Revisiting High Yield Portfolio.

On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog.  It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.

Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:

Saizen REIT:  This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%.  Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT):  This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c.  Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.

LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c.  Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.

First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c.  Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.

Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38.  Gained 2.99%.  XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.

SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15.  Gained 15.3%.

Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%.  He would also have an average yield of 1.1%.  Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.

The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.

It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months.  Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.
High yield portfolio.

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A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.

Gimnasia Vs. Boca @ Yahoo! Video

Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

STI gains 0.3% to 2,988.49 at closing
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17.  A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones.  A buy signal.

The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory.  Is this a reversal?  Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April.  Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD.  Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze.  A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.

China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals.  So, I am wondering whether to cut.

Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c.  The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down.  I might cut loss on Monday.

Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat.  So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.

Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions.  If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so.  Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA.  I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts.  This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance.  It is now at 17.5c.

The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c.  Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.

In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend.  The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.

First REIT’s 1Q distributable income up 1.3% to $5.2m
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Maria Bartiromo on Goldman Case: Where's the Fraud?

Posted Apr 22, 2010 04:23pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein


Related posts:
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?
Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

Revaluing the RMB.

Revaluing the RMB is a matter of when, not if.  It is widely known that the RMB is undervalued and the Chinese government realises that it has to let the RMB appreciate. This would bring down the cost of living in the country and help put a lid on inflationary pressures.  However, China wants to do so at its own pace. 

The Chinese government is and has always been very concerned about not losing face. A confrontational attitude from outsiders would do more harm than good.

When the RMB is revalued upwards and we can expect this to happen in a series of steps in time, foreign companies with assets in China and with earnings denominated in the RMB will surely benefit. Also, foreigners should find investing in Chinese companies and assets attractive in such a situation as the value of their Chinese investments in their home currencies would likely increase.

China is on track to overtake Japan as the largest economy in Asia and companies which are well positioned to benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy will most likely do better than peers which are not.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

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Yuan Gains May Help China Vault Past Japan to Be No. 2 Economy

April 19, 2010, 1:36 AM EDT


April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s anticipated move to let its currency appreciate may help the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

 A 5 percent revaluation against the dollar could see quarterly gross domestic product exceed Japan’s as soon as July- to-September this year, estimated Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZ. The Chinese economy is likely to vault past Japan by year’s end even if the yuan remains stable, Liu said in an e-mailed interview.

Read complete article here:
Yuan gains may help China vault past Japan to be No. 2 economy.

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Weak Chinese Currency "Not Just An American Problem,"
FT's Martin Wolf Says.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein



Related posts:
New global economic leadership.

Genting SP: Downward drift continues.

STI gains 0.4% to 2,980.69 at closing
Thursday, 22 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

I am getting somewhat bored with saying more or less the same things everyday for a while now.  The market has not been very exciting either way.  So, I am giving myself a break from doing a "Charts in brief" post today.  However, Genting SP's price caught my eyes as it touched a low of 85c before closing at 86c today.  I am not vested in this counter but the amount of interest it has generated as the biggest story in Singapore's entertainment and hospitality industries in recent times got me looking on as well.

Technically, it would seem as if a test of the previous low at 83.5c achieved on 4 March is on the cards. The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs are all downtrending.  The MACD is still below zero and has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line.  OBV shows distribution taking place.  MFI shows a lack of buying momentum.  Stochastics has just dipped into oversold territory. 

A bearish picture is obvious, no doubt. However, the selling down lacks strong conviction, in my opinion.  If we look at 18 Feb which was the day the $1.02 support gave way completely, the volume was extremely high.  Volume has been relatively low since that day as price retreated.  I am not saying that price could not go lower but I am saying that the current selling pressure does not seem as great as it was earlier this year.  Having said this, price could go lower and I see 80c as a significant support level.

What if 80c gives way? Well, a look at the weekly chart shows the 100wMA at 75c and this should provide a stronger support.

Related post:
Genting SP: Stale bulls' second chance?