Tea with AK71: Feeling nostalgic.

Suddenly feeling nostalgic and I kind of remember that I lent the CDs to a friend. Not sure. The internet is a wonderful thing.  I found the songs on YouTube. Well, they are probably not everyone's cup of tea.  It's just like I don't really like Earl Grey.  Hahaha... For those who share the same taste as me, take a break and enjoy the songs.

A close friend:


Breaking up:


True love is like this:


On that steadfast note, have a great week ahead!

A correction? An opportunity!

With the significant selldown of the US markets last friday, what will happen to the STI? There are proponents of the decoupling theory and that the STI now takes its lead from the HSI and the SSE instead of the Dow.  So, maybe, the STI will be spared? Let's take a look at the STI's chart.

The STI closed at 2974.61 last, forming a spinning top. This indicates indecision. Indecision as the index is trying to move higher?  No good.  To be sure, the STI is in a down channel and has been so since mid April. The MACD has been declining and is pulling away from the signal line. The MFI has been forming lower highs. All looking very bearish.

The 20dMA which served as support until three sessions ago is now at 2,980. To resume the uptrend, the STI has to re-capture this support.  However, seeing how it failed in its attempt in the last session, this is looking less likely. Instead, a continuing move downwards is more probable.  The Bollinger bands are squeezing and this suggests an impending increase in volatility of the index.

One bright spot, the OBV turned up sharply in the last session. This suggests that there is strong accumulation activity even as the buying momentum declined.  In other words, there is some underlying support.  So, any decline in the STI should meet with some support as people who have missed out on the rally earlier buy on weakness.

In the event of a continuing move downwards, the rising 50dMA provides support at 2,900 while the rising 100dMA provides support at 2,860. I see a strong support at the 2,790 level (previously a strong resistance).  Yes, there is a chance that the STI might go that low.  Never say never, right?

I would refrain from purchasing any stocks for now, especially index linked stocks. Wait and see.

Related post:
Markets are going higher in time.

Looking for value.

After learning TA, I tried applying it and I have made and lost money. I think I am not very good as a trader since I must have lost more than I made. My roots are in FA but it was only during this recent crisis that I beefed it up. I believe that my current style of combining FA and TA is most suitable for me.

The thing about FA is that we are looking for value. We want to buy something valued at $1 for 50c, for example, but that, to anyone who has been practising FA for sometime, is too simplistic. Let us not dwell on that for now in order to push this post forward.

When we buy something based on FA, the chances of us being disciplined and to hold on, riding through rough patches, are higher. This is because our knowledge of the fundamentals of the stock anchors us down.  We are less likely to be flighty. Personally, I need that kind of anchor. That was how I had the mental strength to hold on to Healthway Medical when some gave up.  The story is here.

I am not a good trader because I don't like to cut loss and if I do cut loss, I hurt.  I am not without emotions and I don't like feeling hurt.

I am not a good trader because I feel half clothed not knowing the fundamentals of a company.  I feel like I am looking through lens with cataracts.

A clear picture of a company's fundamentals is important for me.  I would buy into a company that is undervalued or even fairly valued as long as I see potential given the circumstances in the present and what is foreseeable in the future.

For anyone who wants to look for value in companies, start by reading up on financial statements. As good a place to start as any is here. Economics and the industry the company is found in are important considerations too. Not everyone enjoys FA just like how not everyone is a good trader.  We have to find our own niche. Whatever our choice, remember that there is no free lunch in this world.

Related posts:
Portfolio strategy: Undervalued high yield counters.
High yields: Successes, failures and the in betweens.
-------------------------------------
The "Woodstock of Capitalism": An Insiders' View
Posted Apr 30, 2010 07:30am EDT by Heesun Wee



A 'powerful' sermon. Matthews says the Q&A session is a highlight for him -- watching both Buffett and Munger apply their guiding principles to each, individual question...."Do the right thing. Look for value. And buy and hold" is their message, Matthews says. But, "it's the difference between reading a sermon on paper and actually hearing it in person. It's very powerful....

Tea with AK71: Buying a car now?

My current car is almost 5 years old.  It is a Mazda 6 2.0 and was purchased at a price of $80k.  I intend to drive it for a few more years since it is still virtually trouble free.

However, out of curiosity, I went to check if I could still buy a new Mazda 6 2.0 for $80k today.  Wow!  I was shocked to find out that $80k could only get me a Mazda 2 1.5 today, not even a Mazda 3 1.6.  I have heard from people, in recent weeks, how much new cars have gone up in price in Singapore but this is kind of scary.

I went to check on the Mercedes Benz A160 which was a car I was recommended to buy many years ago at $99k but I thought it pricey.  The A160 is no longer available but the A180 is almost $130k if I want to buy one! I like this video:

In August last year, I convinced my mom to change her car as her then 3 years old KIA Magentis 2.0 had many problems and the workshop quoted a repair cost of almost $3k after her car's three years warranty lapsed!  The car loan was fully paid up by then and I advised her that the $3k saved from repairing the KIA could go towards paying for a new car. 

We decided on a Mitsubish Lancer Mivec 1.5 for $60k and deregistered the KIA for $20k.  We only had to pay a balance of $40k.  Guess what, it would cost her about $80k now to get the same Mitsubishi 9 months later!

Very rarely do we make money from buying cars but my mom did (well, by saving money). $20k.  No small change.  Makes me wonder if I should have changed my car at the same time she did.  ;-)

You might be interested in this post:
Grow your wealth and beat inflation.

Japan's domestic consumption strengthens.

Japanese Shoppers to Spend More, Credit Suisse Says 
By Masaki Kondo and Akiko Ikeda

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese service providers and other companies reliant on domestic demand will benefit from increasing consumption, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

An improving job market and a demographic shift in the workplace are likely to boost spending, Credit Suisse’s chief Japan economist Hiromichi Shirakawa, said in an interview yesterday. As the nation ages, there are more opportunities for young people, he said.

Complete article here.



Japan Spending, Wages Rise as Prices Slump 13th Month
By Aki Ito and Keiko Ujikane

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s household spending, wages and job openings increased, while consumer prices tumbled for a 13th straight month, signaling a sustained recovery that’s still not strong enough to end deflation.

Today’s statistics were released hours before Bank of Japan policy makers are scheduled to announce their decision on monetary policy. Board members must decide whether to step up their efforts to contain price declines by expanding a 20 trillion yen ($212 billion) lending program. The bank is forecast to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero.

“The economy’s recovery is steadily continuing,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, chief economist at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. Even so, “deflationary pressures are still deep- seated in the economy,” he said.

Household outlays rose 4.4 percent in March from a year earlier, the biggest gain since May 2004, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. Consumer prices excluding fresh food slid 1.2 percent from a year earlier. Wages advanced 0.8 percent, the first increase in 22 months, the Labor Ministry said.

Read complete article here.

Related posts:
Japan's debt issue and Saizen REIT.
Japan's recovery accelerating.
Replies from AK71: Japan's economy.
Buy Japanese real estate.

The EU and Asia.

I remember reading as an undergrad that artificial countries will never work out.  Good examples are the former Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia.  We can never integrate people and their spaces together with other people and their spaces if they are different culturally.  We need very strong leaders to hold such constructs together.

In recent times, we saw problems in China with Tibet and Indonesia with Timor. Now, the problem which is more glaring is the EU. The EU is different in that it is made up of different countries.  These countries have given up their own currencies to embrace a common currency.  This, effectively, surrenders some of the individual countries' control over their economic destinies. This is probably a reason why Baroness Margaret Thatcher, then Prime Minister, refused to have the UK join the EU.

In The Straits Times on 29 April, I read with concern as an article reported that there is little danger to Asia because of our little trade exposure to the EU.  It said that the EU consumes 19.8% of China's exports, 12.4% of Korea's, 11.9% of Japan's, 11.9% of Thailand's, 10.3% of Taiwan's and just 4.9% of Singapore's.  These numbers are based on a 12 month average ending March.

What should be considered, in my opinion, is the missing multiplier effect. If China loses 19.8% of her export market in any substantial way, we can imagine them importing less from other countries and this will impact other countries' trade figures in total.  Same goes for Japan, Korea and also Singapore.  The fallout will have earth moving consequences for us in Asia.

Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to the EU's problems, it would seem.

Blame Germany, Galbraith Says:
"Extreme Brinkmanship" Imperils Europe
Posted Apr 30, 2010 03:43pm EDT by Aaron Task



In sum, the Greek bailout may alleviate the immediate crisis but is far from a "permanent solution," the economist says. European officials will be "fighting fires continuously until they address the constitutional problem" of the EU.

Tea with AK71: Nightmare at Bugis.

I remember people complaining about not being able to get a seat on the MRT trains when I was an undergrad which was when the MRT was still quite a young system in Singapore.  I was also young and didn't mind standing in the trains since most of my rides were to commute between Tiong Bahru (the nearest station to my flat) and Clementi (to take a bus to the Uni) which are only a few stops apart.

Not long after I started working about 15 years ago, I started driving.  Over the years, I observed the increasingly crowded condition of our roads and I complained about it. Driving was beginning to be stressful.

One day, not too long ago, I decided to take the MRT train and give my car a break and do some good for the environment by reducing my carbon footprint etc.  Actually, it was more to give myself a break as I thought that taking the train would be less stressful than driving. I told myself that Tiong Bahru is just a few stations to Bugis, which is true, and I wouldn't have to worry about terrible drivers, red lights and parking.

The waiting time for the train was about 3 minutes.  I must have missed the earlier train just.  That was fine.  When the train came, it was packed!  Wow!  I am now a bit thicker around the middle than I was back in school but I managed to squeeze myself into the train.  I felt like a sardine in a can. The discomfort was made worse by the coming in and going out of passengers at the next few stations.

When the train got to Bugis, I got out in relief only to be greeted by an absolute nightmare.  The station was packed! Wow, wow! There were two escalators where I was standing: one up and one down.  Both escalators were packed to capacity and people were trying to get onto them. When I managed to get on the upgoing escalator, I truly empathised with salmons swimming upstream! In less than an hour, I felt like a sardine and a salmon! A truly Singaporean experience?

The problem? The platform was very narrow (I am referring to the air conditioned space in between the two train tracks) as in there was little space compared to the crowd at the station. It reminded me of a local train station in Kyoto.  If you could imagine putting a small Kyoto train station in Tokyo or Osaka, you would be able to picture the chaos.  There and then, I told myself that I would never take the MRT train to Bugis again.  If there had been some sort of an emergency, many would be trampled to death in a stampede, I do not doubt.

It occurred to me that Bugis station was probably built without anticipating the recent burgeoning population in Singapore. It is also difficult to enlarge the platform since the train tracks would have to be moved outwards. The only way I think the situation could be improved without any major changes is to increase the number of escalators in the station.  This, I believe would improve the current situation tremendously.  This is one for the engineers.

Blog statistics: January to April 2010.

What started out of boredom and curiosity last Christmas Eve has become a passionate new hobby. I enjoy writing and I enjoy sharing my ideas. Blogging allows me to do both these things.  I am a happy man.

I am also happy to see that my blog has found support from an increasing number of people both in Singapore and beyond. I am sharing the numbers here with all of you.  You made these numbers possible.  Now, if only the prices of the shares I own would improve so rapidly as well. That would make me even happier.

Thank you very much for visiting, for reading and for those who left comments, thanks for that too. Have an enjoyable Labour Day long weekend.

Related post:
Unique visitors: Crossing the 40000 mark.

Japan's recovery accelerating, central bank says.

Exports driving Japan's economic recovery into higher gear, central bank says.

Tomoko A. Hosaka, Associated Press Writer, On Friday April 30, 2010, 5:07 am EDT

TOKYO (AP) -- Japan received a brighter assessment of its economic future Friday, with a key central bank report highlighting an accelerating recovery and easing price declines.

In its semiannual outlook, the Bank of Japan predicted that the world's second biggest economy would see faster growth this fiscal year, which began April 1, and a possible end to deflation within two years. Gross domestic product will probably expand 1.8 percent this year, the central bank said, better than its previous forecast of 1.3 percent.

The report credited robust growth in overseas markets, particularly in Asia, for fueling Japanese exports and production. Stock prices and corporate profits are up. That should boost capital expenditures and eventually lead to more jobs, higher wages and stronger domestic demand.

Read full article here.

Charts in brief: 30 April 10.

STI rises 0.5% to 2,974.61 at closing
Friday, 30 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Closing at $2.19 on high volume on a white candle day confirmed a reversal.  The MACD continues moving upwards towards the signal line and could form a bullish crossover if the momentum continues.  MFI has turned up sharply but is still in the oversold region.  OBV has turned up sharply indicating increased accumulation.  Immediate resistance is at $2.23 and $2.27.

AIMS AMP Capital Ind REIT: This is the second session in a row where price closed at 23c.  The 50dMA is crossing 100dMA to form a golden cross. MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  MFI continues to rise but is not overbought.  OBV continues to climb upwards in a steplike fashion. This counter is unlikely to rocket upwards in price but it is a steady performer with limited downside.

Golden Agriculture: Another black candle day on heavier volume, with price closing unchanged. MACD is still in decline while the MFI and OBV are flattish. This counter seems to be stuck in a slow drift downwards and it has been forming lower lows.

Courage Marine: Buying momentum is still on the retreat as the MACD continues to pull away from the signal line on the downside. MFI continues its decline. However, OBV has turned up which probably resulted in today's white candle. Volatility has reduced somewhat and the Bollinger bands are beginning to narrow.  22c has been established as the immediate support.

Saizen REIT: Very high volume sell down today as units traded at only one price, 16.5c. Technically, things look bearish.  The MACD continues to decline towards zero.  MFI has entered the oversold region.  OBV has gone below what I identified as a critical support. Momentum oscillators have not been so bearish in a while.

Although the uptrend is intact, continuing sell down might see the price pushed to as low as 15.5c, a support provided by the rising 200dMA. It seems that the declining 100wMA is creating a tempest.

Of course, Saizen REIT is announcing its results on 12 May. Would that provide a positive catalyst for price to leapfrog the 100wMA? We will just have to wait and see.


Related post:
Charts in brief: 29 April 10.

Tea with AK71: A piece of cake?

A couple of weeks ago, someone told me that he was thinking of putting some of his savings in the stock market.  He asked me how much should he put in. I asked him how much was he willing to lose. That stumped him and he looked puzzled. He went quiet and then, with that same puzzled look, asked me if I was not going to help him make money. Woah! Stop right there.  I decided to give him a history lesson there and then.  Question: Excuse me, are you an investor?

No one should ever enter the stock market thinking that he would only make money.  That must be the grandest delusion ever.  Don't ever get into the stock market if one thinks of only making a lot of money and not losing some (or a lot, for that matter). 

Entering the stock market is just like entering a relationship.  Don't ever get into one if one thinks that every relationship will have a nice "happily ever after" fairy tale ending.  There will be rough patches.  There will be sleepless nights.  There will be headaches.  However, they are part and parcel of the learning process and they, believe it or not, enrich our life experience, well, in a perverse way, whether or not the relationship works out in the end.

We can't have our cake and eat it and well should we know this. Right, a spot of tea and, perhaps, some cake, anyone?

Charts in brief: 29 April 10.

STI climbs 0.9% to 2,959.01 at closing
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: On 26 April, I said that "when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal".  The MACD has flattened today while the signal line continues to fall.  A white hammer is formed today.  This is the third reversal signal in a row. It is also the first day that price action has detached from the lower Bollinger band. Even if a reversal does not happen, this suggests that the downward momentum is weakening.  The stochastics continues to rise within the oversold region while the MFI pushes deeper into the oversold region. Mixed signals are more positive than negative in a downtrend. Immediate resistance are at $2.23 and $2.27.

Golden Agriculture: A bearish candlestick setup today as the black candle travelled half the distance down the previous day's white candle. All momentum oscillators are down.  OBV is also down. Saving grace? Reduced volume. Immediate resistance is now provided by the 20dMA at 60.5c while immediate support is still at 57.5c. Weakness is very much obvious and the counter might move to test supports before moving higher.

Global Palm Resources off 6.5% on SGX debut
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: A strong Baltic Dry Index (BDI) might be the reason for a levitation act here plus the fact that the counter is trading CD. The BDI is up almost 4% today at 3,329.  This is a boon to Courage Marine, for sure. Counter closed at 22c today, the support provided by the 20dMA.

Even though I really like the fundamentals and I like this company, the technicals are a tad weak and I would not chase it. Momentum oscillators are down.  The MACD continues to pull downwards away from the signal line. The OBV has turned down for two sessions in a row.

However, for someone who is looking for exposure to the counter, the current price should have limited downside with a cluster of supports at 20.5c to 21.5c. Any entry at this level should be considered a hedge. I won't break the piggy bank.

Mercator Lines charters out 2 vessels
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Genting SP: A dramatic reversal today after spotting five reversal signals in a row: black hammer, black spinning top, doji, white hammer, white hammer.  This is a good example of how a counter might have multiple reversal signals before the reversal is confirmed in the usual way.

Extremely high volume up day as two resistance levels were blown away. Next resistance levels are at 97c and $1.02. Momentum oscillators have all turned up strongly. Chances of a follow through are good. Not vested.

Marina Bay Sands resort had 36,000 visitors in first 24 hours
Thursday, 29 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Charts in brief: 28 April 10.

A movie: Ip Man 2

I watched part 1 and I am definitely watching part 2!  I am a huge fan of Donnie Yen!!!

《葉問2》電影預告 @ Yahoo! Video

The US consumers are back!

There is a saying: "old habits die hard". This is why I always say what we see happening in the global economy is not just a function of economics and politics, it is also a function of culture. For any culture to change their practices, it would usually take an entire generation and the will to change has to be forceful.  Usually, this means that reality must have shifted so much as to burn an indelible mark in the psyche of its people.

Thus, we saw the Americans saving more when it looked as if their country was plunging into a bottomless pit in the midst of the global financial crisis (which, by the way, originated in the USA).  A worsening of the crisis was averted by the decisive actions of the US government.  With the spectre of prolonged hardship receding, it seems that the American consumers are back at what they do best.  This is a double edged sword, I do not doubt.  However, it is good news for the economy while it lasts.

Visa 2Q profit jumps as consumer spending rebounds

Visa posts 33 percent jump in 2nd-quarter profit as consumer spending gains strength
Eileen Aj Connelly, AP Business Writer, On Wednesday April 28, 2010, 6:49 pm EDT

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Revived consumer spending drove Visa Inc.'s fiscal second-quarter profit up 33 percent and the credit and debit card processor forecast strong revenue growth for the full year.

Visa's growth continued to lean heavily on surging debit card usage as customers still prefer paying with checking account funds rather than with credit cards. The increased fees that Visa is collecting from merchants for processing customers' payments echoes the improved sales results many companies have reported in recent weeks as consumers appear to be more confident about spending.

In the U.S., Visa said 19 percent more transactions were made with debit cards and the size of those purchases in dollars rose 18 percent. In foreign markets, 20 percent more transactions were made with debit cards and the value of those transactions in dollars surged 33 percent.

Chairman and CEO Joseph Saunders noted that volume growth fueled the earnings gains, but said the company is "increasingly optimistic that economic growth will gradually improve."

Read full article here.
 
The Bears are Wrong: "The Consumer Is RE-leveraging," Jon Markman Says
Posted Apr 26, 2010 09:34am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
 
The recent data is convincing; The U.S. consumer is making a comeback. New home sales jumped 27% percent in March, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 411,000, the Commerce Department said Friday. Meanwhile, durable goods orders (large manufactured products) rose the most since the 'great recession' began.

As sure as buying low and selling high is a winning formula, an American with money will purchase goods, says Marketwatch columnist and author Jon Markman. "Anybody who's bet against the American consumer over the long term has gone broke," he tells Aaron in this clip.



Related posts:
New global economic leadership.
Real estate as a hedge against inflation.

Charts in brief: 28 April 10.

Straits Asia Resources posts 68% fall in Q1 net profit to $15.4m
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI drops 2% to 2,932.04 at closing
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: A white spinning top formed today on lower volume.  This is a reversal signal, again. The MACD has stopped increasing its distance from the signal line.  This suggests that the downward movement in price has slowed down somewhat in intensity. Stochastics and MFI are going deeper into oversold territory and the OBV turned down slightly.  All in, the technicals are still bearish. If the reversal signal delivers, immediate resistance are at $2.24 and $2.27, provided by the declining 20dMA and 50dMA respectively.

Golden Agriculture: Despite gapping down initially, a white candle was formed today as the counter closed at 59.5c.  However, unable to close higher than the closing price of the previous session is still rather bearish.  OBV is down. MFI is flat which suggests a lack of positive buying momentum. Initial support is still at 57.5c.

Healthway Medical: A gravestone doji formed today as price closed at 15.5c. A dead cross formed as the descending 20dMA cuts the 50dMA from the top. Technically, things look grave, pardon the pun.  However, the more or less flat OBV plus the fact that the Stochastics is in the oversold region suggest that any downward movement is likely to be a slow drift rather than a crash.

Courage Marine: The MFI continues to move lower away from the overbought region.  OBV dips down slightly as the price action formed a doji today. Price touched a low of 22c for the second day in a row, supported by the rising 20dMA.  Perhaps, this counter needs to see the longer term MAs catch up with the 20dMA before its price could move higher. A correction using time, perhaps?

Saizen REIT: It is worth reminding ourselves that the longer term uptrend is intact as the descending 100wMA plays havoc with sentiments. Look at the daily chart and we see the MFI has formed a higher high and a higher low.  Buying momentum has been positive.  In fact, the MACD has turned up slightly today towards the signal line while still above zero.

16.5c is still the support to watch. 17.5c is still the resistance provided by the descending 100wMA.

 
In the weekly chart, it is quite clear that the OBV has been trending up which suggests that steady accumulation is happening over time. Any further weakness in price is likely to bring out more buyers, as such.
 

Singapore’s central bank says inflation could hit 4% in Q4
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Even the 4% being earned in our CPF Special Accounts is just keeping pace with inflation by Q4 this year.  A scary thought. Bungee jumping, anyone?

Be Patient ... Big Jobs Gains Are Coming,
Chris Rupkey Says
Posted Apr 28, 2010 09:00am EDT by Heesun Wee



Las Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sheldon G. Adelson tells Yahoo! SEA's Ion Danker what he thinks of Resorts World Sentosa, 28 April 2010.

What do you think of the competition from Resorts World Sentosa? @ Yahoo! Video

Related post:
Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

Markets are going higher in time.

In a couple of earlier posts, I mentioned that I believe the bull market we are experiencing is a cyclical bull market and that we are actually still caught in a secular bear market.  This means that the previous high set in the markets would not be bested.  So, we have to be careful once markets start testing those old highs.  A quick check against the charts would tell us that we are nowhere near those highs yet.

However, since the lows of March 2009, the markets have recovered tremendously.  The much anticipated correction has been elusive thus far but it will come and it is only a matter of time.  In such a correction, it would be an opportune time to load up on quality stocks for the next leg up. 

I would advise anyone who would like to make some money in the stock market to start drawing up a list of stocks which he or she would like to own for the rest of the cyclical bull.  Then, load up during the correction.  Buy on weakness.

We should not be overly bullish or bearish.  We should not be stubbornly holding on to any position.  I believe in being a pragmatist.  Good luck!

Related posts:

Be a pragmatist and prosper in 2010.

A new year and a new decade: Strategy for 2010.

---------------------------------------------

"Don't Fight the Tape," Jon Markman Says:

Classic Advice That's "Very Relevant" Today

Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:27pm EDT by Aaron Task

Bullish Sentiment on the Rise:

Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?

Posted Apr 27, 2010 08:15am EDT by Aaron Task

Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

STI drops 0.4% to 2,991.68 at closing
Tuesday, 27 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: This counter has formed two dragonfly dojis in a row.  Look at the OBV and we see steady accumulation as steps are formed upwards. The MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  This is a REIT with strong numbers and technically, it has limited downside as well.  Still one of my favourite high yields.

CapitaMalls Asia: A white hammer! Another reversal signal! Dare I believe it? $2.12 support identified in earlier TAs was hit today.  Closing at $2.15 is actually closing at resistance.  So, if this is indeed a reversal signal, there should be confirmation tomorrow.  Let's see.

Golden Agriculture: Volume expanded on a black candle day as price closed at 60c, the support provided by the 20dMA. If this support breaks, the next support is at 57.5c. The many times tested resistance at 62.5c remains the immediate upside target.

Healthway Medical: The declining 20dMA has made contact with the 50dMA. A dead cross is imminent. Price touched a low of 15.5c, a price the counter has not seen since 3 Mar this year.  That this happened on much higher volume is ominous. MACD is under zero which suggests that the positive momentum is over. This is confirmed by the declining MFI, forming lower highs. The positives? OBV is flat which suggests a lack of accumulation AND distribution.  Stochastics shows a deeply oversold situation. So? I do not expect any crash in price but a gradual drift downwards is probable, in the absence of any positive catalyst.

China Hongxing: Much lower volume.  OBV flattened.  Price unchanged. MFI and Stochastics are still declining and seem ready to move into oversold territory.  For now, it seems that the selling pressure has abated but the technicals are definitely more negative overall. Any upside will meet with resistance at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up ever so slightly on a white candle day. It could very well have been a doji since only 2 lots were done at 23c at closing, seemingly in an effort to form a white candle. That price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band is obvious.  This usually suggests that the uptrend has lost momentum. In case the price does continue moving higher, 23.5c remains the initial resistance, followed by 25.5c and 27c.  Initial support is at 22c.

Suntec REIT achieves DPU of 2.513 cents for 1Q
Tuesday, 27 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

U.S. Finally Starts Dumping Citigroup
-- Smart Move, Tim Geithner!
Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:30pm EDT by Henry Blodget

 
Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Singapore recovery becoming broad-based, entrenched, Lim says
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI gains 0.5% to 3,002.62 at closing
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal signal from the last session was negated today.  This is becoming a habit for this counter. Price closed at $2.15, a 123.6% Fibo support.  Further weakness would bring in $2.12, $2.10 and $2.07 as supports as suggested by Fibo lines.  MFI and Stochastics are firmly in oversold terrritories. MACD is still moving downwards away from the signal line.  It is my guess that when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal.

Golden Agriculture: The move up today was unconvincing.  Lower volume formed a hangman. The lack of volatility in recent sessions is obvious as the Bollinger bands begin to converge.  Price will have to move in one direction soon.  OBV shows continuing accumulation while the MFI has been exhibiting higher lows and higher highs.  MACD is above zero but is somewhat sluggish.  The leaning is towards a move upwards and any retracement should find initial support at 60c, followed by 57.5c.

Saizen REIT: Price action is trapped between the 20dMA and the 50dMA at 17c and 16.5c, respectively. Nothing exciting is happening.  OBV is flat.  MFI is declining.  Stochastics has flattened. Longer term uptrend is still intact.

Courage Marine: MFI has emerged from the overbought region. OBV is flat. MACD has made a bearish crossover with the signal line. All signs suggest that we are seeing weaker holders giving up their positions.  Initial support is at the 20dMA, 22c.  For the more cautious, waiting to see if the 20dMA is able to hold up is a good idea as the next support in case the 20dMA gives way is at 20c which is some way to fall.  Of course, it might be a good idea to hedge, as usual.

NOL says container shipping volumes up 32% and average revenue up 12% in Period 3
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: It seems that the sell call in my last TA was spot on.  OBV down.  MFI down although not oversold yet.  MACD formed a bearish crossover with signal line and is beneath zero. Volume expanded enormously on a black candle day. The lows of 27 April and 23 June 09 which were at 12c might soon be tested if the selling momentum persists.  Any rebound in the meantime would find a cluster of resistance at 15c, 15.5c and 16c.  Not for the faint hearted.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

A movie: How to train your dragon (Part 2).

LP commented last night that he found this movie very good.  I agree.  He got to watch the 3D version.  I'm envious.  I was going to watch the 3D version but I had discount coupons and they could not be used for the 3D version.  I am so tempted to go back and watch the 3D version.  Watch the movie a second time? Why not?  I remember some of my female (and male) friends watched "Titanic" four or five times!

'Dragon' wings it back to No. 1 with $15 million
'How to Train Your Dragon' wings it back to No. 1 with $15M; 'Back-up Plan' finishes second
David Germain, AP Movie Writer, On Sunday April 25, 2010, 2:27 pm EDT

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- "How to Train Your Dragon" continues to breathe fire at the box office, while newer releases are mostly blowing smoke.

The DreamWorks Animation adventure took in $15 million to reclaim the No. 1 spot in its fifth weekend of release. "How to Train Your Dragon" opened in first place in late March, then dropped back into the pack. But it has held up strongly and climbed to the top again amid a flurry of so-so new releases.

The tale of a Viking youth and his pet dragon raised its total to $178 million and is on its way to becoming a $200 million hit.

Premiering weakly at No. 2 with $12.3 million was Jennifer Lopez's romantic comedy "The Back-up Plan," released by CBS Films. Another comedy, Steve Carell and Tina Fey's "Date Night" from 20th Century Fox, held up well to finish at No. 3 with $10.6 million, raising its total to $63.5 million.

Among the weekend's other newcomers, the Warner Bros. action flick "The Losers" flopped at No. 4 with $9.6 million. Disney's nature film "Oceans" had a solid opening for a documentary, coming in at No. 8 with $6 million.

"How to Train Your Dragon" nearly regained the No. 1 spot the previous weekend but wound up a close second to Lionsgate's superhero comedy "Kick-Ass." In its second weekend, "Kick-Ass" slumped to No. 5 with $9.5 million, down 52 percent from its debut, lifting its total to $34.9 million.

Read complete article here.

Related post:
A movie: How to train your dragon.

Tea with AK71: Be kind to ourselves.

I just read an article by Wilfred Ling titled "Silent pain from an insurance agent".  You can read the article here. It is a rare peek into the life of a rookie insurance agent and his angst.

Rare indeed is it for a person to find a job he is actually interested in, grows to love and makes a comfortable living out of it. I believe that many muddle through their careers and endure hardships and even disillusionment, just like this insurance agent.

Personally, I have a simple philosophy in life: "Be happy.  As long as you are not hurting anyone while being happy, you're doing fine."  Of course, sometimes, life throws us into a hole and prevents us from being happy.  What do we do? Climb out of the hole and start afresh.

There may be some truly compassionate and altruistic beings in this world but, generally, no one will take care of us. We have to take care of ourselves. Nobody owes us a living.

If others are cruel to us, we have to love ourselves more. Do not hurt ourselves further by staying on and allowing that cruelty to continue unless there is a REALLY good reason to do so.

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When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Get Going:
Maria Bartiromo on the Keys to Success
Posted Apr 23, 2010 05:01pm EDT by Tech Ticker

Revisiting High Yield Portfolio.

On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog.  It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.

Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:

Saizen REIT:  This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%.  Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT):  This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c.  Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.

LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c.  Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.

First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c.  Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.

Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38.  Gained 2.99%.  XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.

SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15.  Gained 15.3%.

Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%.  He would also have an average yield of 1.1%.  Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.

The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.

It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months.  Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.
High yield portfolio.

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I don't usually watch football but this is entertaining:
A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.

Gimnasia Vs. Boca @ Yahoo! Video

Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

STI gains 0.3% to 2,988.49 at closing
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17.  A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones.  A buy signal.

The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory.  Is this a reversal?  Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April.  Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD.  Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze.  A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.

China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals.  So, I am wondering whether to cut.

Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c.  The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down.  I might cut loss on Monday.

Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat.  So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.

Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions.  If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so.  Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA.  I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts.  This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance.  It is now at 17.5c.

The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c.  Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.

In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend.  The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.

First REIT’s 1Q distributable income up 1.3% to $5.2m
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Maria Bartiromo on Goldman Case: Where's the Fraud?

Posted Apr 22, 2010 04:23pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein


Related posts:
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?
Charts in brief: 21 April 10.