First REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 1.93c and a higher fair value?

First REIT has declared a DPU of 1.93c. The unit price of First REIT has been rising steadily. It is clear that Mr. Market is willing to pay a gradually higher price for the REIT's units which leads me to wonder if we could see First REIT's distribution yield compressing to 6% which would bring it closer to PLife REIT's distribution yield which is currently under 6%. This could see the REIT's unit price going to $1.06.

When calculating distribution yield, I would rather use a DPU of 1.6c per quarter instead of 1.93c. Why? When we look at the numbers, we would see that the net property income (NPI) has improved 6% while distributable income has improved some 22%. This is because First REIT is still paying out its gains from divesting its Adam Road property. If we remove this component, the DPU should hover at 1.6c or so.

In fact, year on year, if we look at the distributions from operation, it has actually declined a marginal 1.4%. Total comprehensive income, even after the removal of the one off gain from the divestment of its Adam Road property, saw a reduction of some 7%; this is due to higher income tax expense. So, one would not be wrong to wonder if its estimated post rights DPU of about 1.6c per quarter in future could be maintained, everything else remaining equal.

When the REIT acquired its first property in South Korea, freehold Sarang Hospital, many were optimistic. However, the acquistion increased the REIT's gross revenue by 6.3% while increasing its operating expenses by 51.1%. Expectations for a higher DPU due to the acquisition has yet to be met.

Some might say that the underperformance is to be expected since being the REIT's only facility in South Korea, there is no economies of scale per se. In fact, I wondered about this when the acquisition was announced last year.

See the relevant blog post: here (First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea).

Although S-REITs distribute a minimum of 90% of their income to unitholders unlike companies which pay dividends from their earnings, it might still be of interest to some to note that First REIT's earnings per unit has declined year on year from 2.13c to 1.51c. This takes into consideration its rights issue, of course.

With its NAV per unit at 79.99c, the REIT is now trading at a 15% premium to NAV.

What remains largely in the REIT's favour is its very low gearing level and if it were to gear up to 40% to make yield accretive purchases in locations where it could benefit from economies of scale, we could see its DPU bump up by more than 20%.

At current prices, I would hold and not add to my long position.

See financial statement: here.

Related post:
First REIT: To sell or not to sell?

SPH: Interim dividend of 7c per share.

SPH remains my largest investment in a blue chip. Over the years, it has been very good to me. Last year, I had hoped to buy more SPH shares if price should dip to $3.60 a piece but it never did.

Clementi Mall.

Singapore Press Holdings’ (SPH) 2QFY12 PATMI came in at S$83.9m, or 5 S-cents per share, which was 16% higher YoY. 1HFY12 PATMI now make up 46% of our full year forecast, falling short mainly due to lower investment income.

2QFY12 topline was S$298.5m - in-line with our expectations - and making up 50% of our full year forecast. An interim dividend of 7 S-cents was declared.

We continue to view SPH favorably as it continues to ramp up on its retail mall strategy - a stable counterweight to its print business going forward. Group investible funds currently stand at S$0.9bn, which points to sufficient capacity for further allocation into its retail strategy ahead.

Maintain BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$4.05 (versus S$3.99 previously) mostly due to stronger assumptions for Clementi Mall.

Source: OCBC Research, 16 April 2012.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2012.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has declared a DPU of 2.7c for 4Q FY2012. Total DPU for FY2012 is, therefore, 10.45c. At the last session's closing price of $1.185 a unit, this means a distribution yield of about 8.82%. The REIT goes XD on 2 May and will distribute income on 19 June.

Gearing: 30% (which would drop to 28.8% upon completion of sale of 31 Admiralty Road). 25 properties revalued upwards and this probably helped to lower the REIT's gearing.

NAV/unit: $1.406.

Interest cover ratio: 6.2x

Occupancy: 99.2%.

Weighted average land lease expiry: 41.7 years.

Weighted average lease expiry (WALE): 2.62 years.

Average security deposits: 8.1 months.

The REIT also saw positive rental reversions of 10 to 15% in FY2012.

With 38.9% of leases expiring in 2013, the management has either commenced negotiations to extend the leases with tenants and sub-tenants or completed re-leasing for the affected properties. It is also good to know that 88.2% of Master Leases expiring in 2013 are supported by underlying sub-leases.

The REIT is offering a Distribution Reinvestment Plan this time. For unitholders who would like to own more units at current prices without having to pay any brokerage fees, this is probably a good thing.

"By the implementation of the Distribution Reinvestment Plan, the Manager is providing Unitholders with an option to receive Distributions, either in the form of Units or cash or a combination of both, declared on the Units held by Unitholders. It enables Unitholders to acquire additional Units without having to incur transaction or other related costs.

"AIMSAMPIREIT will also benefit from Unitholders’ participation in the Distribution Reinvestment Plan as, to the extent that Unitholders elect to receive distributions in the form of Units, the cash is retained by AIMSAMPIREIT to fund its continuing growth and expansion. The retention of cash and the issue of Units in lieu of cash under the Distribution Reinvestment Plan will also enlarge AIMSAMPREIT’s capital base, strengthen its working capital reserves and improve the liquidity of Units."

Personally, I would not be taking part as I am investing for income. Also, I am not looking to increase my long position at current prices.

See presentation slides: here.

See announcement on Distribution Reinvestment Plan: here.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulate on weakness.

FCOT: DPU up 16.8% in the last 18 months.

I did a piece on FCOT in October 2010 when I said that the REIT has probably turned the corner. At that time, it was trading at 15.5c a unit (which would have been 77.5c a unit, post consolidation). It closed at 87.5c in the last session.

DPU was 0.5549c then (which would have been 2.7745c, post consolidation). FCOT has declared a DPU of 3.2423c for 1H FY12 which means that DPU has increased some 16.8% from 18 months ago. It will go XD on 25 April and income distribution will take place on 30 May.

Annualised, we are looking at a distribution yield of 7.4% at a unit price of 87.5c.

Distributable income increased 7.7% YoY to S$15.9m as a result of lower interest expenses.

Average portfolio occupancy eased marginally to 96.1% from 97.6% seen in 1Q.

Weighted average lease to expiry as at 31 Mar was maintained at 3.4 years, with 17.0% of its leases due to expire in FY12.

NAV/unit: $1.33

Gearing: 36.1%

Interest cover ratio: 3.25x.

Related post:
FCOT: Turning around.

See OCBC Research: here.

See presentation slides: here.

Cache Logistics Trust: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.086c.

It is no secret that I like industrial S-REITs as passive income generators. I am also vested in Cache Logistics Trust although my long position here is quite a bit smaller compared to my investments in Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

DPU for the quarter came in at 2.086 S cents and represented a 6.9% YoY increase. 

Income distribution is payable 30th of May 2012.

CACHE’s portfolio properties remained 100% occupied.

The weighted average lease expiry (WALE) stood at 4.4 years.

Aggregate leverage improved from 29.6% as at 31 Dec 2011 to 27.7%. This gives the REIT an estimated S$110m of additional debt headroom for future investment opportunities.

Interest cover maintained at a strong 8.0x.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: 4Q and 2011 results.

See OCBC Research, 19 April:
Cache Logistics Trust: Positive start to FY12.

See presentation slides: here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Credit rating.

Life has been somewhat stressful for me lately. Lots of things happening. That explains the paucity of blog posts.

I am trying to get up to speed with things and also trying to catch up on my reading of business periodicals which I have neglected lately.

In today's The Business Times, I read that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has received an investment grade credit rating of BBB- from Standard & Poor's. This is good news indeed. This rating is the same as the one received by Sabana REIT last year in August.

This means that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT would be able to access investment grade debt and capital markets from now on. It would also allow the REIT to gear up to a maximum of 60% if necessary.

Anyone who has been following my blog would know that I have been walking the talk when it comes to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. So, for anyone who has walked the walk with me although there has been no lack of naysayers, good on you. Congratulations!

Fair value for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, I believe, remains closer to S$1.25 per unit which would see its distribution yield compressing to about 8% per annum.

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: How much higher?
2. OCBC Research: Industrial REITs.

Fraud: Taking money from some adults is like taking candy from a baby.

If people promise us easy money, we should have to be very cautious. What is it about? How is it possible? Why is it so? Don't be a victim of fraud.

Just a few weeks ago, a client told me how he was given some physical gold for investing some money in a company. Apparently, the gold given to him was worth some 60% of the money he invested. In case the company went belly up, a new investor would only lose 40% of his capital.

The promised annual return was some 25% of the initial sum he invested, if I remember correctly. So, after holding for two years, an investor would be "safe" even if the company were to close down.

The person who got him involved in this "investment" was with him at the time and tried to get me to join them. After all, a consistent 25% annual return is a mind-boggling feat! Needless to say, I declined. Yup, I declined. It sounds too good to be true and probably is. This could be another OilPods or The Gold Label Pte. Ltd.

About OilPods: "More than 2,000 investors, mostly Singaporeans, were victims of this multi-million dollar Ponzi scheme, which involved purported investments in oil and gas. They were paid even before the oil was extracted, with existing investors receiving dividends from subscriptions of new investors." (The Business Times, 4 April 2012)

Another example of fraud has to do with land banking. In June 2010, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) issued a warning on Land Banking plots schemes warning they may be a scam with specific focus on companies offering land from the UK and Canada. (Source: Wikipedia)

A multi level marketing company, Sunshine Empire, was also in the news. The company had gathered up to S$189 million in funds through investment schemes, alleged to have never materialised and in fact a Ponzi scheme. Initial trial revealed that over S$115m were paid out as 'investment returns', while another S$40m were transferred to associates as 'interest free loans' and the remaining believed to have been expended or paid out to directors as fees. (Source: Wikipedia)

Unfortunately, there will always be people who would join the party. I dare say that a vast majority of the population is probably naive enough to believe in such "investments".

Money is hard to make and my heart always goes out to victims of fraud. Often, they are quite naive but hard working common people who just want a better return on their hard earned money.

I still remember how a female clerk in her 50s sent all her life savings of S$20,000, which, to her, was a princely sum, to an offshore investment firm after receiving a cold call promising her higher returns. She cried buckets later on.

Fraud: In criminal law, a fraud is an intentional deception made for personal gain or to damage another individual. (Source: Wikipedia)

Yes, it is a crime! 

Fraudsters should be put behind bars for life!

Tee International: Initiated long position at 22.5c.

Tee International is a mechanical and electrical engineering company and sometime real estate developer. As its engineering business accounts for more than 90% of its revenue, it seems like another logical beneficiary of the increase in expenditure on public building projects in the region.

As of 12 March 2012, the company has an order book of S$350.7m for its engineering segment alone. See: here.

Today, I bought some shares at 22.5c a piece as news that "Bertie Cheng, its chairman, and Phua Chian Kin, the group's CEO and managing director, are the subject of CAD investigations on the possible contravention of market rigging provisions in the Securities and Futures Act" (Source: CNA) for the period of July 2008 to March 2009 sent its share price tumbling from 25c to a low of 21.5c.

Do I think that 22.5c is cheap enough to long the stock? Fundamentally, I do not think it is cheap but, in nominal terms, it is cheaper than it has been in a long time. The last time the stock was traded at under 22.5c a share was in late 2010.

Technically, there is also some support at the price of 22.5c. Stronger support is to be found at 21.5c, however, and I could add to my position if it should be tested once more.

As I cannot see how investigations into alleged indiscretions which might have happened over a 9 months period in 2008 and 2009 could possibly derail the company's business in the current time frame, the sell off is probably a knee jerk reaction which presents an opportunity to buy in.

Fundamentally, Tee International's high gearing is something of a concern although it has come down substantially from the year before. A closer look reveals that its interest cover ratio is quite strong as its earnings could easily cover its cost of debt 8x. Expectations are for the company to continue paying down its borrowings over time. The current low interest rate environment is a boon for a highly leveraged company like this.

Half year EPS is at 1.7c. Annualising this gives us a PE ratio of 6.6x. NAV is at 17.9c per share. Assuming that the company maintains its dividend payout ratio of 30%, we could be looking at a dividend yield of 4.5% or so at a share price of 22.5c.

Arguably, however, investors are probably not interested in Tee International as an investment for income. They are probably more interested in its growth trajectory. Indeed, the analyst reports I have read so far expect the company to do much better in its second half and into 2013. If their expectations are correct, the numbers I have presented in the preceding paragraph would have underestimated the company's future performance by a wide margin.

Personally, I am interested in Tee International as a shorter term trade. Let's see if Mr. Market recovers from its initial panic and regains its composure. If the dragonfly doji formed today is anything to go by, it could indeed happen. Confirmation is required tomorrow.

I expect immediate support at 22.5c and immediate resistance at 24c. Gap closing at 25c could happen in time although the 100d MA could be a barrier as it acts as resistance at 24.5c.

On a lighter note, the fact that their largest shareholder who owns more than 50% of the company is someone called Phua C.K. puts a smile on my face.

See: 2Q and half year financial statement.

Analysis by SIAS Research: here.

TEE International rated 'increase exposure' by SIAS. Intrinsic value: 45c.
Wednesday, 18 April 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Cache Logistics Trust: Retreating to supports.

Cache Logistics Trust is a favourite of many REIT investors. It has also received many glowing reports from analysts. I also have a small long position in the REIT.

Today, a reader left a comment in my blog asking me if it is a good time to invest in the REIT as it closed at $1 a unit in the last session. Fundamentally, the REIT is a well run entity with 8.4% distribution yield per annum. If one is happy with its numbers, why not? Technically, however, I see possibly further weakness and there could be stronger supports at 98.5c and 97c.

I thought I would share in this blog how I arrived at these numbers.  Quite simply, I looked at the longer term chart, the weekly chart. Daily charts show shorter term price gyrations while weekly charts show possible longer term directions. The MAs on the weekly chart for a trending counter are likely to be stronger supports and resistance, therefore.

Notice how the black candles of the last two weeks formed on the back of increasing volumes? Positive momentum is obviously weakening and further weakness in price would not be surprising.

On the daily chart, the MACD is on the verge of entering negative territory. A return of negative momentum could send unit price lower. The Stochastics is upturning in negative territory. This suggests an oversold situation but if this momentum oscillator should turn up successfully, there could be support and downside could be limited. 98.5c or 97c in the near term? Possibly.

What is interesting to note is how the OBV has been declining which suggests distribution activity has been going on for some time. For sure, it did not happen in a straight line but the trend is clear. This signal suggests that we should exercise caution when initiating long positions. Better to err on the side of caution it would seem.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: 4Q and FY2011 results.

Tea with AK71: Reel fight to real fight!

I enjoy Chinese period drama. I enjoy Chinese pugilistic movies with good kung fu too. Two actors I particularly like watching in such movies are Donnie Yen and Zhao Wen Zhuo whom I recently found out is called Vincent Chiu.

Donnie Yen

I don't usually follow the entertainment news and I usually skip the "Life" section in The Straits Times. Due to this, I have been said to have no life by some friends and family members. Nice pun.

However, the recent fight between Donnie Yen and Vincent Chiu which apparently has been going on for weeks finally caught my attention. If it gets the attention of AK71, it must be BIG!

Vincent Chiu

I don't know either man personally, of course, and whether it is a clash of egos or if there are some serious and valid grievances, I do not know. You guys go read the reports and decide for yourselves. Apparently, the dispute created flaming in cyberspace that would make the Great Fire of London looked like a harmless campfire.

What caught my attention and created a deep impression was a remark by Vincent Chiu:

"All ten properties I bought at a low price in Beijing are now worth six times more.

"Even if I stop working, I won't have any difficulty getting by," Chiu told the media recently, in response to Yen's announcement that he would take Chiu to court.

Passive income in the form of rental income plus capital appreciation of 500%! Impressive. Vincent Chiu is not just an accomplished martial arts pugilist, he is also a savvy investor.

Read the article: here.

SoundGlobal: Golden cross.

Are we about to see the formation of a true golden cross which is the bullish crossing of the 200dMA by the 100dMA?

"A real, true golden cross — a very Japanese signal — occurs when a rising 100-day moving average crosses above a flat or rising 200-day moving average. It signals positive price action." Goola Warden, The EDGE.

The 200d MA in this case is still declining. So, the case for a true golden cross is weakened. Nonetheless, there seems to be longer term support with volume dwindling as price consolidation continues.

Although there seems to be longer term support, the 20dMA is declining and what looks like a declining triangle has formed.

Immediate support is at 58c which is where the golden cross is found. If that support should break, we could see the counter's share price declining to 52c which is where the 161.8% Fibo line approximates.

I was once upon a time a shareholder of SoundGlobal when it was still known as E-pure. Today, I am once again a shareholder as I initiated a long position at 59c.

SoundGlobal profit increased 43.1% (29 Feb 2011): Announcement here.

Tea with AK71: Learn a second language!

I remember a Caucasian lecturer from New Zealand telling me before that he wished he was bilingual. He only knew the English language and he didn't think he was totally proficient in the language either. He said he thought the Singapore government did the right thing in schooling us in two languages.


It seems that learning to speak a second langauge also makes us smarter if what I read in a magazine is to be believed.

Bilingual children performed better than monolingual children in a series of tests that assessed ability to solve complex problems. This is according to a study by Toronto's York University.

People who are more effectively bilingual also are less likely to suffer from dementia and other symptoms associated with Alzheimer's disease. This is from a study by the University of California, San Diego.

Seems that I should spend more time brushing up my Mandarin. Time to buy a copy of the Chinese language papers, perhaps.

Reference: MensHealth.com, 27 March 2012.

Low interest rates' a double whammy for some.

Central banks in many large economies around the world are keeping interest rates really low, near zero in countries like the USA and Japan, in fact. Low interest rates are seen as the way to encourage economic growth by making borrowings cheaper.

To revive their sickly economies, the relevant countries' low interest rates could be instrumental. However, as money would go to where it is treated best, a lot of this cheap money is finding its way to Asia. Although the USA would like to see inflation in their economy, their money printing has also caused inflation in Asian economies.

Declining value of the US$. Source: Wikipedia.

The low interest rate environment is hurting people who save. They get less interest income for their savings and they are also impacted by higher prices like everyone else. They are being paid less and forced to spend more! A double whammy!

Savers have to put their money to work if they want to be paid more than the paltry interest rates on savings offered by the banks. This means taking on risks by investing their savings. This sounds simple enough but we have to remember that not everyone should be taking risks. What about the elderly?

I get worried when my mother and others her age are telling me now that they should invest their money in real estate, bonds or the stock market because they are getting next to nothing for their savings in their bank accounts. Do they have a choice?

Related posts:
1. Perpetual bonds: Good or bad?
2. Money continues to flow into Singapore.
3. To protect our wealth, we have to take risk.

Stocks rise, Neptune Orient gains
Tuesday, 27 March 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.

There is a rather obvious negative divergence between price and the MACD. Higher price was achieved with a lower high on the MACD recently. So, we should not be surprised if the share price should decline in the near future as positive momentum in the short term weakens.

However, look at the OBV. There is no sign of smart money retreating as price rose. In fact, it is scaling higher. This suggests that smart money could use any price weakness as an opportunity to buy.

Indeed, if we look at the weekly chart, there is no sign of a negative divergence. The MACD is rising higher into positive territory. The longer term technicals definitely have a bullish bias.

However, with the share price nearing the declining 100w MA which is at $1.71 now, the near term weakness is not unreasonable. The 100w MA is expected to provide some strong resistance.

With the OBV rising, any pull back in price to supports is likely to be a buying opportunity. The pull back should be on the back of declining volume to make the case for buying more compelling.

Of course, the counter could decide to do a correction using time instead. That would be most annoying but that is Mr. Market.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Going XD on 23 April.

Affordability of housing in Singapore.

Hot on the heels of my last blog post on property prices in Singapore and whether more cooling measures are on the way, I came across an article in TODAY which reported that HDB slammed PropertyGuru for inaccurately reporting that it is more affordable to buy a private property than a resale HDB flat.

I am not really interested in their squabbles since it has no bearing on my life. 

However, I am interested in the last three paragraphs of the article, especially the last two which should put to rest any doubt about the government's intention of driving down the prices of residential property in Singapore.

"One cannot deny the fact that in the last five years, income has not increased at the same rate as property prices," he (PropNex Realty chief executive Mohamed Ismail) said. "However, all property prices are subject to cycles and a correction is likely when the affordability ratio widens."

The HDB felt the rise in HDB resale and private property prices in recent years "is not sustainable". 

"That is why the Government has been intervening with both supply and demand measures, in order to correct the imbalance," said the HDB. "The market has moderated considerably."

With all newly-wed first-timers "largely assured" of access to a new flat, the HDB said it would focus on helping second-timers this year. "As we assist second-timers in getting a new HDB flat, the impact will be felt in the HDB resale market," added the HDB. 

"Meanwhile, URA (Urban Redevelopment Authority) will continue to push out land supply for new private property development, to match the demand. The affordability of housing in Singapore should further improve in the months ahead."

Source: TODAY, 24 March 2012.
PropertyGuru report misleading: HDB.

Related post:
More cooling measures on the way?

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Weekend Comment Mar 23: Flight to REITs as volatility returns
Friday, 23 March 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

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Singapore tightens rules for developers
Wednesday, 18 April 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

More cooling measures on the way?

A friend told me that the middle class in Singapore is rich and they have plenty of money for investment. That is probably just a guess. So, I would also hazard a guess to say that many are probably leveraged up to invest in properties and that they are not all cash rich per se.

Notice how it is new launches which are doing well? This is evident in January and Februarys' sales figures. The resale market has gone very quiet. Why? Obviously, one reason is the initial financial outlay is smaller for new launches and payments are made progressively. If all of these buyers are really cash rich, they would be more active in the resale market because, frankly, right now, many times, there is better value in the resale market and these investors would also be able to benefit from rental income right away.

I believe that a big wave of more marginal investors will get hit when the oversupply situation becomes increasingly apparent in residential and commercial properties. Yes, commercial properties too. Rentals have been declining and will probably continue to decline for some time as more new space becomes available.

People leveraging up and buying newly launched properties in anticipation of bigger returns 3 or 4 years down the road when the properties get their TOPs are playing a very risky game. It takes time for stock of real estate to build up and just like arsenic which kills the victim slowly over time, oversupply which builds up over months and years might catch some people unaware.

Of course, there is the argument that unless there is a big external shock, property prices in Singapore will stay resilient. Do we feel that the eurozone's problems are truly over? Do we feel that China's economy is iron clad? Is there no chance of a big external shock taking place? With prices having doubled or more in the last decade and up by 50% or more in the last three years alone, a big external shock could produce a real shocker of a price fall.

We also have people like CDL's Mr. Kwek and CPL's Mr. Liew who say that they have very strong balance sheets and that they do not have to slash prices to move stock. However, these are public listed companies. They have to account to shareholders. Sit on unproductive stock or rent them out upon completion in an environment of weakening rentals even if they are 99 years leasehold properties? I think not.

Also, do not underestimate the political will of the PAP government to reign in the prices of residential properties to make them more affordable. This is also why there is a requirement for developers to sell out any project within a 5 year period from the time they acquired the land or else be slapped with an additional stamp duty. If the developers play punk, expect additional measures from the government.

There has been complaints aplenty regarding the rising cost of doing business in Singapore and a big complaint is that of rental. Everyone was surprised when the government recently said that they would keep an eye on REITs to make sure that they are not driving up rentals in any anti-competitive manner. Cooling measures for industrial and commercial properties on the way, perhaps?

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Non-landed home prices in the secondary property market in Singapore continued to soften in the first quarter of 2012, with those in the prime districts 9, 10 and 11 faring worst.

According to a report by DTZ Research, resale prices of luxury condominiums and freehold condominiums in the prime districts fell by 0.8 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively.

Resale prices of leasehold condominiums in the suburban areas registered a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3 per cent, a moderation from the 1.0 per cent growth in Q4 2011.

Transaction of non-landed homes also slowed to about 470 units per month over January and February. This was also lower than the monthly average of about 1,400 units in 2011.

Source: CNA, 21 March 2012.

Related posts:
1. Leverage up and buy investment properties now?
2. Selling a private property just got harder.

Office S-REITs VS. Industrial S-REITs (4).

For some time now, I have been saying it is better to be vested in industrial S-REITs rather than office S-REITs. My research supports this idea.

Now, with the government imposing more cooling measures on residential properties, many investors turned their attention to industrial and commercial properties instead. This has hastened the rising prices of such properties.

Indeed, when a relative of mine called to enquire about Low Keng Huat's Paya Lebar Square, she was told that a modest office unit would set her back by $2,000 psf and the project was almost sold out!

Is it a good idea to pay top dollar to invest in commercial properties in Singapore now?

Over 2H11, we saw office rents peak as Grade A rents declined 0.5% QoQ in 4Q11 while Grade B rents fell by 0.4%. We expect further rental dips in FY12 and believe, from our channel checks, that Grade A rents has already fallen 3-5% QoQ in 1Q12. Going forward, we think office capital values could come under pressure with declining rentals (and) we now forecast office rentals to fall 10-15% in FY12.

Industrial REITs are likely to continue to post healthy YoY growth in distributable income and DPUs for the financial quarter ending 31 Mar, driven by completion of acquisitions, sound occupancy rates and possibly positive rental reversions. Four industrial REITs will also be concluding their financial years. We believe the REITs may likely experience revaluation gains in their portfolios.

Source: OCBC Research.

Related post:
Office S-REITs VS. Industrial S-REITs (3).

Yongnam: Immediate support at 25c.

Yongnam's share price has been rather stable. As a counter's share price sees a reduction in volatility, Bollinger Bands would start to narrow and "squeeze".  The beginning of such a squeeze is being observed here.

Daily chart.

A trading strategy using Bollinger Bands is to look out for an oncoming squeeze. This could be the precursor of an impending surge in price.

Couple this observation with how the rising 50dMA seems capable of acting as support in this case, there is a chance of Yongnam's share price going higher in time. The 50dMA also coincides with a trendline support which connects the lows of mid December 2011, February 2012 and March 2012.

Volume has dwindled while the OBV has flatlined. Not much activity either way. Who would blink first? The bulls or the bears?

Yongnam's fundamentals are strong and technically, there is support for its share price at 25c.

The counter should also be trading CD come end of the month. The proposed dividend is 1c per share.

However, if support at 25c should break, Yongnam's share price could fall to 24c, a longer term support.

Weekly chart.

Related post:
Yongnam: FY 2011 results.

Murdoch University Double Major Degree programmes.

Kaplan Higher Education Institute, one of Singapore’s preferred private education institutions is partnering Murdoch University from Australia to bring in the most extensive courses in South East Asia!

This partnership brings to Singapore a wide variety of Double Major Degree programmes including those that have previously never been offered in any local university - Sports, Security, and Environment-related courses.

Murdoch University is committed to innovation and quality higher education that can be applied on a global level. Murdoch University has an outstanding reputation as an institution that provides students with a quality education and recognised academic standing within an engaging and caring environment.

Are you interested in the next step on a path of lifelong learning?

Find out more about Murdoch University: here.

Dettol - Flippy & Hoofy's Clean Quest!

Flippy and Hoofy’s Clean Quest Contest is a Facebook game launched by Dettol in conjunction with the release of the limited edition Dettol No-Touch Hand Wash featuring two cute cartoon character – Flippy the Penguin & Hoofy the Zerba.

Play the game and stand to win an iPad: here.

Capitaland: Technical analysis can be simple.

Some readers asked me if I could teach them technical analysis. I have always declined, saying that it is easy enough to pick up. There are many good books out there and many good websites where one could pick up technical analysis.

Technical analysis can be quite simple. For example, this weekly chart for Capitaland shows the MACD rising in a wavelike pattern into positive territory. This means that longer term momentum has turned positive. It is also quite clear that price action broke out of a base formation and has seen a reversal in trend.

Now, does technical analysis tell us if the price would continue to rise or fall? I would be hesitant to say "yes". Technical analysis shows us resistance and supports. It shows us the probability of something happening but never certainty.

In this instance, technical analysis tells us that there is probably resistance at $3.25 in the event that the share price continues to rise. It also tells us that immediate support is probably at $2.75 in case of a pull back. $2.75 is the top of a double bottom formation and it is also where the 50w MA has flatlined. It is also where the rising 20w MA could form a golden cross with the 50w MA in the coming weeks.

Anyone who is thinking of going long would probably be happy doing so in case of a pull back to $2.75 thereabouts while anyone thinking of selling could do so at $3.25. Simple enough? Just don't think of technical analysis as the Holy Grail.

CapitaMalls Asia: Going XD on 23 April.

CapitaMalls Asia is paying 1.5c dividend per share on 9 May. It will go XD on 23 April.

What is termed as a true golden cross is going to transpire in the daily chart. This is when the 100d MA forms a bullish crossover with the 200d MA. This is usually an indication that the downtrend is well and truly behind us and any pull back to support is an opportunity to add to or initiate long positions.

A pull back could well happen. The rising price in recent session has not been accompanied by higher volumes. Indeed, the MACD might see a lower high forming, signalling a weakening positive momentum. In fact, a negative divergence could form.

We could see price pulling back initially to the support provided by the 20d MA at $1.56 and perhaps even $1.455. However, bear in mind that in rather bullish circumstances, we could see price moving sideways, doing a correction using time. In an uptrend, a sideway movement is more bullish than bearish.

A successful breakout would see the first upside target at $1.83.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

Sabana REIT: Resistance to watch.

One month ago, I mentioned that Sabana REIT's unit price saw higher lows formed since August 2011 and that it was repeatedly testing gap resistance at 91c and 91.5c. I wondered then whether its unit price could break resistance to go higher. It did, going on to break resistance at 93.5c, and, in the last few sessions, tested resistance at 95c. It ended the day at 96c a unit with a massive buy up after market closed today.

Sabana REIT is my largest investment for passive income and what I have now is part of my core investment for passive income. So, it is unlikely that I would sell unless its unit price becomes very much over valued. Keeping the status quo, Sabana REIT would generate approximately 38% of my passive income from S-REITs alone this year.

I am expecting a higher DPU in the next quarter as contributions from acquisitions made in recent months as well as savings from lower cost of funding for newer loans kick in.

Technically, if the bullish momentum continues, 99.5c could be the next level to be tested in time.

At 99.5c, its distribution yield is still a very attractive 8.84%. I still feel that a fair value for the REIT's units is closer to $1.10 per unit which would see its distribution yield compressing to 8%.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: How much higher?

People are waking up to the stronger numbers as well as the attractive and potentially growing income streams of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

It is interesting also to note that some analysts are reporting that the REIT has not one but two strong sponsors. In the distant past, few would even talk about the REIT in a positive light, much less the sponsors. This shows how durable the negativities created by the recapitalisation of the former MI-REIT were.

Personally, on hindsight, I am thankful for the negativities which made people avoid the REIT as it allowed me to accumulate more units of the REIT at prices way below its fair value.

The REIT is currently my second largest investment and is an important passive income generator for me. Keeping the status quo, it is expected to generate some 32% of my total passive income from S-REITs alone this year. Will I keep the status quo?

My current investment in the REIT forms part of my core investment for passive income. It is not for trading. Unless its unit price rises significantly, I am likely to keep the status quo.

Although fundamentally attractive, we can only wait and see how much higher Mr. Market is willing to pay for the REIT's units. $1.10 is the resistance to watch. Overcoming this convincingly could see $1.125 and $1.15 tested next.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY 2012.

First REIT: To sell or not to sell?

I have received questions from readers and friends if they should sell their units in First REIT given its stellar performance of late. I can't really advise if they should sell or hold on to their investments. I am not qualified to give advisories and neither do I have the inclination to do so.

I would say the following:

Fundamentally, First REIT is rock solid. One should, however, remember that its bumper income distributions in the last two quarters were due to contribution from the sale of its Adam Road property. If this contribution were removed, we are more likely to see a DPU of 1.6c per quarter. This means an annualised DPU of 6.4c. At today's high of 87c per unit, that would be a base distribution yield of 7.35%. Its larger peer, Parkway Life REIT, has a distribution yield of about 5.26% at a unit price of $1.825.

Technically, First REIT's unit price is continuing its march higher on strong volumes. There is vigorous accumulation going on if the OBV is anything to go by and although price action looks like it is becoming parabolic, the bullish momentum could push price higher to test 88c or even 89c. However, fatigue would very likely set in and a pull back to support at 82c could take place in time.

My remaining investment in First REIT is part of a core investment for passive income. It is unlikely that I would sell my remaining position. If I were trading First REIT, however, 87c to 89c would seem like very attractive prices for divestment. There, I have said it.

Related post:
First REIT: FY2011 results.

Beauty & the Beast, the 3D experience.

Walt Disney Animation Studios’ magical classic “Beauty and the Beast” returns to the big screen in Disney Digital 3D™, introducing a whole new generation to the Disney classic with stunning new 3D imagery.

The film captures the fantastic journey of Belle (voice of Paige O’Hara), a bright and beautiful young woman who’s taken prisoner by a hideous beast (voice of Robby Benson) in his castle.

Despite her precarious situation, Belle befriends the castle’s enchanted staff—a teapot, a candelabra and a mantel clock, among others—and ultimately learns to see beneath the Beast’s exterior to discover the heart and soul of a prince.

Featuring unforgettable music by Howard Ashman and Alan Menken, and an enormously talented vocal ensemble, “Beauty and the Beast” was the first animated feature to receive a Best Picture nomination from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and is also the first animated feature to cross the $100 million plateau in its initial release.

For trailers and more, visit Disney Studios Singapore: here.

China Minzhong: Initiated long position.

Anyone who is a follower of Jim Rogers would know that he is always asking people to become farmers and he is quite serious. Jim is of the opinion that farm incomes will increase exponentially in the next few decades. This stems partially from his belief that we should be invested in real assets like agricultural commodities which would retain their value in the face of heightened inflation around the world.

Recently, I have been looking at China Minzhong, a company which the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) has a 17% stake in. Prudential reduced its stake to less than 5% while Templeton increased its stake to above 5%.

There is an abundance of research which has been done on China Minzhong and it is mostly good. Here are links to some analyses:

1. CIMB (14 Feb 2012)
2. Kim Eng (14 Feb 2012)

China Minzhong has made some large capital expenditure last year and it would take some time to show positive results. The longer term picture looks promising and buying on weakness could be rewarding for anyone who takes a longer term perspective here.

See slides presentation dated 13 Feb 2012: here.

1. Net income margin is consistently above 25%.
2. NAV per share: RMB 5.70 (approximately S$ 1.14)
3. Net gearing ratio: 0.11x
4. Current ratio: 2.7x
5. Half year EPS: RMB 0.48 (approximately S$0.096)

Expectations are for second half of its financial year to show higher EPS.

Technically, China Minzhong's share price emerged from a terribly persistent downtrend at the start of the new year. It then took a while to overcome resistance provided by the 100dMA before hitting a road block set by the 200dMA. It is now supported by the 50dMA and if that goes, we could see a retreat to the 100dMA which is currently at 93c.

Notice that volume has been higher on white candle days and lower on black candle days in recent sessions. Volume seems to be reducing as price pulled back. Consolidation could continue for a while more as weaker holders are shaken out.

I have initiated a long position today at 98.5c. If its share price were to weaken to 93c, I would probably add to my position. 93c is, in my opinion, a very important support if it should be tested. If it should break, we could see price retreating to test the lows of 2011 with 84c as an immediate target.