongxing: Rebounding.

China Hongxing's downtrend is still intact and there is no sign of any positive divergence to suggest that a reversal is at hand. However, price goes down a river of hope and we are seeing a rebound.

Although a white candle was formed today, it was on the back of relatively low volume. The lower highs on the MFI shows declining demand. However, with it and the RSI in negative territories, we could have a respite. I see resistance at 16c in case the rebound continues as that was a support which broke on 22 Nov and could be the near term resistance now.

It pays to remember that 15.5c was itself a strong support which broke and it is where we find the gently declining 200dMA. It could prove a challenge to overcome this resistance level unless volume expands meaningfully on buy ups.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Testing support.

$50k in annual passive income: Year end status.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

The last time I wrote about my attempt to achieve an annual passive income of at least $50k was on 5 Sep when I concluded that "With Saizen REIT's contribution, I would probably exceed the target I have set for myself which is "to create a minimum of $50k in annual passive income from investments in the stock market alone."  I shared this aim here in my blog on 27 Feb 2010, more than half a year ago. Like with everything, however, this needs confirmation. Let us see what happens in December 2010." Read blog post here.

For quite some time now, my focus has been on my top three investments when I talk about building a reliable stream of passive income from the stock market.  They are Saizen REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and LMIR.

One of my friends told me that this is inaccurate since I do not include dividends received from my other investments in the stock market such as First REIT, Suntec REIT and SPH. I must admit that I have not been fastidious that way. However, my investments in other counters are so dwarfed by my top three investments that, for the sake of simplicity, I have excluded them. Also, funds from the complete divestment of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust and Cambridge Industrial Trust as well as the privatisation of Hyflux Water Trust have largely been redeployed to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Saizen REIT.

So, for this blog post, again, I will just focus on my top three investments to see if I have managed to hit the said target. I don't think we need to wait till December to see how things will turn out since both LMIR and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT have declared their final distributions for the year.

Saizen REIT

Saizen REIT's next income distribution is in March 2011. I overlooked the fact that this REIT pays half-yearly. So, without any contribution from Saizen REIT in December, I would probably not be able to hit the $50k target this year.

Also, my estimate of an annualised 1.6c DPU for Saizen REIT was somewhat optimistic earlier in Sep and it was partly premised on the successful re-financing of YK Shintoku. A more realistic annualised DPU is probably about 1.2c if YK Shintoku's loan was refinanced successfully sooner than later. This is after learning at the AGM that continual divestment of properties in YK Shintoku is necessary in order for refinancing to be viewed more favourably by potential lenders. For me, this means a reduction of 25% in estimated passive income from this investment.

Needless to say, such a reduction is not helpful towards achieving the annual passive income target I have set but in absolute dollar terms, I still expect this REIT to contribute a lion's share of my passive income for 2011.

Read my comments here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT

This REIT had a successful rights issue recently which made its existing unitholders somewhat richer. I was very pleased with the rights issue and I have not sold any of my rights units exercised at 15.5c as they will enjoy a yield of 13.4% in 2011 when the annualised DPU of 2.08c kicks in. Of course, trading at 22.5c a unit now, I have a handsome 45% capital gain (on paper) for these rights units as well.

However, the last income distribution came in weaker at DPU of 0.3968c. In my blog post of 29 Oct, I said, "This is because of the issue of 513.3 million rights units on 14 October 2010 and 7.2 million units to the Manager on 19 October 2010 for payment of the acquisition fee in relation to the acquisition of 27 Penjuru Lane. Distributable income from 27 Penjuru Lane would be included in the next distribution, not this one, since the acquisition was done in 3Q FY2011 and not in 2Q FY2011."  Read blog post here.

Of course, this does not change the fact that the lower DPU this time round (payable in December) is not going to help me hit my passive income target this year.


Although I am still somewhat disappointed with the management, this REIT is a stable passive income generator. Their latest DPU of 1.09c is marginally higher than the previous quarter's 1.04c.  This is largely in line with my expectations, that "I expect the S$ to appreciate more robustly in future and it is unlikely that the DPU would reduce much more.  Conservatively, I estimate the DPU to be 1c per quarter or 4c per year from December 2010." Read blog post here.

Obviously, at a more conservative estimate of 4c DPU per annum, this is 20% lesser than the 5c DPU I was expecting at the start of the year.

So, based purely on these three investments, I have come up short this year with regards to my annual passive income target in the stock market.

Important development:

Recently, I have been buying more units of First REIT with a view that their recently announced acquisitions and rights issue are attractive propositions which would provide a distribution yield of 9% in 2011. Including the rights which I am entitled to and which I fully intend to accept and pay for, First REIT would rival LMIR as my third largest investment in the stock market.

So, from 1 Jan 2011, I will include dividends collected from First REIT in my calculations towards the target of $50k in annual passive income. I will continue to share my results here in my blog. Wish me luck.

Related posts:
A minimum of $50k in annual passive income.
First REIT: Rights issue.
Recent purchases: First REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Healthway Medical.

Tea with AK71: A moving bathtub and fridge!

Saturday, November 27, 2010

This was taken when I was driving along Scotts Road towards Ion Orchard.  At the traffic junction, I spotted this truck which must have belonged to a contractor doing some renovation work. It had sacks of stuff and on top of these sacks was balanced a fridge and on top of the fridge was a bathtub! 

Very dangerous! No one followed too closely behind the truck. What if the strappings came loose and the bathtub slid down the sacks like a ski slope?

Sabana REIT: Fundamental analysis.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Sabana REIT closed at $1.02 and touched a low of 97c at one point today. After the rather strong performance by MIT and GLP on debut not so long ago, the unenthusiastic response to Sabana REIT on its first day of trading by market participants was somewhat surprising. Let us do an analysis of the REIT and whether it is a good investment at the current price.

Sabana REIT has an aggregate leverage of 26.5% which is comfortable but bear in mind that a Shariah compliant REIT cannot lever beyond 35% while other REITs are quite comfortable levering to 45%. Its NAV per unit is 99c. So, it is trading at a slight premium to NAV and at 97c, the low of the day, it was only at a slight discount to NAV.

The total GFA of all its properties is 3,286,220 sq ft.  Its largest property which has a GFA of 810,710 sq ft has a remaining lease of 45 years. The rest of its properties have remaining leases of between 22 and 72 years. Three properties have remaining leases of 31 years or less and their combined GFA is 706,055 sq ft. Nothing irregular here. Although close to a quarter of its GFA would come to an end in 31 years or less, it does not seem worrisome at this point in time.

The REIT has an occupancy rate of near 100%. This is a good thing but it also means that there is little room to increase occupancy and revenue through renting out more space. 59.5% of its leases (by revenue) will expire in 2013 while the rest would expire in 2015. So, income should remain predictably stable till 2013.

The REIT will distribute 100% of its taxable income till 31 Dec 2012. Thereafter, at least 90% of taxable income will be distributed. Income distributions will be made quarterly to unitholders.

The estimated annualised DPU for 2011 is 8.63c and for 2012 is 8.67c. These represent yields of 8.22% and 8.25% respectively based on the IPO price of $1.05 per unit.

I believe that we have a fair offer here in Sabana REIT. Although I would rather invest in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which offers an annualised DPU of 2.08c for 2011 which would translate to a yield of 9.24% at a unit price of 22.5c, investing in Sabana REIT could provide some safety through diversification.

One thing that worries me is the lack of a track record of Sabana REIT's manager whereas AIMS is an old hand at managing REITs and Mr. George Wang's achievements are impressive. So, would I invest in Sabana REIT? If price weakens further, I might just buy some.

View prospectus here.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: IPO at $1.05/share.

Recent purchases: First REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Healthway Medical.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

It is a wet evening and the stock market wasn't all that inspiring either. So, I decided to look at what I have bought recently and how they are doing.

First REIT
I bought some at 95c and again at 96.5c. Volume expanded today as price closed at 97c. It looks as if the rising 20dMA is pushing the price higher. Of course, FA proponents would say that the CR status is causing its unit price to stay bouyant which I believe too.

At the purchase price of 95c, my average price would be 95c x 4 + 50c x 5 /9 = 70c.  DPU of 6.4c in 2011 means a distribution yield of 9.14%.  At the purchase price of 96.5c, my average price would be 96.5 x 4 + 50c x 5 /9 =70.67c. Distribution yield would be 9.06%. Pretty attractive.

If I were to be successful in my excess rights application, the distribution yield would improve, of course. I am actually somewhat tempted to buy more. I might put myself in the buy queue at 96c which is where we find the rising 20dMA now.

However, a word of caution from the TA side: the MACD has formed a lower high while price formed a higher high on 9 Nov. This is a negative divergence and price could come down in time. Of course, we know that date is probably 1 Dec when the counter goes XR. Although I do not see any reason why it would trade below the TERP of 70c, it could.  If it does, I would buy more. Simple.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
I bought more of this REIT and I blogged about it recently on 23 Nov. At 21.5c and an annualised DPU of 2.08c in 2011, the distribution yield of my latest purchase is 9.67%. This is very attractive to me. I am in the buy queue at 21c as well but with the rising 100dMA providing support at 21.5c, the chances of price going down to 21c aren't all that high.

Of course, with the MACD dipping into negative territory, we could see momentum remaining weak. Stochastics has similarly dipped into negative territory. Overall, the suggestion is that although we might not see much upside in the near future, the downside is similarly limited.  This is a great investment for anyone who is investing for income.

Healthway Medical
Although I have told myself before that I do not have to trade the market anymore and I could just sit back while waiting for dividends to come in from my investments, I just could not resist buying some Healthway Medical shares when I saw the positive divergence between price and MACD. I blogged about it on 22 Nov.

Well, it still looks rather promising. Volume is drying up as price consolidates at 15c. Immediate resistance is at 15.5c as provided by the 20dMA. Breaking this would give us an immediate target of 16.5c.  17c is where we find the downtrend resistance while 18.5c is the eventual target if the potential double bottom is a valid pattern. Now, if the downtrend resistance remains unbroken, there could be more downside to come. So, my strategy is to divest at resistance. This is purely a trade.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Prime for a rebound?

MBLM, Genting SP and Healthway Medical.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Walked a lot this evening after having dinner with a friend at MBLM. Yes, it is my new favourite mall.  So quiet, cool, clean and the service staff are all so friendly. Again, I was given free parking for 4 hours and so, I took a walk to MBS and, boy, that place was a ghost town.  Salespeople were looking at me expectantly as I walked past some of the shops. I felt bad almost for just being there.

Now, my legs have a nice mildly aching feeling from so much walking and I am feeling very sleepy. So, just a short post tonight before I hit the sack.

Genting SP
Formed a short white candle today. We could see a rebound and if it does happen, resistance is at $2.10 which is where we find the 50dMA. Anyone who is thinking of reducing exposure could consider doing so here. After all, price goes down a river of hope and rarely in a straight line.

With the 20dMA turning down and seemingly set to do a dead cross with the 50dMA, there could be more downside to come. After all, the momentum oscillators are downtrending but being oversold or bordering on oversold, we could see the formation of a floor. This floor could be at $1.85 if price resumes its downward trajectory.

Healthway Medical
In my blog post last night, I mentioned that the jury is still out on this one. The positive divergence I saw a couple of days ago is still in play.

The MACD histogram has turned green again. There is a struggle going on but with the MFI and RSI going generally higher, momentum has turned up. Even the OBV has turned up today, suggesting an increase in accumulation activity. If a rebound happens, first resistance is at 16.5c, the neckline of a potential double bottom formation, with an eventual target at 18c if the double bottom pattern is valid.

This short blog post has taken me longer than usual to complete: 50 minutes! My brain is working at 50% this evening. Good night and good luck!

Related post:
Tea with AK71: A day at MBLM.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Saizen REIT, Genting SP, China Hongxing, Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

There is much talk about the military confrontation in the Korean peninsula which took place today. Could this be the reason why the STI sank 2%? Fear is in the air?

Seoul (The Korea Herald/ANN) - North Korea fired dozens of coastal artillery shells, some of which fell on the South's Yeonpyaong Island near the tense western inter-Korean border, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday.

"The North fired dozens of artillery rounds from its Gaemeori western coastal artillery base at 14:34 p.m. In response to the military provocations, we fired back dozens of rounds with K9 self-propelled howitzers," JCS spokesman Col. Lee Bung-woo told reporters.

In the artillery firing, one soldier was killed and four marine solider were seriously injured. The military was trying to evacuate civilians on the island near the border. Several civilians were reported to have suffered injuries.
Read full story here.

I would keep calm and question how would the events affect my investments. As far as I could see, my investments are relatively unscathed. If there should be some irrational selling down, I could buy more. Let us look at some counters:

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
The recent buying up of units in this REIT at 22.5c and 23c evaporated today. On 25 Oct, I mentioned that "A reader asked if I managed to get more at 22c today. No, I didn't. I am waiting at 21.5c." Today, I got what I have been waiting for. My overnight buy queue at 21.5c was filled.

Fundamentally, there is no reason for a weakening of price here. Technically, it could weaken and I decided to wait and it paid off. Now, could it weaken further and I know for a fact that someone in LP's infamous cbox is waiting to buy at 1 bid lower than my purchase price today.

21c looks like a many times tested resistance of an earlier base formation and this could be a strong support if price ever goes that low. I would buy more then. In fact, I am already in the buy queue. The MACD is testing its own trendline support and I would be surprised if price goes much lower.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulation price?

Saizen REIT
This REIT's unit price has been showing some resilience lately which leads me to believe that most of the people who would sell at 15.5c have sold. Despite a rather large sell down of more than 5,000 lots today, unit price remained at 16c. I believe that is a sign of strength.

Looking at the chart, it seems that 16.5c is the upper limit of the Bollinger bands and at 16c, this REIT is trading above all the daily MAs except the 200dMA. I like the rising MACD. All the daily MAs are coming together, bunching together, creating much tension. One day, the spring would have to uncoil.

Genting SP
A friend has money tied up here and I am sure quite a few readers too including someone who wrote recently that he gave up on Saizen REIT and shifted his money into Genting SP instead. On 18 Nov, I mentioned that "If price does not recapture the 50dMA as support, immediate support is at $2 with the next support after that at $1.85."

The support at $2 cracked today and it looked, for a few moments, as if it could just cling on but the bears proved too strong and a wickless black candle was formed as price closed at $1.95 on high volume. $2 could now be resistance. The gap down on 12 Nov was indeed a bad omen.

With the 20dMA turning down and the MACD dipping into negative territory, we could see a further weakening of price here. $1.85 as a support could be tested in due course. Since peaking on 9 Nov, OBV has been in decline which suggests that distribution is ongoing. This could exert further downward pressure on the share price.

China Hongxing
The support provided by the 200dMA has been taken out and price closed at 14.5c. If 14.5c fails to hold, we could see support at 13c tested in due course. 13c was the neckline of the double bottom formed in June/July and should be a stronger support.

MFI could be testing its uptrend support soon. RSI and Stochastics are both in oversold region. However, the MACD histogram's buy signal has been negated.  It would be prudent to wait for clearer signs of a reversal before wading into a long position here, especially with the support at 200dMA compromised.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Testing support.

Healthway Medical
Technically, the picture remains largely the same. However, the buy signal on the MACD histogram has been negated. Volume remains low and there was some selling down at 15c, the floor identified earlier.

Immediate resistance is at 15.5c which is also where the 20dMA is approximating. The jury is still out on this one.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Prime for a rebound?

Golden Agriculture
On 18 Nov, I said "I still see a negative divergence between price and volume. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line but being in positive territory, it suggests that the retreat in price could just be a correction. In such a case, we could see price weakening further to 65c, the next major support, if the support at 70c fails to hold up."

Support at 70c was taken out convincingly today. The MACD continues to decline, pulling away below the signal line although still in positive territory. MFI and RSI have been forming lower highs.  All suggest that positive momentum is declining. 65c support could be tested sooner rather than later. Buy at 65c? As a hedge, sure. If 65c breaks, the next support is at 61c.

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