China Hongxing: Bottoming?

In an earlier analysis on 14 March, I mentioned that "A broader head and shoulders pattern which stretched over a duration of about nine months is now quite obvious.  This, coupled with the obvious downtrend of all the moving averages suggest that more downside is on the cards.  Accumulating at supports in an uptrend is a good idea.  Accumulating at supports in a downtrend is a different story as supports could quickly become resistance.

"Using Fibo lines, we see that 14.5c is a 123.6% support.  Unless there is an upmove with meaningful volume in the near future, a test of the 138.2% Fibo support is most likely and that is at 13c.  Thereafter, the 150% Fibo support is at 12c. Further downside cannot be discounted as a valid head and shoulders pattern would see the ultimate downside target somewhere at 10c."

Although 11.5c is now a many times tested support since 24 May, is it the bottom or just a floor?  On 15 Jun, volume expanded as the 20dMA resistance at 12c was taken out. The following session saw a follow through that tested the resistance provided by the 50dMA at 13.5c. The euphoria was short lived as the 50dMA proved too strong to be taken out and price has been pushed down since.  The 20dMA is once again resistance at 12c and, in the last session, a gravestone doji was formed as price closed once more at 11.5c.

A very interesting fact is found in the OBV.  Although the price is clearly in a downtrend, OBV is flattish. This suggests a lack of heavy distribution. Also, as price fell, volume has generally declined with the exception of one or two sessions. These observations suggest that most of the sellers are probably done selling by now.

The 20dMA has flattened which suggests that the short term downtrend has halted. However the longer term MAs are still declining. So, the trend is still down. However, if we look at the MACD, it has formed a higher low and has recently flattened.  Despite being in negative territory, this positive divergence between price and MACD is an indicator that the downtrend is losing strength.

Should we jump back in and go long here?  Looking at the momentum oscillators, we see that the MFI is down both over the shorter term as well as the longer term. This suggests a lack of demand.  The RSI shows the same picture which suggests a sustained momentum in the decline in price. These indicators are not spotting any positive divergence with price.

So, the conclusion is that although the speed of decline has slowed and the counter seems to have found a stronger support at 11.5c, the trend is still down and the momentum is negative. The price action of this counter has proven treacherous before and unless there is a clear sign of bottoming, I would avoid going long.  Any long position taken here should be a smallish hedge and nothing more.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Downside target?

Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

STI drops 0.4% to 2,991.68 at closing
Tuesday, 27 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: This counter has formed two dragonfly dojis in a row.  Look at the OBV and we see steady accumulation as steps are formed upwards. The MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  This is a REIT with strong numbers and technically, it has limited downside as well.  Still one of my favourite high yields.

CapitaMalls Asia: A white hammer! Another reversal signal! Dare I believe it? $2.12 support identified in earlier TAs was hit today.  Closing at $2.15 is actually closing at resistance.  So, if this is indeed a reversal signal, there should be confirmation tomorrow.  Let's see.

Golden Agriculture: Volume expanded on a black candle day as price closed at 60c, the support provided by the 20dMA. If this support breaks, the next support is at 57.5c. The many times tested resistance at 62.5c remains the immediate upside target.

Healthway Medical: The declining 20dMA has made contact with the 50dMA. A dead cross is imminent. Price touched a low of 15.5c, a price the counter has not seen since 3 Mar this year.  That this happened on much higher volume is ominous. MACD is under zero which suggests that the positive momentum is over. This is confirmed by the declining MFI, forming lower highs. The positives? OBV is flat which suggests a lack of accumulation AND distribution.  Stochastics shows a deeply oversold situation. So? I do not expect any crash in price but a gradual drift downwards is probable, in the absence of any positive catalyst.

China Hongxing: Much lower volume.  OBV flattened.  Price unchanged. MFI and Stochastics are still declining and seem ready to move into oversold territory.  For now, it seems that the selling pressure has abated but the technicals are definitely more negative overall. Any upside will meet with resistance at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up ever so slightly on a white candle day. It could very well have been a doji since only 2 lots were done at 23c at closing, seemingly in an effort to form a white candle. That price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band is obvious.  This usually suggests that the uptrend has lost momentum. In case the price does continue moving higher, 23.5c remains the initial resistance, followed by 25.5c and 27c.  Initial support is at 22c.

Suntec REIT achieves DPU of 2.513 cents for 1Q
Tuesday, 27 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

U.S. Finally Starts Dumping Citigroup
-- Smart Move, Tim Geithner!
Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:30pm EDT by Henry Blodget

 
Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Singapore recovery becoming broad-based, entrenched, Lim says
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI gains 0.5% to 3,002.62 at closing
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal signal from the last session was negated today.  This is becoming a habit for this counter. Price closed at $2.15, a 123.6% Fibo support.  Further weakness would bring in $2.12, $2.10 and $2.07 as supports as suggested by Fibo lines.  MFI and Stochastics are firmly in oversold terrritories. MACD is still moving downwards away from the signal line.  It is my guess that when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal.

Golden Agriculture: The move up today was unconvincing.  Lower volume formed a hangman. The lack of volatility in recent sessions is obvious as the Bollinger bands begin to converge.  Price will have to move in one direction soon.  OBV shows continuing accumulation while the MFI has been exhibiting higher lows and higher highs.  MACD is above zero but is somewhat sluggish.  The leaning is towards a move upwards and any retracement should find initial support at 60c, followed by 57.5c.

Saizen REIT: Price action is trapped between the 20dMA and the 50dMA at 17c and 16.5c, respectively. Nothing exciting is happening.  OBV is flat.  MFI is declining.  Stochastics has flattened. Longer term uptrend is still intact.

Courage Marine: MFI has emerged from the overbought region. OBV is flat. MACD has made a bearish crossover with the signal line. All signs suggest that we are seeing weaker holders giving up their positions.  Initial support is at the 20dMA, 22c.  For the more cautious, waiting to see if the 20dMA is able to hold up is a good idea as the next support in case the 20dMA gives way is at 20c which is some way to fall.  Of course, it might be a good idea to hedge, as usual.

NOL says container shipping volumes up 32% and average revenue up 12% in Period 3
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: It seems that the sell call in my last TA was spot on.  OBV down.  MFI down although not oversold yet.  MACD formed a bearish crossover with signal line and is beneath zero. Volume expanded enormously on a black candle day. The lows of 27 April and 23 June 09 which were at 12c might soon be tested if the selling momentum persists.  Any rebound in the meantime would find a cluster of resistance at 15c, 15.5c and 16c.  Not for the faint hearted.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

STI gains 0.3% to 2,988.49 at closing
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17.  A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones.  A buy signal.

The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory.  Is this a reversal?  Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April.  Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD.  Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze.  A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.

China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals.  So, I am wondering whether to cut.

Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c.  The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down.  I might cut loss on Monday.

Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat.  So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.

Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions.  If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so.  Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA.  I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts.  This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance.  It is now at 17.5c.

The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c.  Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.

In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend.  The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.

First REIT’s 1Q distributable income up 1.3% to $5.2m
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Maria Bartiromo on Goldman Case: Where's the Fraud?

Posted Apr 22, 2010 04:23pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein


Related posts:
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?
Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

STI drops 0.5% to 2,967.65 at closing
Wednesday, 21 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: The technical picture looks decidedly bearish.  OBV continues to decline as distribution continues.  MACD is pulling away downwards from the signal line. MFI is hovering above the oversold region while the Stochastics is deep in the oversold region.  Price is now testing the previous low of $2.19.  Continuing downward movement should see the next support at $2.12 tested.  If price starts basing at the current level, we might see the formation of a double bottom.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji.  I still see support at the 50dMA at 56.5c and would accumulate if price descends to that level.  By next week, the rising 50dMA would be at 57c.  100dMA is at 54.5c.  Price has not been able to break 62.5c in three separate sessions in recent memory.  So, that is likely to be an important psychological resistance.  I might sell some of my remaining shares at that level, therefore.

Saizen REIT: An extreme low volume day. We have a buy signal on the MACD. MFI bounced off 50% and OBV rose slightly. All MAs are still rising.  Price is still above the 20dMA which is at 16.9c currently.  In another few sessions, the 20dMA would be at 17c.

China Hongxing: Price closed at 15c, the support provided by the 20dMA, on reduced volume.  20dMA is still rising.  50dMA is still falling.  A golden cross in the making, it seems.

Courage Marine: Volume expanded and price traded at the gap resistance of 23.5c the whole session.  MACD is rising.  OBV shows keen accumulation.  MFI pushes higher into the overbought region. 25.5c is next if 23.5c is taken out convincingly. Positive momentum is very much present.

SPH: This elephant is flying. Another strong white candle day as volume expanded with price closing at $4.12.  OBV shows unabating accumulation. $4.12 was a resistance level in June 2008 that proved too strong.  If this is taken out, price could go on to test $4.33 but before that, another resistance could be found at $4.21.  This was a support level that finally gave way in May 2008 and was not recaptured since.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

The STI clawed back 20.44 points today to close at 2,981.31 on respectably high volume. U.S. Futures are all showing an upward bias as of now.  This bull has legs.

Despite guarded sentiment, Phillip Securities says longer-term outlook for market still positive: “The reaction to Goldman’s fraud charges could eventually be trumped by what has been very positive S&P 500 earnings results.” Written by The Edge, Tuesday, 20 April 2010 13:30.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another black candle day as price closed at the support identified at $2.20.  My overnight buy queue was done.  Will the counter retest the low of $2.19 made in February this year or would price bottom here and start a basing process to form a double bottom?  Only time will tell.  Stochastics is suggesting that the counter is very oversold and further downside should see the next significant support at $2.12.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji as price stays above the rising 20dMA.  Volume has reduced. All MAs are trending upwards. From the MFI, it is obvious that positive buying momentum is lacking. Hard to say which way this might go.  So, no fresh positions for now.  Would buy some if price retraces to 56.5c.

China Hongxing: Closing at 15.5c, it formed a gravestone doji as price touched a high of 16c today.  Although it is a gravestone doji, I think it more positive than negative here as price did not touch 15c the whole day.  This means that, for the first time since 26 January, China Hongxing managed to trade at or above the 50dMA the whole day. The MACD continues to rise and seems to be sneaking a peek above zero, heralding a return of positive momentum. However, volume is anaemic and this will have to expand for a convincing move up.

Courage Marine: Low volume day as MFI and OBV both turned up slightly. Not much to say here. I would accumulate on pullbacks. Overcoming the gap resistance at 23.5c should test the immediate target of 25.5c.  Eventual target is still 27c.

Saizen REIT: Someone sold down 3m warrants and 1m shares at 7.5c and 16.5c respectively, rather late in the day.  This caused the OBV and MFI to both turn down.  16.5c is now the new floor for Saizen REIT.  This is a support level provided by the 50dMA.  My overnight buy queue for more warrants at 7.5c was filled.

Healthway Medical: 16c is still holding up nicely as the support.  OBV is flat.  No obvious distribution.  MFI is declining gently, which is logical. This counter might just be basing at 16c for a while. Further downside will find support at 15c.

NOL: Formed a higher low yesterday as it closed at $2.24 today, forming a wickless white candle.  Nice.  Uptrending OBV suggests continuing accumulation. Taking out the recent high of $2.35 would suggest an immediate target of $2.50.  Eventual target is still $2.60.  A rising 20dMA and candlestick supports should limit downside in the near term to $2.11 but a stronger support is found at $1.96.

Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings of $3.3 billion, or $5.59 a share, on revenue of $12.78 billion. Earnings nearly doubled from a year ago and the results were well ahead of consensus expectations. Posted Apr 19, 2010 05:16pm EDT by Aaron Task.





Related post:
Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

STI retreated today on lower volume to close at 3,007.19.  The market is digesting its gains and this is not something I would worry about for now.

STI down 0.5%, struggling to hold above 3,000
Friday, 16 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: Coincidentally, DMG & Partners issued a buy call at 2.50pm, approximately an hour after my post about how the counter might present a trading opportunity this afternoon.  Their target price is 22c.  Just like their target price of 30c for Healthway Medical, it is a 12 months target.  So, I would stick to my earlier chart reading, recognising that if 15.5c is cleared, the next resistance levels are at 17.5c and 18.5c.  For the report by DMG & Partners, please see: 16 Apr 10 China Hongxing: Buy.

 

Healthway Medical: Technically, the weakness is obvious as the support at 16c has been tested four out of five sessions this week.  This support is provided by the flat 50dMA.  If 16c goes, the rising 100dMA should provide the next level of support at 15c.  OBV is flat and this should be viewed positively as it suggests that there is no heavy selling down of the stock.  So, downward pressure is somewhat limited.

Golden Agriculture: Closed down 1c at 59.5c on heavier volume. MACD has made contact with the signal line and is poised for a bearish crossover.  Things are looking somewhat bleak but let's see if the rising 20dMA will be able to push up the price next week.  The higher high on the MFI does suggest a return of positive buying momentum. This would confirm that the counter is doing a correction using time.  If the 20dMA fails to hold up as the support next week, the rising 50dMA is at 56.5c and the rising 100dMA is at 54.5c.  These two longer term MAs would provide stronger supports then.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price has broken down from the sideways movement. I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55.

Courage Marine: Demolished the gap resistance at 23.5c in early morning trading to touch a high of 24c.  The gap resistance soon reasserted itself and the counter ended the session at 23.5c.  The white candle day took place on the back of much increased volume.  OBV turned up sharply, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI continues pushing higher into overbought territory but if the bullishness continues, the index could stay overbought for much longer.

SPH: Price pushed higher to close at $4.07 but volume has reduced significantly. MFI has pushed higher into overbought territory. OBV continues its upward trajectory, suggesting continuing accumulation. Upside target is still $4.20 but it remains to be seen if this could be achieved.  Volume should expand as price pushes higher for the upmove to be sustainable.

Saizen REIT:  Extreme low volume day.  Volume has not been so low in more than two weeks.  There has been some profit taking going on but price has stayed firmly above the 20dMA.  MFI shows a decline in buying momentum and OBV shows that some distribution has been taking place.   Despite all this, price has stayed at 17c and this shows strong support.  If 17c gives way, we should find a stronger support at 16.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  It is my personal believe that 16.5c is the new floor for Saizen REIT if it is ever tested.
Please see: Saizen REIT: A symmetrical triangle?

Related post:
Charts in brief: 15 April 10.
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

I first blogged about China Hongxing on 6 March 2010.  In that post, I said: "Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share. The share price closed at 14c on 5 March. CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether."  Please see: China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

On 14 March 2010, I blogged about the company again.  In that post, I said: "The decline in China Hongxing's price seems to have halted and rebounded as it was supported by the channel support at 14c. The decline in price has been accompanied by a decline in trading volume. The Stochastics has just turned up from the oversold region. These indicators suggest that downward pressure is limited but it might be a temporary respite." Please see: China Hongxing: Downside target.

As it turns out, the limited downward pressure allowed China Hongxing to bottom at 14c. Its price made a bullish move up to touch a high of 16.5c before closing at 16c on 7 April on the back of very high volume.  The 20dMA has been rising gently and the counter has been trading above it since 7 April.  Immediate support is now at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.  Immediate resistance is at 15.5c, provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since 8 April, volume has been reducing as price was capped by the declining 50dMA.  Yesterday, volume expanded as price broke resistance to touch 16c but ultimately closed at 15.5c.  The MACD has been rising and seems poised to cross zero to herald the return of positive momentum.  Strictly speaking, I do not see a buy signal yet. However, technically, this counter might be prime for a breakout.  A breakout would see the 100d and 200d MAs acting as resistance at 17.5c and 18.5c respectively.  Might the current setup be good for a trade?

Charts in brief: 8 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia: A doji, another reversal signal, was formed today with price closing at $2.29 with the lowest volume in weeks.  A reversal signal again?  Dare I hope?

Golden Agriculture:  Yesterday, I said that with "both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal".  The counter went to touch a low of 59c today before closing at 60c.  MFI and OBV continue to decline and we see a sell signal on the MACD. If we look at the chart, the 20dMA has not been very reliable as a support in past instances.  I would look to the 50dMA instead this time for a strong support.  It is currently at 55c.

Saizen REIT: A black candle day as price closed at 17c on lower volume.  Likely short term profit taking.  It is quite clear from the chart that 17c was a resistance level since 22 Jan 10.  We need confirmation in the next few sessions to see if 17c is resistance turned support.  If it is, chances are that price action would be forming a new base at 17c before moving higher.  Such is the slow motion rise of Saizen REIT but the longer term MAs are rising and there is no question that the longer term uptrend is intact.

Healthway Medical: Another gravestone doji as price closed unchanged at 16.5c.  This is somewhat impressive but with the 20dMA and 50dMA both completing their downturns, a move downwards to critical support at 16c looks most likely in the near term.  The MFI has also formed a lower high and this suggests that buying momentum is definitely weakening.

SPH: Reversal signal was negated as SPH formed a nice and long wickless white candle, closing at $3.94.  OBV is rising strongly as accumulation carries on.  MFI has flattened and is not overbought.  A push towards $4.00 is now looking very likely.

AusGroup: Touched a high of 64c on respectable volume but closed at 62c.  This candlestick is very bearish.  63c remains the immediate resistance.  On top of this, the MACD has a sell signal.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low.  This suggests that buying momentum is still strong.  OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet.  AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey.

Oceanus: Sell signal confirmed today on the MACD.  Price closed at 36.5c which is support provided by the 100dMA.  We will need confirmation whether this is the new support level.  If it breaks, next support is at 35c.

Genting SP: Volume shrank as price closed at 89.5c.  It would be interesting to see if it continues basing at this level or moves to test the recent low of 83.5c in time.  With MFI and Stochastics near oversold regions, I do not expect any drastic downward movement in price if news stay benign.

China Hongxing: No follow through from yesterday as price formed a black candle, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  Immediate support remains at 15c.  Fundamentally, the company has many challenges and made some bad decisions last year.  The slightest positive newsflow in such a situation might have a strong positive impact on the share price.

Some readers asked if I am vested in all the counters I cover.  I'm not.  I am not vested in the last four counters here, for example.  I do the TA for these for various other reasons.  If you happen to be vested in these counters, I hope the TA is useful to you.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

CapitaMalls Asia: Closed unchanged at $2.28 after touching a high of $2.31, forming an inverted black hammer, which, by the way, is another possible reversal signal.  We have been getting many of these reversal signals and none has followed through thus far. MFI has turned down but OBV is flat.  Overall, the suggestion is that the price has found support and is currently going through a basing process.

Golden Agriculture: First black candle in many days and a spinning top at that.  With both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal.  Channel resistance is at 64c but will the price move to test this before the week is up? It could happen but, technically, it is obvious that weakness is setting in.

Saizen REIT: Volume has expanded for four days in a row with price closing at 17.5c, forming a wickless white candle, today.  The MFI has surpassed the previous high and is nowhere near overbought.  The buying momentum could strengthen.  OBV has risen sharply, suggesting heightened accumulation.  The MACD continues pulling away from the signal line on the upside, which is bullish.  The declining 50dMA has now turned up, joining the 20d, 100d and 200d MAs in cutting out ascending paths.  The Bollinger bands are just beginning to widen. A move to test the previous high at 18c seems close at hand.

Healthway Medical: Despite a rising MFI, suggesting some positive buying momentum, price action formed a gravestone doji today. Even more ominous, we see the 20dMA beginning to turn down.  MACD is moving closer towards zero.  Unless some heavy volume buy ups happen in the next two or three weeks, the 20dMA seems destined to form a dead cross with the 50dMA and the MACD would be in negative territory.  Support remains at 16c and if this breaks, we should see stronger support at 15c.

SPH: Slight reduction in volume today as the MFI turned down.  OBV is still rising as accumulation continues unabated.  However, the white spinning top formed today suggests indecision.  If this is confirmed as a reversal signal, the journey towards $4.00 would be aborted and $3.82 is the immediate support.

AusGroup:  It seems that 63c remains insurmountable for now.  Price formed a doji, closing at 62c, today.  Although MFI has formed a new high, volume has reduced slightly over a three day period.  There is still a chance of 63c being taken out but volume has to expand on renewed buying ineterest for this to happen.  If volume dwindles, a downward move towards support at 60c is more likely.

Oceanus:  Touched a high of 38c but closing at 37c, price formed a gravestone doji today.  We have a sell signal on the MACD.  Immediate support at 36.5c.  This is where we find the flat 100dMA.  Stronger support is to be found at 35c, where we see a confluence of the 20d, 50d and 200d MAs. Recap: Oceanus.

Genting SP: Touched a high of 92.5c but was resisted by the 20dMA and closed at 90c. Genting SP has emerged from its downtrend in mid March and is now moving sideways. The stochastics and MFI are both near oversold territories.  Price seems to have found support for now and further weakness is expected to be mild if news remain benign. Recap: Genting SP: Obvious downtrend.

China Hongxing: This counter broke out today unexpectedly on high volume, touching a high of 16.5c, it closed at 16c, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  If it manages to close above 16c in the next session, the upside targets are at 18c (100dMA) and 19c (200dMA).  Immediate support is provided by the upturning 20dMA at 15c.  Breaking 16c convincingly would most probably see punters coming in to push it higher towards 18c. Recap: China Hongxing: Downside target?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT:  Price opened and closed at 22c today, forming a dragonfly doji.  This is the first time it has happened since end January 2010.  We also see a buy signal on the MACD.  OBV is up.  MFI is up.  The Bollinger bands look to be on the verge of widening and if that follows through, this counter is probably going to test the top of the base formation at 23c although, from a chart pattern perspective (where I look out for symmetry), it seems a tad early.  Indeed, the low volume seen today adds an element of caution. Recap: Charts in brief: 19 Mar 10.

LMIR: This counter has to close above a bunching of MAs which are supports turned resistance.  If price could close firmly above 49c in the next few sessions, this objective woud have been achieved.  MFI is rising towards 50%.  Stochastics is rising from the oversold region.  The rising 200dMA is at 47c and should provide support in the event of further weakness. Fundamentals remain strong and I would accumulate on weakness.  Recap: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 6 April 2010.

Charts in brief: 19 Mar 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: This is more a buy because of the strong fundamentals but it's interesting to see how the price has not been able to move beyond 21.5c this week.  The price is basically being resisted by the flat 50dMA at 21.5c.  The rising 20dMA is currently at 21c and it looks like it is on course to do a golden cross with the 50dMA.  Nice. This might take another couple of weeks.  This counter is still basing and the top of the base formation is at 23c.

China Hongxing: A sell signal is seen on the MACD today, the first in almost two weeks.   The descending 20dMA nears 15c next week and this might pressure the price to move lower.  Please see: China Hongxing: Downside target?

FSL Trust: It had a nice run up recently but the price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands. Is this a sign that price will correct downwards? If we observe how the price action has been affected by the rising 20dMA recently, we would notice that the 20dMA was pushing up the price, forming steps in the process. So, FSL Trust has been doing a correction using time instead of a correction in price. Could it continue its winning streak? The technicals point to the negative.

The MFI has been in decline in the last few sessions, suggesting that the buying momentum is fizzling out.  The MACD's rise is also less vigorous now and the distance with the signal line has narrowed, increasing the chances of a bearish crossover.  The 200dMA has also flattened, together with the 50d and 100d MAs.  Being trapped in a sideways trading range might a more probable near term development.  Support is seen at 60c thereabouts, the confluence of the 50d and 100d MAs.

Golden Agriculture:  MACD seems poised to make a bearish crossover with the signal line.  Price action formed a doji today, signalling indecision.  Someone said to me that the price refuses to fall to the supports I have identified.  Well, we could consider a hedge and buy a bid above initial support which means buying at 56c.  Hedging has always worked for me.  All MAs are still uptrending and I believe that buying at supports is still the way to go.

Healthway Medical:  Similarly here, the MACD seems poised to make a bearish crossover with the signal line.  Although the MFI has been forming lower highs and lower lows, the malaise has been accompanied by decreasing volume.  So, there is no heavy selling. 

Rising 20d and 50d MAs are at 16.5c and 16c respectively.  It remains to be seen if the price action will respond to these two MAs or will it respond more to the 100dMA like what happened in mid-February.  Remember that low volume does not mean that price cannot drift lower.  This is quite evident in the price decline which happened from 26 Jan to 12 Feb on declining volumes.  The 100dMA is currently at 14c.

Saizen REIT:  Saizen REIT closed unchanged at 16.5c, a price it has maintained for the last three sessions.  This is admirable if we notice how the counter has been subjected to some heavy selling which suggests that support is strong.  The uptrend, though gentle, is quite obvious.

China Hongxing: Downside target?

On 6 Mar, I had a post titled, "China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust."  In that post, I said: "Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share. The share price closed at 14c on 5 March. CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether."

In 12 Mar, Lim & Tan Securities, remarked that although China Hongxing's price has declined, at the current level, it is still expensive compared to peers.  "While Hongxing has declined 14% since we downgraded it to a Sell on 2 March ’10, we see no reason to change it due to its still demanding valuations and potential for more market share loss..."

Technically, I mentioned that "..14c is currently at the channel support. However, if this breaks, the next support is at 12c and a stronger one is at 10c. Any upmove from 14c is likely to be just a rebound from oversold conditions and would meet with resistance at 16c, thereabouts, which is provided by the descending 20dMA. If, in the unlikely event that the 20dMA is taken out, very strong resistance is provided by a confluence of the 50d, 100d and 200d MAs, which are at 19c, thereabouts."

The decline in China Hongxing's price seems to have halted and rebounded as it was supported by the channel support at 14c.  The decline in price has been accompanied by a decline in trading volume.  The Stochastics has just turned up from the oversold region.  These indicators suggest that downward pressure is limited but it might be a temporary respite.

A broader head and shoulders pattern which stretched over a duration of about nine months is now quite obvious.  This, coupled with the obvious downtrend of all the moving averages suggest that more downside is on the cards.  Accumulating at supports in an uptrend is a good idea.  Accumulating at supports in a downtrend is a different story as supports could quickly become resistance.

Using Fibo lines, we see that 14.5c is a 123.6% support.  Unless there is an upmove with meaningful volume in the near future, a test of the 138.2% Fibo support is most likely and that is at 13c.  Thereafter, the 150% Fibo support is at 12c. Further downside cannot be discounted as a valid head and shoulders pattern would see the ultimate downside target somewhere at 10c.

The following video clip is quite funny.  It has a twist in the end.   I thought since this post is about a sneakers manufacturer, why not?  In case you are wondering, no, I'm not working for Microsoft and they are not paying me to do this.  Enjoy:



Related post:
China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

Flipping through the latest issue of The EDGE, I found a full page write up on China Hongxing.  It is rather negative with a title like "China Hongxing unveils plan for cash pile, but analysts fear it is coming too late".

"China Hongxing's fast growing cash pile has been a source of consternation for investors for more than a year.  Some were irked by the company's apparent refusal to invest the money or return it to investors... Some were even concerned whether it actually had the cash reflected in its accounts."

Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share.  The share price closed at 14c on 5 March.  CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether.

I decided to take a look at China Hongxing's charts.  Looking at the MACD, it is in negative territory, pulling away downwards from the signal line. The MFI has dipped into the oversold region and formed a lower high, signalling negative buying momentum. 

I have drawn the downtrend channel for China Hongxing in light green. 14c is currently at the channel support.  However, if this breaks, the next support is at 12c and a stronger one is at 10c.  Any upmove from 14c is likely to be just a rebound from oversold conditions and would meet with resistance at 16c, thereabouts, which is provided by the descending 20dMA.  If, in the unlikely event that the 20dMA is taken out, very strong resistance is provided by a confluence of the 50d, 100d and 200d MAs, which are at 19c, thereabouts.