Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.
I just read an article by Wilfred Ling titled "Silent pain from an insurance agent". You can read the article here. It is a rare peek into the life of a rookie insurance agent and his angst.
Rare indeed is it for a person to find a job he is actually interested in, grows to love and makes a comfortable living out of it. I believe that many muddle through their careers and endure hardships and even disillusionment, just like this insurance agent.
Personally, I have a simple philosophy in life: "Be happy. As long as you are not hurting anyone while being happy, you're doing fine." Of course, sometimes, life throws us into a hole and prevents us from being happy. What do we do? Climb out of the hole and start afresh.
There may be some truly compassionate and altruistic beings in this world but, generally, no one will take care of us. We have to take care of ourselves. Nobody owes us a living.
If others are cruel to us, we have to love ourselves more. Do not hurt ourselves further by staying on and allowing that cruelty to continue unless there is a REALLY good reason to do so.
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When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Get Going: Maria Bartiromo on the Keys to Success
Posted Apr 23, 2010 05:01pm EDT by Tech Ticker
On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog. It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.
Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:
Saizen REIT: This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%. Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT): This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c. Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.
LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c. Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.
First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c. Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.
Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38. Gained 2.99%. XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.
SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15. Gained 15.3%.
Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%. He would also have an average yield of 1.1%. Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.
The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.
It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months. Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?
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I don't usually watch football but this is entertaining: A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.
CapitaMalls Asia: No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17. A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones. A buy signal.
The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory. Is this a reversal? Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April. Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.
Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD. Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze. A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.
China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals. So, I am wondering whether to cut.
Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c. The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line. This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down. I might cut loss on Monday.
Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat. So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.
Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions. If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so. Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA. I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts. This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance. It is now at 17.5c.
The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c. Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.
In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend. The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.
Revaluing the RMB is a matter of when, not if. It is widely known that the RMB is undervalued and the Chinese government realises that it has to let the RMB appreciate. This would bring down the cost of living in the country and help put a lid on inflationary pressures. However, China wants to do so at its own pace.
The Chinese government is and has always been very concerned about not losing face. A confrontational attitude from outsiders would do more harm than good.
When the RMB is revalued upwards and we can expect this to happen in a series of steps in time, foreign companies with assets in China and with earnings denominated in the RMB will surely benefit. Also, foreigners should find investing in Chinese companies and assets attractive in such a situation as the value of their Chinese investments in their home currencies would likely increase.
China is on track to overtake Japan as the largest economy in Asia and companies which are well positioned to benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy will most likely do better than peers which are not.
Yuan Gains May Help China Vault Past Japan to Be No. 2 Economy April 19, 2010, 1:36 AM EDT
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s anticipated move to let its currency appreciate may help the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said. A 5 percent revaluation against the dollar could see quarterly gross domestic product exceed Japan’s as soon as July- to-September this year, estimated Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZ. The Chinese economy is likely to vault past Japan by year’s end even if the yuan remains stable, Liu said in an e-mailed interview.
------------------------------------------------------- Weak Chinese Currency "Not Just An American Problem," FT's Martin Wolf Says.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
I am getting somewhat bored with saying more or less the same things everyday for a while now. The market has not been very exciting either way. So, I am giving myself a break from doing a "Charts in brief" post today. However, Genting SP's price caught my eyes as it touched a low of 85c before closing at 86c today. I am not vested in this counter but the amount of interest it has generated as the biggest story in Singapore's entertainment and hospitality industries in recent times got me looking on as well.
Technically, it would seem as if a test of the previous low at 83.5c achieved on 4 March is on the cards. The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs are all downtrending. The MACD is still below zero and has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line. OBV shows distribution taking place. MFI shows a lack of buying momentum. Stochastics has just dipped into oversold territory.
A bearish picture is obvious, no doubt. However, the selling down lacks strong conviction, in my opinion. If we look at 18 Feb which was the day the $1.02 support gave way completely, the volume was extremely high. Volume has been relatively low since that day as price retreated. I am not saying that price could not go lower but I am saying that the current selling pressure does not seem as great as it was earlier this year. Having said this, price could go lower and I see 80c as a significant support level.
What if 80c gives way? Well, a look at the weekly chart shows the 100wMA at 75c and this should provide a stronger support.
CapitaMalls Asia: The technical picture looks decidedly bearish. OBV continues to decline as distribution continues. MACD is pulling away downwards from the signal line. MFI is hovering above the oversold region while the Stochastics is deep in the oversold region. Price is now testing the previous low of $2.19. Continuing downward movement should see the next support at $2.12 tested. If price starts basing at the current level, we might see the formation of a double bottom.
Golden Agriculture: Another doji. I still see support at the 50dMA at 56.5c and would accumulate if price descends to that level. By next week, the rising 50dMA would be at 57c. 100dMA is at 54.5c. Price has not been able to break 62.5c in three separate sessions in recent memory. So, that is likely to be an important psychological resistance. I might sell some of my remaining shares at that level, therefore.
Saizen REIT: An extreme low volume day. We have a buy signal on the MACD. MFI bounced off 50% and OBV rose slightly. All MAs are still rising. Price is still above the 20dMA which is at 16.9c currently. In another few sessions, the 20dMA would be at 17c.
China Hongxing: Price closed at 15c, the support provided by the 20dMA, on reduced volume. 20dMA is still rising. 50dMA is still falling. A golden cross in the making, it seems.
Courage Marine: Volume expanded and price traded at the gap resistance of 23.5c the whole session. MACD is rising. OBV shows keen accumulation. MFI pushes higher into the overbought region. 25.5c is next if 23.5c is taken out convincingly. Positive momentum is very much present.
SPH: This elephant is flying. Another strong white candle day as volume expanded with price closing at $4.12. OBV shows unabating accumulation. $4.12 was a resistance level in June 2008 that proved too strong. If this is taken out, price could go on to test $4.33 but before that, another resistance could be found at $4.21. This was a support level that finally gave way in May 2008 and was not recaptured since.
I cannot remember who suggested that I should put a donation widget in my blog. I remember it was during the early days of this blog. Was the person Jason, CT or CL? Hmmm... Well, guess what. I've just done it. You will see the button on the left asking for a donation to my pocket money fund. ;-)
All donations are done securely through PayPal. So, if you are feeling generous or if you feel that I deserve it, a small donation to buy me a cuppa tea would be nice.
Personally, I feel quite happy that I am learning so many new high tech stuff about blogs. One more step away from being in the Jurassic Age for me, I guess. ;-p
Heartfelt thanks to everyone who has visited and made this blog come alive!
Nuffnang is running a HTC mobile phone campaign on my blog for a few days and this triggers something personal in my mind.
Many friends own PDA phones but I have not found the need for one myself so far. Of course, I have been described by many as an IT dinosaur. So, I am not a good reference, I guess.
A friend just bought a HTC mobile phone a month ago and he says that it's pretty decent and very useful. Maybe, just maybe, I should consider a PDA phone too. Do you own a PDA mobile phone? What is your experience with it? Is a HTC good or do you think that other PDA phones are better? I would appreciate any good advice. :-)
The STI clawed back 20.44 points today to close at 2,981.31 on respectably high volume. U.S. Futures are all showing an upward bias as of now. This bull has legs.
Despite guarded sentiment, Phillip Securities says longer-term outlook for market still positive: “The reaction to Goldman’s fraud charges could eventually be trumped by what has been very positive S&P 500 earnings results.” Written by The Edge, Tuesday, 20 April 2010 13:30.
CapitaMalls Asia: Another black candle day as price closed at the support identified at $2.20. My overnight buy queue was done. Will the counter retest the low of $2.19 made in February this year or would price bottom here and start a basing process to form a double bottom? Only time will tell. Stochastics is suggesting that the counter is very oversold and further downside should see the next significant support at $2.12.
Golden Agriculture: Another doji as price stays above the rising 20dMA. Volume has reduced. All MAs are trending upwards. From the MFI, it is obvious that positive buying momentum is lacking. Hard to say which way this might go. So, no fresh positions for now. Would buy some if price retraces to 56.5c.
China Hongxing: Closing at 15.5c, it formed a gravestone doji as price touched a high of 16c today. Although it is a gravestone doji, I think it more positive than negative here as price did not touch 15c the whole day. This means that, for the first time since 26 January, China Hongxing managed to trade at or above the 50dMA the whole day. The MACD continues to rise and seems to be sneaking a peek above zero, heralding a return of positive momentum. However, volume is anaemic and this will have to expand for a convincing move up.
Courage Marine: Low volume day as MFI and OBV both turned up slightly. Not much to say here. I would accumulate on pullbacks. Overcoming the gap resistance at 23.5c should test the immediate target of 25.5c. Eventual target is still 27c.
Saizen REIT: Someone sold down 3m warrants and 1m shares at 7.5c and 16.5c respectively, rather late in the day. This caused the OBV and MFI to both turn down. 16.5c is now the new floor for Saizen REIT. This is a support level provided by the 50dMA. My overnight buy queue for more warrants at 7.5c was filled.
Healthway Medical: 16c is still holding up nicely as the support. OBV is flat. No obvious distribution. MFI is declining gently, which is logical. This counter might just be basing at 16c for a while. Further downside will find support at 15c.
NOL: Formed a higher low yesterday as it closed at $2.24 today, forming a wickless white candle. Nice. Uptrending OBV suggests continuing accumulation. Taking out the recent high of $2.35 would suggest an immediate target of $2.50. Eventual target is still $2.60. A rising 20dMA and candlestick supports should limit downside in the near term to $2.11 but a stronger support is found at $1.96.
Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings of $3.3 billion, or $5.59 a share, on revenue of $12.78 billion. Earnings nearly doubled from a year ago and the results were well ahead of consensus expectations. Posted Apr 19, 2010 05:16pm EDT by Aaron Task.
Most of my portfolio hardly budged as the STI retreated 1.5% today. The exceptions are the likes of CapitaMalls Asia and SPH. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, First REIT and Saizen REIT are holding steady. I believe that any further weakness would bring out the buyers as the problem in the USA with Goldman Sachs should not have any material impact here in Asia. It is not a financial meltdown or anything like it. It is a legal matter and the proceedings are domestic in nature.
CapitalMalls Asia: Closed at $2.21. I have put in my buy queue for tomorrow at $2.20. In the last three sessions (today inclusive), the volume has been reducing as price retreated. Stochastics has dipped into oversold territory. MFI is declining fast and OBV shows some distribution. Overall, not a pretty picture. Any purchase of shares in this company is now based on fundamentals, not technicals as expectations of a feisty reversal is out the window for now.
Golden Agriculture: Price closed at 59c, supported by the rising 20dMA. A doji is formed. This is, of course, a possible reversal signal. The MACD has just completed a bearish crossover. Further weakness will see support at 56.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA. I might reload then.
Healthway Medical: >2.6m shares sold down at 16c at 5.05pm, creating a gravestone doji in the process. This is the first time the counter has closed at 16c since 3 March 2010. The MACD has gone under zero, suggesting an end of positive momentum. 16c remains a critical support. If this goes, the next support is at 15c. That would be a nice price to accumulate some.
Saizen REIT: Some profit taking continues. MFI has formed a lower high but the OBV is flat, suggesting that although the buying momentum has stalled, there is no heavy selling down going on. The rising 50dMA is at 16.5c which coincides with my believe that 16.5c is the new floor for the counter and should be a strong support. Uptrend is intact.
SPH: A big black candle day as price managed to close just 1c above $4.00. Any further weakness will see support at $3.89 where we find the rising 20dMA. The rising 50dMA is at $3.82. I would accumulate on weakness. Uptrend is intact.
Courage Marine: Down 1c, MFI is dipping out of overbought territory. Any weakness should find support at 21.5c. The flat 200dMA should provide support at 20c in case of further weakness. I would accumulate on weakness as I like the fundamentals over the next few months at least. Uptrend is intact.
China Hongxing: Closed 0.5c lower on lower volume. Signs are still good that this counter is probably prime for a breakout. Price action is now trapped between the 50dMA (15.5c) and the 20dMA (15c) in a crab-like pincer. Going by the rising MFI and OBV since 30 March, the chances are good that price is likely to move higher.
Human beings remember well things which are particularly unpleasant or particularly pleasant. In short, human beings remember extremes very well. However, as investors, we really have to stay level headed and be in tune with the present, the current reality, and not let the past shackle us.
For example, I have a friend who bought a few hundred lots of Healthway Medical's shares when it was 12.5c, if I remember correctly, last year and sold most of them at 13c or so just before the price ran up. The investment in Healthway Medical was one premised on its relatively strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation. However, any shareholder of the company at the time would remember the months of malaise in its price action last year and my friend divested most of his shares. With only 100 lots left, he became reluctant to sell even as the price rose to hit the eventual technical target I identified at 19.5c shortly after.
When we spoke, he told me, "but I only have 100 lots left". I told him that he must not base his decision on the larger position he once had. He had to make his decision on what he had then which was 100 lots. So, the question to ask was: "if he did not have those hundreds of lots which he sold off cheap (on hindsight) and 100 lots were all he had to begin with, would he sell some, if not all, to realise some gains?" Freed from memories of the past, the answer was a loud and clear "yes". Never be chained down by what could have been. Focus on the present and what is.
Similarly, I have friends who told me that they should have bought Healthway Medical shares at 10c when I first started accumulating in mid 2009. That's the beauty of hindsight, isn't it? These same friends also said that they should have started accumulating Saizen REIT at 10c. The memories of the past chained them down and they could not act in the present.
I would tell anyone that I only started accumulating Saizen REIT at 13c, not 10c, and I kept on buying as its price rose. I bought more at 16.5c too. Why? The uptrend is intact and this has not changed. The fundamentals are still compelling. There is no reason for me to sell if the very reasons which compelled me to buy have not changed and are still valid. Mind you, these reasons could be fundamental, technical or both. I am not a purist. I am a pragmatist.
I might have shared some of these thoughts before in some other posts. I cannot remember but if I am repeating myself, I beg your pardon. Please humour me. Have a great Sunday!
I visited Google Analytics just now to see how my blog is doing. I was surprised when I found that the most viewed post is actually something I wrote in December last year when I first started this blog. I guess I am not the only one who is interested in building a high yield portfolio. Sweet! Or do you prefer teh-o kosong?
Here are the top 5 posts of my blog based on the number of pageviews for the period under review (March 17 to April 16, 2010):
Given the relative "youth" of the post in second place, I guess the interest in Courage Marine must be quite strong. Good luck to all fellow shareholders. :)
China Hongxing: Coincidentally, DMG & Partners issued a buy call at 2.50pm, approximately an hour after my post about how the counter might present a trading opportunity this afternoon. Their target price is 22c. Just like their target price of 30c for Healthway Medical, it is a 12 months target. So, I would stick to my earlier chart reading, recognising that if 15.5c is cleared, the next resistance levels are at 17.5c and 18.5c. For the report by DMG & Partners, please see: 16 Apr 10 China Hongxing: Buy.
Healthway Medical: Technically, the weakness is obvious as the support at 16c has been tested four out of five sessions this week. This support is provided by the flat 50dMA. If 16c goes, the rising 100dMA should provide the next level of support at 15c. OBV is flat and this should be viewed positively as it suggests that there is no heavy selling down of the stock. So, downward pressure is somewhat limited.
Golden Agriculture: Closed down 1c at 59.5c on heavier volume. MACD has made contact with the signal line and is poised for a bearish crossover. Things are looking somewhat bleak but let's see if the rising 20dMA will be able to push up the price next week. The higher high on the MFI does suggest a return of positive buying momentum. This would confirm that the counter is doing a correction using time. If the 20dMA fails to hold up as the support next week, the rising 50dMA is at 56.5c and the rising 100dMA is at 54.5c. These two longer term MAs would provide stronger supports then.
CapitaMalls Asia: Price has broken down from the sideways movement. I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55.
Courage Marine: Demolished the gap resistance at 23.5c in early morning trading to touch a high of 24c. The gap resistance soon reasserted itself and the counter ended the session at 23.5c. The white candle day took place on the back of much increased volume. OBV turned up sharply, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI continues pushing higher into overbought territory but if the bullishness continues, the index could stay overbought for much longer.
SPH: Price pushed higher to close at $4.07 but volume has reduced significantly. MFI has pushed higher into overbought territory. OBV continues its upward trajectory, suggesting continuing accumulation. Upside target is still $4.20 but it remains to be seen if this could be achieved. Volume should expand as price pushes higher for the upmove to be sustainable.
Saizen REIT: Extreme low volume day. Volume has not been so low in more than two weeks. There has been some profit taking going on but price has stayed firmly above the 20dMA. MFI shows a decline in buying momentum and OBV shows that some distribution has been taking place. Despite all this, price has stayed at 17c and this shows strong support. If 17c gives way, we should find a stronger support at 16.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA. It is my personal believe that 16.5c is the new floor for Saizen REIT if it is ever tested.
Please see: Saizen REIT: A symmetrical triangle?
I first blogged about China Hongxing on 6 March 2010. In that post, I said: "Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share. The share price closed at 14c on 5 March. CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether." Please see: China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.
On 14 March 2010, I blogged about the company again. In that post, I said: "The decline in China Hongxing's price seems to have halted and rebounded as it was supported by the channel support at 14c. The decline in price has been accompanied by a decline in trading volume. The Stochastics has just turned up from the oversold region. These indicators suggest that downward pressure is limited but it might be a temporary respite." Please see: China Hongxing: Downside target.
As it turns out, the limited downward pressure allowed China Hongxing to bottom at 14c. Its price made a bullish move up to touch a high of 16.5c before closing at 16c on 7 April on the back of very high volume. The 20dMA has been rising gently and the counter has been trading above it since 7 April. Immediate support is now at 15c, provided by the 20dMA. Immediate resistance is at 15.5c, provided by the descending 50dMA.
Since 8 April, volume has been reducing as price was capped by the declining 50dMA. Yesterday, volume expanded as price broke resistance to touch 16c but ultimately closed at 15.5c. The MACD has been rising and seems poised to cross zero to herald the return of positive momentum. Strictly speaking, I do not see a buy signal yet. However, technically, this counter might be prime for a breakout. A breakout would see the 100d and 200d MAs acting as resistance at 17.5c and 18.5c respectively. Might the current setup be good for a trade?
As I grow older and as I get to know more people and see more things, the feeling of personal insignificance increases. The growing knowledge of my ignorance is humbling.
I am but a frog in a well, seeing only a patch of sky. I have asked myself before in the past if I would ever jump out of this well. However, over time, I have stopped asking this question. Why? I wonder if I really want to jump out of this well. I have everything I need in this well and I am protected from predators. Perhaps, what I need is just a bigger well so that I can see a larger patch of sky. Better to be a happy and healthy frog in a larger well than to be a frog freely hopping in the open and be in constant danger of being preyed upon? Is this a bad thing, to be contented? Or perhaps I am just growing apathetic with age? Could it be wisdom as some told me that with age comes wisdom? I am not so sure since my usual rejoinder is that this is not always true.
Another high volume day for the STI. The index closed hardly changed today. Unless there are more definite signs to the contrary, the bias is for the index to continue rising.
CapitaMalls Asia: Turning in a set of impressive numbers has not helped its share price as it closed at $2.27 today. A big black candle day on higher volume. Fundamentally, this company is very sound. Technically, it has been rather weak. It has been consolidating since breaking down from an uptrend on 23 March. If downward pressure persists, I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55 which is a few cents more than DBS Vickers' target price of $2.51.
Golden Agriculture: Mixed signals persist as a white inverted hammer was formed today with price closing the session at 61.5c. Could we be looking at a correction using time? Could Golden Agriculture's price be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up? We have had a series of reversal signals but none has been confirmed as price closed firmly at or above 60c, the immediate support, in the last few sessions. MFI has formed a higher high after forming higher lows. Buying momentum is positive. OBV has not declined dramatically. The situation is very dicey. Wait and see. No fresh positions and I will hold on to my remaining shares in case the price goes higher.
NOL: Price did not close above $2.30 today and the buy signal on the MACD has been negated. Volume is much reduced compared to the previous session. This suggests that this is profit taking rather than a massive selldown. Further downside should be capped at $2.17, a many times tested resistance turned support. This is followed by $2.12. A continuing trek upwards would need to see the price closing above $2.30 firmly and the eventual target is $2.60 then.
Courage Marine: Clinging on to 22.5c, the MFI remains in overbought territory. I would accumulate on weakness and queue to buy more at 21.5c (one bid above initial support). Courage Marine's strong fundamentals and the improving Asian economies bode well for the company's fortunes in the near term.
SPH: A very nice white candle day on heavy volume as the price closed firmly above $4.00 at $4.04. The upside target is now $4.20. OBV is rising strongly, signalling increased accumulation and the MFI has pushed further into overbought territory. Any pullback would see $3.84 acting as a strong support.
AusGroup: Sell signal seen on the MACD. MFI in overbought territory. A pullback should find support at 63.5c. 70c is the immediate target.
You might have noticed the big blue box on the right side of my blog. In case you think it's an advertisement, it's not. I am collecting information on my blog's readership profile. From the latest figures, my blog receives, on average, 500 unique visitors a day but so far only 23 visitors have taken the poll since it started. :-(
Please take a few seconds to answer three simple questions in my poll if you have not done so already. Thank you very much. :-)
This might be the beginning of another series like "Replies from AK71". This time, it is "Tea with AK71". Imagine having tea with me one afternoon, realising much to your dismay what a talkative person I am, and listening to my thoughts on myriad issues. Small talk, that's exactly what "Tea with AK71" is going to be about. Another side of AK71? For sure. Darjeeling, anyone?
"Something I say more and more as I grow older is, "we can't make all the money in the world". It is probably something that many others say too but how many actually appreciate the essence of this simple phrase? When I miss a money making opportunity, I would shrug my shoulders and say, "what to do?". I do not see any point in berating myself or even making a promise that it will not happen again because I am almost sure that it will happen again.
Picture by Montwerx.
"I always say that chasing after perfection is like chasing after a rainbow. We can keep running towards a rainbow but will we get closer to the rainbow? The rainbow is an optical phenomenon after all. Pretty to look at but unreachable. Don't be too hard on ourselves.
"I make my money and others make theirs. We have different paths and make our money our own ways. We can share our methods and our experience but we would probably not have the same experience. This is natural and there's nothing wrong with it."
A most sterling performance by the STI today as it surged 48.14 pts to end the session at 3,019.74 on heavy volume. People vested in NOL, DBS, UOB and SembCorp, just to name a few, would have made quite a bit of money.
CapitaMalls Asia: Despite an impressive 1Q 2010 report, its share price barely moved and closed up 1c at $2.30 as it went XD. Consolidation continues. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were $110.9 million for 1Q 2010, 174% higher than the $40.5 million for 1Q 2009.
NOL: An impressive white candle day as price shot past the recent high of $2.24 to close at $2.30 after touching a high of $2.34. We have a buy signal on the MACD. OBV and MFI have both turned up. With such strong momentum, it is likely to power ahead. Closing above $2.30 convincingly would give an eventual target of $2.60.
Golden Agriculture: Another higher low formed on the MFI. Price action formed an inverted white hammer, another reversal signal. Signals continue to be mixed for Golden Agriculture. Will the improving buying momentum push the price higher? Initial support has been established at 60c. Channel resistance is at 64.5c.
Courage Marine: OBV turned up sharply as volume increased significantly. Price closed up 0.5c at 22.5c, forming a long legged doji, a reversal signal, as it touched 23c, the previous high. If the reversal signal is valid, price should find initial support at 21c. If the chart pattern plays out (neckline at 21.5c), we should see gap resistance at 23.5c taken out and the chart pattern resistance at 25.5c tested with a possibility of a push to the eventual target of 27c. Could we be seeing a beautiful symmetry in the making?
SPH: Volume expanded as price touched a high of $3.99, just 1c shy of the target of $4.00. MFI has pushed deeper into overbought territory and OBV has turned up sharply. Forming a white spinning top today as price closed at $3.97, will it push higher tomorrow? $4.00 remains the resistance to watch. If this is taken out, the next target is $4.20. A retracement would find initial support at $3.84.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buy signal seen on the MACD. Price touched a high of 23c before closing at 22c on much higher volume. OBV turned up. MFI has formed a higher low. 22c is still the resistance to watch but if price closes decisively above 22c in the near future, it would be resistance turned support. 23c is the immediate target. Immediate support is at 21.5c.
Golden Agriculture: A black spinning top. This is the seventh reversal signal in a row and seeing how price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band, a retracement to supports is probable: 20dMA is at 58c and 50dMA is at 56c. MFI formed a higher low but failed to form a higher high today. The OBV shows a lack of strength in accumulation. Of course, as usual, an upward movement in price with high volume would negate all bearish signals. This does not look likely.
Saizen REIT: Some profit taking happening today. 17c is initial support. If this goes, a much stronger support is at 16.5c. Notice of a Director's (including a director who is a substantial shareholder) Interest and Change in Interest: 12-04-2010, Starich purchased 1,000,000 Warrants on the open market. Mr Arnold Ip Tin Chee is one of the beneficiaries of a trust which directly own Starich. Hence, Mr Ip is deemed to be interested in the 1,000,000 warrants held by Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd in favour of Starich.
Healthway Medical: The counter traded at one price only today, 16.5c. The Bollinger bands are squeezing, it seems, and this usually means an increased volatility in price action is not far off. 16c remains a critical support to watch. On the face of it, things are not looking good for this counter.
SPH: A long legged doji confirmed the black candle sell signal from the previous session. Sell signal confirmed on the MACD as well. Price has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands. Support is at $3.84. SPH has declared an interim dividend of 7 cents per share.
Courage Marine: Although on signifcantly reduced volume, we have another black candle today. With MFI in the overbought region and with OBV turning down, the probability is higher for the counter to retrace to support. I see initial support at 21c.
AusGroup: In my last TA, I said "Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so." A big black candle day today as price closed lower at 66.5c. However, of note is the much lower volume on this pullback. The selldown has been mild. Any further selldown would find initial support at 63.5c
CapitaMalls Asia: No follow through on what had seemed like a promising up day in the previous session as a wickless black candle was formed today. It is reasonable to assume from today's action that this counter is trapped in a narrow range between $2.33 and $2.28. When everyone finally tires of looking at the charts, this counter might just surprise on the upside.
Golden Agriculture: A long legged doji. This is a possible reversal signal as price does not seem able to break resistance at 62.5c. However, the MFI has formed a higher low and OBV continues to rise. Golden Agriculture might just try to push higher. Channel resistance is at 64.5c this week.
Saizen REIT: Initial resistance remains at 17.5c. Volumes on down days have been relatively lower and this suggests a strong underlying support. A retest of 18c is still very likely. The descending 100wMA is also at 18c and this is likely to be a strong resistance.
Healthway Medical: Today's price action dashed the hopes of stale bulls. The counter's downward bias is re-asserting itself. Critical support remains at 16c.
SPH: Sell signal seen on the MACD. Big black candle day as price closed at $3.94. MFI is in overbought territory. A pullback should find initial support at $3.84.
Courage Marine: A premature attempt to move higher, it seems. Price ended unchanged. Any retreat in price should find support at 21c. I would accumulate on weakness as improving fundamentals make this counter more promising over the next few months.
AusGroup: Closed at 67.5c resistance level. Reached a high of 69c. Next resistance is at 70c. Price gapped up only to form a white inverted hammer which seems to suggest that fatigue is setting in. MFI has entered overbought territory. A perfect time to take some profit off the table? I think so.
I found these clips of recent separate interviews with Marc Faber and Jim Rogers as they shared their views on Greece and gold. Make good sense, as usual.
5 March 2010 Marc Faber on CNBC - Greece and gold.
26 March 2010 Jim Rogers on CNBC - Greece and gold.
CapitaMalls Asia: The reversal signal was confirmed today on moderately higher volume as a white candle was formed. Significantly, price closed above resistance provided by the 20dMA for the first time since 23 March. The MACD has made contact with the signal line and looks set for a bullish crossover. Stochastics has formed a higher low as it emerged from the oversold region. A retest of $2.41 is most likely in the event of a continuing upmove in price.
Golden Agriculture: Mixed signals seen. Sell signal confirmed on the MACD on a white candle day as price closed higher at 61c, forming a white spinning top in the process. The MFI has formed a higher low but note that volume is lower today, an up day, compared to the last two days which were down days. In TA, we work on probabilities based on the weight of the evidence. This is one of those occasions where I cannot tell if the chances are higher for further upside or a correction downwards.
Saizen REIT: After a short bout of profit taking yesterday, Saizen REIT formed a dragonfly doji today on higher volume as price closed at 17.5c. MFI continues rising as the sell signal seen on the MACD yesterday was negated.
Healthway Medical: Price broke resistance today and touched a high of 17.5c before closing at 17c, the resistance provided by the declining 20dMA. Volume expanded and it seems that the MACD might do a bullish crossover with the signal line. MFI has formed a higher low, suggesting a return of buying momentum. OBV has turned up. All these are providing hopeful signals to people who remain bullish on Healthway Medical in the short run. Another chance to sell at 18.5c, perhaps?
SPH: Another white candle day for SPH as it closed at $3.97, just three cents short of the target I have for it at $4.00. The MACD is tearing away upwards from the signal line. Very bullish. OBV is rising steeply, suggesting ongoing accumulation. The MFI has moved into overbought territory but the momentum suggests that $4.00 is almost a foregone conclusion. After, $4.00? I see $4.20 as the next resistance.
Courage Marine: The price closed at 22.5c today, a high achieved on 29 March. A white candle day on the back of increased volume is reassuring for bulls. OBV has turned up and the MACD is moving higher up away from the signal line. The technicals suggest further upside and my eventual target remains at 27c, the high achieved on 28 Sep 09. Gap resistance at 23.5c will have to be overcome first in such an instance.
AusGroup: In my last TA, I said that "the MFI has formed a higher low. This suggests that buying momentum is still strong. OBV suggests that there is no distribution yet. AusGroup might try to push higher again but things are looking dicey". AusGroup closed at 65.5c today and looks like it might push higher. Congratulations to those vested.
A reader, Jason, has provided, in my opinion, a wealth of information on dry bulk carriers and what we should be concerned about in the next few years. I would like to highlight Jason's comments here in a proper post:
"...there are monthly publications that cover dry bulk extensively. You can try shipping.capitallink.com - links to lots of shipping information, ship indexes and its weekly newsletter has got plenty of information also on dry bulk shipping.......
"Just so i give you an idea of what dry bulk shipping is all about category of ships:
"VLOCs (very large ore carriers) - primarily used to carry iron ore, Vale will become the owner of the largest VLOC fleet in the world.
"Purpose is to get economies of scales to move iron ore from Brazil to China, compete against BHP/Rio who are much nearer vis-a-vis Australia.
"Capesizes: Moving mostly the hard dry bulk cargoes viz iron ore + coal (usually 120,000 dwt to 220,000 dwt range)
"Panamax: moves coal/iron ore/grains (70,000 dwt to 120,000 dwt)
"Handysizes/Handymax/Supramax: moves everything under the sun - offers the greatest flexibility due to their size, can stop at any port of call to unload (5,000dwt to 69,000dwt)
"To gauge charter rates, you have to look at their respective indexes : BCI (baltic capesize index), BPI (panamax index), BHI (handy index)......charter rates for panamaxes have overtaken capesizes! This was driven by the grains markets - 5 biggest producers being USA, South America (Argentina/brazil), Russia, Europe, Australia.
"Right now, fleets are looking to Asia for business - China (iron ore + coal), India (coal), Japan (iron ore, coal), Korea (coal, iron ore) why? Cos Asia houses some of the biggest steel producers in the world! China - Baosteel/Shagang/many more. India - Arcelor Mittal. Japan - Nippon Steel. Korea - POSCO
"Right now,USA gets its iron ore from backyard (domestic + Canada). Europe still imports from Australia/Brazil but not much cos their economy is still in the toilet for now.
"Coal is very much part of the steel production (used in the blast furnaces) and power plants, of which India especially is lacking in the latter while China needs the former! Why the boom in China? Biggest car mkt in the world (13.6m cars in 2009), property boom, infrastructure spending from new stimulus package in 2010.
"So ships will be everywhere but mostly with an eye for Asia. China is gobbling up every known commodity on earth - copper/aluminium/zinc etc, wheat, cotton....rates keep going cos charterers pay more to get ships out from the far east to Europe/baltic/atlantic.
"So long as Courage Marine can focus its biz on China/Asia/India exclusively, the upside is there. And we all know doing biz in China is all about guan xi......:) Keep that guan xi and you are OK.
"As for the progressive new ships coming on board, the ship owners will suffer the most whilst the charterers will be laughing to the bank - i can pick and choose my shipper!"
In my reply, I suggested that the demand for dry bulk carriers is likely to remain strong in Asia but as Jason pertinently pointed out, the world of dry bulk carriers would be focusing on Asia to pick up the excess capacity and with new ships joining the fray in the coming years, a lid might be put on earnings with increased competition.
Based on my analysis of Courage Marine's numbers, with their strict cost management and very low gearing, I believe that they will be able to do relatively well. If revenue reduces and costs stay low, we can weather storms. If revenue reduces and costs are high, we are most likely on a sinking ship.
Courage Marine is also very focused in offering their services in the Greater China region where growth is the strongest in the world. Since 2001, Courage Marine has built a good name for itself in this region. It is small but nimble. As long as Asia continues to do well, Courage Marine would be a key beneficiary.
A China Bubble? People Have Been Saying That Forever
Posted Apr 08, 2010 09:46am EDT by Henry Blodget
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