CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.83.

CapitaMalls Asia gapped down, tested $1.83 support today and bounced off to close unchanged at $1.87. Although volume is pretty decent, it is lower than the previous session which was a black candle day.  The intra-day high of $1.88 was a many times tested support earlier this month and even if it should be taken out, the next resistance at $1.90 was also a many times tested support. This counter will have to climb a wall of worries, indeed, as supports are now resistance.

Although fundamentally strong, this counter remains technically weak as the MACD has just completed a bearish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. The MFI has also broken the 50% support to trend lower while the RSI is now resisted by the 50% line. Breaking resistance at $1.88 and $1.90 on high volume would give the counter a chance to retest resistance provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since breaking its nascent uptrend after breaking out of its multi-month downtrend, things are looking iffy. I am not adding to my long position until the technicals show that the uptrend is recaptured or a new one is formed.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Black hammer day.

Golden Agriculture: Resistance at 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture enjoyed a white candle day as price traded below the resistance provided by the 100dMA for most of the day. This white candle could be most misleading. In the previous session, although a black candle was formed, price closed at the 100dMA which acted as support.

So, am I saying that the share price would continue its fall in the next session? There is a good chance of this. However, due to the very steep fall in price in recent weeks, we could see the price moving higher to touch the trendline resistance which should be in the region of 73c in the next session or two.

TA is not about having a crystal ball and knowing exactly what would happen but TA is useful in that we would know exactly what to do if something happened.  So, in case price moved higher to 73c, I would reduce my long position. In case price moved lower, I would wait for it to go closer to the 200dMA at 63c before adding to my long position. That's my plan.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Testing 100dMA support.

STI off 1.3%; 3,090 worst case consolidation - DBS Vickers.

It adds, “equities remain one of the more attractive investment asset classes...in addition, the STI is not that far away from levels seen as attractive and where firm support lies.”

Monday, 31 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Raffles Education: Correction?

The fanfare that pushed up the share price of Raffles Education to touch a many months high of 35c came suddenly and provided the counter with a sugar rush which is now dissipating. The trendline support was broken four sessions ago and it now remains to be seen if the gentler trendline support below the 20dMA would be tested next. This is at 30c.

If I were to hazard a guess, 30c is likely to be a strong support as that is the price which formed the top of a small bowl before a breakout took place. Market participants would remember the price: not buying then led to missing out on a nice gain in the following sessions.

The MFI and the RSI show that the overbought condition has been corrected. The RSI is actually declining towards 50% and it would be interesting to see if 50% would act as support. The MFI which takes into consideration volume on top of price has flatlined just below the overbought region. This suggests that demand, although weaker, is still strong. Look at the trading volume and we see a semblance of a low volume pull back taking place. Buy more?

For anyone who wants to go long on this counter, being patient and waiting to buy some at supports in an uptrend is a good idea. I never like chasing. I rather like waiting for things to come to me.

Related post:
Raffles Education: A new property play?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 21c at XD.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT went XD today. Price closed at 21c but if we look at the trade summary, 6,459 lots were bought up at 21.5c while only 197 lots were sold down at 21c. I believe that support is strong for this counter at 21c. Remember that 21c is also where we find the rising 200dMA, a longer term MA.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this REIT and I will accumulate on weakness. For now, I look forward to receiving the income distribution on 15 March 2010.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3QFY2011.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 1.6% to 3,179.72 at the close of trading, erasing this year’s advance. The gauge fell 0.3% this month. All but three stocks in the benchmark index of 30 companies fell.
Monday, 31 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

ASSI 2010 Annual Report.

I am somewhat late in doing this. Somehow, it slipped my mind. Someone reminded me and, well, this is the report of how my blog did last year as promised.

Page loads, unique visitors and returning visitors all formed new records in the month of December 2010. The numbers in the chart are kind of small as this is a full year report. Let's see:

Page Loads: 
52,493 (92.87% increase from January 2010)

Unique visitors: 
32,169 (166.98% increase from January 2010)

Returning visitors: 
15,643 (175.89% increase from January 2010)

I think there are many who would come in to check on what are my latest thoughts on a daily basis which probably explains the 175.89% increase in returning visitors as well as the more modest 92.87% increase in page loads. Most are regular readers who would probably have read my older posts.

Although I am sure my blog would never be as popular as Xiaxue's or Mr. Brown's, that the number of unique visitors increased 166.98% from January to December 2010 is very encouraging. 32,169 unique visitors in December means there were more than 1,000 unique visitors per day on average.

I have said this before but no matter how many times I say it, it would never be enough: I have no doubt that I have some very loyal readers who are spreading the word.  Your support is encouraging and you can bet that I will continue blogging!  Thank you. :)

Tea with AK71: First cheque from AdSense.

Not long after I started this blog in December 2009, I signed up with Google AdSense to serve ads in the hope of making some pocket money on the side. A few months later, I took down all the ad spaces. This was after hearing rather negative stuff about bloggers being "banned" with little chance of being reinstated. I didn't want to have the same experience. Could be quite depressing, I thought.

However, a couple of months ago, while chatting with a fellow blogger, I was advised to just put up the ad spaces for AdSense again and if I did get banned, then, too bad for me. If I got paid, it would be a bonus. Mentally prepared thus, I ventured forth with AdSense once more.

Today, as I was sorting through four days worth of mail, I found a cheque from Adsense! My first cheque from AdSense! It added some cheer to a wet Sunday. :)

Tea with AK71: What does a bundle of new notes look like?

What does a bundle of new notes look like? More specifically, what does a bundle of new S$2 notes worth a total of S$2,000 look like? Here are a few photos taken from different angles:

It was my first time seeing notes wrapped up in "MAS" plastic shrink wrap. Very official looking.

OK, how did it feel like? Felt like a brick, a heavy one too.

Maybe, I am just a mountain tortoise. ;-p

Tea with AK71: Something from Hong Kong.

This is really funny. Took it off an English newspaper in Hong Kong. Didn't Wikileaks reveal that MM Lee said something about Kim Jong Il being attention seeking or something? ;-p

Golden Agriculture: Testing 100dMA support.

Back in Singapore. So nice to be back home! Although I am still feeling a bit unwell from the trip, I am sure I will be OK after a day or two. If I had stayed another day or two in Hong Kong, I would have been utterly miserable. It's the weather, I'm sure. I will have a blog post on this trip in my Travel Photos and Videos blog later this evening or tomorrow. Look out for it. ;)

A week ago, I said that "We could very well see the support provided by the 100dMA tested at 70c in the next session. If it should break, next support could be found at 66c where the rising 200dEMA would be approximating soon. The 200dEMA, being a long term MA, should be able to provide a much stronger support in case of further decline in price."

Well, price did not test the 100dMA in the following session but it did yesterday. In TA, it is hard to have exactitude but if we could get rough estimates right, that's not bad. OBV has gone lower which suggests continuing distribution. The 20dMA is about to complete a dead cross with the 50dMA. All eyes are now on the 100dMA and whether it could hold up as support. If it breaks, price could sink to 63c, the support provided by the flattening 200dMA. I might add to my long position then.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture.

CapitaMalls Asia: Black hammer day.

Feeling somewhat under the weather, I think the very cold and dry weather here is getting to me. No drinking session for me. I came back to the hotel, took a warm shower, drank herbal tea I bought from a convenience store and I am feeling so sleepy now. Looking forward to going back to tropical Singapore early tomorrow.

In a quick post last evening, I mentioned that CapitaMalls Asia's share price "closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious."

If I were not informed by TA, I could have bought more as price plunged today. Look at the high volume. I believe that the price weakness has brought out some shortists.

I received emails and comments regarding this counter. It is interesting that the counter is generating so much interest. To me, it is clear that many market participants are keeping an eye on the counter and waiting for clearer signs to go long here. Fundamentally, it is a strong company and technical weakness would offer opportunities for investors.

So, what am I doing here? Like I said, I have turned cautious and I am not adding to my position. I am waiting to see if the low of $1.83 would hold up as support. If it does hold up as support, I could add to my position. If $1.83 breaks, I would wait to see where is the next low.

Is there a chance of a reversal in the next session? A black hammer formed today as price gapped down at $1.88, touched a low of $1.85 before closing at $1.87. The bears won the day but the candlestick suggests some fierce fighting back by the bulls. So, although the black candle was formed on the back of much higher volume, there is some support.

Even if we know that a company has good fundamentals, waiting for the technicals to give clearer signs before going long is the way to go.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.89.

CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.89.

Price closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious. However, notice that the trading volume is, once again, very thin on a black candle day. It looks to me to be a continuation of a low volume pull back pattern.

Does low volume mean that price could not weaken further? Definitely not but if we look at the OBV, it is obvious that there isn't any distribution activity. In fact, if you ask me, the OBV has gone up slightly in the last 4 sessions which suggests mild accumulation. This is consistent with what I said in my last blog post that there are bargain hunters out there who are waiting to buy at lower prices.

So, what am I looking out for now? The previous low was at $1.87. This was formed earlier this month. Will price form a higher low at $1.89 and recapture the uptrend later on? Of course, we might have to draw a gentler trendline support too. Or will the price go down further to test $1.83? No one has the answer but with the very low volumes as price pulled back, I do not think there would be any drastic sell downs in the near future. I would wait for the situation to become clearer before making my next move.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Doji at $1.91.

SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

I was vested in E-pure when it was 20c a share thereabouts. This was back in early 2009. 

I was convinced that China's drive to keep its economy humming in the wake of the Lehman Brothers crisis would benefit the water infrastructure businesses. 





I was also heavily vested in Hyflux Water Trust at that time from 30c for the same reason.  

Read related blog post here.

E-pure was a Chinese company and was likely to be favored over Hyflux in China while Hyflux Water Trust was a business trust with zero gearing treating water for Chinese industrial estates and had a yield of about 17% at a unit price of 30c. 





I divested E-pure completely by the time it neared 60c a share and watched dumbfounded as the share price went on to form new highs, almost doubling from my sell price of close to 60c. 

Hyflux Water Trust was, of course, privatised a few months ago. 

Read related blog post here.





I have been wondering if I should re-invest in E-pure which has been renamed SoundGlobal for some time now. 

It remained on my watchlist but I simply refused to buy any of its shares at prices higher than 60c. 

That's just the memory effect working and, in this case, it seems to have paid off. Related post here.





I just told myself that if the price did not come down to more reasonable levels, there are always other investments out there.

Since hitting a high of $1.04 on 7 April 2010, this counter has not formed a higher high. It is currently hugging the lower Bollinger band as it fast approaches the lows of early September 2010 at 70c a share. 

The obvious difference is that the low of early September 2010 was part of a bottoming process and the MACD was getting ready for a bullish crossover with the signal line. 





The MACD is now declining rapidly in negative territory as its distance with the signal line widens. This is very bearish.

Having said this, both the MFI and RSI are in oversold territories and 70c, being a low that was the price of a successful bottoming process could provide some support. 

Whether it would hold up is another question. I would not speculate on the strength of the support here.





When to accumulate? 

We want to look out for possible positive divergence between price and the momentum oscillators or volume. 

We want to look out for the downtrend halting and clearer signs that price is breaking out of downtrend. 

I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. 





Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? 

I might if the other signs are encouraging.

CapitaMalls Asia: Doji at $1.91.

CapitaMalls Asia broke the trendline support today with price reaching $1.89 at one point before pushing back up above the trendline at $1.91 where it closed. For those who have been following my analyses so far, the question is how are things looking now?

Well, the weakness in price today brought out the bargain hunters as they pushed price back up to $1.91 and volume expanded modestly in the process. This suggests to me that at lower prices, buyers are waiting. However, it is quite obvious that the descending 50dMA is a strong resistance and people are probably just waiting to see if it could be overcome convincingly in future sessions. Breakout traders are waiting, I am sure. The 50dMA is currently at $1.94. Expect a wave of buying if resistance is taken out.

Volume has remained thin as trendline support is tested. Although I remain optimistic that price could move higher in the near future, that's just me. We really have to wait and see. I am no longer accumulating at the current support as I already have a sizeable position. We could very well see the counter trading sideways too.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.90 support.

Suntec REIT: Broke resistance.

I was just having a chat with Nick in LP's cbox not so long ago regarding REITs and their fair values. Nick mentioned that REITs with high gearing have little growth prospects and therefore will not see their unit price go up (i.e. yield will not compress). I think he mentioned that the stock market is rather efficient when it comes to REITs.

In theory, I agree with Nick. However, I mentioned that it is hard to be sure since how much a REIT should trade at is very often a matter of sentiments, this is the same with stocks. Certain REITs are small and are not covered by analysts. They could also be too small to interest institutional investors. Their unit prices could continue to languish even if they provide decent yields with relatively safe gearing. Certain REITs are obviously overvalued and give very low yields with relatively high gearing but they continue to enjoy much attention. For example, I would not bother buying into CMT. The yield is so unattractive.

Nick used Suntec REIT as an example of a REIT with high gearing and therefore it did not see its yield compress much. However, the last session saw Suntec REIT's unit price close at a high of $1.61, forming a wickless white candle, on the back of heavy volume. Yield is compressing and quite significantly too. The last time this REIT was at $1.61 was in Jun 2008!

Could we see this REIT's unit price move higher? A wickless white candle coupled with heavy volume is bullish. So, expectation is for price to move higher. However, the MFI is nearing overbought territory. In case of a pull back, it would be interesting to see if $1.58 could be resistance turned support.

Mr. Market is always right and he enjoys his hat tricks.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3QFY2011.

My first night on a working trip in Hong Kong and I am having trouble sleeping although I was feeling quite tired earlier. So, I went to the reception and purchased a card which allows me to have internet access for 3 hours for a fee of HK$40. Quite reasonable, I think.

First thing I did online was to check on results announced by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Its unit price touched 21c with 8 lots changing hands at that price in 4 transactions. Almost all of last session's trades were at 21.5c.

The recent weakness in this REIT's unit price could be attributed to some heavily vested investors anticipating a lower than expected DPU which came in at 0.51c, payable on 15 March 2011. The guidance was for 0.52c in a circular dated 22 Sep 2010. I am not at all surprised since I had expected a lower DPU of 0.5c myself when I revised the DPU and fair value of this REIT on 11 Dec 2010. Read my blog post here.

So, a DPU of 0.51c is rather pleasant for me. This could be due to the fact that "I did not take into consideration the other positive developments in the Market Update which is the 100% occupancy achieved for 15 Tai Seng Drive (85.7% as of 31 March 2010) and 23 Tai Seng Drive (84% as of 31 March 2010).  Conservatively, this should add about $400,000 to the REIT's annual rental income."

In its report, the management also said that the newly acquired property of 27 Penjuru Lane only contributed 78 days of rental income, being only acquired on 15 October 2010. So, could we expect next quarter's DPU to be marginally higher when the property contributes three month's worth of rental income to the REIT? Perhaps.

This REIT is still a strong proposition for anyone looking for a reliable stream of passive income. I have put in a BUY order at 21c in case the selling continues in the next session although I do not think anyone in his right mind would want to sell at that price.

Annualised DPU: 2.04c
Gearing: 32.7%
NAV/unit: 27c

See presentation slides here.

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CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.90 support.

CapitaMalls Asia closed at $1.90 support today on reduced volume. My overnight BUY queue at $1.90 was filled. Lowering volume as share price consolidates at support. Nice.

MFI formed a higher low suggesting firm demand. Higher lows on the RSI suggest positive buying momentum. It is not clear yet if share price would break out of resistance next.  Immediate resistance is now provided by the declining 50dMA at $1.95 while immediate support is at $1.90.

If price should weaken and close below $1.90, I would turn cautious and stop accumulating. If the low at $1.83 were not compromised in such an instance, I would buy more as another uptrend forms. If the low at $1.83 were taken out, we would want to wait for selling pressure to peter out before venturing back in. What would be the new low then?

If price moved higher and took out resistance at $1.95 convincingly, expect resistance at $2.00, $2.04 and $2.09. As we can see, CapitaMalls Asia is not just a long term buy based on FA but one that is based on TA too. The wall of worries is a tall one indeed.

I will be going on a working trip from tomorrow and would be kept busy. I might not be able to access the internet conveniently. Although I will try to log in and update my blog, I cannot guarantee that I would be able to do it. I will be back in Singapore this Saturday. Good luck to everyone in the meantime.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Borrowing on the cheap.

Saizen REIT: Divestment of K1 Mansion Morioka

It has been some time since Saizen REIT sold any building from its YK Shintoku portfolio. It divested K1 Mansion Morioka to an independent private investor for a cash consideration of JPY 55,631,452 (S$0.9 million). This building, located in Morioka, was built in August 1995 and comprises 6 residential units and 6 parking lots. The sale is at a discount of approximately 6.7% to valuation.

Referring to the annual report, as of 30 June 2010, K1 Mansion Morioka was 100% occupied and brought in a total annual rental income of JPY6,900,000. This means a gross yield of 12.4%. A good deal for the buyer.

Following loan repayment from sale proceeds of this divestment, the remaining balance of the YK Shintoku CMBS is about JPY 5.4 billion (S$84.6 million). Considering the cash reserves of JPY 0.5 billion (S$7.8 million) maintained by YK Shintoku under the loan agreement, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku is about JPY 4.9 billion (S$76.8 million).

Tea with AK71: Interest rates and inflation.

A topic on interest rates seems serious enough. Why have I put it under "Tea with AK71"? Well, it is because I want to talk about it in a more informal tone. It gives me an excuse to ramble and not be too careful in the way I write.

In the last one year, many have been talking about interest rates and how the low interest rates won't last and would go up in time. It seems to be a relatively safe prediction and, in general, I agree but when would it go up and by how much? That's the difficult question.

What goes up must come down one day and what is down would go up too. It is how things in the world achieve equilibrium. There could be exceptions but let's ignore these to keep this chat going.

I might have mentioned this in my blog before. I cannot remember. Think of China and what they are doing. They have increased interest rate more than once in the last few months due to inflationary pressures. Is increasing interest rates the only way to fight inflation? Well, there are many tools available and interest rate is just one tool. Like all tools, it has its limitations.

China has also increased bank reserves requirement in an attempt to reduce money supply. Interest rate and money supply are useful to a point in controlling inflation which are domestically created. They have little impact on exogenous factors.

The Chinese have a huge problem with inflation and much of that is imported. Remember that only a third of the Chinese economy is driven by domestic consumption. This is very different from Indonesia's 60%. How much of the inflationary pressure in China is due to rampant domestic over-consumption, therefore?

Raising interest rates won't help much and could make things worse. The more effective way to reign in inflation is what the Singapore government did: allow its currency to appreciate. Singapore too has a small domestic economy. The Chinese know that they have to let the RMB appreciate and they are just delaying the move.

The RMB is way undervalued and it is the main culprit in causing rampart inflation in China as the booming Chinese economy is heavily reliant on many imports just to keep its industries humming along. Its energy needs is just one such example.

The Singapore government does not use interest rate to control inflation. It uses the Singapore Dollar which floats against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners. If the MAS should hike interest rates (which it can't) to combat inflation, it could have a bigger problem on hand. Why?

Many Asian countries already have a problem of hot money flowing in, money looking for better returns. This money is usually from developed countries which are doing quantitative easing in the hope of jump starting or keeping their economy above water. In these countries, interest rates are more likely than not close to zero.

Money will go to where it is treated best and so, although the interest rates are pretty low in Singapore, a lot of money still find its way to our small island. For example, a 0.8% interest rate plus the prospect of  a 5% appreciation against its country of origin is very attractive for such funds.

The inflows have to be put to productive use and lenders (banks) will mostly offer relatively low interest rates to entice borrowers. More cheap debt and inflation continues. So, combating inflation is not a simple matter of increasing interest rates. If only it was that simple.

Now, one day, when the Chinese government decides to float the RMB more realistically, what would happen to companies with investments in the PRC? What would happen to CapitaMalls Asia?

Another point, since the Singapore government does not use interest rate to control inflation and if an increase in interest rate could be a bad thing instead as it encourages more hot money inflow, what would be the interest rates be like in Singapore for the next 12 months?

To both sets of questions, I have answers. However, seeing that my formal education in Economics ceased at "A" Levels, I shall not reveal what I think. I could be wrong, of course.

I think I need something bracing after this heavy blogging. Tieh Kuan Yin, anybody?

CapitaMalls Asia: Borrowing on the cheap.

On 6 Jan, this was reported on Channel News Asia:

"...CMA will issue $200 million worth of retail bonds.

It aims to raise $100 million by selling one-year bonds, which will pay 1 per cent interest.

The remainder will be raised by issuing 3-year bonds, which carry an annual interest rate of 2.15 percent.

The minimum sum that a retail investor needs to invest is $2,000.

...... Experts say bonds of highly rated corporates are an attractive investment, compared with government bonds.

One-year Singapore government bonds currently yield 0.4 percent annually.

Wilson Liew, an investment analyst, said the bond issuance should have little influence on CMA's performance.

"If you look at the quantum of the bonds, it is not large compared to the total size of the business," said Mr Liew.

CMA has retail properties worth $21.6 billion in its portfolio.

"They are making use of low interest rate environment to raise some money but they are lowly geared anyway so raising money isn't so difficult," added Mr Liew."

On 21 Jan, it was reported that the offer was approximately 1.82 times subscribed. Read report here.

Cheap debt is a good thing for a growing business. I am sure the management of CapitaMalls Asia will put the money to good use. Fundamentally, this company is in a net cash position and has predictable cash flow from its management business while divesting mature shopping malls to the REITs it manages could result in attractive gains periodically. I am looking forward to stronger numbers in the future.

Technically, I have not looked at the weekly chart for this counter before. Let's take a look:

The candlesticks are detaching from the lower Bollinger and we could see price moving towards the 20wMA which is currently at $2.06. There is still a downward bias but I like the higher lows on the MFI and RSI. Both momentum oscillators are still in oversold territories and this situation could be corrected sooner than later. 

We cannot say that we are surely seeing a reversal at this stage but a rebound to the 20wMA is not unattainable and could result in some decent gains for anyone buying at the trendline support which approximates $1.90 currently. I am, of course, vested.

A Chinese government think tank has forecast the nation's economy will grow around 9.8 per cent this year, with inflation likely to come in at 3.7 per cent, state media reported Sunday. Experts at the Chinese Academy of Sciences also predicted that gross domestic product would rev up in the latter part of the year, and would be driven largely by domestic consumption, the official China News Service said. Read article here.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Pulling back on low volume.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Worried?

A friend told me that a friend of his is desperate for reassurance regarding her investment in this REIT. Reassurance? I was baffled why his friend needs reassurance. Then, he explained that it is because there were massive sell downs at 21.5c in recent sessions, yesterday inclusive.

I told my friend I was happy that there was a sell down yesterday because my overnight BUY queue at 21.5c was filled.  Well, his friend's overnight BUY queue was filled too at 21.5c but she's worried now. I find that mind boggling. We put in an overnight BUY queue in the hope that it would be filled and when it was filled, we worry? Something is wrong here. I think popping the champagne could be overdoing it but some happiness is more appropriate, don't you think?

A quick look at the daily chart shows immediate support at 21.5c. The MFI is still uptrending and is now testing resistance at 50%. The confluence of 20d, 50d and 100d MAs at 22c makes this price level a strong resistance. What is the chance of this resistance being taken out?

Let us take a look at the weekly chart for clues on the longer term trend. The trend is obviously still up. If we think of the white candle formed in the week of 13 Sep, could we be seeing the formation of a flag? Is price consolidating before moving up further?

Now, look at the Bollinger Bands and they are definitely narrowing. So? Volatility is reducing which supports the idea that price is consolidating. Will price go up or down? An educated guess is that it is more likely to go up than to go down because the upcoming DPU is likely to increase over the last one by a large margin. Numbers are likely to improve and we will know for sure next week when the results are announced on the 25th (Tuesday).

Does this mean that price would not weaken at all in the meantime? Who can say for sure? However, in view of the fact that the REIT is on a longer term uptrend and that the rising 50wMA is at 21c, I have already put in a BUY order at 21c and if this price level was ever tested, I hope my BUY order could be filled.  At 21c and an estimated DPU of 2c per year, that is a distribution yield of 9.52%.

Finally, someone told me that his broker advised him against investing in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT because it has been losing money for years. I find this baffling as the REIT is only slightly more than a year old since the old MI-REIT was recapitalised.

Looking at the last quarterly report, we see positive net income and positive cash flow. MI-REIT is a thing of the past, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is a much stronger outfit and I am putting my money where my mouth is.

See 2Q FY2011 Unaudited Financial Results here.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Sell down at 21.5c.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Revised DPU and fair value.

First REIT: FY2010 results.

1. Projected DPU for FY2011 remains at 6.4c.

2. NAV/unit as at 31 Dec 2010 is 77c.

3. Gearing in 2011 at 17.25%.

DPU is lower for 4Q FY2010 at 0.87c "due to the issuance of 345,664,382 Rights Units on 31 December2010 in relation to the acquisition of Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre and Siloam Hospitals LippoCikarang. These new rights units are entitled to participate in the 4Q 2010 distribution. If the new rights units issued on 31 December 2010 are excluded in the computation, the adjusted distribution per unit would have been 1.96 cents."

New properties will start contributing to earnings and distributions in 2011. Expecting the DPU for 1Q FY2011 to be 1.6c, therefore.

4Q FY2010 DPU of 0.87c will be payable on 28 Feb 2011.

See presentation slides here.

See report by OCBC Investment Research here.

We believe that FREIT’s current valuations are still compelling, boosted by its attractive yield (estimated yield of 8.3% in FY11F). Future growth will be supported by its stable master lease terms, which has downside revenue protection and built-in step-up rental features. We continue to like FREIT’s strong sponsor support as well as management’s execution capabilities. Maintain BUY with a revised RNAV-derived fair value estimate of S$0.82 (total returns of 15.5%) as we incorporate the latest figures into our assumptions.

Related post:
First REIT: Simply amazing.

Golden Agriculture and First Resources.

Golden Agriculture is closing in on the 100dMA as it ended the day at 71c today on high volume. We could very well see the support provided by the 100dMA tested at 70c in the next session. If it should break, next support could be found at 66c where the rising 200dEMA would be approximating soon.  The 200dEMA, being a long term MA, should be able to provide a much stronger support in case of further decline in price.

The MACD is falling in negative territory. Both MFI and RSI are also declining in overbought territories. The OBV shows clear distribution ongoing. The time to buy some shares in Golden Agriculture could be near.

First Resources declined with a vengeance yesterday on extremely high volume but volume dried up today as price declined another 4c. Could price decline further next week? It certainly could but with volume drying up, drastic price decline similar to what was witnessed yesterday is less likely to happen again.

For anyone thinking of initiating a long position in the counter, the 100dEMA at $1.38 and the 100dMA at $1.35, if tested, could be nice entry prices.

See analysis by DBS Group Research here.

First Resources drop a buying opportunity. Major shareholder Eight Capital sells 75 million ordinary shares and Citigroup places 15 million treasury shares held by the company at $1.48 each.
Thursday, 20 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Looking to the 100dMA.

Raffles Education: A new property play?

Raffles Education's recent stellar performance in the stock market is now explained. It "has identified a property developer in Singapore to co-develop the Oriental University City (OUC) land to monetise its SGD394m investment in the university city." Read article in Next Insight here. This development is unexpected and could also explain the constant insider buying of the company's shares in the last few months.

Technically,the OBV indicates that accumulation is ongoing while the MFI and RSI are in overbought territories. Although in extremely bullish situations, they could remain overbought for a long while, it is wise to stay cautious and not chase the price higher.

The 200dMA has flattened at 30.5c and it could be resistance turned support. Of course, it would be nice if this could be confirmed if a correction in price happens.

I have fully divested my smallish investment in Raffles Education and extend my best wishes to all who are still vested.

Raffles Education +4.7%; BNP bullish; keeps Buy rating on the stock with a $0.33 target. $0.350 is likely the near-term cap.
Friday, 21 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Raffles Education: Broke resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia: Pulling back on low volume.

I bought more shares of CapitaMalls Asia today at $1.91 as its share price retreated to test its support at $1.90. I like the picture which is forming which suggests a low volume pull back taking place.

With a sell signal appearing on the MACD histogram and the MACD still in negative territory, although it has been rising above the signal line, one could not be faulted for staying cautious. Look at the RSI and it is clear that the trendline support is broken. However, look at the MFI which takes in not just price but volume as well, support is just being tested.

Whether the uptrend support at $1.90 holds up is important for the counter in the near future. If it breaks, the nascent uptrend is in jeopardy and I would turn cautious  If it holds up, price could bounce off and move higher. With the rising 20dMA on course to meet the falling 50dMA, expect some volatility but the technicals do have an upward bias for now and a golden cross is in the works.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: A sustainable reversal?

Golden Agriculture: Looking to the 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture's share price continues to weaken with a gap down today forming a wickless black candle on heavy volume. Price closed at 74c which seems to be a relatively strong support in the immediate future. Some asked if I would consider buying in at 74c. I don't think so.

Of course, price could rebound after a hard sell down. The RSI has entered the oversold region with the MFI just bordering on oversold. However, look at the OBV which shows sharp distribution and this could continue as the MACD dipped into negative territory. If a rebound happens, it would probably do a gap cover to 76c where it would meet with resistance.

On 15 January, I asked "How low could the price fall to? No one can say for sure but drawing a trendline support linking the lows of 30 Sep and 8 Oct coincides with the rising 100dMA and, to me, this suggests a much stronger support at this level and would be a more ideal entry point. The 100dMA is currently at 68.5c." The 100dMA is closing in on 70c and that is when I might consider adding to my long position if there are clearer signs to do so, not sooner.

Golden Agri down on J.P. Morgan report
Thursday, 20 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Short term uptrend broken.

Saizen REIT: Retesting 18c resistance.

Today, Saizen REIT started the day at 18c per unit but in the late afternoon, a single transaction of 3 million units was sold down at 17c before price recovered and closed at 17.5c. This formed a black candle with a lower wick. Immediate support remains at 17c and the rising 20dMA as well as the trendline support suggest that this could be a strong support.

The RSI has declined but remains in overbought region. The MFI has broken its uptrend and falls towards 50% which could act as a support. No sign of distribution on the OBV. Overall, the situation is rather benign and there is support. 18c remains the resistance to watch. It remains the ideal price at which to reduce exposure, being the high of 2010 and likely to remain strong in the memories of market participants.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Attracting some big money?

FSL Trust: 4QFY10 results.

I have been divesting my stake in FSL Trust as its unit price strengthened in recent weeks. The last time I sold some was at 48c on 7 January, less than a fortnight ago. Then, I said "My long position in FSL is for a trade and the entry was not based on fundamentals, which are lacking. So, reducing my long position, locking in gains at resistance and at signs of weakening demand, at least partially, is prudent although it could limit gains in case of further price appreciation."

Despite what the management says, the Trust's numbers are really weak as it reported its results today and the following should cause some concern:

1. Reduction in net cash from operations which reduced year on year by 19.6% and quarter on quarter by 7.8%.

2. A full year net loss of US$5.67million whereas it registered a profit of US$8.42million the year before.

3. A loan tranche maturing in April 2012.

See Press Release here.

Technically, volume has been rising as price stayed in a tight trading range between 47c and 47.5c mostly. 48c was only tested in three sessions. Today, volume was very thin as a BUY signal appeared on the MACD histogram. The 20dMA has been rising and is now at 47c while the 50d and 100d MAs are rising to meet the declining 200dMA. Golden crosses in the making? Perhaps. The MFI, however, has turned down after hitting 50% which acted as resistance. The overall picture is one which suggests further upside in the current time frame could be limited.

FSL Trust released its results after 8pm tonight. So, it remains to be seen how the market would react tomorrow. If the support provided by the 20dMA at 47c should break, stronger support could be found at 45c which is where the 50d, 100d and 200d MAs are approximating. I would sell into strength and 48c is the resistance to watch.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Sold some at 48c.

Raffles Education: Broke resistance.

A spectacular breakout today with a 3c or 10% gain for Raffles Education! A wickless white candle was formed on this up day although it was preceded in the previous two sessions by a spinning top and a doji, both potential reversal signals. So, the resistance at 30c so decisively taken out today was as surprising as it was spectacular.

Buy signal is spotted on the MACD histogram while the MFI and RSI remain in overbought territories. OBV shows a spike in accumulation. Question: Could the price go much higher? I see the next resistance at 34c which was the high of 12 July 2010. The current price of 33c is also a strong resistance as provided by the 150% Fibo line and if 33c were taken out, 34c is most likely attainable.

Raffles Education: Acquisition of Merchant Square. Fair value estimate decreases marginally from S$0.285 to S$0.28 (still based on 18x FY11F EPS). Maintain HOLD. Read research article here.

Related post:
Raffles Education: 200dMA resistance again.

Courage Marine: Retreating to support.

Yesterday, I mentioned that "Looking at the chart, immediate support is currently at 21c although it seems precarious as MFI and RSI spiked into overbought regions. Any weakness could see the counter pulling back to 20c which offers a stronger support and would correct the overbought condition."

The excitement that came with the prospect of dual listing by the counter petered out quickly as price formed a wickless black candle and closed at 20.5c today, just 1 bid shy of the 20c support I mentioned. Looking at the buy queue which formed at 20c, it does look like it would be a strong support.

With both the MFI and RSI exiting their overbought regions, we could see the overbought condition corrected very soon. We could see the MFI retest its uptrend support which means that volume and price could fall further in the meantime.

20c support could indeed be tested sooner than later while 19c is where we find a clustering of the MAs and that is where we would find the strongest support in case of severe weakness.

CIMB downgrades bulk shipping to "underweight". Read article here.

Source:
Bloomberg, CIMB Research.

Related post:
Courage Marine: Dual listing.

Saizen REIT: Attracting some big money?

Some big player seems to have taken an interest in Saizen REIT today. In a single transaction, 1.5m units were bought up at 17.5c per unit while 2.418m warrants were bought up at 8.5c each, setting the tone for the rest of the session.

I have some friends and readers who asked me if it is too late to go long on this REIT. Well, I might not be the best person to ask because I have been vested in this REIT for more than a year and at unit prices 16.5c and lower that I do not feel inclined to add to my long position at the current prices. However, I will try to be objective here.

The 100dMA continues to rise towards the 200dMA and seems on track to forming a true golden cross in time. The MACD continues to rise above the signal line in positive territory. OBV shows continual accumulation. The RSI is overbought but the MFI is not. This suggests that price has moved up too quickly but overall demand is still moderate. The upmove in price has not been accompanied by any crazy expansion in volume which suggests that a sharp pullback is unlikely.

The uptrend that started on 17 Dec is still strong. The rising 20dMA, in fact, approximates the trendline support. So, it is my opinion that this trendline support should be a strong one. As accumulating at supports in an uptrend is the thing to do, for anyone who wants to go long here, such a support is to be found at 17c in the near term.

For anyone who is thinking of selling into strength, the high of 14 Jan 2010 should be the resistance to watch. Selling at resistance is conventional wisdom. Of course, if resistance should break, more upside is likely and resistance could become support. When in doubt, hedge. Sell a portion, big or small is up to you and keep the rest, just in case.

Fundamentally, I believe the fair value of this REIT is closer to 19c and, if YK Shintoku's CMBS were to be successfully refinanced, the fair value would be closer to 20c.  These values assume that the warrants are fully exercised and they are what I think the REIT is worth. What Mr. Market thinks could be quite different.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Golden crosses.
Saizen REIT: Steady.
Email exchange with a reader on some REITs.

K-Green Trust: Results for year ended Dec 2010.

Here are the highlights:

1. Profit after tax for the period from date of listing on 29 June to 31 December 2010 was $8.7 million, 22.1% higher than forecast.

2. Earnings per unit (EPU) for the period from date of listing to 31 December 2010 were 1.39 cents.

3. Net asset value per unit as at 31 December 2010 was $1.16.
 

4. Distribution per unit (DPU) of 4.31 cents was higher than forecast by 10.2%.
 

5. Annualised distribution yield was 7.9% based on unit closing price of $1.07 on 31 December 2010.

Full report here.

Some readers might remember an earlier blog post in which I questioned if K-Green Trust was a bad investment. In that post, I said "If it could land lucrative acquisitions with cheap debt, we could also see it reducing its payout ratio and keeping cash for asset renewal purposes. To think of KGT as a static business trust with no growth opportunities could be rather short sighted.  Why? Because it has zero gearing unlike CitySpring Infrastructure Trust." This is still a valid assumption but the Trust has yet to announce any such plans.

DPU of 4.31c will be paid out on 10 March 2011. This probably explains the bump up in the Trust's unit price to $1.10 today, forming a wickless white candle in the process. The buy signal on the MACD histogram yesterday has been confirmed. Drawing some Fibo lines suggests that further upside could meet with stronger resistance at $1.13. Is this attainable? The MFI has formed a higher low and further upside from $1.10 is probable.

Related post:
K-Green Trust: A bad investment?

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Land acquisition by SLA.

Cambridge Industrial Trust Management Limited, the Manager of Cambridge Industrial Trust (“CIT”) (“the Company”) wishes to announce that it has received a formal notice from Singapore Land Authority (“SLA”) on 11 January 2011 with regard to the compulsory acquisition of land on Tuas Road, Pioneer Road, Tuas West Road, Tuas West Drive and Tuas South Avenue 3 for the construction of Tuas West Mass Rapid Transit (“MRT”) extension and road works along the Pan Island Expressway, Tuas Road, Pioneer Road, Tuas West Road, Tuas West Drive and Tuas South Avenue 3.

Based on the Company’s initial assessment, three of CIT’s 43 properties will be affected to varying degrees by this land acquisition:

1) 30 Tuas Road (Lot No 1289X pt Mukim 7)
2) 120 Pioneer Road (Lot No 3237M pt Mukim 7); and
3) 1 Tuas Avenue 3 (Lot 1422X Mukim 7)
 
All or part of the land where these properties are situated will be possessed by the Government by January 2013.

Read announcement here.

Related post:
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Equity fund raising again.
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Fails to deliver.