SPH: Retesting resistance.

SPH closed at $4.08 today, retesting the resistance identified some time back. This is the third time it has hit $4.08 since 16 July. Could it overcome this resistance soon?

Note the falling volume as price tried to move higher.  The MFI has also broken down from its uptrend. Demand is flagging. OBV, however, is rising somewhat after a brief decline, suggesting renewed accumulation but the gradient is gentler now and one could even say it's flat as it is more or less the same level now as it was on 16 July. What am I trying to say? The technicals are relatively weaker now.

However, the 20dMA is still rising strongly and if price manages to stay above the 20dMA in the near term, SPH could be doing a correction using time and the 20dMA could push the price past $4.08 eventually.  Keep an eye on the OBV.  If it stays flat while the MFI declines, it would mean a lack of distribution and this might prevent price from sinking too much even as demand weakens.

Immediate support is at $3.98.  This is where we find the rising 20dMA and it is also a natural candlestick support level.  Good luck to fellow shareholders.

China Hongxing: Target hit.

On 24 June, I wrote "With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested." Today, China Hongxing hit the breakout target of 16c.  What next?

The OBV shows a sharp increase in accumulation.  No distribution is taking place yet, it seems.  However, MFI and RSI have both pushed into overbought territories. Also, notice the negative divergence between price and volume. A pull back in the near future is not unrealistic. Immediate support is at 14.5c followed by a stronger support at 13.5c. Remember, it's all about probabilities.

What would I do? I would lock in some gains. If I were to stay vested, it would be with a smaller position at this point in time. Congratulations to anyone who made money from this and if you see fit to contribute to my pocket money fund, thank you too. ;)

Related post:
China Hongxing: Breakout.

Mapletree Log: Acquires properties in Japan.

Mapletree Logistics Trust (a Temasek linked REIT), has shown its confidence in the Japanese economy by acquiring three distribution centres in Japan for a total of JPY13b or S$200m.

"MapletreeLog says it has sufficient financial flexibility and capacity to fund the Acquisition which is expected to be completed by end 3Q 2010. The purchase price and other acquisition costs of the properties will be fully funded by debt, which will bring MapletreeLog’s gearing level to 43.6%, after taking into account all acquisitions announced to date." (The Edge, 28 July 10, 13.23)

Its presentation slides show these acquisitions to be yield accretive. The investment would generate a return of 7.3% per annum.  At the last traded price of 88c, the yield is currently about 6.8%. These Japanese properties are likely to bump up DPU by 5.6% per annum. The properties are also freehold in nature.  No "depreciation". See presentation slides here.

Having said this, with these latest acquisitions, gearing level would be pushed up to 43.6%.  One wonders if Mapletree Log would go to unitholders with hat in hand in the near future or, perhaps, do a share placement.

MapletreeLog acquires 3 properties in Japan for $200m
Wednesday, 28 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

 

Alexa

I stumbled upon this today. I was totally blown away.  This is a web information company and it has analyses of all the websites in the world.  Well, it certainly looks that way to me.

I entered my blog's URL in the search bar and a one page analysis appeared.  Amazing!

According to Alexa:
Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has a three-month global Alexa traffic rank of 667,393. Roughly 33% of visits to the site consist of only one pageview (i.e., are bounces). Visitors to the site spend approximately two minutes on each pageview and a total of ten minutes on the site during each visit. Visitors to the site view an average of 2.5 unique pages per day, and Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has been online for at least nine years.

Alexa Traffic Rank - 667,393 

Traffic Rank in SG - 3,808

I don't know about the rest of the information but my blog is not nine years old. So, perhaps, we should not take Alexa too seriously.  Having said this, I am still amazed by this service.  No wonder they say there are no secrets on the internet. We have to be careful of what we do in cyberspace!

Visit Alexa here.

A movie: The Last Airbender.

I have watched the animation series and I have played the game on the Nintendo DS.  It's time to watch the movie!

Healthway Medical: Going down?

What is happening to Healthway Medical's share price, some might ask?  Since 5 July, price has only closed above the declining 20dMA twice. In the last five sessions, share price closed at 18.5c, the immediate support. The question on shareholders' minds is whether this support level will hold.  Will it? I don't know. What an answer, right?  Well, TA cannot tell us things like that. It's always a question of probability.  So, might it?  Let us examine some technical indicators.

The declining 20dMA suggests a short term downtrend.  Price closing at 18.5c for five sessions in a row is bearish but note the volume.  It has been thinning as price declined.  A low volume pull back?  Good for the bulls. The MFI has been forming higher lows and the OBV has declined ever so slightly.  Both indicators suggest that there is some underlying support. Again, good for the bulls.  So, 18.5c immediate support might hold.

What if 18.5c breaks?  Well, the longer term MAs are still rising.  The 50dMA should provide some support at 18c in case 18.5c cracks.  Unless there is a significant expansion in volume with any selling down, the 100dMA which is currently at 17c is unlikely to be tested as a support in the immediate future.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 2).

STI gains 0.4% to 2,979.38 at closing. Shares on the measure trade at 14.4 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.5 times at the beginning of the year, according to Bloomberg data.
Tuesday, 27 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Charts in brief: 26 Jul 10.

Genting SP: Volume expanded today as price closed at $1.24.  The MACD seems poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line. Momentum is looking good and one wonders if $1.20 is now resistance turned support. Needs confirmation. However, if one looks at going above $1.20 as a breakout, this is a very "quiet" breakout with rather modest volume. Is it durable?

Genting S’pore up on Goldman upgrade: Goldman Sachs lifted its target price for Genting to $1.15 from $0.79, due to better-than-expected profits from its new casino resort in Singapore, Resort World Sentosa.
Monday, 26 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  Downtrend intact with today's black candle. OBV has formed a lower high, suggesting ongoing distribution activity. The descending 20dMA is preventing further gains. We could be seeing the beginnings of a descending triangle pattern if the downward pressure continues. Immediate resistance at $2.06 and immediate support at $2.02.

FSL Trust: Results were announced today with 2Q FY10 DPU at US0.95¢.  Volume rose today and there was much selling down of its units.  In spite of this, price remained unchanged at 42c.  This is a sign of strength as it means staying above the 50dMA.  MFI continues to rise, suggesting increased demand.  OBV is rising, suggesting continuing accumulation. There is some underlying support for this counter.  20dMA continues to rise and we might be in for a golden cross with the 50dMA soon.

First Ship Lease Trust to distribute US0.95¢ per unit for 2QFY10, 61% lower y-o-y
Monday, 26 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

SPH: The MFI has broken its uptrend support, suggesting a weakening demand. This coupled with the MACD set to do a bearish crossover with the signal line, a retracement to the 20dMA cannot be ruled out.  This is currently at $3.95 which is also an important candlestick resistance turned support. Volume has been reducing as price pulled back.  This is good news for bulls.  Support at $4.00 seems shaky and if this goes, I would keep an eye on $3.95 to see if it holds up as the next support.

STI drops 0.2% to 2,966.99 at closing
Monday, 26 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Some views from Marc and Jim.

Marc Faber thinks that the Fed would embark on more quantitative easing (aka print more money) in September or October:



Jim Rogers says to buy silver as it is 70% below its all time high:



Jim Rogers also mentioned that sugar is a good investment because a lot of it is being used in the production of alternative fuel.  Now, with the US limiting offshore drilling for crude oil, shortages might develop and that could mean higher crude oil prices in future.  I would keep an eye on CPO price which has been recovering strongly lately.  That affects CPO counters like Golden Agriculture.

Related posts:
Gold or silver?
Why Golden Agriculture?

Do this if you want a good career and life!

(Less attractive people make US$230,000 lesser over their lifetime. About 10,000 people a month Google "Am I ugly?")
UPDATED (2 Jan 17):
AK is very consistent and he is consistently kaypoh. So, what triggered this update to a blog penned in 2010? I saw this advertisement:

Read my blog and do this? I will slap you! 
Know someone who wants to do this? Slap!

Hairy and ladies like them what.
--------------------------
I am reading Newsweek (26 July issue) and they have an article titled "The Beauty Advantage". The topic on looks is, of course, quite common and it is something I have heard talked about before but it is still an eye opener to be reading it in print, not in Her World or Cleo, but in Newsweek.  

In case you are wondering, yes, I have flipped through Her World and Cleo before.  I am sure I am not the only guy who has done it before... ahem.

BEAUTY CAN AFFECT YOUR JOB, YOUR CAREER, YOUR LIFE.  

Here are some numbers:

61% of hiring managers surveyed by Newsweek said it's advantageous for a woman to show off her figure in the workplace.

57% of corporate managers said landing a job is harder for an unattractive candidate.

About 60% of overweight women and 40% of overweight men said they've experienced employment discrimination.

59% of hiring managers said they'd advise job candidates to spend as much money on looks as on their resume.

I remember reading somewhere when I was in my late teens that models could make upwards of $10,000 a month! 

I remember Henry Tee, who was a young model and aspiring TV actor then, being reported as making $5,000 a month!  That's a lot of money twenty years ago (and is still a lot of money now).  

Then, I wondered why I wasn't born with good looks. If I was born with good looks, I could make lots of money just by smiling for cameras. Sigh. So, what's new. Life is unfair, isn't it?

If you look at the numbers above, overweight women have it really bad.  So, it's not just weightism working here, it's also sexism!  

An overweight man is perceived to be less unattractive (and probably more productive) compared to an overweight woman? Sheesh. 

I have the good fortune of knowing some pretty large ladies who are very efficient workers.  I have also seen some really pretty ladies who spent a lot of time looking good and, er, just looked good.

Anyway, like they say, this is an imperfect world. 

I should count my blessings. I mean, I could be an overweight woman and be really discriminated against, right?

Read Newsweek article online: 
The beauty advantage.

A movie: Inception.

Went to the movies today and at the end of it, I told my friend whom I watched the movie with that it has been a long time since I watched a movie that required some effort to understand. Once I understood the theory which was the backbone of the movie, I enjoyed it.  5 minutes in the real world would yield 60 minutes in the dream world.  So, if we dreamt while we slept for 8 hours, imagine how much time that would give us in the dream world.  The movie I am talking about is "Inception".

It gets weirder.  Dreaming within a dream would give us even more time in a deeper dream world.  A dream within a dream within a dream could give us decades in an even deeper dream world, allowing much more time to do all the things we ever wanted to do.  Of course, these things would be accomplished in our dreams and not in the real world.  That gives a twist to the saying: "In your dreams!", does it not?

This also reminds me of a saying by Zhuang Zi, "Was I a man dreaming that I was a butterfly or was I a butterfly dreaming that I was a man?"

All said, it is nice to have dreams.  Just watch out for the nightmares.

Official website: Inception.

Charts in brief: 23 Jul 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: I was at a friend's house warming and we talked about the stock market a bit and his broker said that this REIT has a very low market capitalisation.  So, it was not on his radar screen.  Actually, I like the sound of that because it would give me more time to accumulate at lower prices.  However, with recent increased accumulation activity as suggested by the OBV's direction, I suspect more are taking note of this REIT's high yield, large discount to NAV and relatively low gearing.  Looking at the candlesticks, it seems that a new support level has been established at 22c in the near term.  Is this sustainable? With all the MAs rising, it might be. The MFI broke out of its downtrend decisively four sessions ago which signals a return of demand. Any further upmove in price would see a retest of the resistance at 23c.

Genting SP: Price has finally closed above $1.20 in the last session.  At $1.21, could it go higher? From 21 June, when price first touched a high of $1.21, volume has been shrinking as intraday price range became narrower and narrower. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies.  Without any expansion in volume in a move up in price, bulls do have cause to worry. It is encouraging that the MFI has moved out of resistance and this shows a return of demand.  However, OBV is flattish which suggests that there is a stalemate between accumulation and distribution despite a return of demand.  Things still look dicey and I would keep an eye on the support provided by the 20dMA which is currently at $1.18.

STI +0.4% but upside limited; 2,984 resistance
Friday, 23 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

FSL Trust: Golden cross?

FSL Trust formed a white candle in the last session with a respectable expansion in volume. The 20dMA continues rising and seems on track to form a golden cross with the 50dMA in the near future. Although we do not see a buy signal on the MACD histogram, the MACD is, nonetheless, rising in positive territory. The MFI has been rising which suggests a rising demand.  The OBV is rising again which suggests continual accumulation.

If price were to stay at 42c in the next session or, in fact, go higher, the resistance provided by the 50dMA would be taken out.  The next target is then 43.5c if price does a gap fill which it probably would.  Beyond that, a retest of the high of early June at 46c is next.

Related post:
FSL Trust: The skies are clearing up.

China Hongxing: Breakout.

The last time I wrote about China Hongxing was on 3 July. At that time, there were still mixed signals.

On Thursday, two sessions ago, there was a buy signal on the MACD histogram and the MFI broke out of its downtrend. Volume expanded 10 times in the last session as price hit a high of 14.5c.  With this, China Hongxing broke out of multiple resistance levels and confirmed the buy signal on the MACD histogram. 11.5c has been established as the bottom while the next resistance is at 16c, as provided by the 200dMA. With momentum oscillators turning up strongly, we could possibly see 16c tested.  Congratulations to those who took the risk to buy some earlier on but bear in mind that it is still trading below the 200dMA and that the longer term trend is still down.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Bottoming?

Tea with AK71: Money well spent.

My recent purchase of a Samsung HD1080p 32" LED TV, a Sony Blu Ray player and a Pioneer sound system surprised quite a few friends and even my family members.  Considering that my last TV was a Chimei 26" LCD HD Ready TV bought three years ago at $688 in Carrefour, you can imagine why. Have I become extravagant?  I hardly think so.

Three years ago, it would have easily cost two times of $688 to get a 26" LCD HD Ready TV from Sharp or Sony.  I decided I did not need something branded then and settled for Chimei which served me quite well in the last three years.  Some friends commented that it was too small for my living room and some said the definition was poor.  Most just went "What is a Chimei?" and some even made puns out of the name.  Terrible. However, I thought it was OK.  I mean I had no problem with news, documentaries and DVDs on my Chimei.  Then, why change?

I saw what the LED TV was capable of delivering during one of my visits to the malls and  I also found the Samsung aesthetically pleasing compared to the Chimei.  You don't find these arguments convincing, do you?  If you are a regular reader of my blog or if you know me very well, yes, you would not be convinced.  The most important reason was that the price was not even two times of $688!  Great technology at a great price!  It is never a question of affordability.  It is always a question of value of money. I decided to pamper myself which is something I rarely do.

So far, everyone who has seen my new TV only had good things to say about it.  I am only human and it feels good to have positive reinforcement from others.  Things are so different from those Chimei days.  This is a positive spinoff that I did not anticipate.

To some people, it seems that I have changed. Well, maybe a little.  I don't think I have changed much.  I am still the pragmatic me but I have to agree that I have become less tight fisted in the last one year. 

I told a friend who visited recently that watching Blu Ray programs is such a joy.  Images and sounds are crystal clear on the new TV. Sometimes, I would just switch it on, watch for about ten minutes, switch it off and go to sleep, feeling happy. Money spent on anything which contributes to a general sense of well-being and happiness has to be money well spent, don't you think?

As an aside, my sister is going to shave her head bald to help some cancer stricken children and I donated some money to the cause in a show of support.  It's a worthy cause, after all.  To find out more, please visit: Hair for Hope 2010. This is definitely money well spent.

Related post:
Money management: Needs and wants.

CapitaMalls Asia: Uptrend broken.

The longer term downtrend which was broken briefly for four sessions in late June is once again in play.  A series of rallies which started after the price hit a low of $1.91 on 7 May has come to an end.

On 16 July, charting revealed that "Prices are testing the support provided by the third fan line.  The uptrend has weakened from the initial fan line and it now looks exhausted. OBV shows clear distribution since price peaked on 23 Jun. From Monday to Thursday, volume expanded as price dropped.  Today, volume is lower and this is probably in response to the slightly oversold condition as suggested by the MFI.  Immediate support at $2.04 and immediate resistance at $2.10.  Closing below $2.04 in the next session would break the uptrend support and the price is likely to move lower from there."

Today, the support provided by the third fan line was compromised with price opening at $2.04 and closing at $2.02.  Volume expanded in the last two sessions as the price fell. MACD continues to fall in negative territory and OBV continues its decline, suggesting greater distribution than accumulation. However, MFI has risen out of the oversold territory. This suggests that there is still some demand and forms a positive divergence with price. This might limit somewhat the decline in price.

Could this decline below the third fan line possibly be a whipsaw to shake out the weaker long holders? It might be. Or could we see the previous low of $1.91 tested again?  If price continues to decline, Fibo lines suggests that this is quite possible. This counter is still looking for a bottom, it would seem.

Charts in brief: 20 Jul 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Volume expanded strongly today as price closed at a high of 22.5c. This move breaks it out of a 0.5c trading range which started in early June. The MFI has broken out of its downtrend, suggesting a return of demand.  Sell signal on the MACD histogram negated as the MACD continues to rise in positive territory above the signal line. The OBV has moved to a new high, suggesting more accumulation than distribution has been going on in recent times. Whether price could break out of the bigger trading range of 20c to 23c remains to be seen. When all the sellers are done selling and buyers want a piece of the action, the only direction would be up.  The fundamentals are strong and the technicals are seemingly benign.  Let's see if the momentum keeps up.

FSL Trust: Price went above the resistance provided by the 50dMA briefly. Closing at 42c is still at resistance provided by the same MA. MACD has just crossed into positive territory. MFI continues to rise. These suggest a return of positive momentum and demand. However, the OBV is flat which suggests a stalemate between accumulation and distribution. Demand is rising but accumulation is not keeping pace which means that there is some selling pressure.  Without an expansion in volume with an upmove in price, the sellers are unlikely to be taken out. With the RSI high in overbought territory, suggesting that price has moved upwards too quickly, the possibility of a slow down or pullback cannot be ruled out. Immediate support remains at 40c while breaking out of 42c resistance could see price do a gap fill at 43.5c and, perhaps, test the lower high of 46c too.

Golden Agriculture: Touched 58.5c, the resistance identified last Friday. Volume shrank for two sessions in a row as price rose. So, price is rising from a lack of sellers, not an abundance of buyers. MFI and OBV continue rising, suggesting rising demand and accumulation.  So, we could perhaps see price moving higher.  If 58.5c is taken out, the next resistance is at 60c.  The MFI nears overbought territory and one wonders if there is much more left to this rally.  This is a valid concern when we see that the RSI is already in overbought territory.  Any pullback would see immediate support at 55c, as provided by the 100dMA.

K-REIT: Uptrend intact.

K-REIT's uptrend is intact with a 1c fall in price from the previous session to $1.21. That price closed at the high of the day is encouraging. MFI continues to trend up which suggests sustained demand.  However, it is nearing overbought and we might see the rise in price slowing or, perhaps, we might see a slight pullback to the 20dMA which approximates the uptrend support. In case of a pullback, support is at $1.15.

What makes $1.22 different from $1.22 in January?  When $1.22 was hit in January, the MAs were farther apart from each other compared to what is observed now. Now, the MAs are closer to each other, more tightly knit, if you like. Such an arrangement is likely to limit volatility and provides a firmer platform for any further upmove in price.  All the MAs are rising and the 50dMA seems poised for a golden cross with the 100dMA.

Volume has been stronger on up days compared to down days and if this persists, price could break $1.22 sooner than later.

K‐REIT Asia will distribute to Unitholders 2.97 cents per unit on Aug 26.

K‐REIT Asia achieves $22m in distributable income for 2Q
Monday, 19 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 3).

LMIR: Although falling to 48.5c today means that price has fallen below the downtrend resistance drawn from the high of 11 Jan, price has been falling on lowering volume in the last few sessions.  This is comforting as it means a lack of distribution. This is confirmed by the OBV. 48.5c is resistance turned support for now.

NOL: $2 is an important resistance turned support formed by the merged 20d and 100d MAs. If this were to break, price could fall to $1.94 next. What looks like a symmetrical triangle has formed. Breaking to the downside would find initial support at $1.84, the 23.6% Fibo line which coincides with the 200dMA. Breaking to the upside gives an initial target of $2.22.

Raffles Education: Since hitting a high of 34c on 12 July, there has clearly been distribution activity as suggested by the declining OBV. Price is now supported by the 20dMA at 29.5c. The decline in price in the last few sessions has been accompanied by declining volume and this low volume pullback could be a chance for some brave punters. The MFI is still uptrending and if it were to bounce off its support, price could move higher once more.

SPH: OBV rising strongly, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI bordering on overbought. MACD rising strongly in positive territory. All these as price closed at $4.08, the target I identified not too long ago. Volume is lower which suggests that price moved higher because there were lesser sellers.  People are probably waiting to see how high it can go.

Related posts:
SPH: BUY calls aplenty.
LMIR: Recovering for real?
Raffles Education: A spectacular white candle.
NOL: Downtrend.

Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 2).

FSL Trust: 42c seems like a difficult resistance to overcome at this point in time. This is gap resistance and resistance provided by the declining 50dMA at the same time. RSI has also moved higher up into the overbought region while we see a sell signal on the MACD histogram.  Volume has been reducing as price moved higher. Without an expansion in volume as price moves higher, it is unlikely that 42c could be taken out in the next session. Unless there is some positive newsflow soon, chances of a pullback in price are higher. With all the higher lows formed in the MFI and RSI, the momentum oscillators are clearly uptrending and I expect any pullback to find initial support at 40c.

Genting SP: First touched on 29 Jun, $1.20 has proven to be a tough nut to crack. Volume has been reducing since that day as price stayed above the 20dMA. If we look purely at the 20dMA, the short term uptrend seems to be intact. However, if we look at the MACD, we see a bearish crossover with the signal line on 2 Jul and since then the MACD has been declining beneath the signal line. MFI, RSI and OBV have all flatlined.  There is clearly no trend where these indicators are concerned.  Pay attention to the 20dMA which should be at $1.17 in the next session or so.  If this is breached, price could move lower rapidly.

Healthway Medical: Since price touched a high of 21c on 16 Jun, the MFI has been in decline.  This suggests a weakening demand. However, we do not see a similar decline in the OBV.  In fact, the OBV has gone up which suggests that there is more accumulation than distribution. There is some underlying support and even though demand has weakened, there is little selling pressure.  Immediate support is at 18.5c.

K-REIT: A very nice up day with a very nice white candle as volume more than doubled from the previous session.  Price closed at $1.22, the high of 11 and 12 Jan.  if momentum keeps up and price action goes parabolic, I won't be surprised if we see $1.34 (161.8% Fibo line). At this point in time, it is still a fantasy.

Related posts:
FSL Trust: The skies are clearing up.

Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 1).

Golden Agriculture: Broke resistance at 55c and powered higher.  Volume almost quadrupled! If the momentum keeps up on Monday, we could see price attempt to go higher.  Beyond 57c, the next resistance is at 58.5c.  Support at 55c.

Palm stocks rally; Demand to rise: Morgan Stanley
Friday, 16 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Ind. REIT: It is obvious that this counter is trapped in a range between 21.5c and 22c. I remember saying that if the MFI declines and price remains at 21.5c or higher, it is a good sign.  Good because it shows that there is a lack of sellers even as demand declines. Well, the MFI is now in oversold territory and price has stayed at 21.5c to 22c so far.  Of course, the MFI could stay oversold for a while more but if we look at the shorter term 20dMA and the longer term 100dMA, they have one thing in common.  They are both rising, if gently. When there are no more sellers at this level, we might see price rise to the next bracket.

CapitaMalls Asia: Looking somewhat precarious here. Prices are testing the support provided by the third fan line.  The uptrend has weakened from the initial fan line and it now looks exhausted. OBV shows clear distribution since price peaked on 23 Jun. From Monday to Thursday, volume expanded as price dropped.  Today, volume is lower and this is probably in response to the slightly oversold condition as suggested by the MFI.  Immediate support at $2.04 and immediate resistance at $2.10.  Closing below $2.04 in the next session would break the uptrend support and the price is likely to move lower from there.

Courage Marine:  The BDI's decline seems to be slowing but at 1,700, it is pretty darn low. From the RSI, it seems that the decline in price has some momentum.  However, the MFI has dipped into oversold territory and this might put a lid on selling although demand is obviously weak.  The OBV does not show any sign of strong selling. I did suggest that this counter's resilience stems from the company having a debt free balance sheet. In difficult times, companies with strong balance sheets are more likely to survive. Immediate support at 18.5c.  Strong resistance at 19.5c, which is where we find the confluence of the 20d and 200d MAs.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: CPO price spiked 2.44%.

Golden Agriculture: CPO price spiked 2.44%.

CPO price spiked 2.44% today to close RM58 higher at RM2,439.  The impressive appreciation aside, what is more significant is that the downtrend resistance established since the double top formation I have talked about before has been broken!  Is this the beginning of a sustained recovery or is the decline simply shifting to a lower gear?  Only time will tell.

Golden Agriculture's share price has yet to react to this bit of news or would it react at all?

From 26 April, we can draw two fan lines.  Price broke out of the first fan line resistance (in orange) and later on broke out of the second fan line resistance (in red). Since then, price seems to have moved into a range with resistance at 55c, provided by the flat 100dMA, and support at 52c, provided by the gently rising 200dMA.

Although the OBV is flattish, the MFI, which accounts for both volume and price, has broken out of its downtrend. So too has the RSI.  The halt in the decline of the MFI suggests that we are seeing a return in demand but this is probably balanced by the presence of sellers which is why the OBV is flattish. The dojis formed in the last two sessions suggest indecision and this reinforces the idea that we are seeing a delicate balance between the buyers and sellers here.

The MACD is gently rising in positive territory which indicates that the momentum is positive. So, although the current situation is still iffy, there is a slight upward bias observed. In the short term, the 100dMA resistance might be hard to break.  Look at the stochastics and we will see that it is entering overbought territory.  Upside could, therefore, be limited at 55c.

Fundamentally, if CPO price continues to recover while the share price of Golden Agriculture trades sideways, we might have an interesting proposition to go long here.  Buy in at 52c? Maybe. I am keeping an eye on this one.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Rebounding.

Saizen REIT: An update.

Saizen REIT has seemingly gone into hibernation.  For more than a month, its price has fluctuated between 16c and 16.5c. The daily MAs have all flatlined. Some may wonder if I am still interested in this REIT.  Well, I am still very much interested in this REIT.  It remains one of my top three investments in the stock market.  Regular readers of my blog would know that I believe it to be a very good investment with more than a fair bit of potential to deliver an attractive yield and possibly an even more attractive capital appreciation.

Today, the technicals are rather interesting.  Of course, with volume so thin, it could just be a mirage but let us do this just for fun, if nothing else. The MACD histogram shows a buy signal on a day that saw the formation of a dragonfly doji. The MFI, which has been impeded at 50% for some time, has finally risen above this resistance since falling below in late May. This suggests a strengthening demand, however slowly it took to develop. OBV is flat.  No obvious distribution or accumulation. In a rangebound situation, the stochastics could be telling and, now, we see it rising from the oversold region. 

There is only one word for investors of Saizen REIT: patience.  Those lacking in this virtue should not be vested in this REIT.  For the record, I have been vested since October last year.  I have done my FA and I believe this to be a gem.  I will continue waiting.  Patience, I believe, will be rewarded.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: CEO bought more warrants.

MIIF: Very high volume up day.

MIIF had a very high volume up day, forming an impressive white candle to close at 52.5c. In the last 12 months, the only time volume was higher was in October 2009.  MACD histogram has a buy signal as momentum oscillators turned sharply upwards. Immediate support is a band between 49.5c to 50c.  Drawing an uptrend support from the low of 44.5c hit on 7 Jun approximates the position of the 20dMA which establishes this MA as an important support to watch. Any upside targets? Using Fibo lines, 138.2% approximates a many times tested candlestick resistance at 55c.  So, I expect this to be a strong resistance.  If this is taken out, we could see price go higher to 56.5c, the 161.8% Fibo line.

MIIF +5.1%; Under pressure to return cash: BGC Partners
Tuesday, 13 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

SPH: BUY calls aplenty.

SPH: A slew of BUY calls from brokerages on the back of sterling results for 3Q10 sent the share price of SPH higher today. $3.95 resistance is now support. Up channel resistance has been broken. MFI and RSI continue their upward trends.  OBV shows continuing accumulation. Sell signal on the MACD histogram negated. Volume more than doubled as price touched a high of $4.00 today and closed 5c higher than the previous session at $3.98. Same question: $4.08? Looking more probable now. Punters who are considering a punt could possibly have an ideal entry point at $3.95 if this support is tested again.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 12 Jul 10.

Charts in brief: 12 Jul 10.

SPH: A sterling set of results with a 29.9% rise in 3Q net profit to $164.6 million from $126.7 million for the 3Q ending May. Could this push price to close higher tomorrow? Immediate resistance is at $3.95.  Closing higher than $3.97 would break the channel resistance and price could go much higher then.  With momentum still trending upwards, could we see $4.08? Perhaps.

Golden Agriculture: With the price of CPO firmly in a downtrend, the fundamentals are not looking up for Golden Agriculture. Momentum oscillators are downtrending and OBV is somewhat flat. Volume has, generally, been reducing since price recovered from the low formed on 24 May at 50.5c. We might be seeing the formation of a symmetrical triangle and there is a strong probability of price going lower. Immediate support is provided by the 200dMA at 52c.

Golden Agri target cut to $0.59 by Deutsche Bank
Monday, 12 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

LMIR: I think Mr. Market heard me.  Closing at 49.5c means that the downtrend resistance is broken. Momentum oscillators have similarly broken out of their downtrends. We could see the price testing the next resistance at 50.5c eventually if this keeps up.

Raffles Education: It might just turn out to be a short lived rally but a rather impressive one nonetheless. Price broke the downtrend resistance by touching a high of 34c before closing at 32.5c, forming an inverted cross which is bearish. Volume is also lower today as price attempted to move higher.  However, there is no negative divergence with the momentum oscillators yet. Could we see price trying to push higher again tomorrow? Perhaps. Immediate support is now the resistance turned support 50dMA at 32c. Could this hold up? It has to if price were to move higher.

NOL: A bearish engulfing candle. Frightful but the volume is much reduced on such an ominous black candle day. Therefore, is the counter just taking a breather? If the immediate support which is provided by the merged 20d and 100d MAs at $2 holds up, this could possibly be the case. If the support breaks, the next support is at $1.94.

NOL downgraded to Sell by Citi; Cuts target to $1.70
Monday, 12 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related posts:
LMIR: Recovering for real?
SPH: Up channel?
Raffles Education: A spectacular white candle.
Golden Agriculture: Rebounding.

FSL Trust: The skies are clearing up.

Price stayed above the 20dMA in the last three sessions. The 20dMA, currently at 38.5c, is now resistance turned support. I decided to look at the 20dEMA as well.  The EMA gives greater weightage to recent prices and could sometime explain why price could not move past a certain point in the short term.  The 20dEMA is at 39.5c and seeing the price closed at 40c in the last two sessions is comforting.  However, the volumes were very low and the durability of the recent appreciation in price is questionable.  In fact, since a spike in volume on 18 Jun when the MACD made a bullish crossover with the signal line, volume has been reducing.

Let us look at some other technical indicators to gain more insights. The MACD is rising and pulling away upwards from the signal line in negative territory. The rising MACD is due to the upturning 20dMA, reversing its decline. Although this seems promising, the MFI has gone below its uptrend support due to the very thin volume in the last session as price stayed at 40c. Immediate demand seems to have reduced and some suspect that market participants are waiting for greater clarity.

Although the technicals are not totally inspiring, Mr. Market might spring a pleasant surprise on us and a further move upwards could see the gap filled at 43.5c which in the next session coincides with the declining 50dMA. Immediate support is a band from 39.5c to 38.5c. For anyone who wishes to buy into FSL Trust, technically, it would seem safer to do so now.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Above the 20dMA.

LMIR: Recovering for real?

In the last session, LMIR touched 48.5c, a lower high formed on 22 Jun. Is LMIR's unit price recovering for real and will it go higher? Can't say for sure but recent technicals are supportive of a more bouyant price as we see the MFI, a momentum oscillator that aggregates volume and price, forming higher lows since hitting a low on 21 May. However, trading volume has declined quite a bit in the last four sessions as price rose. Volume is the fuel of a rally and if it dries up, gravity could do its job.

If we look at the longer term trend, MFI has been forming lower highs and this trend suggests reducing demand.  OBV has been forming lower highs which suggests that there is greater distribution than accumulation.  In fact, the downtrend which started on 11 Jan 10 is still intact.

I blogged about my move to reduce some exposure in LMIR about a month ago at a lower high of 47c, recognising the longer term downtrend. On hindsight, that was a bit too soon and I should have used the long term downtrend resistance as a guide instead.

What is my plan now? Frankly, I do not know why the market dislikes LMIR apart from a suspicion that maybe it is applying an "Indonesian discount" to the REIT. I still like the fundamentals but the technicals are wanting. 47c is resistance turned support but it could become resistance again as the 50dMA is still declining. LMIR is probably on its second fan line (which I have drawn in orange color).  Both fan lines have their source at the low formed on 25 May at 42c. We could possibly see the formation of a third fan line in time which suggests that price could touch a low of 45.5c once more. This is a support shared by both fan lines and history might repeat itself.

I still have a large investment in LMIR despite the reduction in exposure I just mentioned. Although the technicals are pointing towards a higher probability in the continuation of the longer term downtrend, a significant increase in volume together with price moving higher would negate this.  Of course, there is no way we can tell if this would happen but it could.  We can only wait and see.

STI: 2,980 next?

How different things look after just one week. The much talked about head and shoulders pattern seems to be turning elusive. 2,400 points on the STI seems to have become just a horror story told to scare the uninitiated.  These are things which even experienced chartists thought quite likely, not just some amateur TA practitioners.  This is another example of how everything works on probabilities, never absolutes.

The MACD averted a bearish crossover with the signal line on 1 July.  On 6 July, a bullish engulfing candle was formed and the MACD started pulling away upwards from the signal line, another bullish sign. Now, a white candle is pushing the upper Bollinger band and the bullishness could continue to test 2,947 next or thereabouts as indicated by the 123.6% Fibo line and, possibly, 2,982, the 138.2% Fibo line. Could it go higher to retest the high of 3,037 achieved on 15 Apr? Who can say for sure?

2,890 is now immediate support as the 20dMA seems set to form a golden cross with the 100dMA next.

Related post:
STI: 2400 is still a real possibility.