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Showing posts with label high yields. Show all posts
Showing posts with label high yields. Show all posts

High Yield Portfolio - Update.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Sometimes, we just stumble upon a good thing. One of my inaugural blog posts when I started ASSI on Christmas Eve 2009 remains the most popular blog post today. I am talking about "High Yield Portfolio".

In October last year, a reader asked if I would do an update on the portfolio and I did. However, it was a "Reply from AK71" kind of thing and were mostly one-liners. See it here.

Have I deviated much from the first time I introduced this portfolio for investors who are more interested in investing for income? Not much. I am still invested in all six counters although the weight of each counter in the portfolio could have changed somewhat.

My largest investment is based on rather contrarian ideas and has attracted some skepticism, putting it mildly. I started investing in Saizen REIT at 13c a unit and I kept loading up.  Even at 16.5c a unit, I bought some. For sure, this is an under-performer in terms of capital appreciation. However, I invested in this with a view that it is grossly undervalued and that things could not get any worse. So, if we take care of the downside, the upside should take care of itself. The annualised DPU of about 1c is much lower than my estimates from a year ago and, at first glance, seems unattractive. I did not take into account the amortising nature of its new loans then. However, when we realise that the DPU could actually be 50% higher if not for the amortising nature of its loans (unlike all the CMBS before), it is immediately apparent how strong this REIT's cashflow from operations actually is. See: 2Q FY2011 results.

My second largest investment is also rather controversial: AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Reading some other blogs as well as comments left in my blog, I realise how there is still deep seated mistrust of its management. This is despite the fact that it is quite a different animal from its MI-REIT days. It is financially stronger and it has two strong sponsors. It has all its financial requirements well looked after and even managed to refinance its loans at a lower interest rate. Some people say that they were the early investors in the REIT during its MI-REIT days and that they would never recover their money. It might surprise them to know that I was also an early investor but when the REIT was recapitalised, I looked at the numbers and decided that at 20.5c, it was a safe investment promising an almost 10% distribution yield. I increased my investment in the company by some 5x right away and I have recovered all my losses and more since, especially with the rights purchased at 15.5c/unit in September last year. See: Rights issue. Would I buy more now? At 20.5c and with an estimated DPU of 2c for a distribution yield of 9.76%, why not? See: Acquisition of Northtech.

My third largest investment is now in First REIT after its recent rights issue. A blog post of mine says that this one is for keeps and I still believe it is so. See: This one is for keeps. Actually, it is more so now after the rights issue and acquisitions. An expected DPU of 6.4c and the current price of 74c, it will deliver a distribution yield of 8.65%. With gearing low at 15% or so, it has more headroom to gear up for future acquisitions which could bump up DPU. See: FY2010 results.

My fourth largest investment is in LMIR. The investment was premised on a robust Indonesian economy with 60% of its GDP from domestic consumption. However, I do not like the idea of the management losing lots of money in foreign exchange forward contracts. See: Foreign exchange forward contracts. I do, however, recognise that this is a stable passive income generator and exchange rates (Rupiah/S$) should be quite stable from here. DPU for FY2010: 4.44c and at a unit price of 54c, that's a distribution yield of 8.22%.

My fifth largest investment is in SPH. No need to say much here. SPH is one of the highest yielding blue chips I know of. Although it is synonymous with The Straits Times and other publications, it is really its exposure to real estate that I really like. I especially like the fact that it owns and manages The Paragon on Orchard Road. I also like that fact that it is a co-owner of the soon to be completed Clementi Mall. Would I buy more now? The yield is still about 6.5% even at recently traded prices. I might buy more if price were to weaken further. See: Final dividend.

My smallest investment in this High Yield Portfolio is in Suntec REIT. This REIT was something I went in big at about $1.00/unit, give or take few cents, with a view that it would be a beneficiary of the expected improvement in tourist arrival numbers and improving office rentals. Technically, it was also looking good then. I think it is quite boring now with price at $1.50/unit or so. I have divested most of my investment in this REIT and still retain a small investment. Expected DPU for 2011: 9.7c. See: Buy calls.

Do I have any counters I would consider adding to this High Yield Portfolio? Yes, there is one: Cache Logistics Trust. I have blogged about it regularly and did so recently again. Read it here. I could replace Suntec REIT with Cache Logistics Trust if the conditions were right.

Saizen REIT: AK71 responds to a forum.

Monday, November 8, 2010

This is almost all of my very long comment in Wealth Buch in response to certain things said in a forum on Saizen REIT:

I have talked about the Japanese debt situation and how this has no impact on Saizen REIT before:

Japan's debt issue and Saizen REIT

As for the S$/JPY exchange rate and how the strong JPY is likely to weaken in time, we have to remember that exchange rate is bilateral in nature. The JPY could also weaken if the S$ strengthens.

MAS is allowing the S$ to strengthen in order to contain inflationary pressures. Will it allow the S$ to strengthen much more? If it does, would it not impact our exporters negatively? MAS is likely to be very cautious.

The residential real estate which Saizen REIT is vested in is below replacement cost. This means that no one in his right mind would construct new buildings. The supply side has stalled. The demand for inexpensive accommodation is strong and I have a blog post on this recently.

Asterisk Realty: Advisory for Japanese real estate

Saizen REIT owns freehold properties. Income distribution is therefore perpetual, ceteris paribus.
As for rental rates lowering 4% in Saizen REIT's latest tenancy renewals, how much of its total tenancy were so affected? Would such a trend continue?

The assumption that rental rates would continue to lower in Japan is just an assumption and is something waved around by people who think that Japan is going to the Land of the Dodos.

Jim Rogers is long JPY and believes that it will remain strong.  Marc Faber believes that people are so bearish on Japan and have written it off that it is a strong contrarian play. The JPY is still viewed as a safe haven.

In recent months, China's purchase of JGBs caused the Japanese government some concerns. The Chinese recognise the safety of JGBs compared to US Treasuries and have been diversifying away from the latter. As long as there remains a strong demand for the JPY for various reasons, the JPY is likely to stay strong. It's simple economics of supply and demand.

The recent revival of interest in Japanese real estate because of the sector's amazing yield is likely to increase demand for the JPY too. People who want to invest in Japanese real estate must pay in JPY.

It is not wrong to say that the high yield is normal for real estate in Japan but such high yield is not normal for real estate in some other countries, countries in which investors would like to get better returns for their money.

Related posts:
Saizen REIT: AGM on 19 Oct 10.
Japanese real estate: Has it bottomed?

Increasing demand for S-REITs.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Morgan Stanley says that S-REITs will benefit from low borrowing costs and a stronger S$. The high dividend yields make S-REITs attractive with limited downside.







Although Morgan Stanley specifically mentioned Mapletree Logistics Trust and Ascott Residence Trust as being upgraded to Overweight, I believe that smaller S-REITs with even higher yields will get some attention soon as well. It is a matter of time and I will be patient.

Today, Saizen REIT saw its 15.5c sell queue bought up to the tune of 6,068 lots. There were three trades which were buy ups of 1,000 lots each. Could this REIT be attracting the interest of some deep pocketed investors?

Incidentally, I have accepted and paid for the rights of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT this evening. I also applied for some excess rights.  Hope I get some. To fellow unitholders, please remember that the deadline is 7 Oct (Thu), 9.30pm for applications by ATM.

Related posts:
Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: Rights issue.
Saizen REIT: Better than expected DPU.

Do you want to be richer?

Saturday, October 2, 2010

The original title of this blog post was "Do you want to be rich?".  Then, I decided to change the last word as it would be more inclusive.  Almost everything is relative in this world, after all.  Few things are absolutes, such as death.  Even then, there could be debates on the different degrees of death. 

Oh well, modern society does complicate things.






This blog post was inspired by a recent late night chat in LP's infamous cbox. I was just sharing my ideas on how we could generate passive income from the stock market when a person mentioned that not everyone has $500k to begin with. 

Well, unless we are very lucky, I doubt anyone would have that kind of money from day one.  Then, a long discussion ensued in which I felt there wasn't any real engagement. 

Anyway, if someone feels that way, it could be possible that there are others who feel the same way.  Hence, the genesis of this post.

Let's go back in time. In an earlier blog post, I mentioned a personal aim for a minimum of $50k passive income from the stock market. I said that we just need $500k invested with a 10% yield.  I gave examples of REITs which I was vested in which I felt could help deliver this passive income target.  These are REITs which I blog about quite a lot and readers who are considering my strategy could be kept updated.






Question: How on Earth could an average worker amass $500k in capital through working and by being frugal? The operative word being "average". 

An example was given on how a Diploma holder making $2k a month would find it hard to achieve this. 

Well, if we were making $2k a month, we would have to make more money more quickly towards this end. 

However, if we did not do anything to change the status quo, we would continue making only $2k month. 

We cannot logically expect an improvement in our circumstances if we do not make an effort to change for the better. 

So, stop being "average".







For example, a certain full time private tutor I know managed to save $50k per annum! That's inspirational, if I do say so myself. He probably took on more students and worked harder. He should perhaps up his fees but that's just me. All of us could make incremental changes to our lives to be more productive.

What is the first step towards passive income generation? 

Find a job that pays us as much as we are worth or more than we are worth. Do not shortchange ourselves.  

If we are worth more than $2k a month, find people who are willing to pay us more.  If we are only worth $2k a month, find ways of increasing our value. Upgrade ourselves.

I would like to share another example here. I had a fellow soldier for a student when I was in the Army.  I gave him free English classes because he was not from a well to do family and the evenings in camp were pretty free anyway.  He took his 'O' Levels English paper twice before and he could not make the grade but he did not give up. 

I was then 24 years old and had just graduated from university but I was quite a bit older than he.

After a few months of lessons, I advised the student that perhaps there was another route that he could take. He should spend some time thinking of what he was really interested in and what he was good at.  Doing English was an uphill task for him.  

When I met him again a few years ago, he told me he was doing some IT stuff which involved laying cables and networking workstations. It was all Greek to me but he was doing very well with a pay of more than $6k a month! This is a success story which I still share with my students today.






Find your strengths and build on them.

Unless we are physically or mentally disadvantaged, if we would like to be richer, we could find ways of doing it.  

If we thought that making $2k a month was what we were supposed to make and that it was our fate, then, it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

If we wallow in self-pity, the only people who would show us sympathy would be people with the same mindset. It becomes a reinforcing vicious cycle! 

We build our own traps!








If we want to be richer, make it happen. How? The will must exist and it must be strong. Where there is a will, there is a way! This rings true.

When we make money, we must know how to save money. Recognise what are our needs and what are our wants. Fulfill the needs and delay gratification of the wants. Save as much as we can. 

Once we have an amount of money which could cover a year or two worth of routine expenses, we can start thinking of investing the rest.

Must all that $500k capital be from working hard and being frugal? 

Going back to an earlier blog post, I mentioned that when we invest in income generating assets, the passive income generated could be re-invested or it could be spent. If we re-invest, our targets (be it $500k or $100k) could be achieved sooner.  

This is the power of compounding.








To illustrate the power of compounding, let me use an institution in Singapore that we are all familiar with: the CPF.  When I first started working, I was thinking of how probable it was for me to meet the CPF minimum sum set by the Singapore government by the time I retire. 

Most of our contribution goes into the Ordinary Account (OA) while a much smaller sum goes into the Special Account (SA). 

At the face of it, 2.5% interest for the OA and 4.0% for the SA have only a 1.5% difference per annum but think of it a bit more and we realise that that the SA pays 60% more in interest compared to the OA!  Furthermore, if we compound 4% per annum, it becomes a very powerful force!

So, I voluntarily transferred my OA money into my SA for the first few years of my working life. Then, I let the government and time help me meet the minimum sum required through compounding 4% interest per annum.  Every 10 years, the SA money would grow 50% even if the monthly contributions should stop.





Do you want to be richer? 

Obviously, you do, otherwise, you would not have reached this part of the post. How soon do I think we could amass S$500k from the day we start working? 

To give a specific time period is difficult because it would depend on each person's circumstances but my point is that if we have the will to achieve it, and if we are physically and mentally whole, we will find ways to do it.


Related posts:
1. How much to have or how much to use?
2. 7 steps to creating passive income from stocks.
3. Building and preserving our wealth.
4. A minimum of $50k in annual passive income.
5. Money management: Needs and Wants.

Roads to wealth creation in the stock market.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

I have a friend who is very risk averse and views the stock market as being fraught with danger. He basically thinks it is a jungle with snake pits and poisonous gas bogs. I am inclined to agree with him which is why it would be most advantageous if we could find a guide who would walk with us.

Having read some personal finance blogs, my friend decided that he wants to try to grow his wealth by investing in the stock market. A commendable change in attitude, if I do say so myself. He wondered if he should try his hands at trading the market and maybe he could grow his wealth quickly that way. I told him candidly that he could make a lot of money that way, the operative word being "could".

I shared with him how I made a lot of money from March 2009 to January 2010.  However, that was a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a lot of money and I was lucky to have participated. Was I smarter than the average investor during the months of March 2009 to January 2010? I don't think so. I was probably just at the right place at the right time. I also told him how I lost a lot of money as well prior to the aforesaid winning streak. So, to me, it's quite simply all about timing.

I told him he might want to invest in some companies and REITs which could give him a yield of 6 to 10% per annum.  This took into consideration his risk averse personality and the current high prices of stocks. I believe that investing in some companies and REITs with strong fundamentals and high yields would be best for him. I also impressed upon him that these companies and REITs could see their share prices fluctuate but since he is investing for income, he should not have to worry too much about the day to day fluctuations in price.  This is a big advantage of this strategy.


How much could he afford to invest?  After doing some calculations with him, setting aside some money for emergencies and daily expenses which amounted to several months of his salary from active employment, he had a capital of about $100k to invest with. I suggested a basket of REITs and companies which he could invest in when prices next pull back (as prices do not usually go up in a straight line). Even then, don't put in all his money at one go but split his funds into 4 or 5 tranches.  This is hedging in case prices do fall lower.  If he has some knowledge of TA, he would be able to spot supports and trends and would be able to decide if he should pump in more funds each time prices fall or if he should wait.  So, learn some TA, he shall.

After saying all these, he was quite pleased but at the back of his mind, there remained a nagging thought that he could grow his $100k to $500k in the next 10 to 20 years if he traded actively. I simply smiled and told him to go learn TA and trading strategies.  There are courses, websites and blogs aplenty.  Could I not teach him? I told him honestly that I am not a very good trader. I use a combination of FA and TA, FA to spot undervalued stocks and TA to spot entry and exit prices. The high yield counters I am vested in could possibly go higher in price as they are mostly undervalued.  I am quite confident and comfortable with my approach. It might or might not be for him.

I also suggested that he could simply wait for the next crash before going into the market. Buy at a time when there is abject pessimism and when most have given up on the market. Is it that simple? Well, it could be, I said. Why bother to trade actively (especially if we are not very good at it)? Just save his money and continue saving as much of his monthly salary as he could.  When the next crash comes, he would be ready.  Load up then and get ready to see his wealth double ... or even triple.

The Chinese have a saying that "one type of rice feeds a hundred types of people". There are many strategies to wealth building and we simply have to find a strategy that works for us.  Age and how much money we have to start out with have a part to play, perhaps, but I believe that ultimately, we must be able to sleep well at night with our decisions in life.

Related posts:
Risks and rewards: TA and FA.
Excuse me, are you an investor?
Seven steps to creating passive income from the stock market.

High yielding REITs.

Monday, August 9, 2010

I came across an article which reported Morningstar analyst John Coumarianos saying "I guess people are so exasperated with earning nothing on money market [funds], so they're opting for the 2 to 3 percent [yield] that they're getting on a REIT fund".


This is a reference to the situation in the USA.  2 to 3 percent yield? That's peanuts compared to what we are getting from REITs in Singapore!  I mentioned before that a 5 to 6 percent yield in a REIT is not enough to attract me because I can get an almost 10 percent yield in some REITs here. I think investors in REITs here are spoilt!

After the subprime mortgage crisis, all types of real estate investments were punished. Many experts thought that commercial real estate would be the next big bust. "The headlines were all so bad with the housing market," Sorensen says. "REITs don't have a ton to do with the housing market, and expectations there were so depressed. The reality has been better than expected."

Read the article here.
Will the REITs Rally Continue?
, On Thursday August 5, 2010, 11:43 am EDT

Related post:
Create more passive income with limited capital. 

Do not fear the selldown.

Friday, May 21, 2010

It is safe to say that there is a lot of fear in the air. Palpable? Almost. What are we to do? Well, I am sure everyone has his or her own opinion as to the best strategy in such a situation.  Maybe, I shouldn't be so sure. So, what do I think? Well, I have been sharing my thoughts in this blog and what I now think is largely the same as before.

For a stock which is clearly in a downtrend, sell into strength at resistance.  It might be a lower high but it is still a high.  We don't want to sell at a low.  Then, wait patiently for it to form a base or to rebound and form a higher low.  It would be safer to take up a long position then.

Not all stocks are in a downtrend.  For stocks of businesses with strong fundamentals with their uptrends still intact, buying at supports is still the way to go. Look to the technicals for possible negative divergence as a warning sign.  Certain stocks might be rangebound and if the businesses have strong fundamentals, buying at the support of the trading range is what I would do.

Generally, our motivations for being in the stock market would determine the strategy that we adopt.  For me, I am primarily in the stock market to secure a passive income stream.  So, I would accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals which provide high yields. Examples are AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, Saizen REIT and SPH.

I also invest in growth stocks but these are generally not known for big dividend payouts and I invest in these with a view to trade.  Examples are Golden Agriculure and Healthway Medical.  Recently, I tried my hands at CapitaMalls Asia and lost some money, if you remember.

Do I think we are having a meltdown? Are we going into another recession or even a depression? I don't think so. Informed by Jim Rogers and Marc Faber, I have talked about the next crisis being a currency crisis and we are seeing the precursors of that crisis.  For now, I believe that the stock market will be going higher in time. Fiat currencies are not going to do a disappearing act.  Governments around the world will not allow a collapse.  So, in crises, we find opportunities.

There would be some people who want to sell away all their shares now, fearing a meltdown, keep their cash and wait.  There would also be those who are keeping all their shares, believing them to be good investments, and would be buying more shares at lower prices to average down.  In both instances, I would say, look to the technicals as we want to avoid selling at the lows or buying at resistance. We should not be afraid but we should stay cautious. Good luck to us all.

Related posts:
What are investors to do in downtrend?
A correction? An opportunity.

Revisiting High Yield Portfolio.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog.  It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.

Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:

Saizen REIT:  This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%.  Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT):  This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c.  Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.

LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c.  Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.

First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c.  Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.

Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38.  Gained 2.99%.  XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.

SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15.  Gained 15.3%.

Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%.  He would also have an average yield of 1.1%.  Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.

The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.

It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months.  Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.
High yield portfolio.

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I don't usually watch football but this is entertaining:
A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.

High yields: Successes, failures and the in betweens.

Monday, March 1, 2010

In this post, I shall share some personal experience with high yielding trusts and provide some numbers in the process for the purpose of illustration.

High yielding trusts which have done very well for me are those which meet the selection criteria I have talked about so many times before for REITs.  Investing in such trusts is mainly about generating a steady passive income (cash flow) and to do this well, we have to look for low gearing, high yield and attractive discount to NAVs. These factors will ensure that the trusts' distributions are meaningful and sustainable.  Here are some which have done well for me:

First REIT:  I first bought some in 2007.  It had low gearing, high yield but did not have a great discount to NAV.  My initial purchase price was in the mid 70c.  The dpu was about 6c per annum.  As prices slumped during this last crisis, I bough more at 42c.  The dpu has risen to almost 8c per annum in the meantime.  First REIT didn't have to issue any rights or do any share placements as its gearing was relatively low and still is.  The unit price of the REIT now is 82c thereabouts.

LMIR:  I first bought some in 2007, not during the IPO at 80c, but after the price dropped to 70c days after.  It had low gearing, an attractive yield and trading at a discount to NAV.  During the last crisis, I bought more and the lowest price I bought more at was 18c.  The dpu is now almost 5c per annum.  It didn't have to issue any rights or do any share placements as its gearing was very low and still is.  The current unit price is about 48c or so.

Suntec REIT:  I always wanted some Suntec REIT units but looked on in amazement as the price hit $2.00 at one stage.  I bought some at $1.03 during the downtrend.  It went on in the coming months to make a new low at 50c or so, if I remember correctly.  As the price recovered, I bought more at an average price of $1.00 or so.  NAV per unit was almost $2.00. So, the discount to NAV was very attractive. The dpu is about 10c and provides a handsome 10% yield for me.  Gearing level is not very low though. 

Hyflux Water Trust:  A business trust, not a REIT.  This is an investment which many of my friends remember because I was talking about it a lot early last year.  They listened politely mostly.  I was always interested in this trust as it has regular cash flow through its exposure to the water sector in China.  In January 2009, I looked at it again in greater detail as the price was so low.  I found the yield to be almost 20% then.  Gearing was non-existent and it was trading at a very nice discount to NAV.  The unit price was 30c or so at that time.  I went on a buying spree.

I did not keep all of these investments bought at low prices. I sold most of them for very nice capital gains, cycling the funds into laggard counters like Healthway Medical to make more money.  I kept, on average, 10% of my original positions in each of these investments to collect passive income in perpetuity.  It would have been nice if I had been able to keep my investments in these trusts in full and yet have more money to invest in laggard counters but, unfortunately, my resources are limited.

As you could probably tell, I was not always rigorous in making sure that all three criteria I talked about were met in choosing a trust.  In part, such trusts did not present themselves all the time and I had to make do with the best choices available.  This last crisis, however, was an opportunity of a lifetime.

It was also because I was not rigorous that in my early years with trusts, I made many mistakes in my choices. What we must always remember is not to focus solely on yields.  Also, do not invest in anything without doing our own FA. Here were some of my mistakes:

MPSF: It just got suspended today. This must have been my worst mistake. I listened to a very young "analyst" who said it gave upwards of 10% in yield and that the yield was sustainable. I invested a five figure sum without doing any analysis of my own. I later found out that MPSF invests in other REITs in Australia and as some of these REITs are private in nature, they could gear up to 80%! MSPF froze all distributions with the credit crisis but what is worse is the complicated situation it is in with so many cans of worms. There is no passive income for unitholders and, as far as I can see, there is no clarity as to its future. Must remember not to be swayed by sweet talking analysts. Always do our own homework.

FSL Trust: A friend introduced me to shipping trusts saying that I should diversify my passive income stream. He also introduced me to Rickmers and PST but I only have a position in FSL Trust. I still get passive income from the cash flow generated by its business and I receive  >8% yield per year based on my average price. High gearing in excess of 100% and the fact that its assets depreciate whether or not the economy does well make this a mistake for me.

CitySpring: This is a business trust. I was emboldened by the fact that this has the backing of Temasek Holdings. It had very high gearing but the management (headed by Sunny Verghese) said that they did not have to issue rights and people who thought they had to didn't understand their business. A few months later, they issued rights. The yield plunged and unitholders became poorer as they subscribed to the rights. It yields an average of 6.5% per annum for me.

There are a few others but the essence of the negative experience is more or less the same. For examples, with FCOT (previously Allco REIT) and MI-REIT (now AMPS AMP Capital Industrial REIT), I overlooked their high gearing levels at the time of purchase.  This is also a reason why I tell people to be cautious with Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) which I am vested in as well as its gearing is still in excess of 40%.

As creating a significant stream of passive income is still a very important objective for me, trusts with high yields must still play a part in the grand scheme of things. Rather than remember the pain and avoid these trusts altogether, I choose to remember the pain and find a way to achieve mastery over them. I hope that by freely sharing what I have realised to be the right way to approach REITs (and other forms of trusts) here in my blog, other investors who might not be in the know would not have to suffer like I did.

Portfolio strategy.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Done my weekly reading of The EDGE.  Goola Warden, Darryl Guppy and Michael Kahn are people whose articles I enjoy reading.  I have also learned a lot about TA from their writings.  In this issue of The EDGE, all of them have gone decidedly bearish about the prospects of global stock markets.  My own reading of the STI shows that the uptrend is still intact but the index is in a rather dicey situation should it not confirm the reversal signal seen in the last session.  With the US market closing in the red in the last session, the STI has to look to the SSE and HSI for leadership and we might agree that it is not all that promising.

So, what are we to do?  I have taken much of my profit off the table three weeks ago.  I have been averaging back into the market as prices came down to supports.  Looking ahead, I plan to continue accumulating high yielding counters at attractive valuations.  This remains the core of my investment strategy as my long term aim is to acquire a reliable passive income stream from high yields.

Which high yields would I want to accumulate?  After all, you might remember that I revealed a long list of high yields which I currently own.  Please see:  Grow your wealth and beat inflation.

One high yield which I have been constantly accumulating and will continue to do so is Saizen REIT.  Amongst the S-REITs, it is hard to find another REIT with as compelling a valuation. Having said that, there are a few others which I am keen on and I will keep an eye on.  They are AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR and Suntec REIT.  Any decline in unit prices of these REITs will be an opportunity for me to further secure yields of >10% p.a. from various sources.

I would be looking out for opportunities to partially divest my remaining investment in Healthway Medical as I stated in a comment to this post: Healthway Medical: Dwindling volume.  I said: "Healthway Medical does look like it is suffering from fatigue of late. With more shares being issued and with the lower target price by DMG, it is probably difficult for the counter to form a new high anytime soon."

I will also be keeping an eye on Golden Agriculture.  If the 100dMA support at 48c breaks, it is very bearish.  Any move up towards the 20dMA at 56c in the near future provides an opportunity to reduce exposure.

I still like the long term fundamentals of Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.  However, as Darryl Guppy expressed so well: "Markets are efficient at recording the emotional behaviour of participants.  They are less efficient at reflecting the economic fundamentals."  I have also said that it is important to know when to buy but it is also important to know when to sell: Rationale for partial divestment.

Good luck in the new week!

Grow your wealth and beat inflation

Sunday, January 24, 2010

In some interviews earlier in the year, Marc Faber said that the meteoric rise in global stock markets in 2009 was a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a lot of money and that 2010 should be a year of capital preservation (ie. not to lose money). Marc also said that, on average, it is still possible to get about 10% gain from the stockmarket this year.

People who know me would know that I have a lot of respect for Marc and I take his advice to heart. However, I believe that if we use fundamental analysis and choose to invest in companies with strong fundamentals that are still below their intrinsic value, coupled with technical analysis to determine fair entry and exit points, we could make more than 10% capital gain this year.
Stockmarket analysts.

Does this mean that we have to take on risk? Of course, there are risks involved. There is no free lunch in this world. Risk has to be managed, not feared. Easier said than done? After all, it's only human to feel fear.
Risks and rewards: TA and FA

Then, let this be an inspiration: "The rich would act in spite of fear. The poor would let fear stop them." I read this in a book while browsing in a bookshop recently. I cannot remember the title now. If we are petrified by fear, we would never do anything in times of adversity.  At the height of the bear market when the VIX was making new highs, when everyone was fearful of buying more shares, that would have been the best time to gradually accumulate shares of good companies.
Bungee jumping, anyone?

Convinced?  So, what do we do?  There are many suggestions by financial analysts on what to do with your money depending on your risk appetite and how to get better returns than fixed deposits in the banks. Frankly, to get better returns than fixed deposits is quite easy. A one year fixed deposit now pays as much as 0.8% per annum, the last time I check. There are also suggestions to leave our money in money market funds which pay 1.3% per annum, thereabouts. Lower risk than equities and higher returns than fixed deposits, though not guaranteed.

For me, the more important thing is how to get better returns that will protect us from the wealth erosion effect of inflation! A rather benign inflation rate could be about 3% per annum. So, if we leave our money in the bank, more than the contingency cash required for six months of expenses in case our regular source of income is terminated, we are doing ourselves a grave injustice with an interest of only 0.125% per annum in the banks. If we leave our money in a fixed deposit or a money market fund, our wealth is still shrinking as the returns lag inflation.
Be a pragmatist and prosper in 2010.

I wrote about capital gains and high yields in various articles in this blog.  I have shared my thoughts on inflation and investments in gold and real estate too.  On a daily basis, barring the days I'm away from home, I've shared my analyses on price movements of certain counters.  These analyses would hopefully contribute to capital gains.  It seems that I'm neglecting high yields.  After all, the theme of my blog is: "Have a more secure financial future in an uncertain world by creating a stream of reliable passive income with high yields." 
High yield portfolio.
Real estate as hedge against inflation.
Gold as an insurance against inflation.

I guess why I'm not writing as much about high yields is because they don't really have to be actively managed as much.  I am receiving dividends from a portfolio of high yields at this time on a quarterly, half-yearly and yearly basis, depending on the stock.  This is something which people who are relatively risk averse, who want to grow their wealth, fearing the effects of inflation could consider.

My portfolio of high yields at this moment include:
SPH
ST Engineering
Cambridge Industrial Trust
CitySpring
First REIT
FSL Trust
K-REIT
LMIR
AIMS AMP Cap Ind REIT
MIIF
Suntec REIT
HWT
Frasers Commercial Trust
Saizen REIT

These high yields are not all created equal and some were bought at prices I would rather forget.  Many, however, I am happy to say, I have purchased at much lower prices in the last twelve months.  The constant passive income they have provided me with makes me happier.

The profits I made from trading in the stockmarket, I make it a point to apportion some of it towards accumulating high yields.  The high yields I have been accumulating in the last few months were SPH, AIMS AMP Cap Ind REIT and Saizen REIT.  I have written extensively about these high yields.  So, I shan't say more here.
Passive income with high yields - Saizen REIT.
AIMS AMP Cap Ind REIT.
 
We have a responsibility to ourselves and the people we care for to have a secure financial future.  This is something we have to consciously work towards.  It is the responsible thing to do.  The journey is likely to be filled with obstacles but treat each one as a learning experience and grow with each step.  A good dose of luck doesn't hurt as well.  Good luck to us all.

Saizen REIT: "Good" bearish signs

Friday, January 8, 2010

Saizen REIT had another black candle day. Sell signal seen on the MACD. The MFI has formed a lower high which indicates that over the longer term, buying momentum has not really picked up. OBV shows only a slight bump up in accumulation activities.

As opined in an earlier post, with the rising 20dMA, the new support level for Saizen REIT is at 15.5c which was a many times tested resistance level. If this breaks, the next support level is at 15c which is supported by a flat 100dMA and a rising 50dMA.

A respite is actually good news for people who believe that Saizen REIT is undervalued and would like to start or continue accumulating. Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT

SPH - A chance to accumulate?

Thursday, January 7, 2010

On 2 Jan 2010, I mentioned in a post that I'm in no hurry to accumulate more SPH shares at current prices. On SPH's weekly chart, the declining 200wMA provides resistance at $3.80 and I would like to divest partially if its price moves to touch the 200wMA. Unfortunately, this did not happen. For a recap on what I said then, please see Rethinking SPH.

Today, SPH's price action on the daily chart formed a wickless black candle which crashed through both 20dMA and 50dMA before stopping at the rising 100dMA at $3.60 which happens to coincide with a 61.8% Fibo line. If the price breaks through the 100dMA, the 50% Fibo line provides support at $3.52. This happens to be a many times tested candlestick support and resistance level. A stronger support would be at $3.45. Rising 200dMA should limit further downside at $3.30.

MACD is poised to do a bearish crossover. MFI has formed a lower high indicating a lack of buying momentum. OBV has been declining steadily which shows distribution.

I like SPH for reasons stated in the earlier post. The current technical weakness might just present opportunities to accumulate SPH shares and I would do so at a price closer to $3.52. In the event that this support breaks, I would buy more at $3.45. For anyone who has yet to own any SPH shares and would like to do so, a hedge at $3.60 is not unthinkable as nothing is for sure. Remember that this would be a hedge. Don't break your piggy bank.

Saizen REIT - Breakout

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Saizen REIT had a nice breakout today as it started the day at 15.5c, above the resistance trendline which I've drawn in orange color, and proceeded to form a white candle. Volume expanded respectably with the upward movement in price. MFI has turned up sharply but being only slightly higher than the halfway mark, this counter is nowhere near overbought. MACD shows a strong buy signal. A quick look at the weekly chart shows the descending 100wMA at 21.5c. There is more upside to this counter yet although it should encounter initial resistance at 17c, the previous high.

As stated in my earlier articles about Saizen REIT in this blog, fundamentally, it is undervalued and should be worth a lot more. Factors in favour of Saizen REIT include (but might not be restricted to) stable income streams due to relatively inelastic demand for Japanese rental apartments, a lowering debt level, persistent insider buying, a strong Yen which means NAV should be adjusted upwards and could give rise to potentially higher yield as well. Over the next few months, Saizen REIT should see greater appreciation in price as more investors realise its true value. Congratulations to fellow unitholders!
Buy Japanese real estate
Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT

Rethinking SPH

Saturday, January 2, 2010

This is one of my favourite blue chips. Strong balance sheets, generous dividends and it will be a major beneficiary of the improving economy as well as the opening of the two integrated resorts (IRs) this year. However, I'm in no hurry to load up at the current price.

Its price is being supported by the 20wMA at $3.60 and the declining 200wMA provides resistance at $3.80. I would divest partially if its price moves to touch the 200wMA. I would do this as a hedge as I'm not so sure that its price would not revisit $3.40, the 61.8% fibo retracement which coincides with the declining 100wMA. $3.40 also looks like an important candlestick resistance/support level.

Revisiting Keppel Corporation

Friday, January 1, 2010

Keppel Corp is one counter which I bought at under $4 in early 2009 but offloaded too early. I like this counter. The world cannot do without crude oil. Other counters in the same theme which I offloaded too early as well were Ezra and Swiber. With crude oil strengthening in price, it might be time for me to revisit Keppel Corp.

In terms of fundamentals, if one were to seek exposure to offshore counters, Keppel Corp is a better choice as it has a stronger balance sheet. The economy might be recovering but I'm not sure that taking on too much debt is a good idea as is the case with Ezra and Swiber. Keppel Corp also pays out generous dividends which is very attractive to me.

Looking at its weekly charts, the negative divergence between price and volume from May 09 to Dec 09 is quite clear. Buying momentum has been weak as MFI continues its decline, forming lower highs. However, OBV has a gradual slope upwards which indicates longer term accumulation. Price has been hugging support provided by the 20wMA so far. Without any buying momentum, this counter is doing a rather precarious correction using time. Resistance is being provided by the very gradually rising 200wMA at $8.85. The falling 100wMA is unlikely to provide much support in the event the 20wMA breaks. A stronger support would be one provided by the rising 50wMA.

I would wait for a correction before accumulating. I would buy some at the 50% fibo retracement(S$7.55) as a hedge and would buy more if it goes to the 38.2% fibo retracement (S$7.28). If one is already vested, selling some if the price hits the 200wMA would be a nice hedge. Having said this, I am sure that the longer term trend of Keppel Corp is up as the rising 50wMA is on course to form a golden cross with the declining 100wMA in the coming months.

AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial Reit (MI-REIT)

Thursday, December 31, 2009

As expected, a re-rating upwards:

From Business Times, 30 Dec:
Moody's upgrades AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial Reit
Re-rating follows recapitalisation exercise


MOODY'S Investors Service has upgraded AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial Reit's corporate family rating to Ba2 from Caa1 following its recent recapitalisation exercise.

The industrial trust - which was formerly known as MacarthurCook Industrial Reit - underwent a change of name after a recent debt-and-equity-raising plan. The Reit placed out shares to new investor AMP Capital Holdings and existing sponsor AIMS Financial Group as well as other cornerstone investors. This was then followed by a rights issue and a new term loan.

Concluding a rating review that was started on Nov 9, Moody's said that the rating outlook for the Reit is stable.

In addition, its liquidity profile has improved substantially, without material refinancing needs in the near term, Moody's noted. The Reit's debt/capi-talisation leverage has fallen to 30 per cent, from 47 per cent as of Sept 2009. The Reit's major borrowing, a new $175 million term loan, is only due in December 2012.


Strategy: I bought a large chunk of MI-REIT at 20.5c after the recap exercise. At that price, it gives a yield of about 10%. It's trading at about 30% below NAV. It has the lowest gearing amongst Singapore industrial REITs. For anyone looking for high yield at a bargain, this is a BUY even at 21.5c. Once again, look to TA for guidance on entry and exit prices.
High yield portfolio

Real estate as a hedge against inflation

Wednesday, December 30, 2009


As Featured On EzineArticles

For the last year or more, I kept hearing and reading the word "deleveraging". Companies and individuals are all busy deleveraging. So, basically, people are saving more money, paying off their debts and spending less. Overall, it gives an impression that leveraging is undesirable and should be done away with.

Marc Faber famously said that, in Asia, the family run businesses in Hong Kong and Singapore have very little debt. Many rich families in Singapore don't have any mortgages. He thinks that Asian real estate will continue to do well. This gels with what Jim Rogers thinks about how we should own some real estate and he, in a recent interview in New York, actually said that he would buy some US real estate now if he were staying there.

In my posts on the subject of gold, I mentioned that I buy gold as a hedge against inflation and that I do not trade gold. We could also buy other tangible assets which would keep pace with or grow faster than inflation and protect or grow our wealth in the process. However, most of us are not in the same league as Marc Faber or the rich families he mentioned.

So, what are we to do if we want a piece of the action and own some Asian real estate? Do we work very hard to save money before we buy that piece of real estate? 100% cash upfront and without a housing loan? Or do we put down 20% and borrow 80%?

Quite simply, like any other investment, the answer lies in timing. Buy when the market is depressed or just turning up and hold for the long term. If you believe that the world is going to see extraordinary inflation in future, this is one thing we should do if we have the means. If we have the money, pay 100% cash upfront. If we only have 20% to <100% of the value, take a housing loan for the balance. As an example, I bought private real estate 6 years ago and took a loan for 80% of the price. The valuation is now 80% higher. If I were to rent it out, I would realise a yield of 7% p.a. This is much higher than the interest rate on the bank loan I'm servicing. Capital appreciation plus steady passive income. Sounds like a high yield stock? Sure does. Having said this, we have to keep an eye on the interest rates. If that goes up significantly and we do not have the means to pare down the outstanding loan amount drastically, it might be time to let go. If I had told myself 6 years ago that I should work harder and save more money before taking the plunge, I would have worked harder, saved more money but ended up poorer. The next time the property market has a correction in price, bear this in mind and take the plunge, if you have not done so already. Inflation is a powerful force. If we have the means, we must do all we can to protect ourselves against it. Buy Japanese real estate

Buy Japanese real estate

Monday, December 28, 2009

Marc Faber has been bullish on Japan for some time and recently in an interview with The Economic Times, he said, "I think as a contrarian, you really want the contrarian play. You should buy Japanese stocks and Japanese banks. This is the absolute contrarian play. Nobody is interested in Japan, all the funds have withdrawn money from Japan, they have given up on Japan."

Japanese real estate peaked in early 1991 and has been on a decline since. Believe it or not, the price of real estate in the 6 biggest cities in Japan have fallen by 50% or more while the decline in other parts of Japan is around 30%. Imagine buying a piece of real estate and almost 20 years later, you find that it's worth 50% less in NOMINAL terms. Imagine what's the REAL value lost. No wonder many Japanese do not want to buy real estate. However, it's precisely when everyone is so bearish that we should be interested.

Japanese land price fell from 1991 to 2005 unabated and rose in 2006 and 2007 before falling again. The Japanese real estate market is oversold and unloved. However, with Japan coming out of a recession and optimism returning, things are set to improve. If you could visualise this graphically, we might be getting a classic double bottom pattern!

From an article in Property Wire on 30 May 09:
There is growing speculation the Japanese property market has bottomed out with analysts forecasting an improvement in the economy. Credit Suisse Group AG said that property manager Nomura Real Estate Holdings operations are improving. Analysts said that the company's condominium, investment and brokerage operations are outperforming expectations.

From another article on 19 Jun 09:
The property market in Tokyo is set to rebound as easier credit and low prices entice overseas investors back to the Japanese capital, according to a leading banker. Kazuo Tanabe, president of Chuo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Japan's sixth largest bank, said that foreign buyers are showing a lot of interest in acquiring Japanese property. 'We are seeing more deals as prices bottom out and investors think that it's time to buy,' he said. Property transactions being negotiated now are up as much as 30% from last year, added Tanabe, as Japanese firms and individuals also seek to buy.

From an article on 18 Jul 09:
Giant investment funds are poised to start buying Japanese property in the first half of next year when prices are expected to be at rock bottom, it is claimed. Global investors including Carlyle Group, Blackstone Group and Lone Star Funds are still waiting for prices to drop a bit further, according to Ben Duncan, managing director of CB Richard Ellis Japan. 'The market is steering toward big, opportunistic funds. They're waiting for prices to fall further. At the moment they are not seeing as much distress as they hope for. But as the market starts to bottom out they'll probably start to buy,' he explained.

We have a chance to own Japanese real estate in Singapore at a bargain too. Yes, you guessed it, buy units in Saizen REIT! Buying Japanese real estate at this time is attractive because we are buying real estate with more than decent rental income on the cheap. Well, it's not as cheap as it was earlier this year but things are a lot clearer and there is much less risk now.

Although rents have declined since 1995, property prices dropped at a faster pace in the same period. From 1995 to 2008, rents fell by 11.2% while property prices slid 35%, according to JREI. With property prices falling, young people tend to prefer renting, while individuals migrating to urban areas from rural areas create another source of rental demand. (Source: Global Property Guide, 22 Oct 09)
Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT

Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR)

Saturday, December 26, 2009

I've always been a great believer in the Indonesian economy. I guess I have an advantage since I do plenty of business with Indonesians. My dealers would bring me to the malls for meals and shopping whenever I visit. I like what I saw. From late last year, I kept adding to my position in LMIR .

I traded along the way up from the lows and have reached a point where I have decided I would be keeping my remaining LMIR units till the price next peaks. Even at a higher average price of 39c now, my investment in LMIR will yield 13.3% p.a. (if the dpu remains unchanged). As of now, with very low gearing, there is no need for a cash call from LMIR. This remains one of my best investments in my portfolio currently.

I actually bought some at 18c but didn't dare to buy any at 16.5c. That was a time when we couldn't see the bottom yet. I bought some based on FA. Shortly after, prices turned up.

I was buying shares in LMIR, HWT, Golden Agri, Kep Corp, SPH and a few other counters then. I got SPH at $2.80 too but didn't dare buy more when it went to $2.60+. Everything I bought then, I bought based on FA. TA was just so bearish. I did explain my strategy to a close circle of friends and family. 

They were very kind not to mention it but I'm sure most thought I was crazy. hehehe...


People keep talking about the little tapped domestic market in China. With Indonesia at our doorsteps, I feel it would be a big mistake not to look at Indonesia's domestic market. LMIR is a good place to park your money as the middle class in Indonesia increases in size.

The current price of LMIR is still reasonable. From a FA perspective, the fair value I give to LMIR is about 70c.


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