Revaluing the RMB.

Revaluing the RMB is a matter of when, not if.  It is widely known that the RMB is undervalued and the Chinese government realises that it has to let the RMB appreciate. This would bring down the cost of living in the country and help put a lid on inflationary pressures.  However, China wants to do so at its own pace. 

The Chinese government is and has always been very concerned about not losing face. A confrontational attitude from outsiders would do more harm than good.

When the RMB is revalued upwards and we can expect this to happen in a series of steps in time, foreign companies with assets in China and with earnings denominated in the RMB will surely benefit. Also, foreigners should find investing in Chinese companies and assets attractive in such a situation as the value of their Chinese investments in their home currencies would likely increase.

China is on track to overtake Japan as the largest economy in Asia and companies which are well positioned to benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy will most likely do better than peers which are not.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

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Yuan Gains May Help China Vault Past Japan to Be No. 2 Economy

April 19, 2010, 1:36 AM EDT


April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s anticipated move to let its currency appreciate may help the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

 A 5 percent revaluation against the dollar could see quarterly gross domestic product exceed Japan’s as soon as July- to-September this year, estimated Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZ. The Chinese economy is likely to vault past Japan by year’s end even if the yuan remains stable, Liu said in an e-mailed interview.

Read complete article here:
Yuan gains may help China vault past Japan to be No. 2 economy.

-------------------------------------------------------
Weak Chinese Currency "Not Just An American Problem,"
FT's Martin Wolf Says.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein



Related posts:
New global economic leadership.

Genting SP: Downward drift continues.

STI gains 0.4% to 2,980.69 at closing
Thursday, 22 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

I am getting somewhat bored with saying more or less the same things everyday for a while now.  The market has not been very exciting either way.  So, I am giving myself a break from doing a "Charts in brief" post today.  However, Genting SP's price caught my eyes as it touched a low of 85c before closing at 86c today.  I am not vested in this counter but the amount of interest it has generated as the biggest story in Singapore's entertainment and hospitality industries in recent times got me looking on as well.

Technically, it would seem as if a test of the previous low at 83.5c achieved on 4 March is on the cards. The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs are all downtrending.  The MACD is still below zero and has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line.  OBV shows distribution taking place.  MFI shows a lack of buying momentum.  Stochastics has just dipped into oversold territory. 

A bearish picture is obvious, no doubt. However, the selling down lacks strong conviction, in my opinion.  If we look at 18 Feb which was the day the $1.02 support gave way completely, the volume was extremely high.  Volume has been relatively low since that day as price retreated.  I am not saying that price could not go lower but I am saying that the current selling pressure does not seem as great as it was earlier this year.  Having said this, price could go lower and I see 80c as a significant support level.

What if 80c gives way? Well, a look at the weekly chart shows the 100wMA at 75c and this should provide a stronger support.

Related post:
Genting SP: Stale bulls' second chance?

Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

STI drops 0.5% to 2,967.65 at closing
Wednesday, 21 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: The technical picture looks decidedly bearish.  OBV continues to decline as distribution continues.  MACD is pulling away downwards from the signal line. MFI is hovering above the oversold region while the Stochastics is deep in the oversold region.  Price is now testing the previous low of $2.19.  Continuing downward movement should see the next support at $2.12 tested.  If price starts basing at the current level, we might see the formation of a double bottom.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji.  I still see support at the 50dMA at 56.5c and would accumulate if price descends to that level.  By next week, the rising 50dMA would be at 57c.  100dMA is at 54.5c.  Price has not been able to break 62.5c in three separate sessions in recent memory.  So, that is likely to be an important psychological resistance.  I might sell some of my remaining shares at that level, therefore.

Saizen REIT: An extreme low volume day. We have a buy signal on the MACD. MFI bounced off 50% and OBV rose slightly. All MAs are still rising.  Price is still above the 20dMA which is at 16.9c currently.  In another few sessions, the 20dMA would be at 17c.

China Hongxing: Price closed at 15c, the support provided by the 20dMA, on reduced volume.  20dMA is still rising.  50dMA is still falling.  A golden cross in the making, it seems.

Courage Marine: Volume expanded and price traded at the gap resistance of 23.5c the whole session.  MACD is rising.  OBV shows keen accumulation.  MFI pushes higher into the overbought region. 25.5c is next if 23.5c is taken out convincingly. Positive momentum is very much present.

SPH: This elephant is flying. Another strong white candle day as volume expanded with price closing at $4.12.  OBV shows unabating accumulation. $4.12 was a resistance level in June 2008 that proved too strong.  If this is taken out, price could go on to test $4.33 but before that, another resistance could be found at $4.21.  This was a support level that finally gave way in May 2008 and was not recaptured since.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

Tea with AK71: Buy me a cuppa tea?

I cannot remember who suggested that I should put a donation widget in my blog.  I remember it was during the early days of this blog.  Was the person Jason, CT or CL?  Hmmm...  Well, guess what.  I've just done it.  You will see the button on the left asking for a donation to my pocket money fund. ;-)

All donations are done securely through PayPal.  So, if you are feeling generous or if you feel that I deserve it, a small donation to buy me a cuppa tea would be nice.

Personally, I feel quite happy that I am learning so many new high tech stuff about blogs.  One more step away from being in the Jurassic Age for me, I guess.  ;-p

Heartfelt thanks to everyone who has visited and made this blog come alive!

Tea with AK71: A PDA phone?

Nuffnang is running a HTC mobile phone campaign on my blog for a few days and this triggers something personal in my mind.

Many friends own PDA phones but I have not found the need for one myself so far.  Of course, I have been described by many as an IT dinosaur.  So, I am not a good reference, I guess.

A friend just bought a HTC mobile phone a month ago and he says that it's pretty decent and very useful. Maybe, just maybe, I should consider a PDA phone too.  Do you own a PDA mobile phone? What is your experience with it? Is a HTC good or do you think that other PDA phones are better? I would appreciate any good advice.  :-)

Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

The STI clawed back 20.44 points today to close at 2,981.31 on respectably high volume. U.S. Futures are all showing an upward bias as of now.  This bull has legs.

Despite guarded sentiment, Phillip Securities says longer-term outlook for market still positive: “The reaction to Goldman’s fraud charges could eventually be trumped by what has been very positive S&P 500 earnings results.” Written by The Edge, Tuesday, 20 April 2010 13:30.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another black candle day as price closed at the support identified at $2.20.  My overnight buy queue was done.  Will the counter retest the low of $2.19 made in February this year or would price bottom here and start a basing process to form a double bottom?  Only time will tell.  Stochastics is suggesting that the counter is very oversold and further downside should see the next significant support at $2.12.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji as price stays above the rising 20dMA.  Volume has reduced. All MAs are trending upwards. From the MFI, it is obvious that positive buying momentum is lacking. Hard to say which way this might go.  So, no fresh positions for now.  Would buy some if price retraces to 56.5c.

China Hongxing: Closing at 15.5c, it formed a gravestone doji as price touched a high of 16c today.  Although it is a gravestone doji, I think it more positive than negative here as price did not touch 15c the whole day.  This means that, for the first time since 26 January, China Hongxing managed to trade at or above the 50dMA the whole day. The MACD continues to rise and seems to be sneaking a peek above zero, heralding a return of positive momentum. However, volume is anaemic and this will have to expand for a convincing move up.

Courage Marine: Low volume day as MFI and OBV both turned up slightly. Not much to say here. I would accumulate on pullbacks. Overcoming the gap resistance at 23.5c should test the immediate target of 25.5c.  Eventual target is still 27c.

Saizen REIT: Someone sold down 3m warrants and 1m shares at 7.5c and 16.5c respectively, rather late in the day.  This caused the OBV and MFI to both turn down.  16.5c is now the new floor for Saizen REIT.  This is a support level provided by the 50dMA.  My overnight buy queue for more warrants at 7.5c was filled.

Healthway Medical: 16c is still holding up nicely as the support.  OBV is flat.  No obvious distribution.  MFI is declining gently, which is logical. This counter might just be basing at 16c for a while. Further downside will find support at 15c.

NOL: Formed a higher low yesterday as it closed at $2.24 today, forming a wickless white candle.  Nice.  Uptrending OBV suggests continuing accumulation. Taking out the recent high of $2.35 would suggest an immediate target of $2.50.  Eventual target is still $2.60.  A rising 20dMA and candlestick supports should limit downside in the near term to $2.11 but a stronger support is found at $1.96.

Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings of $3.3 billion, or $5.59 a share, on revenue of $12.78 billion. Earnings nearly doubled from a year ago and the results were well ahead of consensus expectations. Posted Apr 19, 2010 05:16pm EDT by Aaron Task.





Related post:
Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Most of my portfolio hardly budged as the STI retreated 1.5% today.  The exceptions are the likes of CapitaMalls Asia and SPH.  AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, First REIT and Saizen REIT are holding steady.  I believe that any further weakness would bring out the buyers as the problem in the USA with Goldman Sachs should not have any material impact here in Asia.  It is not a financial meltdown or anything like it.  It is a legal matter and the proceedings are domestic in nature.

STI drops 1.5% to 2,960.93 at closing
Monday, 19 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitalMalls Asia: Closed at $2.21.  I have put in my buy queue for tomorrow at $2.20.  In the last three sessions (today inclusive), the volume has been reducing as price retreated.  Stochastics has dipped into oversold territory.  MFI is declining fast and OBV shows some distribution.  Overall, not a pretty picture.  Any purchase of shares in this company is now based on fundamentals, not technicals as expectations of a feisty reversal is out the window for now.

Golden Agriculture: Price closed at 59c, supported by the rising 20dMA.  A doji is formed.  This is, of course, a possible reversal signal.  The MACD has just completed a bearish crossover.  Further weakness will see support at 56.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  I might reload then.

Healthway Medical: >2.6m shares sold down at 16c at 5.05pm, creating a gravestone doji in the process.  This is the first time the counter has closed at 16c since 3 March 2010.  The MACD has gone under zero, suggesting an end of positive momentum.  16c remains a critical support.  If this goes, the next support is at 15c.  That would be a nice price to accumulate some.

Saizen REIT: Some profit taking continues. MFI has formed a lower high but the OBV is flat, suggesting that although the buying momentum has stalled, there is no heavy selling down going on. The rising 50dMA is at 16.5c which coincides with my believe that 16.5c is the new floor for the counter and should be a strong support.  Uptrend is intact.

SPH: A big black candle day as price managed to close just 1c above $4.00.  Any further weakness will see support at $3.89 where we find the rising 20dMA.  The rising 50dMA is at $3.82.  I would accumulate on weakness.  Uptrend is intact.

Courage Marine: Down 1c, MFI is dipping out of overbought territory.  Any weakness should find support at 21.5c.  The flat 200dMA should provide support at 20c in case of further weakness.  I would accumulate on weakness as I like the fundamentals over the next few months at least.  Uptrend is intact.

China Hongxing: Closed 0.5c lower on lower volume. Signs are still good that this counter is probably prime for a breakout. Price action is now trapped between the 50dMA (15.5c) and the 20dMA (15c) in a crab-like pincer.  Going by the rising MFI and OBV since 30 March, the chances are good that price is likely to move higher.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

Avoiding the memory effect.

Human beings remember well things which are particularly unpleasant or particularly pleasant.  In short, human beings remember extremes very well.  However, as investors, we really have to stay level headed and be in tune with the present, the current reality, and not let the past shackle us.

For example, I have a friend who bought a few hundred lots of Healthway Medical's shares when it was 12.5c, if I remember correctly, last year and sold most of them at 13c or so just before the price ran up.  The investment in Healthway Medical was one premised on its relatively strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation.  However, any shareholder of the company at the time would remember the months of malaise in its price action last year and my friend divested most of his shares.  With only 100 lots left, he became reluctant to sell even as the price rose to hit the eventual technical target I identified at 19.5c shortly after.

When we spoke, he told me, "but I only have 100 lots left". I told him that he must not base his decision on the larger position he once had.  He had to make his decision on what he had then which was 100 lots.  So, the question to ask was: "if he did not have those hundreds of lots which he sold off cheap (on hindsight) and 100 lots were all he had to begin with, would he sell some, if not all, to realise some gains?"  Freed from memories of the past, the answer was a loud and clear "yes".  Never be chained down by what could have been.  Focus on the present and what is.

Similarly, I have friends who told me that they should have bought Healthway Medical shares at 10c when I first started accumulating in mid 2009.  That's the beauty of hindsight, isn't it?  These same friends also said that they should have started accumulating Saizen REIT at 10c.  The memories of the past chained them down and they could not act in the present.

I would tell anyone that I only started accumulating Saizen REIT at 13c, not 10c, and I kept on buying as its price rose. I bought more at 16.5c too.  Why?  The uptrend is intact and this has not changed.  The fundamentals are still compelling.  There is no reason for me to sell if the very reasons which compelled me to buy have not changed and are still valid.  Mind you, these reasons could be fundamental, technical or both.  I am not a purist.  I am a pragmatist.

I might have shared some of these thoughts before in some other posts.  I cannot remember but if I am repeating myself, I beg your pardon.  Please humour me.  Have a great Sunday!

Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.

I visited Google Analytics just now to see how my blog is doing.  I was surprised when I found that the most viewed post is actually something I wrote in December last year when I first started this blog.  I guess I am not the only one who is interested in building a high yield portfolio.  Sweet!  Or do you prefer teh-o kosong?

Here are the top 5 posts of my blog based on the number of pageviews for the period under review (March 17 to April 16, 2010):

No. 1: High yield portfolio. 
Dated: 24 Dec 2009.

No. 2: Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.
Dated: 3 Apr 2010.

No. 3: Portfolio strategy: Undervalued high yield counters.
Dated: 22 Feb 2010.

No. 4: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.
Dated: 17 Mar 2010.

No. 5: Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.
Dated: 24 Feb 2010.

Given the relative "youth" of the post in second place, I guess the interest in Courage Marine must be quite strong.  Good luck to all fellow shareholders. :)

Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

STI retreated today on lower volume to close at 3,007.19.  The market is digesting its gains and this is not something I would worry about for now.

STI down 0.5%, struggling to hold above 3,000
Friday, 16 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: Coincidentally, DMG & Partners issued a buy call at 2.50pm, approximately an hour after my post about how the counter might present a trading opportunity this afternoon.  Their target price is 22c.  Just like their target price of 30c for Healthway Medical, it is a 12 months target.  So, I would stick to my earlier chart reading, recognising that if 15.5c is cleared, the next resistance levels are at 17.5c and 18.5c.  For the report by DMG & Partners, please see: 16 Apr 10 China Hongxing: Buy.

 

Healthway Medical: Technically, the weakness is obvious as the support at 16c has been tested four out of five sessions this week.  This support is provided by the flat 50dMA.  If 16c goes, the rising 100dMA should provide the next level of support at 15c.  OBV is flat and this should be viewed positively as it suggests that there is no heavy selling down of the stock.  So, downward pressure is somewhat limited.

Golden Agriculture: Closed down 1c at 59.5c on heavier volume. MACD has made contact with the signal line and is poised for a bearish crossover.  Things are looking somewhat bleak but let's see if the rising 20dMA will be able to push up the price next week.  The higher high on the MFI does suggest a return of positive buying momentum. This would confirm that the counter is doing a correction using time.  If the 20dMA fails to hold up as the support next week, the rising 50dMA is at 56.5c and the rising 100dMA is at 54.5c.  These two longer term MAs would provide stronger supports then.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price has broken down from the sideways movement. I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55.

Courage Marine: Demolished the gap resistance at 23.5c in early morning trading to touch a high of 24c.  The gap resistance soon reasserted itself and the counter ended the session at 23.5c.  The white candle day took place on the back of much increased volume.  OBV turned up sharply, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI continues pushing higher into overbought territory but if the bullishness continues, the index could stay overbought for much longer.

SPH: Price pushed higher to close at $4.07 but volume has reduced significantly. MFI has pushed higher into overbought territory. OBV continues its upward trajectory, suggesting continuing accumulation. Upside target is still $4.20 but it remains to be seen if this could be achieved.  Volume should expand as price pushes higher for the upmove to be sustainable.

Saizen REIT:  Extreme low volume day.  Volume has not been so low in more than two weeks.  There has been some profit taking going on but price has stayed firmly above the 20dMA.  MFI shows a decline in buying momentum and OBV shows that some distribution has been taking place.   Despite all this, price has stayed at 17c and this shows strong support.  If 17c gives way, we should find a stronger support at 16.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  It is my personal believe that 16.5c is the new floor for Saizen REIT if it is ever tested.
Please see: Saizen REIT: A symmetrical triangle?

Related post:
Charts in brief: 15 April 10.
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

I first blogged about China Hongxing on 6 March 2010.  In that post, I said: "Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share. The share price closed at 14c on 5 March. CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether."  Please see: China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

On 14 March 2010, I blogged about the company again.  In that post, I said: "The decline in China Hongxing's price seems to have halted and rebounded as it was supported by the channel support at 14c. The decline in price has been accompanied by a decline in trading volume. The Stochastics has just turned up from the oversold region. These indicators suggest that downward pressure is limited but it might be a temporary respite." Please see: China Hongxing: Downside target.

As it turns out, the limited downward pressure allowed China Hongxing to bottom at 14c. Its price made a bullish move up to touch a high of 16.5c before closing at 16c on 7 April on the back of very high volume.  The 20dMA has been rising gently and the counter has been trading above it since 7 April.  Immediate support is now at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.  Immediate resistance is at 15.5c, provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since 8 April, volume has been reducing as price was capped by the declining 50dMA.  Yesterday, volume expanded as price broke resistance to touch 16c but ultimately closed at 15.5c.  The MACD has been rising and seems poised to cross zero to herald the return of positive momentum.  Strictly speaking, I do not see a buy signal yet. However, technically, this counter might be prime for a breakout.  A breakout would see the 100d and 200d MAs acting as resistance at 17.5c and 18.5c respectively.  Might the current setup be good for a trade?

Tea with AK71: A frog in a well.

As I grow older and as I get to know more people and see more things, the feeling of personal insignificance increases. 

The growing knowledge of my ignorance is humbling.

I am but a frog in a well, seeing only a patch of sky. I have asked myself before in the past if I would ever jump out of this well. 

However, over time, I have stopped asking this question. Why? 

I wonder if I really want to jump out of this well. 

I have everything I need in this well and I am protected from predators. Perhaps, what I need is just a bigger well so that I can see a larger patch of sky. 

Better to be a happy and healthy frog in a larger well than to be a frog freely hopping in the open and be in constant danger of being preyed upon?

Is this a bad thing, to be contented?  

Or perhaps I am just growing apathetic with age? 

Could it be wisdom as some told me that with age comes wisdom?  

I am not so sure since my usual rejoinder is that this is not always true.

Charts in brief: 15 April 10.

Another high volume day for the STI.  The index closed hardly changed today.  Unless there are more definite signs to the contrary, the bias is for the index to continue rising.

PM Lee sees ‘good’ growth after record first quarter: Bloomberg
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Turning in a set of impressive numbers has not helped its share price as it closed at $2.27 today.  A big black candle day on higher volume.  Fundamentally, this company is very sound.  Technically, it has been rather weak.  It has been consolidating since breaking down from an uptrend on 23 March.  If downward pressure persists, I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55 which is a few cents more than DBS Vickers' target price of $2.51.

Retail sales rise a second month as economy rebounds
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Mixed signals persist as a white inverted hammer was formed today with price closing the session at 61.5c.  Could we be looking at a correction using time?  Could Golden Agriculture's price be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up?  We have had a series of reversal signals but none has been confirmed as price closed firmly at or above 60c, the immediate support, in the last few sessions.  MFI has formed a higher high after forming higher lows.  Buying momentum is positive. OBV has not declined dramatically. The situation is very dicey.  Wait and see.  No fresh positions and I will hold on to my remaining shares in case the price goes higher.

NOL: Price did not close above $2.30 today and the buy signal on the MACD has been negated.  Volume is much reduced compared to the previous session.  This suggests that this is profit taking rather than a massive selldown.  Further downside should be capped at $2.17, a many times tested resistance turned support.  This is followed by $2.12.  A continuing trek upwards would need to see the price closing above $2.30 firmly and the eventual target is $2.60 then.

Singapore March container traffic up 10% from Feb
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Clinging on to 22.5c, the MFI remains in overbought territory.  I would accumulate on weakness and queue to buy more at 21.5c (one bid above initial support).  Courage Marine's strong fundamentals and the improving Asian economies bode well for the company's fortunes in the near term.

SPH: A very nice white candle day on heavy volume as the price closed firmly above $4.00 at $4.04.  The upside target is now $4.20.  OBV is rising strongly, signalling increased accumulation and the MFI has pushed further into overbought territory. Any pullback would see $3.84 acting as a strong support.

AusGroup:  Sell signal seen on the MACD.   MFI in overbought territory.  A pullback should find support at 63.5c.  70c is the immediate target.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

Blog's readership profile.

You might have noticed the big blue box on the right side of my blog.  In case you think it's an advertisement, it's not.  I am collecting information on my blog's readership profile.  From the latest figures, my blog receives, on average, 500 unique visitors a day but so far only 23 visitors have taken the poll since it started.  :-(

Please take a few seconds to answer three simple questions in my poll if you have not done so already. Thank you very much.  :-)

Tea with AK71: Money making.

This might be the beginning of another series like "Replies from AK71".  This time, it is "Tea with AK71".  Imagine having tea with me one afternoon, realising much to your dismay what a talkative person I am, and listening to my thoughts on myriad issues.  Small talk, that's exactly what "Tea with AK71" is going to be about.  Another side of AK71?  For sure.  Darjeeling, anyone?

"Something I say more and more as I grow older is, "we can't make all the money in the world".  It is probably something that many others say too but how many actually appreciate the essence of this simple phrase?  When I miss a money making opportunity, I would shrug my shoulders and say, "what to do?".  I do not see any point in berating myself or even making a promise that it will not happen again because I am almost sure that it will happen again. 

Picture by Montwerx.

"I always say that chasing after perfection is like chasing after a rainbow.  We can keep running towards a rainbow but will we get closer to the rainbow? The rainbow is an optical phenomenon after all.  Pretty to look at but unreachable.  Don't be too hard on ourselves. 

"I make my money and others make theirs.  We have different paths and make our money our own ways.  We can share our methods and our experience but we would probably not have the same experience. This is natural and there's nothing wrong with it."

Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

A most sterling performance by the STI today as it surged 48.14 pts to end the session at 3,019.74 on heavy volume. People vested in NOL, DBS, UOB and SembCorp, just to name a few, would have made quite a bit of money.

Singapore shares end near 2-year high on surge in 1Q GDP
Wednesday, 14 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  Despite an impressive 1Q 2010 report, its share price barely moved and closed up 1c at $2.30 as it went XD.  Consolidation continues.
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were $110.9 million for 1Q 2010, 174% higher than the $40.5 million for 1Q 2009.

CapitaMalls Asia records 1Q net earnings of $97m
Wednesday, 14 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

NOL: An impressive white candle day as price shot past the recent high of $2.24 to close at $2.30 after touching a high of $2.34.  We have a buy signal on the MACD.  OBV and MFI have both turned up. With such strong momentum, it is likely to power ahead.  Closing above $2.30 convincingly would give an eventual target of $2.60.

Golden Agriculture:  Another higher low formed on the MFI. Price action formed an inverted white hammer, another reversal signal.  Signals continue to be mixed for Golden Agriculture.  Will the improving buying momentum push the price higher?  Initial support has been established at 60c.  Channel resistance is at 64.5c.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up sharply as volume increased significantly.  Price closed up 0.5c at 22.5c, forming a long legged doji, a reversal signal, as it touched 23c, the previous high.  If the reversal signal is valid, price should find initial support at 21c.  If the chart pattern plays out (neckline at 21.5c), we should see gap resistance at 23.5c taken out and the chart pattern resistance at 25.5c tested with a possibility of a push to the eventual target of 27c.  Could we be seeing a beautiful symmetry in the making?

SPH: Volume expanded as price touched a high of $3.99, just 1c shy of the target of $4.00.  MFI has pushed deeper into overbought territory and OBV has turned up sharply.  Forming a white spinning top today as price closed at $3.97, will it push higher tomorrow?  $4.00 remains the resistance to watch.  If this is taken out, the next target is $4.20.  A retracement would find initial support at $3.84.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buy signal seen on the MACD.  Price touched a high of 23c before closing at 22c on much higher volume. OBV turned up.  MFI has formed a higher low.  22c is still the resistance to watch but if price closes decisively above 22c in the near future, it would be resistance turned support.  23c is the immediate target.  Immediate support is at 21.5c.

 Related post:
Charts in brief: 13 April 10.

Charts in brief: 13 April 10.

Golden Agriculture: A black spinning top.  This is the seventh reversal signal in a row and seeing how price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band, a retracement to supports is probable: 20dMA is at 58c and 50dMA is at 56c.  MFI formed a higher low but failed to form a higher high today.  The OBV shows a lack of strength in accumulation.  Of course, as usual, an upward movement in price with high volume would negate all bearish signals.  This does not look likely.

Saizen REIT: Some profit taking happening today.  17c is initial support.  If this goes, a much stronger support is at 16.5c.
Notice of a Director's (including a director who is a substantial shareholder) Interest and Change in Interest: 12-04-2010, Starich purchased 1,000,000 Warrants on the open market.  Mr Arnold Ip Tin Chee is one of the beneficiaries of a trust which directly own Starich. Hence, Mr Ip is deemed to be interested in the 1,000,000 warrants held by Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd in favour of Starich.

Healthway Medical:  The counter traded at one price only today, 16.5c.  The Bollinger bands are squeezing, it seems, and this usually means an increased volatility in price action is not far off.  16c remains a critical support to watch.  On the face of it, things are not looking good for this counter.

SPH: A long legged doji confirmed the black candle sell signal from the previous session.  Sell signal confirmed on the MACD as well.  Price has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands.  Support is at $3.84. 
SPH has declared an interim dividend of 7 cents per share.

SPH reports 30% rise in 2Q net profit to $113m
Tuesday, 13 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Although on signifcantly reduced volume, we have another black candle today.  With MFI in the overbought region and with OBV turning down, the probability is higher for the counter to retrace to support.  I see initial support at 21c.

AusGroup: In my last TA, I said "Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so." A big black candle day today as price closed lower at 66.5c.  However, of note is the much lower volume on this pullback. The selldown has been mild.  Any further selldown would find initial support at 63.5c

Related post:
Charts in brief:12 April 10.

Charts in brief: 12 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia:  No follow through on what had seemed like a promising up day in the previous session as a wickless black candle was formed today.  It is reasonable to assume from today's action that this counter is trapped in a narrow range between $2.33 and $2.28.  When everyone finally tires of looking at the charts, this counter might just surprise on the upside.

Golden Agriculture:  A long legged doji.  This is a possible reversal signal as price does not seem able to break resistance at 62.5c.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low and OBV continues to rise.  Golden Agriculture might just try to push higher.  Channel resistance is at 64.5c this week.

Saizen REIT: Initial resistance remains at 17.5c. Volumes on down days have been relatively lower and this suggests a strong underlying support.  A retest of 18c is still very likely.  The descending 100wMA is also at 18c and this is likely to be a strong resistance.

Healthway Medical:  Today's price action dashed the hopes of stale bulls.  The counter's downward bias is re-asserting itself. Critical support remains at 16c.

SPH: Sell signal seen on the MACD.  Big black candle day as price closed at $3.94.  MFI is in overbought territory.  A pullback should find initial support at $3.84.

Courage Marine:  A premature attempt to move higher, it seems.  Price ended unchanged. Any retreat in price should find support at 21c.  I would accumulate on weakness as improving fundamentals make this counter more promising over the next few months.

AusGroup: Closed at 67.5c resistance level.  Reached a high of 69c. Next resistance is at 70c.  Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 9 April 10.

Two great minds on Greece and gold.

I found these clips of recent separate interviews with Marc Faber and Jim Rogers as they shared their views on Greece and gold.  Make good sense, as usual.

5 March 2010
Marc Faber on CNBC - Greece and gold.



26 March 2010
Jim Rogers on CNBC - Greece and gold.





Related posts:
Gold as an insurance against inflation.
Gold or silver.
Real value of gold.

Charts in brief: 9 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia: The reversal signal was confirmed today on moderately higher volume as a white candle was formed.  Significantly, price closed above resistance provided by the 20dMA for the first time since 23 March.  The MACD has made contact with the signal line and looks set for a bullish crossover.  Stochastics has formed a higher low as it emerged from the oversold region.  A retest of $2.41 is most likely in the event of a continuing upmove in price.

Golden Agriculture:  Mixed signals seen.  Sell signal confirmed on the MACD on a white candle day as price closed higher at 61c, forming a white spinning top in the process.  The MFI has formed a higher low but note that volume is lower today, an up day, compared to the last two days which were down days.  In TA, we work on probabilities based on the weight of the evidence. This is one of those occasions where I cannot tell if the chances are higher for further upside or a correction downwards.

Saizen REIT: After a short bout of profit taking yesterday, Saizen REIT formed a dragonfly doji today on higher volume as price closed at 17.5c.  MFI continues rising as the sell signal seen on the MACD yesterday was negated.

Healthway Medical: Price broke resistance today and touched a high of 17.5c before closing at 17c, the resistance provided by the declining 20dMA.  Volume expanded and it seems that the MACD might do a bullish crossover with the signal line.  MFI has formed a higher low, suggesting a return of buying momentum. OBV has turned up.  All these are providing hopeful signals to people who remain bullish on Healthway Medical in the short run.  Another chance to sell at 18.5c, perhaps?

SPH: Another white candle day for SPH as it closed at $3.97, just three cents short of the target I have for it at $4.00.  The MACD is tearing away upwards from the signal line.  Very bullish. OBV is rising steeply, suggesting ongoing accumulation.  The MFI has moved into overbought territory but the momentum suggests that $4.00 is almost a foregone conclusion.  After, $4.00?  I see $4.20 as the next resistance.

Courage Marine:  The price closed at 22.5c today, a high achieved on 29 March.  A white candle day on the back of increased volume is reassuring for bulls. OBV has turned up and the MACD is moving higher up away from the signal line.  The technicals suggest further upside and my eventual target remains at 27c, the high achieved on 28 Sep 09.  Gap resistance at 23.5c will have to be overcome first in such an instance.

AusGroup: In my last TA, I said that "the MFI has formed a higher low. This suggests that buying momentum is still strong. OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet. AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey".  AusGroup closed at 65.5c today and looks like it might push higher.  Congratulations to those vested.


Related post:
Charts in brief: 8 April 10.

Dry bulk carriers: Jason shares.

A reader, Jason, has provided, in my opinion, a wealth of information on dry bulk carriers and what we should be concerned about in the next few years.  I would like to highlight Jason's comments here in a proper post:

"...there are monthly publications that cover dry bulk extensively. You can try shipping.capitallink.com - links to lots of shipping information, ship indexes and its weekly newsletter has got plenty of information also on dry bulk shipping.......



"Just so i give you an idea of what dry bulk shipping is all about category of ships:

"VLOCs (very large ore carriers) - primarily used to carry iron ore, Vale will become the owner of the largest VLOC fleet in the world.


"Purpose is to get economies of scales to move iron ore from Brazil to China, compete against BHP/Rio who are much nearer vis-a-vis Australia.


"Capesizes: Moving mostly the hard dry bulk cargoes viz iron ore + coal (usually 120,000 dwt to 220,000 dwt range)


"Panamax: moves coal/iron ore/grains (70,000 dwt to 120,000 dwt)


"Handysizes/Handymax/Supramax: moves everything under the sun - offers the greatest flexibility due to their size, can stop at any port of call to unload (5,000dwt to 69,000dwt)


"To gauge charter rates, you have to look at their respective indexes : BCI (baltic capesize index), BPI (panamax index), BHI (handy index)......charter rates for panamaxes have overtaken capesizes! This was driven by the grains markets - 5 biggest producers being USA, South America (Argentina/brazil), Russia, Europe, Australia.


"Right now, fleets are looking to Asia for business - China (iron ore + coal), India (coal), Japan (iron ore, coal), Korea (coal, iron ore) why? Cos Asia houses some of the biggest steel producers in the world! China - Baosteel/Shagang/many more. India - Arcelor Mittal. Japan - Nippon Steel. Korea - POSCO


"Right now,USA gets its iron ore from backyard (domestic + Canada). Europe still imports from Australia/Brazil but not much cos their economy is still in the toilet for now.


"Coal is very much part of the steel production (used in the blast furnaces) and power plants, of which India especially is lacking in the latter while China needs the former! Why the boom in China? Biggest car mkt in the world (13.6m cars in 2009), property boom, infrastructure spending from new stimulus package in 2010.


"So ships will be everywhere but mostly with an eye for Asia. China is gobbling up every known commodity on earth - copper/aluminium/zinc etc, wheat, cotton....rates keep going cos charterers pay more to get ships out from the far east to Europe/baltic/atlantic.


"So long as Courage Marine can focus its biz on China/Asia/India exclusively, the upside is there. And we all know doing biz in China is all about guan xi......:) Keep that guan xi and you are OK.


"As for the progressive new ships coming on board, the ship owners will suffer the most whilst the charterers will be laughing to the bank - i can pick and choose my shipper!"

In my reply, I suggested that the demand for dry bulk carriers is likely to remain strong in Asia but as Jason pertinently pointed out, the world of dry bulk carriers would be focusing on Asia to pick up the excess capacity and with new ships joining the fray in the coming years, a lid might be put on earnings with increased competition. 

Based on my analysis of Courage Marine's numbers, with their strict cost management and very low gearing, I believe that they will be able to do relatively well.  If revenue reduces and costs stay low, we can weather storms.  If revenue reduces and costs are high, we are most likely on a sinking ship.

Courage Marine is also very focused in offering their services in the Greater China region where growth is the strongest in the world.  Since 2001, Courage Marine has built a good name for itself in this region.  It is small but nimble. As long as Asia continues to do well, Courage Marine would be a key beneficiary.

A China Bubble? People Have Been Saying That Forever
Posted Apr 08, 2010 09:46am EDT by Henry Blodget



Related post:
Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.

Charts in brief: 8 April 10.

CapitaMalls Asia: A doji, another reversal signal, was formed today with price closing at $2.29 with the lowest volume in weeks.  A reversal signal again?  Dare I hope?

Golden Agriculture:  Yesterday, I said that with "both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal".  The counter went to touch a low of 59c today before closing at 60c.  MFI and OBV continue to decline and we see a sell signal on the MACD. If we look at the chart, the 20dMA has not been very reliable as a support in past instances.  I would look to the 50dMA instead this time for a strong support.  It is currently at 55c.

Saizen REIT: A black candle day as price closed at 17c on lower volume.  Likely short term profit taking.  It is quite clear from the chart that 17c was a resistance level since 22 Jan 10.  We need confirmation in the next few sessions to see if 17c is resistance turned support.  If it is, chances are that price action would be forming a new base at 17c before moving higher.  Such is the slow motion rise of Saizen REIT but the longer term MAs are rising and there is no question that the longer term uptrend is intact.

Healthway Medical: Another gravestone doji as price closed unchanged at 16.5c.  This is somewhat impressive but with the 20dMA and 50dMA both completing their downturns, a move downwards to critical support at 16c looks most likely in the near term.  The MFI has also formed a lower high and this suggests that buying momentum is definitely weakening.

SPH: Reversal signal was negated as SPH formed a nice and long wickless white candle, closing at $3.94.  OBV is rising strongly as accumulation carries on.  MFI has flattened and is not overbought.  A push towards $4.00 is now looking very likely.

AusGroup: Touched a high of 64c on respectable volume but closed at 62c.  This candlestick is very bearish.  63c remains the immediate resistance.  On top of this, the MACD has a sell signal.  However, the MFI has formed a higher low.  This suggests that buying momentum is still strong.  OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet.  AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey.

Oceanus: Sell signal confirmed today on the MACD.  Price closed at 36.5c which is support provided by the 100dMA.  We will need confirmation whether this is the new support level.  If it breaks, next support is at 35c.

Genting SP: Volume shrank as price closed at 89.5c.  It would be interesting to see if it continues basing at this level or moves to test the recent low of 83.5c in time.  With MFI and Stochastics near oversold regions, I do not expect any drastic downward movement in price if news stay benign.

China Hongxing: No follow through from yesterday as price formed a black candle, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  Immediate support remains at 15c.  Fundamentally, the company has many challenges and made some bad decisions last year.  The slightest positive newsflow in such a situation might have a strong positive impact on the share price.

Some readers asked if I am vested in all the counters I cover.  I'm not.  I am not vested in the last four counters here, for example.  I do the TA for these for various other reasons.  If you happen to be vested in these counters, I hope the TA is useful to you.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

To Raelynn and Jason.

Dear Raelynn and Jason,

For some strange reason, Blogger has been acting up and some of the comments in my blog have mysteriously vanished.  I have checked with the blogmaster of Bully the Bear and it happened to him too.

Today, I received three comments for moderation but upon clicking, there were only two comments.  One went missing.  The two remaining comments are from the two of you.  To the writer of the missing comment, you might want to send in your comment again.

I clicked to publish your comments and it seems they have now gone missing.  So, I am posting in my blog to let you and other readers know that we have a problem with disappearing comments right now with Blogger.  I hope it gets resolved soon.

Raelynn,

Learning FA and TA takes time.  I am still learning and that's the honest truth.  :)  It is something that you and your partner can do together.  It's more enjoyable to have someone close to share the learning process. 

You are also right about how FA for REITs and FA for companies would look at different things.  In my reply to Jason below, you will see how I have overlooked an aspect in my analysis of Courage Marine as shipping is an industry I am new to.

As for CapitaMalls Asia, its parent is Capitaland.  We can say that CapitaMalls Asia is the parent of CapitaMalls Trust and CapitaRetail China, I suppose, or maybe it could be more accurately referred to as their sponsor?

That's all I can remember from your comment.  If I have missed anything out, please let me know.

Jason,

Yes, you are right about what is lacking in my research on Courage Marine.  I have considered current capacity and I have considered how the excess capacity has to be soaked up first and that shipping companies would not at this point in time place order for new ships but I have neglected the additional capacity that might be coming on line. 

Shipping is a new industry for me. Please, do share with us the information you have from your occupational hazard.  Much obliged.  :)

Charts in brief: 7 April 2010.

CapitaMalls Asia: Closed unchanged at $2.28 after touching a high of $2.31, forming an inverted black hammer, which, by the way, is another possible reversal signal.  We have been getting many of these reversal signals and none has followed through thus far. MFI has turned down but OBV is flat.  Overall, the suggestion is that the price has found support and is currently going through a basing process.

Golden Agriculture: First black candle in many days and a spinning top at that.  With both the MFI and OBV turning down, which suggest reduced buying momentum and the presence of some distribution, the black spinning top possibly signals a reversal.  Channel resistance is at 64c but will the price move to test this before the week is up? It could happen but, technically, it is obvious that weakness is setting in.

Saizen REIT: Volume has expanded for four days in a row with price closing at 17.5c, forming a wickless white candle, today.  The MFI has surpassed the previous high and is nowhere near overbought.  The buying momentum could strengthen.  OBV has risen sharply, suggesting heightened accumulation.  The MACD continues pulling away from the signal line on the upside, which is bullish.  The declining 50dMA has now turned up, joining the 20d, 100d and 200d MAs in cutting out ascending paths.  The Bollinger bands are just beginning to widen. A move to test the previous high at 18c seems close at hand.

Healthway Medical: Despite a rising MFI, suggesting some positive buying momentum, price action formed a gravestone doji today. Even more ominous, we see the 20dMA beginning to turn down.  MACD is moving closer towards zero.  Unless some heavy volume buy ups happen in the next two or three weeks, the 20dMA seems destined to form a dead cross with the 50dMA and the MACD would be in negative territory.  Support remains at 16c and if this breaks, we should see stronger support at 15c.

SPH: Slight reduction in volume today as the MFI turned down.  OBV is still rising as accumulation continues unabated.  However, the white spinning top formed today suggests indecision.  If this is confirmed as a reversal signal, the journey towards $4.00 would be aborted and $3.82 is the immediate support.

AusGroup:  It seems that 63c remains insurmountable for now.  Price formed a doji, closing at 62c, today.  Although MFI has formed a new high, volume has reduced slightly over a three day period.  There is still a chance of 63c being taken out but volume has to expand on renewed buying ineterest for this to happen.  If volume dwindles, a downward move towards support at 60c is more likely.

Oceanus:  Touched a high of 38c but closing at 37c, price formed a gravestone doji today.  We have a sell signal on the MACD.  Immediate support at 36.5c.  This is where we find the flat 100dMA.  Stronger support is to be found at 35c, where we see a confluence of the 20d, 50d and 200d MAs. Recap: Oceanus.

Genting SP: Touched a high of 92.5c but was resisted by the 20dMA and closed at 90c. Genting SP has emerged from its downtrend in mid March and is now moving sideways. The stochastics and MFI are both near oversold territories.  Price seems to have found support for now and further weakness is expected to be mild if news remain benign. Recap: Genting SP: Obvious downtrend.

China Hongxing: This counter broke out today unexpectedly on high volume, touching a high of 16.5c, it closed at 16c, resisted by the declining 50dMA.  If it manages to close above 16c in the next session, the upside targets are at 18c (100dMA) and 19c (200dMA).  Immediate support is provided by the upturning 20dMA at 15c.  Breaking 16c convincingly would most probably see punters coming in to push it higher towards 18c. Recap: China Hongxing: Downside target?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT:  Price opened and closed at 22c today, forming a dragonfly doji.  This is the first time it has happened since end January 2010.  We also see a buy signal on the MACD.  OBV is up.  MFI is up.  The Bollinger bands look to be on the verge of widening and if that follows through, this counter is probably going to test the top of the base formation at 23c although, from a chart pattern perspective (where I look out for symmetry), it seems a tad early.  Indeed, the low volume seen today adds an element of caution. Recap: Charts in brief: 19 Mar 10.

LMIR: This counter has to close above a bunching of MAs which are supports turned resistance.  If price could close firmly above 49c in the next few sessions, this objective woud have been achieved.  MFI is rising towards 50%.  Stochastics is rising from the oversold region.  The rising 200dMA is at 47c and should provide support in the event of further weakness. Fundamentals remain strong and I would accumulate on weakness.  Recap: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 6 April 2010.

Comments on the US economy.

Yes, It's a V-Shaped Recovery: Risk of Double-Dip "Relatively Low", Liz Ann Sonders Says.
Posted Apr 05, 2010 10:05am EDT by Aaron Task



"I'm amazed people still say it's not a 'V'-shaped recovery, which to means they're simply not looking at the charts," says Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist.

Bear Market in Bonds Could Trigger "Melt-Up" in Stocks, Sonders Says.
Posted Apr 05, 2010 11:50am EDT by Peter Gorenstein

 

 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on the verge of 11,000 for the first time in 18 months on the back of Friday's positive jobs report and Monday's better-than-expected reports on pending home sales and ISM services, a private trade group measure of the U.S. service sector.